Fredrik said:
It's important to keep in mind that this definition is intended for the case when P is a probability measure on a σ-algebra. In QM, we're dealing with a probability measure on a lattice. σ-algebras are lattices, but lattices aren't σ-algebras. QM is not probability theory, it's a generalization of probability theory.
Yes, notions of probability can be formulated in various ways. Kolmorgorov (measure on an event set), Cox (axiomatically -- which is Ballentine's starting point), and also the lesser known Whittle (generalized by
Arnold Neumaier in arXiv:0810.1019, see sect 8.2, 8.4, etc, in which states are mappings on an algebra of observables, hence more akin to the algebraic approach to quantum theory).
But in my previous post, I was trying to tease apart the more intuitive (naive?) notion of conditional probability from the the subtle modifications thereof required in QM. Ballentine delays discussion of Cox's 4th axiom in the context of QM until sect 9.6, as it involves some tricky ideas about the notion of joint probability ##P(A\& B)##, and the subtleties of noncommutative observables. Resorting to filter-type measurements to produce a new state, he eventually arrives at regarding the 4th axiom, i.e.,
$$P(A\& B|C) ~=~ P(A|C) \; P(B|A\& C)$$ as a
definition of the joint probability on the left hand side in the case of QM, but times of events A and B must be such that ##t_A<t_B##. (See middle of p248.)
IOW, he does indeed generalize the concepts involved in Cox's formulation of probability to the QM case, but in doing so (i.e., dealing with noncommutativity) he is forced to introduce time ordering in an important way.
I have only had a quick look. So far I don't see what this has to do with the_pulp's question. Ballentine explains how to calculate probabilities of sequences of measurement results, but the_pulp only asked about the formula for the probability of a single measurement.
I was trying to highlight the difficulties and pitfalls of relating the QM squared-modulus formula to the classical notion of conditional probability. To discuss the latter properly, one must also discuss joint probability, which is problematic in QM due to noncommutativity. The_pulp was asking about physical motivations, and I think this is only possible through detailed examination of the dynamics of real measurements, which is one of the main areas in Ballentine's ch9, hence deserves careful study.
Edit 1: I now see there's been lots of posts since I started composing this one.
Edit 2: @atyy, as you can probably guess from the above, my answer to your post #48 is, broadly, "yes".
