Bayes' Theorem: Dividing P(B|A)*P(A) by P(B) for Accurate Probability

  • Level: Undergrad 
  • Thread starter Thread starter xeon123
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Probability Theorem
Join the discussion
Registration is free. Start your own thread to ask a follow-up.
1 reply · 2K views
xeon123
Messages
90
Reaction score
0
in the Bayes' theorem, why P(B|A)*P(A) is divided by P(B)? What we want no achieve with the fraction?
 
Physics news on Phys.org
Start with the definition of conditional probability:
[tex]P(B|A) \equiv \frac{P(A\cap B)}{P(A)}[/tex]
and similarly,
[tex]P(A|B) = \frac{P(A\cap B)}{P(B)}[/tex]
Solving for [itex]P(A\cap B)[/itex] yields
[tex]P(A\cap B) = P(B|A)P(A) = P(A|B)P(B)[/tex]
Bayes' theorem derives directly from this.