News Case Scenario: Iran's Nuclear Program & Oil Prices

[nismaratwork]

Russia doesn't have the capacity, any more than the US does, to cause the ME to be organized and peaceful. I'm not sure there is such an entity given the nature and complexity of the conflicts, and the trans-generational hatred.

As for ending badly, I have to say, it's going to be really ugly when oil "runs out" or ceases to be sufficient to prop up the Arab economies. Civil unrest is too mild a term...

 

[apeiron]

Russia doesn't have the capacity, any more than the US does, to cause the ME to be organized and peaceful. I'm not sure there is such an entity given the nature and complexity of the conflicts, and the trans-generational hatred.

As for ending badly, I have to say, it's going to be really ugly when oil "runs out" or ceases to be sufficient to prop up the Arab economies. Civil unrest is too mild a term...

Agreed, but for Russia and China, they are dealing with dangers of rogue/failed nations on their doorstep. The US is rather more distanced from any mess it creates.

As to the oil running out, we probably only need to see oil production become constrained to witness big geopolitical shifts. While oil has matched demand, a free market approach has worked. But if production becomes constrained, then suddenly it will become about which customers can barge their way to the front of the queue. That is when all the recent strategic jockeying for position with airbases, pipeline politics, wars on terrorism, nuclear technology sales, and suchlike show who has been playing the game well.

For example, has the US been smart or dumb in supporting a strong Israel? Has it created an unnecessary complication that will allow others like China to slip in, or is having a viciously armed proxy in the region going to be a crucial part of the puzzle?

Of course, actual war is what most would want to avoid as it would be the fastest way to disrupt the flow of oil.

 

[nismaratwork]

Agreed, but for Russia and China, they are dealing with dangers of rogue/failed nations on their doorstep. The US is rather more distanced from any mess it creates.

As to the oil running out, we probably only need to see oil production become constrained to witness big geopolitical shifts. While oil has matched demand, a free market approach has worked. But if production becomes constrained, then suddenly it will become about which customers can barge their way to the front of the queue. That is when all the recent strategic jockeying for position with airbases, pipeline politics, wars on terrorism, nuclear technology sales, and suchlike show who has been playing the game well.

For example, has the US been smart or dumb in supporting a strong Israel? Has it created an unnecessary complication that will allow others like China to slip in, or is having a viciously armed proxy in the region going to be a crucial part of the puzzle?

Of course, actual war is what most would want to avoid as it would be the fastest way to disrupt the flow of oil.

I agree with your analysis of Russia and especially China's position, and to answer the last, I think support of Israel is wise. Nobody else has that kind of influence in the region, and when you combine that with a strong domestic lobby in favor of it, it's a win-win. Israel is a de facto nuclear deterrent, intelligence asset, proxy, and training partner... and since the only thing the US loses in that relationship is good-will, I'd say it's a fair trade.

If China wants in, it has to do so through Iran, and then they're competing with Russian AND French interests... we have a much more direct line in the ME. Israel, by maintaining a low level of conflict is both stalking horse, and a means of settling what could become wars before they interrupt oil supplies.

 

[mheslep]

Russia doesn't want ...

If anything, one could make the argument that Russia stands only to benefit from a nuclear Iran, since such development would drive oil prices upwards – something Russia can only welcome, since it will earn Russia both cash and influence.

Exactly so.

 

[qsa]

I agree with your analysis of Russia and especially China's position, and to answer the last, I think support of Israel is wise. Nobody else has that kind of influence in the region, and when you combine that with a strong domestic lobby in favor of it, it's a win-win. Israel is a de facto nuclear deterrent, intelligence asset, proxy, and training partner... and since the only thing the US loses in that relationship is good-will, I'd say it's a fair trade.

If China wants in, it has to do so through Iran, and then they're competing with Russian AND French interests... we have a much more direct line in the ME. Israel, by maintaining a low level of conflict is both stalking horse, and a means of settling what could become wars before they interrupt oil supplies.

I think the US is making a grave mistake in supporting “Israel”.

First, it will go the way the Greeks, the Romans, the Crusaders, the Mongolians, and the European colonials went from the ME.

Second, it is just a leftover of the colonial era and it exists in a very unnatural way with it surrounding which cannot be maintained indefinitely, and it is detrimental to everybody including the Jews (which were tricked into this dangerous affair).

Third, after WWII the situation was ideal for very good cooperation between Europe and the Arab world (and Muslims) since culturally (both have their religion from the same area), geographically and historically the Arabs are much closer to Europeans than anybody else in the world. But creation of Israel created much distrust and lingering animosity with no benefit to either. The Arabs must sell their oil to make money; they cannot drink it or use all of it.

Forth, you cannot grantee your low intensity conflict.

Fifth, the whole affair of large countries vying for control of the natural resources of other countries is a sure way for a mega war where ugly weapons (available now at many countries) will be used with unpredictable consequences. And who needs enemies at that time.

Let’s say a thief gets away with it and becomes rich, will you copy him!

 

[nismaratwork]

I think the US is making a grave mistake in supporting “Israel”.

First, it will go the way the Greeks, the Romans, the Crusaders, the Mongolians, and the European colonials went from the ME.

Second, it is just a leftover of the colonial era and it exists in a very unnatural way with it surrounding which cannot be maintained indefinitely, and it is detrimental to everybody including the Jews (which were tricked into this dangerous affair).

Third, after WWII the situation was ideal for very good cooperation between Europe and the Arab world (and Muslims) since culturally (both have their religion from the same area), geographically and historically the Arabs are much closer to Europeans than anybody else in the world. But creation of Israel created much distrust and lingering animosity with no benefit to either. The Arabs must sell their oil to make money; they cannot drink it or use all of it.

Forth, you cannot grantee your low intensity conflict.

Fifth, the whole affair of large countries vying for control of the natural resources of other countries is a sure way for a mega war where ugly weapons (available now at many countries) will be used with unpredictable consequences. And who needs enemies at that time.

Let’s say a thief gets away with it and becomes rich, will you copy him!

Do you have any basis at all for your "First"? Your second is somewhat true, but utterly irrelevant, and third again is an extraordinary claim requiring commensurate evidence. Fourth, yeah, there are no guarantees, but if the conflict ends being high intensity then at least we don't have to be the one dropping the nukes. Fifth is and has always been unavoidable, whether it's uranium, oil, gold, salt, or just water. I'd really love to see you back up your first and third statements...

 

[mheslep]

Israel is no more a 'leftover of the colonial era' than is the United States.

 

[Proton Soup]

Israel is no more a 'leftover of the colonial era' than is the United States.

does that make the US France ?

 

[qsa]

Do you have any basis at all for your "First"? Your second is somewhat true, but utterly irrelevant, and third again is an extraordinary claim requiring commensurate evidence. Fourth, yeah, there are no guarantees, but if the conflict ends being high intensity then at least we don't have to be the one dropping the nukes. Fifth is and has always been unavoidable, whether it's uranium, oil, gold, salt, or just water. I'd really love to see you back up your first and third statements...

Any time you have an invasion you are bound to have a resistance. Colonialism succeeded in sparsely populated not used to the old world ways of doing business. But the ME is different, it has been the center or close to the center of world civilization for the past thousands of years. It has very good experience with invaders being the center of the old world and linking Europe, Asia and Africa. As a matter of fact, ME itself has been a quite successful invader; it held Spain for 700 years. Invaders main mistake and reality is they tend to push things to the brink thinking that will save them only to backfire. You can skim the history through Wikipedia, it is fascinating.


As to third point, the history of ME and Europe has been a zigzag of conflict and cooperation throughout history. But with WWI the western powers promised the Arabs independence in case they helped to defeat the Turks. Of course, the West backed off that promise after the defeat of the Turks and they wanted to dominate. After WWII it became clear for the western empires that the situation was unsustainable and colonialism was over. And so for the first time in history it looked like Europe and the ME have settled into their natural borders with no reason for conflict; except for three problems: the Suez Canal, France’s claim to Algiers and Palestine. The first two were solved, but the last one became very tough because UN 194 was not implemented. The Arabs and Europeans are neighbors and they should respect each other and cooperate just like good neighbors. It is estimated in 20 years the Arab population (not counting IRAN, TURKEY and other Muslim countries) population will reach near 500 million. If the Palestine problem is not solved, Europe and the Arabs have a lot to lose.


As to your point of not dropping the nukes I hope you are right, but I am afraid that the US has hinted at using them and Israel being silent on its possession-hinting its possible use. The Arabs do not have them and their strategy is non nuclear in solving this problem, eventually.

 

[nismaratwork]

Any time you have an invasion you are bound to have a resistance. Colonialism succeeded in sparsely populated not used to the old world ways of doing business. But the ME is different, it has been the center or close to the center of world civilization for the past thousands of years. It has very good experience with invaders being the center of the old world and linking Europe, Asia and Africa. As a matter of fact, ME itself has been a quite successful invader; it held Spain for 700 years. Invaders main mistake and reality is they tend to push things to the brink thinking that will save them only to backfire. You can skim the history through Wikipedia, it is fascinating.


As to third point, the history of ME and Europe has been a zigzag of conflict and cooperation throughout history. But with WWI the western powers promised the Arabs independence in case they helped to defeat the Turks. Of course, the West backed off that promise after the defeat of the Turks and they wanted to dominate. After WWII it became clear for the western empires that the situation was unsustainable and colonialism was over. And so for the first time in history it looked like Europe and the ME have settled into their natural borders with no reason for conflict; except for three problems: the Suez Canal, France’s claim to Algiers and Palestine. The first two were solved, but the last one became very tough because UN 194 was not implemented. The Arabs and Europeans are neighbors and they should respect each other and cooperate just like good neighbors. It is estimated in 20 years the Arab population (not counting IRAN, TURKEY and other Muslim countries) population will reach near 500 million. If the Palestine problem is not solved, Europe and the Arabs have a lot to lose.


As to your point of not dropping the nukes I hope you are right, but I am afraid that the US has hinted at using them and Israel being silent on its possession-hinting its possible use. The Arabs do not have them and their strategy is non nuclear in solving this problem, eventually.

Who is invading anything, and why on Earth would I want to rely on wikipedia for a history lesson? What I'm getting from you is the usual pro-palestinian line, not a concrete argument.

You still need to justify the extreme statement:

First, it will go the way the Greeks, the Romans, the Crusaders, the Mongolians, and the European colonials went from the ME.

Unless you just meant that inevitably there is always a change of power over the course of centuries... which is meaningless for this debate.

Your statement about Israel being a colonial leftover is also ridiculous in this context, as others have noted. Instead of backing up your previous statements, you've just slung about some propaganda. I suppose that it's technically true that no Arab nations are seeking to develop nuclear weapons, but that's because Iran is a Persian nation. If you include them, then your point dies, and if you include Iraq in the 80's you're wrong all around.

Do you have a point to make here beyond sweeping generalizations and "doom to the invader" statements? I'm not really interested in another thread that devolves into quibbling about the Palestinians, who by the way, Arab nations want nothing to do with except as a political tool.

 

[qsa]

Who is invading anything, and why on Earth would I want to rely on wikipedia for a history lesson? What I'm getting from you is the usual pro-palestinian line, not a concrete argument.

You still need to justify the extreme statement: Unless you just meant that inevitably there is always a change of power over the course of centuries... which is meaningless for this debate.

Your statement about Israel being a colonial leftover is also ridiculous in this context, as others have noted. Instead of backing up your previous statements, you've just slung about some propaganda. I suppose that it's technically true that no Arab nations are seeking to develop nuclear weapons, but that's because Iran is a Persian nation. If you include them, then your point dies, and if you include Iraq in the 80's you're wrong all around.

Do you have a point to make here beyond sweeping generalizations and "doom to the invader" statements? I'm not really interested in another thread that devolves into quibbling about the Palestinians, who by the way, Arab nations want nothing to do with except as a political tool.

No generalization, just a fact of the 5000 years for each invader, no exceptions. Do you think the Arab countries and the Palestinians would just accept Israel and whatever it wants and that’s it? You are really mistaken and you know it. So far there have been many wars and many mini wars and the saga unfortunately is continuing for many reasons the least is the welfare of the human race.

I am not sure if you blind yourself to the fact (which is so simple) or you simply not aware. Palestine was under the control of UK and was handed over to Jews coming in ship loads from everywhere. That is double invasion.

The Palestinian refugees are multiplying in numbers, so the Arab governments are concerned. So are ordinary people because they don’t want to wake one day and find themselves in the same situation. Besides, if you see that your neighbor has been ransacked wouldn’t you and the rest of your neighbors organize a watch and try to apprehend the criminal assuming no police is available. But it is also well known that Arab governments and people have mismanaged this problem in the worst possible ways so far.


Iraq did not have any enrichment facilities and Iran is working under international monitors. In any case you cannot compare anything that they did or have with Israel’s 200 bombs and the west which is armed to the teeth and bone with nukes( please don’t tell me it is God given, or worse, we are smart we know when to use them ).

I can accuse you of a pro Israeli propagandist just the same. But I won’t. Because I believe that many westerns are genuinely misinformed, even many followers of the Christian right.

 

[nismaratwork]

No generalization, just a fact of the 5000 years for each invader, no exceptions. Do you think the Arab countries and the Palestinians would just accept Israel and whatever it wants and that’s it? You are really mistaken and you know it. So far there have been many wars and many mini wars and the saga unfortunately is continuing for many reasons the least is the welfare of the human race.

I am not sure if you blind yourself to the fact (which is so simple) or you simply not aware. Palestine was under the control of UK and was handed over to Jews coming in ship loads from everywhere. That is double invasion.

The Palestinian refugees are multiplying in numbers, so the Arab governments are concerned. So are ordinary people because they don’t want to wake one day and find themselves in the same situation. Besides, if you see that your neighbor has been ransacked wouldn’t you and the rest of your neighbors organize a watch and try to apprehend the criminal assuming no police is available. But it is also well known that Arab governments and people have mismanaged this problem in the worst possible ways so far.Iraq did not have any enrichment facilities and Iran is working under international monitors. In any case you cannot compare anything that they did or have with Israel’s 200 bombs and the west which is armed to the teeth and bone with nukes( please don’t tell me it is God given, or worse, we are smart we know when to use them ).

I can accuse you of a pro Israeli propagandist just the same. But I won’t. Because I believe that many westerns are genuinely misinformed, even many followers of the Christian right.

Wow, so instead of backstopping your previous unfounded statements, you now make new ones. I can see that this is going nowhere.

To edit, for the record:

I'm not christian, never mind "right".
I'm definitely pro-Israel, but for practical reasons only.

 

[hagopbul]

pro-Palestinian , pro - israel ...:) that is just a crap

1st Arab and Israel are from the same blood : both from sam

2nd from were i stand i know that oil is worth about 50 $ without this M east problems

3 there is too much oil in the Meast more than anyone can predict last year some one told me that they found oil near his town 10 year ago that was not thinkable

no body ask him self why the arab states never refine its oil ...?

 

[Newai]

Just what would Iran be capable of in way of developing nuclear weapons that can be delivered? How much of a threat does Iran pose with what they have or would acquire?

 

[nismaratwork]

Just what would Iran be capable of in way of developing nuclear weapons that can be delivered? How much of a threat does Iran pose with what they have or would acquire?

They have a lot more going for them in the way of delivery (if you live in the region) than they do in actually making a bomb. As for what they WILL or MIGHT develop or acquire, that's just guesswork. They're still on the way to refining from fuel to weapons grade Uranium, and I don't know what their state of the art is in terms of a gun or implosion type mechanism. I doubt that even Iran has a good clue...

 

[WhoWee]

The Palestinian refugees are multiplying in numbers, so the Arab governments are concerned. So are ordinary people because they don’t want to wake one day and find themselves in the same situation. Besides, if you see that your neighbor has been ransacked wouldn’t you and the rest of your neighbors organize a watch and try to apprehend the criminal assuming no police is available. But it is also well known that Arab governments and people have mismanaged this problem in the worst possible ways so far.
QUOTE]

Can you elaborate on this point?

Refugee camps are not new, nor is the refugee problem. This problem began in 1947 - a full 63 years ago.

http://www.mideastweb.org/refugees1.htm

"Not only the Fatah, but Arab leaders and media have unabashedly admitted that the refugee issue and right of return are being used as a means to destroy Israel. Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser told an interviewer on September 1, 1961: “If the refugees return to Israel, Israel will cease to exist.”

With the exception of Jordan, no country has allowed permanent resettlement of Palestinian refugees. Israel tried to do so in Gaza, but was forbidden to interfere with the camps by the UN. In April 2002, Israel destroyed much of the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank as part of a retaliatory operation against suicide bombings. UN and other international efforts focus on rebuilding the camp. No organization has suggested resettling the refugees, though many have noted the impossible conditions within the camp.

The Palestine refugee population has been growing at the rate of over 100,000 per year. In Gaza, there were some 500,000 refugees in 1993, and there are well over a million today. In 1997, UNRWA listed about 3.3 million refugees. By 2002, there were over 3.9 million. Thus, even if Israel were to accept repatriation of refugees at the rate of 100,000 per year indefinitely, the number of refugees would continue to increase. The economic impact of this rate of absorption would be staggering. Israel would cease to be a Jewish state. Thus, the "right of return" would eliminate the Jewish right to self-determination.

The Palestinians proposed during negotiations at the end of 2000, that Israel admit to right of return and asked for gradual rather than immediate implementation. Some Palestinians proposed to give up the literal implementation of Right of Return at the Camp David talks if only Israel would admit the right, but later apparently reneged on this proposal (see Palestinian Refugee Problem and Right of Return.).. In any case, admission of the right would inevitably open Israel to claims for further implementation of that right in the future. Some Palestinian leaders, notably Sari Nusseibeh, have called for a renunciation of Right of Return in order to make possible a settlement of the conflict, but this call has not met with much support among the Palestinian community. Palestinian political organizations such as the Fatah, Hamas, PFLP and PLO all insist on the full right of return, as do groups such as Al-Awda, Bushra and Passia. Al-Awda was among the groups calling for dismissal of Sari Nusseibeh by the PNA for his stance on refugees (http://www.al-awda.org/nusseibeh_response.htm ). "

Is this what you mean by "mismanaged"? I guess in the context of your 5,000 year view - a wait and see approach by the Arabs is understandable?

 

[nismaratwork]

The Palestinian refugees are multiplying in numbers, so the Arab governments are concerned. So are ordinary people because they don’t want to wake one day and find themselves in the same situation. Besides, if you see that your neighbor has been ransacked wouldn’t you and the rest of your neighbors organize a watch and try to apprehend the criminal assuming no police is available. But it is also well known that Arab governments and people have mismanaged this problem in the worst possible ways so far.
QUOTE]

Can you elaborate on this point?

Refugee camps are not new, nor is the refugee problem. This problem began in 1947 - a full 63 years ago.

http://www.mideastweb.org/refugees1.htm

"Not only the Fatah, but Arab leaders and media have unabashedly admitted that the refugee issue and right of return are being used as a means to destroy Israel. Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser told an interviewer on September 1, 1961: “If the refugees return to Israel, Israel will cease to exist.”

With the exception of Jordan, no country has allowed permanent resettlement of Palestinian refugees. Israel tried to do so in Gaza, but was forbidden to interfere with the camps by the UN. In April 2002, Israel destroyed much of the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank as part of a retaliatory operation against suicide bombings. UN and other international efforts focus on rebuilding the camp. No organization has suggested resettling the refugees, though many have noted the impossible conditions within the camp.

The Palestine refugee population has been growing at the rate of over 100,000 per year. In Gaza, there were some 500,000 refugees in 1993, and there are well over a million today. In 1997, UNRWA listed about 3.3 million refugees. By 2002, there were over 3.9 million. Thus, even if Israel were to accept repatriation of refugees at the rate of 100,000 per year indefinitely, the number of refugees would continue to increase. The economic impact of this rate of absorption would be staggering. Israel would cease to be a Jewish state. Thus, the "right of return" would eliminate the Jewish right to self-determination.

The Palestinians proposed during negotiations at the end of 2000, that Israel admit to right of return and asked for gradual rather than immediate implementation. Some Palestinians proposed to give up the literal implementation of Right of Return at the Camp David talks if only Israel would admit the right, but later apparently reneged on this proposal (see Palestinian Refugee Problem and Right of Return.).. In any case, admission of the right would inevitably open Israel to claims for further implementation of that right in the future. Some Palestinian leaders, notably Sari Nusseibeh, have called for a renunciation of Right of Return in order to make possible a settlement of the conflict, but this call has not met with much support among the Palestinian community. Palestinian political organizations such as the Fatah, Hamas, PFLP and PLO all insist on the full right of return, as do groups such as Al-Awda, Bushra and Passia. Al-Awda was among the groups calling for dismissal of Sari Nusseibeh by the PNA for his stance on refugees (http://www.al-awda.org/nusseibeh_response.htm ). "

Is this what you mean by "mismanaged"? I guess in the context of your 5,000 year view - a wait and see approach by the Arabs is understandable?

I think the view is generally that many Arab governments walk the fine line between self-destruction and governing their populace; this is such a wonderful *sarcasm* tool to distract their people and direct their anger. Look at Bin Laden who loathes the house of Saud; if not for the use of the Palestinians as a sort of ongoing 'martyr' far more people would focus on the real issues in the region that pertain to everyday life.

In short, Israel can be counted on to defend its right to exist (no shock there), the Palestinians are given arms and a sense of support without actually giving them a home or a chance. Most of the aid that (should) reach them is not Arab aid, and a great deal of it is "misplaced" by (formerly) Fatah, and now Hamas. Further, by conflating the notion of Israel and the USA these governments can direct anger off their shores entirely.

In the end, the Palestinians are a weapon in many hands, and one that occasionally goes off unpredictably. As such, it's kept at arms length, but stuffed into Israel proper and endless bad-faith talks and manufactured outrage keep the situation relatively static. as you've rightly pointed out, Israel would be insane to allow a group of people who openly espouse the destruction of their country to "come on home", especially when that home is at best, disputed, and at worst... not their (the Palestinians') home. After all, 63 years gone is still gone when there is, let's face it, no chance of allowing a sudden Arab majority into Israel, anymore than a nascent USA would have allowed GB to send a majority of their citizenry to the 'former colony'.

The only way to justify this IS to take the psychotically long view of millenia, and once people raise that issue it ceases to be a meaningful political discussion. It may be that in the chaos that comes with a decrease in oil production in the ME, unable to meet demand (whenever that is) does destroy the region, or Israel, but it's pretty certain that with little education and even less to call their home... the Palestinians are dead. Their "brothers" won't have them, and without homes to assimilate into, they'll be an increasingly fictionalized group, increasingly impoverished due to corruption, and isolated by the actions of their neighbors. In short, the best they can hope for is to be a proxy for other Arab states if they're ever mad enough to go to war with Israel again.

The only country in that region that has strategic backing is Israel... and unlike transient trading partners for Iran, the USA has a voting bloc that won't back off support. In addition, as long as there is a drop of oil, or China is a perceived threat they can count on USA support... going to war against Israel is just a grand suicide attempt for the nations in the region that are likely to implode. I can only say that I sincerely hope it's not within my natural lifetime.

Sorry qsa, you're entitled to your opinions, but they don't change or reflect reality any more than a flawed physical theory changes or reflects nature. You can waste your energy in this fashion, or focus on a plan for other Middle Eastern countries that keeps them from imploding when the oil runs dry, or from being conquered if it becomes scarce and demand far exceeds supply.

 

[mheslep]

Iraq did not have any enrichment facilities and Iran is working under international monitors.

If by that you mean an Iraqi nuclear weapons program Pu or U, and that all Iranian nuclear efforts are under intl monitor, then: false and false.

 

[nismaratwork]

If by that you mean an Iraqi nuclear weapons program Pu or U, and that all Iranian nuclear efforts are under intl monitor, then: false and false.

Well, what Iraq had was less threatening than a teenager with an rifle, but technically they had (as of this war) nothing imminent unless you have access to some classified intelligence. If you're referring to the 80's, I think Israel dealt with that quite nicely, and you'd think Iran would take the hint... *shrug*

As for the second false, seriously, how do people believe the spin Iran puts out there when they're not complaint at all? Really qsa, saying they're under monitors is TECHNICALLY true, but it's not effective monitoring... its like a security detail that has no idea where its principle is at any given time: useless.

 

[mheslep]

Well, what Iraq had was less threatening than a teenager with an rifle, but technically they had (as of this war) nothing imminent unless you have access to some classified intelligence. If you're referring to the 80's,s.

1991, Gulf War. Qsa made an absolute statement with no time frame.

...They translated the nuclear reports on site into English from the Arabic and read them to us over the satellite telephones. My secretary stayed up all night transcribing these reports from Baghdad. What they said, very clearly, was there was a massive nuclear weapons development program that was probably nine to 18 months away from having its first nuclear weapons detonation and that CIA had totally missed it; we had bombed everything we could bomb in Iraq, but missed an enormous nuclear weapons development facility. Didn't know it was there; never dropped one bomb on it.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...ws/clarke.html

 

[nismaratwork]

1991, Gulf War. Qsa made an absolute statement with no time frame.


http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...ws/clarke.html

Gotcha, and agreed.

 

[qsa]

Is this what you mean by "mismanaged"? I guess in the context of your 5,000 year view - a wait and see approach by the Arabs is understandable?

Yes, I said mismanaged, but they are not just waiting. The errors that have been made are both of strategic and tactical in nature. They have misread the geopolitics of the time and overestimated their own strength. But some of it is understandable considering that they have been under the Turkish rule and then both French and English. And also they were badly underdeveloped. The situation is very different now; they realize that the fight is a long term economical, social, and political among many other tools. But of course they are lacking in efficiency still.

As for the refugees, it is a breeding ground for new generation that is utterly bitter and they link very well with a large underprivileged segment (just as bitter) of the Arab population, which can destabilize the Arab world and hence affect the oil supply. That is why I had mentioned that as a reason for not being in the US interest.As you know humans are very territorial (just like all animals) violating that is like violating his body. And no amount of money can make up for it.

 

[nismaratwork]

Yes, I said mismanaged, but they are not just waiting. The errors that have been made are both of strategic and tactical in nature. They have misread the geopolitics of the time and overestimated their own strength. But some of it is understandable considering that they have been under the Turkish rule and then both French and English. And also they were badly underdeveloped. The situation is very different now; they realize that the fight is a long term economical, social, and political among many other tools. But of course they are lacking in efficiency still.

As for the refugees, it is a breeding ground for new generation that is utterly bitter and they link very well with a large underprivileged segment (just as bitter) of the Arab population, which can destabilize the Arab world and hence affect the oil supply. That is why I had mentioned that as a reason for not being in the US interest.As you know humans are very territorial (just like all animals) violating that is like violating his body. And no amount of money can make up for it.

By the time a "wait and see" strategy could pay off, there will be no oil, and therefore nothing of strategic value in the ME. If there are minor uprisings, the USA might not act, but China would crush that region for the sake of oil. The ME has no future.

 

[qsa]

I think the view is generally that many Arab governments walk the fine line between self-destruction and governing their populace; this is such a wonderful *sarcasm* tool to distract their people and direct their anger. Look at Bin Laden who loathes the house of Saud; if not for the use of the Palestinians as a sort of ongoing 'martyr' far more people would focus on the real issues in the region that pertain to everyday life.

In short, Israel can be counted on to defend its right to exist (no shock there), the Palestinians are given arms and a sense of support without actually giving them a home or a chance. Most of the aid that (should) reach them is not Arab aid, and a great deal of it is "misplaced" by (formerly) Fatah, and now Hamas. Further, by conflating the notion of Israel and the USA these governments can direct anger off their shores entirely.

In the end, the Palestinians are a weapon in many hands, and one that occasionally goes off unpredictably. As such, it's kept at arms length, but stuffed into Israel proper and endless bad-faith talks and manufactured outrage keep the situation relatively static. as you've rightly pointed out, Israel would be insane to allow a group of people who openly espouse the destruction of their country to "come on home", especially when that home is at best, disputed, and at worst... not their (the Palestinians') home. After all, 63 years gone is still gone when there is, let's face it, no chance of allowing a sudden Arab majority into Israel, anymore than a nascent USA would have allowed GB to send a majority of their citizenry to the 'former colony'.

The only way to justify this IS to take the psychotically long view of millenia, and once people raise that issue it ceases to be a meaningful political discussion. It may be that in the chaos that comes with a decrease in oil production in the ME, unable to meet demand (whenever that is) does destroy the region, or Israel, but it's pretty certain that with little education and even less to call their home... the Palestinians are dead. Their "brothers" won't have them, and without homes to assimilate into, they'll be an increasingly fictionalized group, increasingly impoverished due to corruption, and isolated by the actions of their neighbors. In short, the best they can hope for is to be a proxy for other Arab states if they're ever mad enough to go to war with Israel again.

The only country in that region that has strategic backing is Israel... and unlike transient trading partners for Iran, the USA has a voting bloc that won't back off support. In addition, as long as there is a drop of oil, or China is a perceived threat they can count on USA support... going to war against Israel is just a grand suicide attempt for the nations in the region that are likely to implode. I can only say that I sincerely hope it's not within my natural lifetime.

Sorry qsa, you're entitled to your opinions, but they don't change or reflect reality any more than a flawed physical theory changes or reflects nature. You can waste your energy in this fashion, or focus on a plan for other Middle Eastern countries that keeps them from imploding when the oil runs dry, or from being conquered if it becomes scarce and demand far exceeds supply.

We are discussing what is good for US in regard to its policy towards the ME problem. You might not live to see the consequences of some of the bad decisions but I am sure you don’t wish it for your children or your country men or anybody else for that matter. I believe that you as highly educated man as you sound you should have the welfare of all the people at heart. I was advocating that the US have not only to look at the benefits of even handed policy but also to be morally correct just like any good person should be. From my experience if you don’t solve the root of the problem it will come back to you again and again even in a worse condition, just like a disease. Many of the statements that you made implicitly support what I was saying. But you are definitely wrong when you said manufactured outrage, they are as real as they come.

 

[qsa]

By the time a "wait and see" strategy could pay off, there will be no oil, and therefore nothing of strategic value in the ME. If there are minor uprisings, the USA might not act, but China would crush that region for the sake of oil. The ME has no future.

China historically had not had this kind of aggressive stand towards other people. My hope is that all humans have prosperous future together. Especially with this new age of globalization through technology and knowledge which should pull us off our animalistic habits and usher us into a new age of true humanitarian sprit. Otherwise, we are all doomed, eventually.

 

[nismaratwork]

China historically had not had this kind of aggressive stand towards other people. My hope is that all humans have prosperous future together. Especially with this new age of globalization through technology and knowledge which should pull us off our animalistic habits and usher us into a new age of true humanitarian sprit. Otherwise, we are all doomed, eventually.

Yes we are, but if you had to point to a ground-zero for that doom, I think the ME is a fair prediction. As for animalistic habits, I'm not sure which animals you mean, and as for ushering in an age of true humanitarian spirit... that's just inconsistent with history and anything like humanity.