Comparing events in two probability distributions

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the probability that an observed value from one probability distribution exceeds that from another. The context involves two samples described by normalized probability distributions, f(x) and g(x), and seeks a method to express this probability through integration.

Discussion Character

  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant inquires about expressing the probability that the observed value from sample 1 exceeds that from sample 2, suggesting that if the distributions are identical, the probability should approach 0.5.
  • Another participant suggests using a two-dimensional integral to find the solution, indicating that the correct bounds are necessary for accurate results.
  • A participant expresses uncertainty about the bounds for integration and mentions that previous attempts did not yield sensible results with actual functions.
  • Further replies emphasize the need for general solutions and suggest that visualizing the distributions in a 2D-plane might aid understanding.
  • A participant identifies themselves as a professional seeking efficient solutions, expressing frustration with the level of guidance provided, which they perceive as too vague or instructional.
  • Another participant counters that the question resembles homework and suggests that the solution can be found in textbooks, providing a specific integral expression for the probability calculation.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the nature of the inquiry, with some perceiving it as a homework-like question while others argue for a more professional context. There is no consensus on the best approach to determine the integration bounds or the appropriateness of the responses given.

Contextual Notes

Participants have not reached a resolution on the correct bounds for integration or the general solution to the problem posed. The discussion reflects varying levels of expectation regarding the type of assistance provided in the forum.

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Hi everyone,

Suppose I have two samples that can be described by an observable. Call it x. x can take on any value from 0 to infinity.

The distribution of values of x for sample 1 can be described by the normalized probability distribution f(x). The distribution of values of x for sample 2 can be described by the normalized probability distribution g(x).

If I make single independent measurements of x for both samples, how can I express the probability that the observed value of x from sample 1 exceeds the observed value of x from sample 2?

Nothing I've come up with gives me an answer that makes sense. My internal check is that if f(x) and g(x) are identical, then the probability should (I would think) approach 0.5.
 
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You need a two-dimensional integral for that - integrate over both functions with the right borders and you get the right result.
 
Right, I figured that. But what are the bounds? A friend of mine helped me come up with one possibility, but it's not giving me answers that make sense when I put my actual functions in and perform the integration.
 
Right, I figured that. But what are the bounds?
Let one integration variable be larger than the other.
 
With respect, this is not very helpful. I need a general solution.
 
And I gave you hints how to get the general solution.
It is not complicated and I think you can learn something if you try to find the integral limits on your own, but if you just want the solution: you can find it in textbooks and probably on several websites, too.

A sketch with the distributions in a 2D-plane might help.
 
Hi mfb,
I appreciate the attempt at Socratic instruction, but I did not post this in the homework section on purpose. I'm a professional PhD chemist trying to solve a problem in an expedient fashion. Vague hints are not what I'm after, nor am I looking for a remedial course in calculus. I mistook this for a place where science professionals could seek help from mathematics experts, but I see it is more geared toward students. So I will find other sources for answers to my question.
Thanks for your time anyway.
 
I just don't consider myself as a replacement for textbooks. This subforum you chose is for discussions about mathematics, but your question is clearly homework-like, even if it is not actual homework. In addition, you could look up the answer yourself.
It is as elementary as finding the probability that a variable is positive - where this variable is the difference between your two measurements.

$$\int_{-\infty}^\infty \int_y^\infty f(x) g(y) dx dy$$ gives the probability that y is larger than x.
 

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