Australia Possibly Heading For 95% Vaccination

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See:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09...er-cent-first-covid-19-vaccine-rate/100489618

As the article says, Aus could get to 95%. 90% won't be hard; 95% would be a real achievement, but it is possible. I don't think anyone is sure exactly what will happen at that high a vaccination percentage. My GP thinks herd immunity is possible. Me, I am not so sure. What do others think? If achieved, of course, it will be a big plus.

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Bill
 
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  • #2
phinds
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Australia Possibly Heading For 95% Vaccination​

No, definitely not. New South Wales apparently is, according to the article, but NSW is NOT "Australia". Figures vary for the whole country but the highest I've seen is 50% and I don't think anyone believes that the country as a whole will ever get to 95%.

Here's one showing 42%
1632649340458.png


And here's one showing that they have 50% and hope to get to 70%
1632649421131.png
 
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  • #3
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New South Wales apparently is, according to the article, but NSW is NOT "Australia".

Indeed. The issue is will Australia, in general, do what NSW did. QLD has said it may wait until 90% before reducing restrictions. But I have to say restrictions in QLD are not onerous - NSW was/has a powerful lockdown and at one time over 1500 cases per day - QLD on occasion just a couple, but mostly zero. The citizenry in NSW was/is much more incentivised.

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Bill
 
  • #4
It's useful to note that here, "Australia" excludes younger people, so using the NSW example from the article as representative of such reporting generally:

NSW is on track to have 90 per cent of its population aged 16 and over vaccinated with a first dose of a COVID-19 shot by next month.

But while we're generally socially compliant Down Under, there does seem to be considerable vaccine hesitancy - the messaging around AstraZeneca did not help there - that may limit the upper bound of vaccination.

Melbourne Institute has a hesitancy tracker that puts the overall figure around 15% (it ebbs and flows and depends on where people live) and possibly it will drop as unvaccinated people are constrained in their behaviour, and hesitancy does not necessarily mean outright rejection of vaccination, but 95% does seem unlikely.

https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-insights/ttpn/vaccination-report
 
  • #5
russ_watters
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As the article says, Aus could get to 95%. 90% won't be hard; 95% would be a real achievement, but it is possible.
Article:
NSW is on track to have 90 per cent of its population aged 16 and over vaccinated with a first dose of a COVID-19 shot by next month.

And by November, 110%!

The article is pretty much nonsense/useless. What we found in the US (and I suspect other countries found the same thing) is that those who wanted to be vaccinated got vaccinated and then those who didn't, didn't. The rate of vaccinations can tell you approximately when you could reach that ceiling but tells you nothing at all about where that ceiling is. Vaccine hesitancy polls may provide some predictive power.

After you hit that ceiling, then you can start wearing-down those left.

Looking at the data for all of Australia, it's pretty linear; currently at 63%, rising by 18% per month. If the uptake is high, you'll find out in November where that ceiling is.
 
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PeroK
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Article:


And by November, 110%!

The article is pretty much nonsense/useless. What we found in the US (and I suspect other countries found the same thing) is that those who wanted to be vaccinated got vaccinated and then those who didn't, didn't. The rate of vaccinations can tell you approximately when you could reach that ceiling but tells you nothing at all about where that ceiling is. Vaccine hesitancy polls may provide some predictive power.

After you hit that ceiling, then you can start wearing-down those left.

Looking at the data for all of Australia, it's pretty linear; currently at 63%, rising by 18% per month. If the uptake is high, you'll find out in November where that ceiling is.
In terms of total population, the UK has reached only 71% and the USA only 63%, despite our flying starts in the vaccination programme. These numbers have been pretty flat for months now. Meanwhile, Portugal has reached 88%, Spain 80% and Denmark 77%. The UK has been overtaken by much of Europe now, which is mainly due to our reluctance to vaccinate children.
 
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So far Australia is still on a good track. No sign of slow-down at 66% (of the total population) with at least one dose. We'll see where that point will be. For first doses it already overtook the US, it's about to overtake Germany, and it could overtake the UK somewhat soon, too. Same for Japan, except that it already reached the 72% of the UK. Globally we are getting closer to the 50% milestone.

Naturally full vaccinations are about a month behind.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

vaccinerates.png
 
  • #8
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So far Australia is still on a good track.

Sure is. We have just reached 80% first dose over 16. But the one that got me was on September the 13th; they started giving it to 12-15-year-olds. Already nearly 50% first dose. As I said in another thread - And the children will show us the way. I am confident we will reach 90% double dose 12 and over. I still am hopeful of 95%+. Why it looks like we could do better than Germany beats me.

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Bill
 
  • #9
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Germany's vaccination capacity has exceeded demand since late July, so everyone who wants to get a vaccine can do that without booking an appointment far in advance. We now send vaccines to other countries, with a goal of 100 million (~1.3/capita) by the end of the year.

It is possible that the official numbers underestimate the actual fraction of vaccinated people. If you ask people in surveys you get significantly higher numbers than the official statistics, but of course that's self-reported and comes with other biases.
 
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  • #10
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Germany's vaccination capacity has exceeded demand since late July, so everyone who wants to get a vaccine can do that without booking an appointment far in advance.

Recently the same here in Aus. It was also true before, but people were turned off by the 1 in a million risk of dying from AZ, so it just stockpiled up. It took a while for Australia to secure more Pfizer and some Moderna vaccines, so the supply of what people wanted exceeded demand. The AZ has not been desired - it has been sent to our pacific neighbours. We also have 51 million doses of Novavax coming, as well as 81 million of Pfizer and a trickling of Moderna. Some think Novavax will be the best booster vaccine, but only time will tell. We already know Pfizer is a good booster. Moderna wants to build a manufacturing plant here. Australia is becoming awash with vaccines and will supply countries in the pacific region.

Added Later:
ACT where I used to live now at over 95% and climbing. NSW nearly 90%.

Thanks
Bill
 
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  • #11
atyy
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https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/coronavirus/vaccine-tracker/
It matters where the doses are concentrated. Vaccinating young people doesn't count as much as vaccinating the elderly for reducing severe illness and death. Australia has given first doses to >93% of those aged 60+. It's looking good, hope you get it as close to 100% as possible. I think concerns about the rural areas and indigenous peoples remains.

Singapore made the mistake of advertising its 83% population vaccination rate as among the best in the world. Yet for those aged 70+, its first dose vaccination rate was 88% in early September, at a time when the USA was estimated to have 92% first dose coverage of those aged 65+. Bill Hanage was probably writing about the US, but his comment applies well to Singapore "It is frustrating that those places that want to claim the pandemic has receded are frequently those with poor vaccination rates in the most vulnerable age groups. As a result the sense of an ending is likely to meet a rude awakening".
 
  • #12
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From my local newspaper today, the Courier-Mail:
'Vaccine Qld: First Nations communities may stay locked down.'

Their vaccination rate is not good enough to open up. The conjecture is they have been sending nurses/doctors around to vaccinate the community. However, it was with the police. That is thought to scare many first nations people. They are going to try using tribal elders instead of police. Why they would be scared of authority is too political for discussion here.

Thanks
Bill
 
  • #13
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The ACT has done it - 99% 12 and over now vaccinated:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/austr...k-to-become-most-vaccinated-city-in-the-world

One can only hope other Australian states learn what Canberra did and duplicate it. Where I am, Queensland is about 71% - below the Australian average of 83% (that is over 16 - but the 12 to 15 age group is catching up fast - could even be caught up by now like in the ACT). As per my previous post, Queensland has many Aboriginal communities with low vaccination rates, which obviously is an issue.

Thanks
Bill
 
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  • #14
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Just out of curiosity, people may be interested in the newly announced restrictions where I live in Queensland. At the moment, about 72.5% are vaccinated with the first dose.

When 70% are fully vaccinated (estimated November 19), entry requirements are:

Fully vaccinated
Arrive by air
Have a negative Covid test in the 72-hours before travel
Undertake home quarantine for 14 days

When 80% are fully vaccinated (estimated December 17), entry requirements are:

Travellers can arrive by air or road
Must be fully vaccinated
Have a negative Covid test in the 72-hours before travel
No quarantine required

When 90% are fully vaccinated (no estimated date):

All may enter. Unvaccinated must quarantine for 14 days.

Thanks
Bill
 

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