Australia Possibly Heading For 95% Vaccination

[bhobba]

See:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09...er-cent-first-covid-19-vaccine-rate/100489618

As the article says, Aus could get to 95%. 90% won't be hard; 95% would be a real achievement, but it is possible. I don't think anyone is sure exactly what will happen at that high a vaccination percentage. My GP thinks herd immunity is possible. Me, I am not so sure. What do others think? If achieved, of course, it will be a big plus.

Thanks
Bill

 

[phinds]

Australia Possibly Heading For 95% Vaccination​

No, definitely not. New South Wales apparently is, according to the article, but NSW is NOT "Australia". Figures vary for the whole country but the highest I've seen is 50% and I don't think anyone believes that the country as a whole will ever get to 95%.

Here's one showing 42%

And here's one showing that they have 50% and hope to get to 70%

 

[bhobba]

New South Wales apparently is, according to the article, but NSW is NOT "Australia".

Indeed. The issue is will Australia, in general, do what NSW did. QLD has said it may wait until 90% before reducing restrictions. But I have to say restrictions in QLD are not onerous - NSW was/has a powerful lockdown and at one time over 1500 cases per day - QLD on occasion just a couple, but mostly zero. The citizenry in NSW was/is much more incentivised.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Melbourne Guy]

It's useful to note that here, "Australia" excludes younger people, so using the NSW example from the article as representative of such reporting generally:

NSW is on track to have 90 per cent of its population aged 16 and over vaccinated with a first dose of a COVID-19 shot by next month.

But while we're generally socially compliant Down Under, there does seem to be considerable vaccine hesitancy - the messaging around AstraZeneca did not help there - that may limit the upper bound of vaccination.

Melbourne Institute has a hesitancy tracker that puts the overall figure around 15% (it ebbs and flows and depends on where people live) and possibly it will drop as unvaccinated people are constrained in their behaviour, and hesitancy does not necessarily mean outright rejection of vaccination, but 95% does seem unlikely.

https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-insights/ttpn/vaccination-report

 

[russ_watters]

As the article says, Aus could get to 95%. 90% won't be hard; 95% would be a real achievement, but it is possible.

Article:

NSW is on track to have 90 per cent of its population aged 16 and over vaccinated with a first dose of a COVID-19 shot by next month.

And by November, 110%!

The article is pretty much nonsense/useless. What we found in the US (and I suspect other countries found the same thing) is that those who wanted to be vaccinated got vaccinated and then those who didn't, didn't. The rate of vaccinations can tell you approximately when you could reach that ceiling but tells you nothing at all about where that ceiling is. Vaccine hesitancy polls may provide some predictive power.

After you hit that ceiling, then you can start wearing-down those left.

Looking at the data for all of Australia, it's pretty linear; currently at 63%, rising by 18% per month. If the uptake is high, you'll find out in November where that ceiling is.

 

[PeroK]

Article:And by November, 110%!

The article is pretty much nonsense/useless. What we found in the US (and I suspect other countries found the same thing) is that those who wanted to be vaccinated got vaccinated and then those who didn't, didn't. The rate of vaccinations can tell you approximately when you could reach that ceiling but tells you nothing at all about where that ceiling is. Vaccine hesitancy polls may provide some predictive power.

After you hit that ceiling, then you can start wearing-down those left.

Looking at the data for all of Australia, it's pretty linear; currently at 63%, rising by 18% per month. If the uptake is high, you'll find out in November where that ceiling is.

In terms of total population, the UK has reached only 71% and the USA only 63%, despite our flying starts in the vaccination programme. These numbers have been pretty flat for months now. Meanwhile, Portugal has reached 88%, Spain 80% and Denmark 77%. The UK has been overtaken by much of Europe now, which is mainly due to our reluctance to vaccinate children.

 

[mfb]

So far Australia is still on a good track. No sign of slow-down at 66% (of the total population) with at least one dose. We'll see where that point will be. For first doses it already overtook the US, it's about to overtake Germany, and it could overtake the UK somewhat soon, too. Same for Japan, except that it already reached the 72% of the UK. Globally we are getting closer to the 50% milestone.

Naturally full vaccinations are about a month behind.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

 

[bhobba]

So far Australia is still on a good track.

Sure is. We have just reached 80% first dose over 16. But the one that got me was on September the 13th; they started giving it to 12-15-year-olds. Already nearly 50% first dose. As I said in another thread - And the children will show us the way. I am confident we will reach 90% double dose 12 and over. I still am hopeful of 95%+. Why it looks like we could do better than Germany beats me.

Thanks
Bill

 

[mfb]

Germany's vaccination capacity has exceeded demand since late July, so everyone who wants to get a vaccine can do that without booking an appointment far in advance. We now send vaccines to other countries, with a goal of 100 million (~1.3/capita) by the end of the year.

It is possible that the official numbers underestimate the actual fraction of vaccinated people. If you ask people in surveys you get significantly higher numbers than the official statistics, but of course that's self-reported and comes with other biases.

 

[bhobba]

Germany's vaccination capacity has exceeded demand since late July, so everyone who wants to get a vaccine can do that without booking an appointment far in advance.

Recently the same here in Aus. It was also true before, but people were turned off by the 1 in a million risk of dying from AZ, so it just stockpiled up. It took a while for Australia to secure more Pfizer and some Moderna vaccines, so the supply of what people wanted exceeded demand. The AZ has not been desired - it has been sent to our pacific neighbours. We also have 51 million doses of Novavax coming, as well as 81 million of Pfizer and a trickling of Moderna. Some think Novavax will be the best booster vaccine, but only time will tell. We already know Pfizer is a good booster. Moderna wants to build a manufacturing plant here. Australia is becoming awash with vaccines and will supply countries in the pacific region.

Added Later:
ACT where I used to live now at over 95% and climbing. NSW nearly 90%.

Thanks
Bill

 

[atyy]

https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/coronavirus/vaccine-tracker/
It matters where the doses are concentrated. Vaccinating young people doesn't count as much as vaccinating the elderly for reducing severe illness and death. Australia has given first doses to >93% of those aged 60+. It's looking good, hope you get it as close to 100% as possible. I think concerns about the rural areas and indigenous peoples remains.

Singapore made the mistake of advertising its 83% population vaccination rate as among the best in the world. Yet for those aged 70+, its first dose vaccination rate was 88% in early September, at a time when the USA was estimated to have 92% first dose coverage of those aged 65+. Bill Hanage was probably writing about the US, but his comment applies well to Singapore "It is frustrating that those places that want to claim the pandemic has receded are frequently those with poor vaccination rates in the most vulnerable age groups. As a result the sense of an ending is likely to meet a rude awakening".

 

[bhobba]

From my local newspaper today, the Courier-Mail:
'Vaccine Qld: First Nations communities may stay locked down.'

Their vaccination rate is not good enough to open up. The conjecture is they have been sending nurses/doctors around to vaccinate the community. However, it was with the police. That is thought to scare many first nations people. They are going to try using tribal elders instead of police. Why they would be scared of authority is too political for discussion here.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

The ACT has done it - 99% 12 and over now vaccinated:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/austr...k-to-become-most-vaccinated-city-in-the-world

One can only hope other Australian states learn what Canberra did and duplicate it. Where I am, Queensland is about 71% - below the Australian average of 83% (that is over 16 - but the 12 to 15 age group is catching up fast - could even be caught up by now like in the ACT). As per my previous post, Queensland has many Aboriginal communities with low vaccination rates, which obviously is an issue.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Just out of curiosity, people may be interested in the newly announced restrictions where I live in Queensland. At the moment, about 72.5% are vaccinated with the first dose.

When 70% are fully vaccinated (estimated November 19), entry requirements are:

Fully vaccinated
Arrive by air
Have a negative Covid test in the 72-hours before travel
Undertake home quarantine for 14 days

When 80% are fully vaccinated (estimated December 17), entry requirements are:

Travellers can arrive by air or road
Must be fully vaccinated
Have a negative Covid test in the 72-hours before travel
No quarantine required

When 90% are fully vaccinated (no estimated date):

All may enter. Unvaccinated must quarantine for 14 days.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Australia has done it - nearly 90% of the population over 12 first japed and increasing. It is thought we will eventually hit 95%+. That will be amazing.
https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/australia-surges-past-uk-israel-us-in-vaccine-roll

We were a basket case vaccination wise. Now we are surging to very high rates of vaccination.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Melbourne Guy]

Just out of curiosity, people may be interested in the newly announced restrictions where I live in Queensland. At the moment, about 72.5% are vaccinated with the first dose.

I am still wondering why QLD has not been hit by Covid like we have been elsewhere Down Under, @bhobba. I worked for a company with a Brisbane HQ, and when I went up earlier this year, it was "Covid? What covid?"

It can't be climate, because other places with similar weather have seen the virus run rampant. It might be population density, but BrisVegas and the Cold Coast are cities typical of many others where Covid has clubbed the populace into lockdown. And I doubt it is behaviour, social distancing was desultory from what I saw.

Any ideas?

 

[bhobba]

Any ideas?

Our Premier has many controversial policies. But their general effect is when breakouts occur, they are stamped down on hard. Victoria did the same thing, but compliance was the issue. Many cases in Victoria occurred in family clusters, even when the family members were in different locations. They broke quartine rules. Basically, despite the mandates from the Premier, the compliance was not as good as in Queensland. The bottom line is in Queensland, people have good compliance, Victoria does not. But eventually, it will come to Queensland in a big way - the only hope is we get high enough vaccination rates - i.e. similar to NSW's 95% over 12 by then. NSW had thousands a day - but with high vaccination rates dropped to a bit over 100. However, in NSW, R has risen to 1.15, and there is now a couple of hundred cases a day. They reopened a bit too quickly, and further moderate restrictions are likely needed. After all, an R of 1.15 is flu territory - in fact, at the lower end. Fine-tuning the exact restrictions necessary to keep daily cases low will take a bit of time.

As Australia continues with its vaccinations, and more get the third dose, and we start perhaps to vaccinate over fives, things will get better still. Eventually, we will likely need very few restrictions, and things will be pretty normal. It all hinges on a high vaccination rate and extending it to 5 and over.

Thanks
Bill

 

[PeroK]

I am still wondering why QLD has not been hit by Covid like we have been elsewhere Down Under, @bhobba. I worked for a company with a Brisbane HQ, and when I went up earlier this year, it was "Covid? What covid?"

It can't be climate, because other places with similar weather have seen the virus run rampant. It might be population density, but BrisVegas and the Cold Coast are cities typical of many others where Covid has clubbed the populace into lockdown. And I doubt it is behaviour, social distancing was desultory from what I saw.

Any ideas?

Randomness!

The outbreaks come and go in Europe, for example, with each country going through the next phase at different times. Perhaps just one random superspreader event early on makes all the difference. That creates the randomness not so much in terms of what eventually happens but when it happens. That's partly the nature of exponential growth. We've seen that a lot in Europe: one country has ten times the cases of another, but in fact they are only really six week ahead in the next cycle. And, then, the same pattern for regions and cities within a country, with the outbreaks taking off randomly at different times.

There's an argument that the case numbers in QLD will eventually rise to the numbers seen elsewhere in Australia. And, given the way COVID spreads, it would be pure chance if all the states stayed in unison, as it were.

 

[bhobba]

There's an argument that the case numbers in QLD will eventually rise to the numbers seen elsewhere in Australia. And, given the way COVID spreads, it would be pure chance if all the states stayed in unison, as it were.

I think pretty likely. That is just my opinion of course. We will see what eventuates. At the moment, things are so good there is no longer a mask mandate, although I still wear one indoors. I have always thought outdoors they are of dubious value except when crowded.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Melbourne Guy]

I have always thought outdoors they are of dubious value except when crowded

I saw some recent research that suggests wind direction and speed affect the likely spread outdoors. Downwind is worse because the Covid droplets travel considerably further than models account for, which is logical but now it's tested. But yeah, outdoors is better than indoors, so masking like is prudent.

I'm not sure compliance is a root cause for the difference between QLD vs. VIC, though. Human nature seems universal, and there's a lot of Victorians in Queensland, and I'd expect them to take their unruly nature north, why would they not?

The outbreaks come and go in Europe, for example, with each country going through the next phase at different times.

Queensland has never been 'the next cycle' though, they've gone well past the typical six- or eight-week cycle, so it does not seem to be the same as the Europe experience.

 

[PeroK]

Queensland has never been 'the next cycle' though, they've gone well past the typical six- or eight-week cycle, so it does not seem to be the same as the Europe experience.

It's deeply ingrained in human nature to look for causes for every variation, large or small. Australia has been on an upward curve for three months. That appears to be almost entirely NSW and Victoria.

The natural human analysis is to look for the reasons for this. The alternative is that the start of the outbreak in each state follows some distribution and it's just a matter of time before things take off in QLD. That is the European experience. Some countries were largely unaffected by the first wave around May 2020 and then hit badly by the second wave in October.

Australia is geographically much larger than western europe, with the states in terms of size more like large european countries. There may be a reason that QLD has escaped, but likewise there may be no concrete reason other than the statistical vagaries of the pandemic.

In any case, it will be interesting to see what happens over the next six months.

 

[Melbourne Guy]

The natural human analysis is to look for the reasons for this.

Yes, ideally so we can all be like Queensland

I heard this morning that there are cases on the Gold Coast, so maybe Delta is about to breakout in the Sunshine State, but I do hope they avoid it, as they've avoided it so far.

Australia is geographically much larger than western europe,

Yes, which continually surprises visitors from all over, so perhaps population density is a factor. I'd discounted it earlier, but not on the basis of any analysis, merely my own experience of Brisbane etc. compared to other cities. It's not shoulder-to-shoulder like Hong Kong, but maybe an outdoor lifestyle, warmer weather, and short, sharp lockdowns means the virus concentration does not reach the threshold required to gain a toehold?

Still, Delta is considerably more transmissible than the original strain, and so far, nothing like what we've seen elsewhere has occurred, despite a slower vaccination uptake (it will be 70% of the eligible population shortly, which is good).

 

[mfb]

First dose vaccination rate has decreased both in Australia and Japan now as they get closer to 100% coverage of adults.

We have reached 50% of the world population with at least one dose.

 

[bhobba]

First dose vaccination rate has decreased both in Australia and Japan now as they get closer to 100% coverage of adults.

Yes. But it is incredible what a bit of a 'scare' will do. Cases appeared in Goondiwindi:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11...scare-prompts-surge-of-vaccinations/100595122

Thanks
Bill

 

[Melbourne Guy]

We have reached 50% of the world population with at least one dose.

My emphasis on the word 'population', that's not everyone, is it? Just those eligible for vaccination, which is generally 16-years and older. Children still need to be vaccinated the world over.

 

[mfb]

It is everyone in the denominator, population includes children. The website doesn't have separate statistics for adults.

 

[Melbourne Guy]

It is everyone in the denominator, population includes children

Thanks for that, @mfb, I'm skeptical, though, given global politics, can you provide the link to the source, I'd like to understand their methodology?

 

[mfb]

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Uncertainties on the world population are too small to matter here.