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Mathematics
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What is the correct expectation value for this game with redraw?
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[QUOTE="StoneTemplePython, post: 6017335, member: 613025"] I'm not sure what this means. I've confirmed that ## 0.1*0.8*0.5*0.3*0.2*1250 \text{(tokens)} = 3 \text{tokens} ## and I don't see an expectation in the neighborhood of 1 anywhere? I'd strongly suggest sticking with the model you original specified and flushing out the details in it -- for starters what exactly is this issue you're speaking of? It seems premature to complicate the model at this point and add a bunch of different calculations and scenarios -- the main idea is to figure out what a fair game 'looks like'. Again, what is the issue with the simple game you outline in the original post? My view is you should be drawing a tree (or possibly a directed graph), recognize that you need to price each branch at fair value, and make sure you are doing this correctly. Once this is pinned down, it should be straightforward to add more features/ branches later on as you see fit. [/QUOTE]
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What is the correct expectation value for this game with redraw?
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