News Can the nuclear industry be trusted?

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The discussion centers on the trustworthiness of the nuclear industry and public perception following recent accidents. Concerns are raised about past assurances of reactor safety and the industry's tendency to prioritize cost over safety, leading to preventable disasters. Participants debate the relative risks of nuclear power compared to other energy sources, with some arguing that nuclear remains a safer option despite its flaws. There is skepticism about the industry's ability to regain public trust, with some predicting a long recovery period before acceptance returns. The conversation highlights the need for a reliable energy source while acknowledging the challenges and risks associated with nuclear power.
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  • #62
Well, this deal probably would have happened anyway, but way to make a popular statement at any given opportunity Salazar.
 
  • #63
Pattonias said:
In the defense of the Chernobyl reactor design, several back-up safety measures were disabled while the idiots were running their experiment. Any improvements to prevent that aspect of the disaster would require your to make it impossible to override those safety measure. I assume that is what they did change in addition to other improvements.

This would be an interesting trade-off - and extremely unlikely. What happens if a sensor starts malfunctioning and giving false readings?

I'm not that familiar with nuclear power facilities, but a malfunctioning sensor can always be a threat to a computerized program. Garbage in, garbage out. A good, safe program responds to problems that can be anticipated, but leaves unique malfunctions for humans to solve.

Interesting difference in approaches between Chernobyl and TMI. At TMI, the emphasis was on understanding the underlying problem causing the indications operators were seeing. Instead of focusing on safing the reactor in an anomaly, the operators focused on determining and correcting the underlying problem. The solution was to 'dumb down' operations and rely more on checklists that directed actions to avoid a disaster rather than fixing the underlying problem. At Chernobyl, the attitude all along was that the operators should follow directions (via checklists or engineers) and didn't require the knowledge to diagnose underlying problems.

When you're talking about humans and group dynamics (which is almost more important than the knowledge level of the operators), there are no perfect solutions. You minimize the chance of errors, but you never get the chances down to zero.

I don't enough of the details of either situation to make an authoritative comment about either's solution, but I generally prefer relying on knowledge than checklists. Regardless, all too often, organizations focus on only these two options, since they're easy to quantify, and miss the areas where they could truly make improvements.

It's hard to train teamwork, communication, discipline, and ownership. These qualities play a more important role in crew errors than most people give credit for. The crew that defers to the engineers conducting an important test, not realizing that the engineer is trusting the crew to stop his test if it creates an situation that the crew considers unsafe. The crew that misses the underlying problem because every single person on crew is looking at the same spectacular symptoms of the problem - i.e. a lack of discipline has reduced an entire crew into accomplishing no more than a single person could. The crew that just doesn't understand what they're saying to either because so much communication is unspoken and assumed - or because some crew members are bullied and unwilling to speak up, etc.

These aren't the type of things that are ever likely to be reduced to zero. A very good organizations at least gets them close to zero, while a dysfunctional organization has chronic problems like this. Those are also the type of things that would be hard to measure during a safety inspection.
 
  • #64
BobG said:
This would be an interesting trade-off - and extremely unlikely. What happens if a sensor starts malfunctioning and giving false readings?

I'm not that familiar with nuclear power facilities, but a malfunctioning sensor can always be a threat to a computerized program. Garbage in, garbage out. A good, safe program responds to problems that can be anticipated, but leaves unique malfunctions for humans to solve.

Interesting difference in approaches between Chernobyl and TMI. At TMI, the emphasis was on understanding the underlying problem causing the indications operators were seeing. Instead of focusing on safing the reactor in an anomaly, the operators focused on determining and correcting the underlying problem. The solution was to 'dumb down' operations and rely more on checklists that directed actions to avoid a disaster rather than fixing the underlying problem. At Chernobyl, the attitude all along was that the operators should follow directions (via checklists or engineers) and didn't require the knowledge to diagnose underlying problems.

When you're talking about humans and group dynamics (which is almost more important than the knowledge level of the operators), there are no perfect solutions. You minimize the chance of errors, but you never get the chances down to zero.

I don't enough of the details of either situation to make an authoritative comment about either's solution, but I generally prefer relying on knowledge than checklists. Regardless, all too often, organizations focus on only these two options, since they're easy to quantify, and miss the areas where they could truly make improvements.

It's hard to train teamwork, communication, discipline, and ownership. These qualities play a more important role in crew errors than most people give credit for. The crew that defers to the engineers conducting an important test, not realizing that the engineer is trusting the crew to stop his test if it creates an situation that the crew considers unsafe. The crew that misses the underlying problem because every single person on crew is looking at the same spectacular symptoms of the problem - i.e. a lack of discipline has reduced an entire crew into accomplishing no more than a single person could. The crew that just doesn't understand what they're saying to either because so much communication is unspoken and assumed - or because some crew members are bullied and unwilling to speak up, etc.

These aren't the type of things that are ever likely to be reduced to zero. A very good organizations at least gets them close to zero, while a dysfunctional organization has chronic problems like this. Those are also the type of things that would be hard to measure during a safety inspection.

The US Navy seems to manage... that or they're unreasonably lucky, which I doubt.
 
  • #65
nismaratwork said:
The US Navy seems to manage... that or they're unreasonably lucky, which I doubt.

Provided you're working with a mature system, manned by people that have grown up in the system and aren't intimidated by it, the military has a culture that encourages good group dynamics.

It still takes a conscious effort to achieve that - especially in fields that deal with new technology/concepts that can be intimidating to the new operator.

And whether you're training new nuclear operators, new satellite operators, or coaching kids' soccer teams, the hardest thing to do is to get the person to 'own' the knowledge or skill they learned. To get them to quit deferring to someone that may be an expert in their own job, but knows squat about crew operations; to get them to quit deferring to the team's star and to do something on their own, etc.

I used to have to investigate satellite anomalies and they were almost always caused by crew errors. And it was rare for the error to be due to a lack of knowledge or proficiency. Most errors were due to the fuzzy arts of communication, teamwork, and discipline - to the extent that many seemed almost comic in how they developed. Those type of errors always make the people involved look dumber than they really are (but at least make for incredibly funny stories). Hence, I think it's a mistake to write off Chernobyl as being due to Russia being less skilled in nuclear operations than the US or Japan or being simply due to a less safe design.

None the less, you have about 442 nuclear reactors in the world and you've had 3 incidents serious enough to get press coverage. And this is consdering that over 350 of those reactors are at least 20 years old, so that's a lot of operating time with few critical failures. You can meet a very high percentage for reliability - you just can't get to 100%.
 
  • #66
BobG said:
What happens if a sensor starts malfunctioning and giving false readings?


Sensors malfunctioning and giving false readings are not a problem. In systems where failures would have serious consequences, the usual solution is to employ something called triple redundancy. You don’t measure it once, you measure it three times. If two sensors agree and one disagrees you believe the two that agree. Techniques like this do tend to reduce the chances of serious failures to acceptable levels.

I’m not exactly sure of what is being suggested about the events at Chernobyl, but some of what is being said doesn’t accord with my understanding of it. I don’t know that there was anything invalid about the test they had intended to carry out, or the techniques to be used or any failures of ability among the actual team who were supposed to conduct it. The chronic part of the story as I understand it is that another conventional power station went off line unexpectedly and Chernobyl were asked to delay their test. The problem at the other power plant took longer to rectify than expected and by the time Chernobyl was given the go ahead the team assembled to conduct the test had gone home. There are some obvious questions about command and control structures that allowed the team that were left to take the decision to proceed with the test themselves, from there it was something of a soucerer’s apprentice situation. I suppose there are then also some valid questions about reactor control design that allowed them to keep withdrawing the control rods because of their misreading of the situation when they should have been inserting them. Isn’t there now some fly-by-wire type solution that would make that impossible I seem to recall hearing about?
 
  • #67
BobG said:
This would be an interesting trade-off - and extremely unlikely. What happens if a sensor starts malfunctioning and giving false readings?

I'm not that familiar with nuclear power facilities, but a malfunctioning sensor can always be a threat to a computerized program. Garbage in, garbage out.

You're joking right? You don't believe they just have the one sensor doing the job? That would be madness.

This is the whole point of having redundant / parallel systems. We can't trust just one system so we put a few in. The chances of them all failing simultaneously are incredibly small in comparison to just relying on one. I don't know of any critical processes that rely solely on one system without backup / redundancy / parallels.

Naturally, you can't bring that down to zero risk, but any statement such as that you made above is going for the scare factor in my opinion.

EDIT: Beaten to it by Ken
 
  • #68
To get a better grasp of the human involvement in Chernobyl here is a, pretty lengthy, wiki article that explains it rather well.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Individual_involvement_in_the_Chernobyl_disaster"
 
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  • #69


CAC1001 said:
Just curious, but what is the risk of coal power and why would a Chernobyl event once a year still be lower than with coal power :confused:
I haven't been back to the thread and haven't read past this (yet) so I haven't seen if anyone responded, but according to the EPA, coal power kills about 24,000 Americans a year, with almost all of them being preventable:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5174391/ns/us_news-environment/

That link includes an interesting "experiment" that happened during a long blackout, where a lifting of air pollution was very noticeable.

Note: This does not even address global warming. While discussion of global warming itself is not permitted here, I mention it because it is many of the same environmental activists who are against nuclear power and believe in a very bad situation coming due to global warming: a contradictory set of opinions.

Regarding Chernobyl: Estimates vary, but the WHO puts the number of deaths at around 4,000 (from the wiki). In other words, every two months, coal power kills as many people in the US as Chernobyl killed worldwide.

[edit: My citation wasn't exactly right: This report was not done by the EPA, but rather by "by a consultant often used by the Environmental Protection Agency"]
 
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  • #70


russ_watters said:
I haven't been back to the thread and haven't read past this (yet) so I haven't seen if anyone responded, but according to the EPA, coal power kills about 24,000 Americans a year, with almost all of them being preventable:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5174391/ns/us_news-environment/

That link includes an interesting "experiment" that happened during a long blackout, where a lifting of air pollution was very noticeable.

Note: This does not even address global warming. While discussion of global warming itself is not permitted here, I mention it because it is many of the same environmental activists who are against nuclear power and believe in a very bad situation coming due to global warming: a contradictory set of opinions.

Regarding Chernobyl: Estimates vary, but the WHO puts the number of deaths at around 4,000 (from the wiki). In other words, every two months, coal power kills as many people in the US as Chernobyl killed worldwide.



re: bolding mine: This above all confuses me... that on one hand you want to save the environment from anthrogenic global warming, acid rain, etc... yet by default there is support for coal!

I sooooo don't understand that position, not even a little. Is radiation so much more frightening than lung cancer, asthmatic asphyiation, or other "fun" effects of coal? Hell, even mining Uranium can have the benefit of releiving Radon seams...

...I don't understand the anti-nuclear-by-default-pro-coal stance. There's no element of it that I understand, and I never have. Green energy is not happening right now, and it's not just for lack of funding; Pickens proved that.

I just... do not get it.

edit: clarification, not YOU russ, just "you" the general "they"
 
  • #71


russ_watters said:
While discussion of global warming itself is not permitted here...
Really? I thought we were allowed to discuss religions as long as we didn't denigrate them.
 
  • #72


Al68 said:
Really? I thought we were allowed to discuss religions as long as we didn't denigrate them.

:smile:
 
  • #73


nismaratwork said:
re: bolding mine: This above all confuses me... that on one hand you want to save the environment from anthrogenic global warming, acid rain, etc... yet by default there is support for coal!

I sooooo don't understand that position, not even a little. Is radiation so much more frightening than lung cancer, asthmatic asphyiation, or other "fun" effects of coal? Hell, even mining Uranium can have the benefit of releiving Radon seams...

...I don't understand the anti-nuclear-by-default-pro-coal stance. There's no element of it that I understand, and I never have. Green energy is not happening right now, and it's not just for lack of funding; Pickens proved that.

I just... do not get it.

edit: clarification, not YOU russ, just "you" the general "they"

*I'm sure your sarcasm tag was on nismaratwork, however I'm still going to respond to this.

The reason for if you are anti nuclear then you support coal is because those two power sources are the only choice for cheep base load power in the USA and arguably in the rest of the world.

Even the worlds largest wind and solar projects come no where close to replacing any of the top http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/rankings/plantsbycapacity.htm" in the USA.

So notes can be compared, here is a list of the largest power complexes by fuel type in the world.

Roscoe Wind Farm (on shore wind) in Texas, USA provides 781.5 MW nameplate capacity
Thanet Wind Farm (off shore wind) in the UK provides 300 MW nameplate capacity
Sarnia Photovoltaic Power Plant (solar PV) in Ontario, Canada provides 97 MW nameplate capacity
Three Gorges Dam (hydroelectric) in PRC provides 18300 MW (current)/22500 MW (completion) nameplate capacity
Taichung Power Plant (coal) in Taiwan provides 5780 MW nameplate capacity
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (nuclear) in Japan provides 8212 MW nameplate capacity
Kawagoe Power Station (natural gas) in Japan provides 4802 MW nameplate capacity
Surgut-2 Power Station (fuel oil) in Russia provides 4800 MW (current)/5600 MW (after upgrade) nameplate capacity
 
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  • #74


Argentum Vulpes said:
Roscoe Wind Farm (on shore wind) in Texas, USA provides 781.5 MW nameplate capacity
Thanet Wind Farm (off shore wind) in the UK provides 300 MW nameplate capacity
Sarnia Photovoltaic Power Plant (solar PV) in Ontario, Canada provides 97 MW nameplate capacity
Three Gorges Dam (hydroelectric) in PRC provides 18300 MW (current)/22500 MW (completion) nameplate capacity
Taichung Power Plant (coal) in Taiwan provides 5780 MW nameplate capacity
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (nuclear) in Japan provides 8212 MW nameplate capacity
Kawagoe Power Station (natural gas) in Japan provides 4802 MW nameplate capacity
Surgut-2 Power Station (fuel oil) in Russia provides 4800 MW (current)/5600 MW (after upgrade) nameplate capacity

Wow, I didn't realize nuclear / coal / oil / gas plants produced so much. I thought they were only in the 1 to 2 gigawatt range.

RE Bolded: That is incredible. I can only imagine the water capacity they need for that. Now there's a dam you don't want to burst.
 
  • #75
jarednjames said:
Perhaps this should have its own thread.

Your wish is granted.

I can change the subject or do some additional editing if necessary.
 
  • #76


Argentum Vulpes said:
*I'm sure your sarcasm tag was on nismaratwork, however I'm still going to respond to this.

The reason for if you are anti nuclear then you support coal is because those two power sources are the only choice for cheep base load power in the USA and arguably in the rest of the world.

Even the worlds largest wind and solar projects come no where close to replacing any of the top http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/rankings/plantsbycapacity.htm" in the USA.

So notes can be compared, here is a list of the largest power complexes by fuel type in the world.

Roscoe Wind Farm (on shore wind) in Texas, USA provides 781.5 MW nameplate capacity
Thanet Wind Farm (off shore wind) in the UK provides 300 MW nameplate capacity
Sarnia Photovoltaic Power Plant (solar PV) in Ontario, Canada provides 97 MW nameplate capacity
Three Gorges Dam (hydroelectric) in PRC provides 18300 MW (current)/22500 MW (completion) nameplate capacity
Taichung Power Plant (coal) in Taiwan provides 5780 MW nameplate capacity
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (nuclear) in Japan provides 8212 MW nameplate capacity
Kawagoe Power Station (natural gas) in Japan provides 4802 MW nameplate capacity
Surgut-2 Power Station (fuel oil) in Russia provides 4800 MW (current)/5600 MW (after upgrade) nameplate capacity

I'm sorry, but I wasn't being sarcastic; mainly because:

1.) Hydroelectric is a bloody environmental catastrophe
2.) Lack of storage and more efficient/cheap transmission = Wind/Solar not being a viable replacement for Coal or Nuclear.
3.) Newer designs that are literally generations beyond what we have (thanks Greenpeace, I used to like you) are more efficient and capable of greater generation.
 
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  • #77


jarednjames said:
Wow, I didn't realize nuclear / coal / oil / gas plants produced so much. I thought they were only in the 1 to 2 gigawatt range.
Many modern nuclear plants produce between 0.9 and 1.2 GWe. A twin unit state would produce 1.8-2.4 GWe.

Some large PWR units produce 1.3-1.45 GWe, and the Gen III+ units are up to ~1.6 GWe.
 
  • #78


Astronuc said:
Many modern nuclear plants produce between 0.9 and 1.2 GWe. A twin unit state would produce 1.8-2.4 GWe.

Some large PWR units produce 1.3-1.45 GWe, and the Gen III+ units are up to ~1.6 GWe.

Yes, those are the numbers I'm thinking of.

According to the above though, you have a nuclear plant producing 8.2:
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (nuclear) in Japan provides 8212 MW nameplate capacity

Or have I read that number wrong?
 
  • #79
That may mean it has 8 reactors...

Regardless of people's concerns about hydro, there is a more important problem with it: it's essentially fully utilized already, so there isn't much potential for expansion.
 
  • #80
What about the issue of biologically dervied fuels, from algae and bacteria? That certainly has enormous potential, and unlike coal or nuclear it's portable, exportable, and safe.
 
  • #82
Topher925 said:
How aware are people of this?: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,752944,00.html

Personally, I trust the nuclear industry more than I trust the government but that's really not saying much.

Politicians: "People who shake your hand before an election, and your confidence after." (Ernie Kovacs)

I'm feeling rather shaken by all of this. My "love" of nuclear is really more of a loathing of coal, but this is deeply disheartening. We can't expect to scale up nuclear if that means equal scaling of contamination...

I'm disturbed, and uncertain.
 
  • #83
nismaratwork said:
What about the issue of biologically dervied fuels, from algae and bacteria? That certainly has enormous potential, and unlike coal or nuclear it's portable, exportable, and safe.

Sounds kind of wacky to me.
 
  • #84
Ivan Seeking said:
Sounds kind of wacky to me.

:smile:

Now class, that is what is called in academic circles, "busting balls".
 
  • #90
Treading warily, am I read into this Nisamratwork, that you have had a road to Damascus style change of heart to the view not only that nuclear power generation is not safe, but that the nuclear power generation industry is inherently dishonest in its dealings with the public? From the links you have provided, I am failing to find the basis for that.
 

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