Conditional probability question

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Homework Help Overview

The discussion revolves around a conditional probability problem involving an insurance company's employee distribution across three offices and their managerial status. Participants are exploring how to calculate the total proportion of managers and the probability of a randomly chosen manager working in a specific office.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Conceptual clarification, Mathematical reasoning

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • The original poster attempts to calculate the total proportion of managers and expresses uncertainty about applying conditional probability for the second part of the question. Some participants discuss the necessary probabilities to find the conditional probability of a manager working in office A.

Discussion Status

Participants are actively engaging with the problem, with some providing calculations and others confirming the correctness of the approach. There is a focus on verifying the steps taken to arrive at the conditional probability.

Contextual Notes

The original poster mentions a background in probability following calculus, indicating varying levels of familiarity with the topic among participants.

fobster
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An insurance company runs three offices, A, B and C. The company's employess are distirbuted as follows; 30% work in office A, 20% in Off. B and 50% in Off. C.
In office A 10% are managers, in office B 20% are managers and in office C 5% are managers

a. What is the total proportion of managers in the company?
b. If a member of staff, randomly chosen, turns out to be a manager, what is the probability that she works in office A.

I've worked out part a, (0.3*0.1)+(0.2*0.2)+(0.5*0.05)=0.03+0.04+0.025=0.0 95 or 9.5%

I'm uncertian about part b though, I think it has something to do with conditional probability which is p(b given a)=p(a and b) divided by p(a), I think.

Thanks for the help. Edit: I did probability after calculus, but I don't know about the rest of you. That's why I posted it here.
 
Last edited:
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Well, you know the chance of a person being a manager; you also know the chance of the person being BOTH a manager and in office A, so you've got what you need to find out the chance of a manager being in A..
 
So is this right?

p(a manager and in office A)=0.3*0.1=0.03

p(a manager)=0.095

0.03/0.095=0.31579
 
Should be right.
 

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