Is the Recession Really Over? Experts Declare End in June 2009

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the declaration by experts that the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009. Participants explore the implications of this announcement, the definitions of recession, and differing perspectives on the current state of the economy, including unemployment rates and GDP growth. The conversation includes references to historical discussions about recession and the criteria used to define it.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that the Great Recession was declared over in June 2009, despite ongoing economic struggles.
  • One participant argues that a recession is defined by economic contraction, suggesting that extreme scenarios could still yield positive growth metrics.
  • Another participant recalls a previous discussion about the recession's status, indicating that the current conversation may reflect a positive shift in economic sentiment.
  • Data is presented showing a significant drop in GDP growth in early 2009, with corrections noted regarding the timing of reported growth figures.
  • Some participants express skepticism about the end of the recession, citing high unemployment rates as evidence that economic recovery has not been felt by the average person.
  • Warren Buffett's assertion that the recession continues is cited, with some participants expressing support for his viewpoint while others criticize his definitions and reasoning.
  • Concerns are raised about the accuracy and consistency of the National Bureau of Economic Research's (NBER) criteria for defining the start and end of recessions.
  • Participants discuss the implications of stock market performance, such as the Dow breaking 11,000, in the context of ongoing unemployment and job losses.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants exhibit a range of views, with no consensus on whether the recession is truly over. While some accept the NBER's declaration, others, including notable figures like Warren Buffett, argue that economic conditions still reflect a recessionary state.

Contextual Notes

Participants reference differing definitions of recession, the impact of GDP revisions, and the implications of unemployment statistics, indicating a complex and nuanced understanding of economic recovery that remains unresolved.

  • #31
Astronuc said:
Since things are going so well with the economy, just like they were in 2007 and 2008, I sure some can appreciate that - Food stamps keep climbing

Food stamps now cost the government $5.6 billion per month, as more and more people sign up for the benefit.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Paper-Economy/2010/1009/Food-stamps-keep-climbing

Christian Science?
 
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  • #32
Norman.Galois said:
Christian Science?

Don't let the name fool you; the Christian Science Monitor is a respected organization that holds itself to a high standard of journalism. In my opinion o:).
 
  • #33
lisab said:
Yes, that was the thread - thanks, Russ.

Oh. I feel terrible. I didn't realize https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=2145226&postcount=1384".

But anyways, I'm still of the opinion that government spending is trivial in the face of pandemic of fear that has people hoarding their money like Hetty Green.

usconsumerspending2008thru2010.gif


If anyone thinks the nation should be doing just fine with a 40% reduction in consumer spending, well, let's just say I think you need your head examined.

I think I'll go shopping tomorrow.

ps. My stocks finished the week in the black. First time since https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=2708391&postcount=261".
I'm ahead 22 cents! Woo Hoo!
 
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  • #34
russ_watters said:
Just to make sure everyone sees it when you're trying to interpret what that graph means, note the difference in the two scales: Both the starting value and in the increment.

Well, it's really not very exciting if you don't stretch things out a bit.

govtvspvtemploymentinSeptember2000thru2010.jpg

Government vs Private employment in the months of September from 2000 through 2010, in millions.

A bit more exciting is the percentage change from one year to the next:
percentagechangegovtvspvtsept2000to2010.jpg

The far left green and blue bars represent the change in employment from Sept 2000 through Sept 2001, etc to 2009 through 2010 on the far right.

Actually, except for the big dip in private employment between Sept 2008 and Sept 2009, it's fairly boring also. Unless 1 or 2% changes per year make you feel like you're on a roller coaster.

:zzz:

ref: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ce": Total Private Employment - CES0500000001 & Government Employment - CES9000000001
 
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  • #35
Something to keep in mind for the future:
Now, as the United States and other Western nations struggle to recover from a debt and property bubble of their own, a growing number of economists are pointing to Japan as a dark vision of the future. Even as the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, prepares a fresh round of unconventional measures to stimulate the economy, there are growing fears that the United States and many European economies could face a prolonged period of slow growth or even, in the worst case, deflation, something not seen on a sustained basis outside Japan since the Great Depression.

. . . .
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/world/asia/17japan.html

We could start an new thread - What is still wrong with the US economy? Pretty much the same as 3 or 4 years ago. Too much debt, too much uncovered liabilities, insufficient savings, insufficient generation of wealth, chronic government deficits, chronic trade deficits, too much reliance on foreign energy sources, . . . .

One possible trajectory for the US economy -

Hard-hit British heartland braces for cuts
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101016/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_britain_bracing_for_cuts
 
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  • #36
Anyone thinking we are out of the woods just needs to turn off CNN and take a look around outside.
 

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