ron damon said:
But why? Are they beyond modernization? What fundamental reason prevents them from advancing? 100 years ago nobody saw in China, Japan (~150), Korea or India any potential, yet all of them flourished under (diverse) direct intervention by western powers...
First of all, "modernisation" and "advancing" in your mind means "adapting a Western style of living" and not all people over there are convinced that that is a positive evolution. The very fact of not being able to see that makes you blind to the big mistakes you are committing over there. Although SOME parts of western living style (cars, radios, cellular telephones...) are accepted and desired over there, the core values ARE NOT. "freedom of religion", "women's rights", "democracy" etc... are very discutable values in the Arab world.
Of course, we, in the West, see that as just "backwardish" and "barbaric" but it is not always perceived that way in these countries, and you cannot (especially using violence !) just come in with your dirty boots and think they will find it obvious that you bring them these values (shove it down their throats if you like), because it is in a strong collision with their core values, which are islamic religion, tribal traditions and an Arab nationalistic sentiment. Whether or not you and I like that, this is the way things are over there and if you do not take it into account when you do something over there, chances are you're going to screw up dearly.
If we hope for them to change, it is NOT, certainly NOT, going to work with bombs and guns, because you will strengthen their desire to protect their core values more than to make them change.
You cannot make someone love you by beating up, and a similar thing is at work in the ME.
For instance, as an analogy, do you think that you could convince your average American of the good of communism by bombing them until they become communist ? Or would that just enhance the hate for everything communist ?
The way to change things over there would be by showing some respect for their different value system and to hope that the change would come from within. We could help that a little bit by getting more secular governments over there. Not by IMPOSING them, but by manoeuvring in such a way that secular governments which adopt a separation between state and religion can provide a positive balance to their own population.
The example you give, China, is btw funny. You cannot say that China became prosperous under Western (English) domination, can you ? They are becoming prosperous thanks to a mixture of communist dictatorship eaten with a capitalist sauce, which was certainly NOT military imposed by western countries. I'm also not very sure that India got where it is today "thanks to military intervention of the west". They got more exploited than anything else under the English domination, and what they achieved on their own afterwards has nothing to do with that.
The example that is often cited is Japan, but Japan is different. First of all, there was not this fierce religious tradition as is the case in the Arab countries: never the conflict took on the face of a religious war as it seems to be the case in the ME. And second, with Japan, the West had the moral high ground: they were attacked, and what the Japanese got to suffer after that was the consequence of their own aggression. In Iraq, you're the aggressor, and, as is now clear for about 90% of the world, the original reasons given for the invasion were simply not true. You cannot get lower on the moral scale!
The only thing that the Iraq invasion achieved was to be a major propaganda campaign for OBL, and all those favoring a radical theocracy in the Arab world. You've made islamic terrorism seem acceptable by a big part of the Arab population who finds it finally a right response to the military muscle of the US they have to deal with, and you've made life miserable for all those favoring an evolution towards more western values within Arab societies.
AND ALL THAT WAS EASILY TO BE FORESEEN, in the same way that bombing Americans to make them adopt communism is easily seen to be counterproductive. It doesn't take a PhD in political science to see that.