tmfs10 said:
Hmm...are those graphs for one beam or for all the beams that were collected for the final result?
I do agree though that the statistical analysis is the most likely place for an error followed by the GPS clock synchronization.
The next few weeks should happily settle the former.
This graph is for all beam.
It summarizes all the information available from the 16000 detected event.
For one beam of proton, that last about 10000 ns, there is not only a small probability to detect only one neutrino in Gran Sasso.
Those neutrinos that fall in the central part of the beam pulse do not contribute any information (except a little bit related to the irregularities in the beam amplitude).
Only those few neutrino that are correlated to the leading or trailing edge of the beam do contribute to the neutrino speed analysis.
The graph represents an average were the counting statistics determines the vertical error bar. This is Poisson statistics, absolute error is the square root of the count.
The horizontal error bar is determined by the precision of time and distance measurements.
The OPERA team claims a 6-sigma quality for their result.
The graph constructed by Henri illustrated quite clearly that this is impossible.
The uncertainty on the delay (or advance) is of the order of 100 ns.
Conclusion: there should be a mistake in the uncertainty calculation.
Probably a conceptual mistake, related to the interpratation and use of the likelihood function.
My current guess is that the likelihood function used by the OPERA team does not test with a 6-sigma precision their hypothesis on the neutrino travel time.
My intuition is that their likelihood function is a test for another hypothesis.
In addition, they did not test the likelihood of neutrino travel at the speed of light, or maybe I was not patient enough to find out in their paper.
I think I will read again the http://www.nr.com/" chapter about least squares.
It should taste very good combined with this OPERA statistical analysis.