Gokul43201 said:
Do you believe the derivatives market was also over-regulated? And would you say it played little/no role in the financial collapse?
I am by no means any expert on the financial crisis, but I have noticed that one could fill an entire shelf with books on the subject and
still wouldn't have a full understanding of the subject.
But from what I have been able to glean, the financial crisis was/is a very complex thing whose causes began long ago, and which was caused by a great many different variables. Arguments such as, "The free-market caused it!" or "The government caused it!" or the Democrats' favorite line: "Bush did it," I think are over-simplifying what is a very complex topic.
One thing I've noticed with the hard Left is they will emphasize how complex our economic problems are right now, and that there are no simple solutions to them. However, when it comes to the
cause of this very complex problem, their default answer is "Bush did it" or "Reagan did it" or "the free market did it." No acknowledgment that just as there are no simple solutions, the cause itself cannot be boiled down into a simple soundbite answer either.
IMO, I think both ends of the spectrum are correct to a degree. In some areas, there did seem to be too little government. In other areas, too much government.
For example, you had the Community Reinvestment Act and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which certainly played a role in the crisis. However, you also had, as pointed out in the quote above (I believe), a fairly unregulated derivatives market.
There was the element of greedy mortgage lenders, greedy mortgage borrowers, and also the Federal Reserve itself messed up as well it seems with too easy a monetary policy.
The rating agencies also failed spectacularly, giving AAA ratings to the securities that were really junk, thus investors and institutions all bought them.
There was a complete misunderstanding of risk analysis which makes one wonder if regulation would have even worked. I mean Wall Street itself didn't realize the risk it was taking on. If Wall Street itself couldn't recognize the risk, how could underpaid government regulators? And with the recent porn scandal of the SEC, we could probably say the SEC failed to a degree as well. Wired magazine ran an article a few years back in which they point out that a 2002 Senate study showed that the SEC is only able to review about 40% of the information it gets from the regulations. Enron hadn't been reviewed in ten years, according to the article. If that's the case, then how would more regulation have helped?
Everyone thought the system had advanced enough to spread risk out to an enormous degree, and allocate capital very accurately (and to a degree this was true, as the risk was spread amongst the national mortgage market, which had never collapsed before).
A big problem was that while spreading the risk amongst the national mortgage market, they were using mortgages that were ultimately junk. They were not creating securities made up of sound mortgages from around the nation, which really would have been secure (as a few mortgages here and there could fail, and a bubble in real-estate could form in certain areas here and there occassionally, but securities made up of mortgages from around the nation should be secure); instead, they were using mortgages that were far more junk than sound, but they didn't realize it.
Due to bad monetary policy and bad government policy, a housing bubble developed, and then when it burst, all things went haywire.
To blame this crisis solely on "excessive government" or "too little regulation" is oversimplifying the issue.
For example, look at the 2000 legislation signed by Bill Clinton, the Financial Services Modernization Act, that removed the decades-long barrier between investment banks and commercial banks. Some say removing this barrier helped cause the crisis. Others point out that Europe never had such a barrier and they didn't have such a crisis, and also that without it, it would have been illegal for institutions like Bank of America when it bought Merill-Lynch and Countrywide Financial.
Some big questions I have noticed about fixing the financial system are these:
1) Regulation: As shown above, if the SEC can't keep track of information from current regulations, how will more regulations help?
One thing I have read is that the securities created these days by the financial industry are so complex and sophisticated, that by the time regulators wrap their heads around one security, a multitude of new ones have been created. Some say we should then stop this ultra-speedy innovation with a law or something. Opponents say this would severely hamstring our financial industry and economy overall, as constant innovation is required in the financial industry. OTOH, do we continue to let such innovation occur until the next crisis?
2) Big financial institutions: Some say we should break them up, so they are not too big to fail anymore. Opponents say that this would make them too small to service the needs of American corporations and businesses however, and make American businesses dependent on foreign financial firms.
So what is the answer then? Break them up? Regulate them heavily? If we subject them to heavy regulation as a result of being too big to fail, they will bring in armies of lobbyists to make sure the regulations are written to benefit them, and hurt the smaller banks and financial institutions. How do we prevent that?
Is there a way to break them up where they are no longer too big to fail, but still large enough to service the needs of American business?