Averaging measurement with stat +sys errors

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Homework Help Overview

The discussion revolves around the averaging of measurements with correlated systematic uncertainties in the context of statistical analysis. The original poster presents a scenario involving two measurements, each with associated statistical and systematic errors, and seeks to understand the implications of these uncertainties on the calculated weights for averaging.

Discussion Character

  • Mixed

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • The original poster attempts to calculate the covariance matrix and its inverse to determine the weights for averaging the two measurements. They express confusion over obtaining a weight of zero for one measurement, questioning the validity of their approach.
  • Some participants suggest exploring the impact of assigning a small weight to the second measurement to analyze the combined uncertainty.
  • Others reflect on previous calculations with different values, noting that the weights made sense in that context, and they consider whether the weights should adjust accordingly.
  • There is a discussion about the properties of the inverse matrix and its implications for the weights, particularly in cases of zero determinant.

Discussion Status

The discussion is ongoing, with participants exploring various interpretations of the results and questioning the assumptions made in the calculations. Some guidance has been offered regarding the implications of the covariance matrix and the nature of the weights, but no consensus has been reached.

Contextual Notes

Participants are considering the effects of 100% correlated systematic uncertainties and the peculiarities that arise when statistical errors are negligible. The original poster's calculations have led to unexpected results, prompting further investigation into the mathematical properties of the covariance matrix.

ChrisVer
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Homework Statement



You make a measurement of two variables with 100% correlated systematic uncertainty:
x_1 \pm \Delta x_1^{stat} \pm \Delta x_1^{sys} = 1.0 \pm 0.1 \pm 0.1
x_2 \pm \Delta x_2^{stat} \pm \Delta x_2^{sys} = 1.2 \pm 0.1 \pm 0.2

The average is taken by:

\bar{x} = \sum_{i=1}^2 w_i x_i

where w_i = \frac{\sum_j (C^{-1})_{ij}}{ \sum_{kj} (C^{-1})_{kj}} and C=C^{stat}+ C^{sys} the covariance matrix of the measurement.

Homework Equations



All given above

The Attempt at a Solution



I calculate C to get its inverse and find the weights.
For that I deduced that:
C^{stat} = \begin{pmatrix} (\sigma^{stat}_1)^2 & 0 \\ 0 & (\sigma_2^{stat})^2 \end{pmatrix}
and
C^{sys} =\begin{pmatrix} (\sigma^{sys}_1)^2 & \sigma^{sys}_1 \sigma^{sys}_2 \\ \sigma^{sys}_1 \sigma^{sys}_2 & (\sigma_2^{sys})^2 \end{pmatrix}
due to the 100% correlated systematic uncertainties \sigma_{12}^{sys} = \rho \sigma_1^{sys} \sigma_2^{sys}= \sigma_1^{sys} \sigma_2^{sys}.

When I go to get C then:

C=C^{stat} +C^{sys}= \begin{pmatrix} 0.01 & 0 \\ 0 & 0.01 \end{pmatrix} +\begin{pmatrix} 0.01 & 0.02 \\ 0.02 & 0.04 \end{pmatrix} =\frac{1}{100} \begin{pmatrix}2 & 2 \\ 2 & 5 \end{pmatrix}

The inverse of this matrix is C^{-1} = \frac{50}{3} \begin{pmatrix} 5 & -2 \\ -2 & 2 \end{pmatrix}.

My problem is that with such a matrix I am getting for the weights:
w_1 =\frac{\sum_j (C^{-1})_{1j}}{ \sum_{kj} (C^{-1})_{kj}}= \dfrac{\frac{50}{3} (5-2)}{ \frac{50}{3}(5+2-2-2)}= 1

And
w_2 = 0 (since C_{21}^{-1}= - C_{22}^{-1}).

I don't know why this is happening... Any idea?
Obviously this doesn't seem to make sense because in the averaging I won't get any contribution from x_2...
 
Last edited:
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Including the second measurement blows up the systematic error without reducing the statistical error much. To check this, you can give the second measurement the weight ##w_2 = \epsilon \ll 1## and see what the combined uncertainty is (compared to w2=0).
I can imagine that not averaging at all is the best you can do in this special case where the systematics are weird (100% correlated, but much larger in the second case).
 
The thing is that this makes it a bit more strange... Because I tried before doing the same for x_1= 0.1 \pm 0.0 \pm 0.1 and x_2= 1.0 \pm 0.0 \pm 0.2 (no statistical error). The covariance matrix was:
C= \frac{1}{100} \begin{pmatrix} 1 & 2 \\ 2 & 4 \end{pmatrix} \Rightarrow C^{-1} = \begin{pmatrix} 4 & 8 \\ 8 & 16 \end{pmatrix}
And the weigths were found to be w_1= \frac{1}{3} and w_2= \frac{2}{3} which make sense...

I will try to work out with w_2= \epsilon \ll 1 then... do you think w_1 = 1 - \epsilon as well?
 
Also that's a weird inverse, since [C^{-1} C ]_{11}= \frac{1}{100} (4+16) \ne 1...

*edit and just realized that the determinant is zero and wolfram was giving me a pseudoinverse matrix*
 
ChrisVer said:
Also that's a weird inverse, since [C^{-1} C ]_{11}= \frac{1}{100} (4+16) \ne 1...

*edit and just realized that the determinant is zero and wolfram was giving me a pseudoinverse matrix*
Ah, that could be the problem.

Without statistical errors the weights should certainly be 1 and 0, as using the value with the larger (but 100% correlated) systematics is pointless.

##1-\epsilon## for the other weight, sure.
 

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