Discussion Overview
The discussion revolves around the declaration by experts that the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009. Participants explore the implications of this announcement, the definitions of recession, and differing perspectives on the current state of the economy, including unemployment rates and GDP growth. The conversation includes references to historical discussions about recession and the criteria used to define it.
Discussion Character
- Debate/contested
- Exploratory
- Technical explanation
Main Points Raised
- Some participants note that the Great Recession was declared over in June 2009, despite ongoing economic struggles.
- One participant argues that a recession is defined by economic contraction, suggesting that extreme scenarios could still yield positive growth metrics.
- Another participant recalls a previous discussion about the recession's status, indicating that the current conversation may reflect a positive shift in economic sentiment.
- Data is presented showing a significant drop in GDP growth in early 2009, with corrections noted regarding the timing of reported growth figures.
- Some participants express skepticism about the end of the recession, citing high unemployment rates as evidence that economic recovery has not been felt by the average person.
- Warren Buffett's assertion that the recession continues is cited, with some participants expressing support for his viewpoint while others criticize his definitions and reasoning.
- Concerns are raised about the accuracy and consistency of the National Bureau of Economic Research's (NBER) criteria for defining the start and end of recessions.
- Participants discuss the implications of stock market performance, such as the Dow breaking 11,000, in the context of ongoing unemployment and job losses.
Areas of Agreement / Disagreement
Participants exhibit a range of views, with no consensus on whether the recession is truly over. While some accept the NBER's declaration, others, including notable figures like Warren Buffett, argue that economic conditions still reflect a recessionary state.
Contextual Notes
Participants reference differing definitions of recession, the impact of GDP revisions, and the implications of unemployment statistics, indicating a complex and nuanced understanding of economic recovery that remains unresolved.