Can You Outpredict Paul the Octopus in the 2014 PF World Cup League?

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Discussion Overview

The thread discusses predictions for the outcomes of matches in the 2014 World Cup, inviting participants to compare their forecasting abilities against Paul the Octopus. The scope includes voting on overall winners, runner-ups, and individual match outcomes, with a focus on points awarded for correct predictions.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • Participants are encouraged to predict the winner and runner-up of the World Cup, with various individuals suggesting different teams such as Spain, Brazil, Germany, and Argentina.
  • Voting on individual match outcomes is also proposed, with points awarded for correct results and scores, leading to a variety of predictions for specific matches.
  • Some participants express confidence in their predictions, while others offer differing views on match outcomes, indicating a range of opinions on team performances.
  • Specific match predictions are shared, with participants providing their expected scores for various games, showcasing a diversity of forecasting strategies.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

There is no consensus on which team will win the World Cup, as multiple competing views are presented. Participants have differing predictions for individual matches as well.

Contextual Notes

Participants' predictions depend on personal assessments of team strengths and weaknesses, and the discussion reflects a variety of assumptions about match outcomes without resolving these uncertainties.

  • #241
Probably too late but I will say this:
Belgium - USA: 0-3
 
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  • #242
Brazil - Colombia (4 July): 1 - 1 Colombia win on penalties

France - Germany (4 July): 0 - 1 Germany win

Netherlands - Costa Rica (5 July): 2 - 1 Netherlands win
 
  • #243
Well, the round of 16 is over now. Congratulations to montadhar for taking the lead once again! Although the difference is quite small!
 
  • #244
July 4th:
Brazil vs Colombia: 2-1
France vs Germany: 1-1, France advances

July 5th:
Netherlands vs Costa Rica: 3-0
Argentina vs Belgium: 2-0
 
  • #245
July 4th:
Brazil vs Colombia: 2-2 Brazil Advances
France vs Germany: 1-2

July 5th:
Netherlands vs Costa Rica: 2-0
Argentina vs Belgium: 1-0
 
  • #246
July 4th:
Brazil vs Colombia: 1-2
France vs Germany: 2-1

July 5th:
Netherlands vs Costa Rica: 2-0
Argentina vs Belgium: 2-0
 
  • #247
July 4th:
Brazil vs Colombia: 0-2
France vs Germany: 1-1 Germany advances

July 5th:
Netherlands vs Costa Rica: 2-1
Argentina vs Belgium: 1-1 Argentina advances
 
  • #248
4th July:
Brazil v Colombia: 2-1
France vs Germany: 2-1

5th July:
Netherlands v Costa Rica: 3-1
Argentina v Belgium 3-2
 
  • #249
4th July:
Brazil v Colombia: 0 - 1
France vs Germany: 0 - 2

5th July:
Netherlands v Costa Rica: 3 - 1
Argentina v Belgium: 1 - 2
 
  • #250
4th July:
Brazil v Colombia: 1 - 2
France vs Germany: 1 - 2

5th July:
Netherlands v Costa Rica: 3 - 0
Argentina v Belgium: 2 - 1 (sorry, micromass :smile:)
 
  • #251
Netherlands - Costa Rica (5 July): 2 - 1 Netherlands win

Argentina vs Belgium: (July 5th ): 1 - 1 Belguim advance on penalties.
 
  • #252
4th July:

Brazil - Colombia: 2 - 1
France - Germany: 1 - 2
 
  • #253
micromass said:
Well, the round of 16 is over now. Congratulations to montadhar for taking the lead once again! Although the difference is quite small!

Thanks :biggrin: I wouldn't celebrate that yet though, it will be very easy for me to move to the 3rd place today, and it's possible to go as far as the fifth.

This was my thought process when I chose the predictions of today's match:
"I will take the calculated risk and vote for Colombia" *looks at the predictions by other members* "OK, I will take the calculated risk and vote for Brazil"
 
  • #254
montadhar said:
, it will be very easy for me to move to the 3rd place today, and it's possible to go as far as the fifth.

Really fun, eh? :-p
And you and I may lose a lot of (overall) potential points if Germany loses today :biggrin:.
If Germany loses, and those who voted Germany as winner place new winners today/tomorrow,
the following potential points will be lost:

montadhar: 16 - 4 = 12 potential points
Logger: 16 - 4 = 12 potential points
PhysicsGente: 10 - 4 = 6 potential points
DennisN: 10 - 4 = 6 potential points

This contest is mighty fun :approve:.
 
Last edited:
  • #255
Also fun to see that cristo and me had Brazil as overall winner, but now voted for Colombia to win :-p
 
  • #256
micromass said:
Also fun to see that cristo and me had Brazil as overall winner, but now voted for Colombia to win :-p

:confused: :smile: :confused:
 
  • #257
Did you know in French todays match was Allemagne vs France?
 
  • #258
5th July:

Netherlands v Costa Rica: 2 - 0
Argentina v Belgium: 2 - 1
 
  • #259
Semi-finals:
Argentina vs Netherlands: 1-0
Germany vs Brazil: 4-2
 
  • #260
Matterwave said:
Semi-finals:
Argentina vs Netherlands: 1-0
:bugeye: Are you such a fanatic of Argentina?

Germany vs Brazil: 4-2

:rolleyes: That's somewhat closer, though :approve:
 
  • #261
Semi-finals:
Argentina vs Netherlands: 1-1 Netherlands advance
Germany vs Brazil: 1-1 Germany advance
 
  • #262
Can we please follow the FIFA order? It is
Brazil - Germany
Netherlands - Argentina

This makes it a lot easier for me.
 
  • #263
Semi-finals:

Brazil vs Germany: 0-0, Brazil advances
Netherlands vs Argentina: 1-2
 
  • #264
Brazil vs Germany: 0-1
Netherlands vs Argentina: 1-0
 
  • #265
Brazil v Germany: 0-1
Netherlands vs Argentina: 0-1
 
  • #266
Brazil - Germany: 0 - 2
Netherlands - Argentina: 2 - 0
 
Last edited:
  • #267
micromass said:
Prediction for the winner:
Posted on 6 June (16 points):
micromass - Brazil

micromass said:
Brazil - Germany: 0 - 2

Are you using a complementary strategy? :biggrin: (I don't know if "complementary" is the right term, but you probably understand what I mean)

EDIT: I haven't decided for the semi-finals yet. I have to think it through properly. Some tough decisions...:smile:
 
  • #268
Brazil vs Germany: 1-0
Netherlands vs Argentina: 2-1
 
  • #269
DennisN said:
Are you using a complementary strategy? :biggrin: (I don't know if "complementary" is the right term, but you probably understand what I mean)

Hey, I get points anyway, no matter who wins :biggrin:
 
  • #270
Semi-finals:
Brazil - Germany: 1 - 2
Netherlands - Argentina: 2 - 1
(gosh, these results were hard for me to decide on :biggrin:)
 

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