Bayes' Theorem: Dividing P(B|A)*P(A) by P(B) for Accurate Probability

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SUMMARY

Bayes' Theorem is a fundamental concept in probability theory that expresses the relationship between conditional probabilities. The equation P(B|A) * P(A) is divided by P(B) to calculate the posterior probability P(A|B). This derivation is based on the definitions of conditional probability, specifically P(B|A) = P(A ∩ B) / P(A) and P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B). Understanding this relationship is crucial for accurate probability assessments in various applications.

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xeon123
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in the Bayes' theorem, why P(B|A)*P(A) is divided by P(B)? What we want no achieve with the fraction?
 
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Start with the definition of conditional probability:
[tex]P(B|A) \equiv \frac{P(A\cap B)}{P(A)}[/tex]
and similarly,
[tex]P(A|B) = \frac{P(A\cap B)}{P(B)}[/tex]
Solving for [itex]P(A\cap B)[/itex] yields
[tex]P(A\cap B) = P(B|A)P(A) = P(A|B)P(B)[/tex]
Bayes' theorem derives directly from this.
 

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