Can Roads Double as Shelters During Evacuations?

[Dr Transport]

Good point. Evacuation is less of a problem if we have time to do it.

On the same point, wouldn't it be appropriate to have «down time» planned ahead during hurricane season for those regions? Something like having schools closed or having some legal state-wide holidays, which would encourage people taking vacations during those critical weeks. The easiest people to evacuate are the ones who are not there!

Hurricanes and other natural disasters are random events. Hurricane season runs from June to end of November, but this year was worse than the previous years. When there is one coming, just get out of town as soon as possible is the only feasible solution, waiting until the very last minute results in exactly what happened in Florida a couple of weeks ago. As for the islands, the best way to prepare is to prepare and have a spot to go and wait it out, think about it, Puerto Rico, 1.3 million people, to get them off of the island takes between 5000 and 5500 flights, at best that could be accomplished in maybe two weeks time for multiple airports. They didn't have two week prep time. hurricanes don't work that way, at best you get a week.

 

[OmCheeto]

...
The topic here is evacuation.

From my experience with the recent national traffic jam drill, commonly referred to as "The Great American Eclipse", I have a couple of recommendations:

#1! Stage national guardsmen in Podunk^[1] towns to keep traffic flowing.
There was only ONE bottleneck on my 230 mile trip back: ONE small town, with ONE stop sign, and ONE sheriff, who pulled over the person in front of me, for performing a "California stop"^[2].

2. Regional database: Have people inform the authorities where the plan on going. (77% of Americans have smart phones. [ref])
Allows authorities to plan where to put the above guardsmen.
And perhaps a small survey:

Do you have friends to stay with? And if so, where?
If not, how far can you drive on a half a tank of gas?​

I'm curious, does anyone know if the "115 ... emergency shelter schools throughout Florida" [ref] were fully utilized? All with emergency solar power. Seems like they could have housed a lot of poor people, who with their poor-people cars, would have made the evacuation worse.

------------
[1] Podunk: a hypothetical small town regarded as typically dull or insignificant.
noun US informal

[2]California Stop: An automobile driving maneuver in which a driver slows down, but does not stop, at a stop sign.
Noun
Synonym: rolling stop

 

[anorlunda]

Sure, police and planning can help. Some evacuations go more smoothly than others.

School shelters tend to get used first by the local homeless, then by residents of low-lying areas second. There are also countless mobile home parks in Florida, and those people are directed to shelters all the time. Still, 115 schools can't shelter a large percentage of 10 million people.

Below is an account of a 2005 evacuation of Houston that went very badly. In 2017, they chose to not evacuate because of fear of a repeat. A main point in post #1 in this thread is that good plans only move people 10-20 miles. Houston TX to Dallas TX is about 250 miles (400km), not short.

In late September 2005, many of us remember seeing weather reports that showed a mean swirl of clouds about the size of Brazil headed straight at Galveston.

Hurricane Rita, a Category 5 monster, was moving toward the Texas Gulf Coast with frightening speed, causing evacuation orders for low-lying areas.

Unfortunately, more than a million of us hit the road, producing gridlock for miles and miles toward the north and west.

The worst day was probably Thursday, Sept. 22, as every conceivable evacuation route was clogged well past capacity.

For example, Texas 146, which travels through Liberty County, dumped 600,000 people into a county with only 70,000 residents, Liberty County Sheriff's Sgt. Ronnie Alexander told the Chronicle at the time.

"We saw everything from road rage to medical emergencies," Alexander said.

On other major freeways, frustrated drivers took things into their own hands and drove on the wrong side of the road before authorities designated "contra-flow" lanes to speed things along.

Thousands of people ran out of gas, or their cars overheated from all the inching along, causing many to stop and sleep along the highway.

Perhaps the most tragic incident of the monumental evacuation was the death of 24 Bellaire nursing home residents who died when their chartered bus caught fire and exploded about 6:45 a.m. Sept. 23, 2005, on traffic-clogged Interstate 45 near Dallas.

Florida route I95, 9/7/2017. Only barrier islands and the keys were ordered evacuated, perhaps 1 million of the 10 million people in the area.

 

[OmCheeto]

This is interesting:

"...Florida statutes require educational facilities to meet public shelter design criteria." [ref]​

Mentor corrected link: https://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handle/10945/52969/17Mar_Dela Cruz_Donalyn.pdf
and

"...Florida’s 4,200 public schools" [ref]​

That's a lot of shelters.

Is it a good assumption that most Floridians abhor the thought of being cooped up with their neighbors for a few days?

Guessing the classroom capacity of Florida schools is 3,000,000. [ref: "3,000,000 children between the ages of 5 and 17"]
and

"The state of Florida ordered more than 6.5 million residents to evacuate" [ref]​

Which implies that half of the residents could have just driven to their local school, rather than traveling to, um, New Orleans, as one of my Tampa Floridian acquaintances did. (700 miles!)

 

[OmCheeto]

...

Florida route I95, 9/7/2017. Only barrier islands and the keys were ordered evacuated, perhaps 1 million of the 10 million people in the area.
View attachment 212041

I think that kind of problem requires the "homework" template.

Homework Statement

[/B]

Homework Equations

[/B]

The Attempt at a Solution

[/B]​

 

[jack action]

[2]California Stop: An automobile driving maneuver in which a driver slows down, but does not stop, at a stop sign.

Around here we call that an «American stop»! Never thought about how Americans called that maneuver before!

 

[Dr. Courtney]

Get out early. Beat the rush.

Stocking up on water and nonperishables, filling the tank, or getting out of dodge.

Do it when the odds of a direct hit are 20% and you will beat the rush.

 

[OCR]

This is interesting:

"...Florida statutes require educational facilities to meet public shelter design criteria." [ref]​

Looks like your [ref] URL wants to link to your computer...?

That's never worked for me, either... . .

​

 

[OmCheeto]

Looks like your [ref] URL wants to link to your computer...?
...
That's never worked for me, either... . .

People actually click on my references?

Hopefully it works better this time:

Theses and Dissertations Thesis and Dissertation Collection
2017-03
The role of schools and their capabilities to ensure safe sheltering during a storm
Dela Cruz, Donalyn A.
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
ABSTRACT
Across the country, public schools are more than just learning environments for students; they are designated emergency shelters in times of natural disasters, such as hurricanes, tsunamis, and tornadoes. This thesis examines the use of public schools as emergency shelters as an integral part of homeland security. It specifically addresses the experiences in the State of Hawaii and examines the practices and policies of Florida, Texas, and Japan. Through a case study of these locations, recommendations are made for the State of Hawaii regarding the practice of maintaining schools as shelters, strengthening security and safety, and clarifying its role. ​

Seems like a good idea to me.

 

[anorlunda]

@OmCheeto ,

Sure, that goes with one of the principles on my list; use what you already have.

The article says, "FEMA requires all facilities that provide storm sheltering to comply with ICC 500, the standard for design and construction of storm shelters." and "What is not noted in the [plan] ...the necessary changes to build or retrofit schools to comply with storm sheltering standards." But typical of government-speak, the report talks of the deficit of schools meeting the standards, of budgets for improvement, yada yada, but no mention of the actual capacity of standard-ready schools. There is also a lack of info I see (I'm a part time Florida resident) instructing people where to go to find shelter.

By the way, the same article says, "More than 1.5 million Floridians live in evacuation zones" whereas the Miami Herald article said 6.5 million were ordered out for Irma; a big discrepancy. I suspect either a typo, or an understatement. Perhaps it was really only 1.5 million evacuates, or perhaps an additional 5 million people left who were not ordered out. I'm not sure where to look for a clarification.

 

[jim hardy]

Homes should be built hurricane proof so evacuation is unnecessary. My house in Tavernier(upper Keys) was poured concrete, even the roof, on columns with floor well above anything a "storm surge" had to run over. I refused to evacuate because the authorities put up roadblocks and won't let you come home for days.

There are places you just shouldn't build. That's the folly of National Flood Insurance Program, it has encouraged buildng inappropriate structures where there should be only expendable fishing shacks.

old jim

 

[OmCheeto]

...There is also a lack of info I see (I'm a part time Florida resident) instructing people where to go to find shelter.

That's kind of what I inferred with my micro-survey:

And perhaps a small survey:
Do you have friends to stay with? And if so, where?
If not, how far can you drive on a half a tank of gas?

Looking at the map I just found, it looks as though the furthest distance of "evacuation" to "non-evacuation" locations is Key West to Miami: 170 miles

Hurricane Evacuation Zones [ref]

So the second question may be moot. I would simply devise a plan that everyone else be designated a safe location within 150 miles of home.
One of the layers on the map shows evacuation routes. Perhaps people who need to evacuate could enter their zip codes, and the disaster agency in charge could direct them to a designated site, along a certain route.

By the way, the same article says, "More than 1.5 million Floridians live in evacuation zones" whereas the Miami Herald article said 6.5 million were ordered out for Irma; a big discrepancy. I suspect either a typo, or an understatement. Perhaps it was really only 1.5 million evacuates, or perhaps an additional 5 million people left who were not ordered out. I'm not sure where to look for a clarification.

This is something I've also found researching the situation in Puerto Rico. Lots of conflicting information.

 

[anorlunda]

Good work on finding that map Om. But the link doesn't work, so I can't view it..

The Keys are a special case, and The Keys seem to have evacuations well handled. The rest of southern FL was my focus, and most of those people should only need to drive a short distance. Instead, many or most of them decided to drive 660 miles to Atlanta, or 1000 miles to New Orleans. That's what motivated me to create this thread. Such long distance evacuations reflect poor planing and poor options for citizens.

But to fully understand, combine that map you posted of evacuation areas, with the satellite image below. The huge black areas between Miami and Marco Island and south of Lake Okeechobee are Everglades and Big Cyprus Swamp. In other words, most of the square miles in the south Florida evacuation areas are under water naturally, so they shouldn't count.

(Ignore that blue-tinted key-shaped anomaly north of the middle keys. I have no idea what that is.)

North of Lake Okeechobee, east-west evacuation to the nearest inland area is much more practical. (Hooray, we're going to Disney. )

But trying to make it clearer still, let me focus on just Miami/Ft. Lauderdale. (population 5.7 million) In the figure below, I drew a rough line. Now imagine everyone on the white area east of the line evacuating to the white area west of the line. Ignore the black areas because they are under water. That is the plan that the Miami Herald article says that experts endorse.

 

[OCR]

People actually click on my references?

...

Hopefully it works better this time:

...

 

[OCR]

Good work on finding that map Om. But the link doesn't work, so I can't view it..

That's odd... his link works fine for me.

Are you seeing... ?
https://floridadisaster.maps.arcgis...ndex.html?id=c788060028cb43809a25744ead39c0d6

 

[OmCheeto]

That's odd... his link works fine for me.

Are you seeing... ?
https://floridadisaster.maps.arcgis...ndex.html?id=c788060028cb43809a25744ead39c0d6

Another option is to try the index page: https://floridadisaster.maps.arcgis.com/home/index.html
and look for the Hurricane Evacuation Zones link.

 

[Evanish]

What about evacuating some people by ship? I'm sure you can fit a lot of people onto a large cargo ship. For a cheaper fix on sheltering in place, what about something like the "Ark Two Shelter" (I bunch of buses buried under concrete and dirt) placed on higher ground so it won't be covered by water?

Not really pretty but the basic idea seems sound (maybe with cargo containers instead of buses). I don't know how such an idea would be paid for or organized though. It doesn't really seem suited towards a government project.

It doesn't seem like a lot of people die from hurricanes in the US. Is investing to much into this really worthwhile?

 

[BillTre]

I would guess a freighter could easily out run most hurricanes, they seem pretty slow.

However, I would bet they would get a lot of Norovirus infections.

 

[.Scott]

For perspective, Puerto Rico has a population of 3.4 million and last I heard a death toll of 10 from Maria. This pales in comparison to Katrina's death toll of 1800.

We can build houses to withstand hurricanes. If they do it in in a charitably described "developing" territory, it isn't that hard. It just goes back to some of the same issues from the blackouts thread; getting people to care enough to put it into the building codes(see also: tornado alley). In Puerto Rico, that's not an issue: you know your home's construction will be tested, so you construct it accordingly.

The problem is not so much with the structure being torn down as with the entire neighborhood being flooded.

I wouldn't count on the death toll being 10. As with most disasters, communications are not available for most of the island. So there many be many untallied deaths. And, of course, without power and transportation, there will likely be more casualties.

Modern city life is critically dependent on infrastructure.

 

[OmCheeto]

What about evacuating some people by ship? I'm sure you can fit a lot of people onto a large cargo ship.

I saw that a cruise ship was in Puerto Rico last week to evacuate people. I was curious how long it would take that ship to shuttle all 3.4 million people to Florida.
Answer: 12 years

For a cheaper fix on sheltering in place, what about something like the "Ark Two Shelter" (I bunch of buses buried under concrete and dirt) placed on higher ground so it won't be covered by water?

Not really pretty but the basic idea seems sound (maybe with cargo containers instead of buses). I don't know how such an idea would be paid for or organized though. It doesn't really seem suited towards a government project.

No comment.

It doesn't seem like a lot of people die from hurricanes in the US. Is investing to much into this really worthwhile?

I did the maths on the death rate in the Houston metro area.
Death rate without hurricanes: 140 people/day
Death rate from hurricane Harvey: 70 people/(a REALLY BAD hurricane)

So my answer would be no.

 

[WWGD]

So nobody should live in the Caribbean? Countries should be completely erased, because no one should be allowed to live there?

Don't you think this is an overreaction? There are way worst catastrophes happening in other (less developed) parts of the world, yet no one say such statements. These kind of things have happened for as long as humanity has existed and people adapt and live with it. Welcome to planet Earth.

If one doesn't want to live there, fine. If one wants to share his/her concerns with others, fine. If one doesn't want to help them, fine by me as well. But if one wants to force someone to do something because he/she wants to calm his/her fears, or doesn't want to help if something goes wrong and doesn't want to feel the guilt that may come with it, I think nobody has that right.

Part of the problem, at least in the U.S is that few people want to pay the price ( insurance- and otherwise) for their choice of living in a high-risk place. These people end up often being subsidized by others, which does not seem fair.

 

[jack action]

Part of the problem, at least in the U.S is that few people want to pay the price ( insurance- and otherwise) for their choice of living in a high-risk place. These people end up often being subsidized by others, which does not seem fair.

That is true. But I prefer people having the choice to help others up to their means, rather than forcing others to do things the «accepted» way, because we fear it will cost too much when they will need help. With the former, everybody has freedom of choice, with the latter, only the ones following the norm (willingly) have that privilege.

 

[Dr. Courtney]

Dunno bout public policy. But if I lived in New Orleans, points south, or coastal Mississippi, I'd be headed for higher ground by now.