COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[Jarvis323]

The death rate is lower, but many (I've heard 15% of COVID-19 patients) have long-term adverse health effects, e.g., possible neurological damage, cardiovascular damage, and damage to various organs, even if they do not have permanent lung damage. Based on 2.9 million cases in the US, then more than 400,000 people have long term adverse health effects.

That is true. I've even heard of people with very mild cases finding that their lungs have been damaged. It's quite scary considering that we still don't know all of the long term damage it may be causing. And I've heard that many survivors of severe cases end up with severe kidney damage and must go on dialysis.

 

[atyy]

Good points. I think the 10x seems to be a ballpark or order of magnitude estimate. I'd like to know how that number is determined, and how it relates to R_o. R_o is an epidemiological number, and from I can see from super-spreading events, it seems largely circumstantial.

I'd guess it's a ballpark and does not refer to R. I think it refers to lab experiments reported in https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2020.06.043 where they put the variants into other viruses (not coronaviruses), and measure the infectious titer. Referring to Fig 6A-C and the legend on p16, one variant has infectious titers that are 3 to 6 times greater. I don't know how that translates into R.

They state limitations of the study
"Shifts in frequency towards the G614 variant in any given geographic region could in principle result from either founder effects or sampling biases; it was the consistency of this pattern across regions where both forms of the virus were initially co-circulating that led us to suggest that the G614 form might be transmitted more readily due to an intrinsic fitness advantage ...

Infectiousness and transmissibility are not always synonymous, and more studies are needed to determine if the D614G mutation actually led to an increase number of infections, not just higher viral loads during infection."

Related paper
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.12.148726v1

 

[Astronuc]

An additional thought on the R₀; at work we received travel advisories about the potential to be infected on a plane, for example. A diagram (assuming no one wearing a mask) indicated that folks in the rows ahead and behind could be infected by one sitting in a given row (in a middle seat of 3), and certainly the folks in adjacent seats, indicating at least an R₀ between 2 and 8. A person sitting in an aisle seat could infect others sitting across the aisle, then R₀ could increase to as much as 17 (8+9) in a typical 2x3 seating arrangement. If an infected person traverses the aisle, then it's possible many more (tens/dozens) could be infected.

 

[Zap]

Is the media's claim that the protests and riots did not contribute to the second surge well founded? I find it hard to believe. If I remember correctly, reopening was occurring at around the same time. It might be worth noting that protesting is still occurring.

Anyone else suffering from lack of motivation during this thing? I've been cooped up in my room for months now, and I lost focus a long time ago. I don't know how I can live a productive life anymore.

 

[chemisttree]

Is the media's claim that the protests and riots did not contribute to the second surge well founded? I find it hard to believe. If I remember correctly, reopening was occurring at around the same time. It might be worth noting that protesting is still occurring.

I think that’s right (bolded) but I don’t have any data to back it up. In San Antonio we are seeing a big spike. Something like 1,300 new cases just today. We haven’t had large scale protests that could explain those numbers. Hidalgo county in deep south Texas is on emergency stay inside orders. I’ve not heard of any protests down there that could explain their numbers. McAllen Texas is not a hotbed of BLM protests. There are no free hospital beds in the Valley (Rio Grande Valley) right now.

This spike is about people getting tired of the restrictions on their lives meeting a relaxation of distancing and business closures rules. There is really nothing else we can do in response except flatten the curve. It’s here today and it’s here to stay. We’re going to be wearing masks for some time to come. They’ve told us at work that we are going to be telecommuting at least through August. Two months more... minimum.

 

[chemisttree]

As far as "titrating limited healthcare resources", that's back to "flatten the curve". We seem to have moved beyond that, but in any event, if R0 is 20 you aren't going to be able to flatten that.

Because of the exponential nature, a factor 10 more contagious will have enormous impact.

The D614G mutation is responsible for the increase in infectiveness and that strain has been seen in 70% of cases back in April. It’s likely much more prevalent today. This came into the US from Europe and is responsible for the surge seen in New York most likely. New York flattened the curve so it’s possible. New York is somehow managing to keep the Ro close to 1 so it’s unlikely to currently have an Ro of ~20.

 

[Astronuc]

I was collecting data periodically from https://ncov2019.live/data/unitedstates
Their number disagree with other sites, and with some data from some states, but it's useful in ranking the states (over 3 months: April, May and June, and 3 days into July or about 94 days into July):

Date       31-Mar-20                    3-Jul-20
            Positive                    Positive
TOTAL        181,906     TOTAL         2,890,588
New York      75,795     New York        420,774
New Jersey    18,696     California      252,252
Michigan       7,615     Texas           190,387
California     7,453     Florida         178,594
Florida        6,338     New Jersey      176,455
Massachusetts  5,752     Illinois        146,872
Washington     5,250     Massachusetts   109,628
Louisiana      5,237     Pennsylvania     93,418
Illinois       5,057     Arizona          91,872
Pennsylvania   4,843     Georgia          90,493
Georgia        3,817     Michigan         72,175
Texas          3,186     North Carolina   70,562
Colorado       2,627     Maryland         68,961
Connecticut    2,571     Virginia         64,393
Ohio           2,199     Louisiana        63,289
Indiana        2,159     Ohio             55,763
Tennessee      2,026     Tennessee        48,712
Maryland       1,660     Indiana          46,915
North Carolina 1,498     Connecticut      46,717
Wisconsin      1,351     Alabama          41,865
Missouri       1,327     South Carolina   41,532
Arizona        1,289     Minnesota        37,624
Virginia       1,250     Washington       35,641
Nevada         1,113     Colorado         33,612
Alabama          974     Iowa             30,463
Mississippi      937     Wisconsin        30,317
South Carolina   925     Mississippi      29,684
Utah             887     Utah             23,866
Minnesota        629     Missouri         23,717
Oregon           606     Arkansas         22,622
Oklahoma         565     Nevada           20,718
Arkansas         508     Nebraska         19,660
Iowa             497     Rhode Island     16,991
Dist of Columbia 495     Kentucky         16,376
Kentucky         480     Kansas           16,005
Idaho            476     Oklahoma         15,069
Kansas           428     New Mexico       12,776
Rhode Island     408     Delaware         11,923
New Hampshire    314     Dist of Columbia 10,435
Maine            303     Oregon            9,636
Vermont          293     Puerto Rico       7,683
New Mexico       281     Idaho             6,994
Delaware         264     South Dakota      6,978
Puerto Rico      239     New Hampshire     5,857
Hawaii           204     North Dakota      3,722
Montana          185     Maine             3,373
Nebraska         153     West Virginia     3,126
West Virginia    145     Wyoming           1,582
North Dakota     122     Vermont           1,236
Alaska           119     Montana           1,128
Wyoming          109     Alaska            1,063
South Dakota     101     Hawaii              975

Guam              69     Guam                280
US Virgin Islands 30     US Virgin Islands    98
N. Mariana Islands 2     N. Mariana Islands   31
                    
Total deaths (includes some presumptive deaths)
               3,655                     132,101
data from https://ncov2019.live/data/unitedstates
Not in March 31 data but included in July 3:
                         Veteran Affairs  24,111
                         U.S. Military    18,071
                         Federal Prisons   7,798
                         Navajo Nation     7,613

Covidtracking.com reports
Total positive 199,707 and 4,216 deaths on March 31
Total positive 2,786,059 and 122,158 deaths on July 3
https://covidtracking.com/data
https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily

Data is constantly updated and corrected by the states.
It is not clear that each website corrects historic data.

 

[morrobay]

The D614G mutation is responsible for the increase in infectiveness and that strain has been seen in 70% of cases back in April. It’s likely much more prevalent today. This came into the US from Europe and is responsible for the surge seen in New York most likely. New York flattened the curve so it’s possible. New York is somehow managing to keep the Ro close to 1 so it’s unlikely to currently have an Ro of ~20.

So if the surge in cases in the U.S. are from strain(s) from Europe. Then what is going so wrong in the U.S. ?
The population combining U.K., Spain, Germany and Russia are apprx that of the U.S. But their cases are apprx 1.5 million and the U.S. cases are apprx 2.5 million. Could it be that the U.S. population is in poorer health in general while taking more medications and higher rates of diabetes , hypertension and obesity ?

 

[PeroK]

So if the surge in cases in the U.S. are from strain(s) from Europe. Then what is going so wrong in the U.S. ?
The population combining U.K., Spain, Germany and Russia are apprx that of the U.S. But their cases are apprx 1.5 million and the U.S. cases are apprx 2.5 million. Could it be that the U.S. population is in poorer health in general while taking more medications and higher rates of diabetes , hypertension and obesity ?

One comparison would be between the USA and the five largest Western European countries: Germany, UK, Italy, France and Spain. The populations are rougly equal. The USA has more than twice as many cases, but a much lower death rate. There have been more deaths in total in those five European countries than in the USA.

The current resurgence of the number of cases in the USA is greater than anything in the first wave across the US and Western Europe, but the death rate remains low.

I posted some figures a few pages back on a comparison of death rates globally.

The death rate in the UK is extraordinarily high (3-4 times as high as the USA), although there's been very little analysis of this by the news media here.

 

[hmmm27]

Is the media's claim that the protests and riots did not contribute to the second surge well founded?

The article that I read cited testing of area residents - not protesters/rioters - IIRC less than two weeks after a protest in that area. Draw your own conclusions.

Maybe society should consider a temporary suspension of civil lefts.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Covidtracking.com reports

Do you understand the single-day spike in deaths in late June?

 

[Astronuc]

Do you understand the single-day spike in deaths in late June?

I believe there was one day when one of the states reported previously unreported deaths, but I don't know the time period. In March, I noticed that some data changed due to corrections/revisions. Different states have different reporting methods, and within states, different health departments may do things differently.

It appears that the bump from June 24 to June 25 has to do with the way NJ reports data, and how the covidtracking site uses (manipulates?) the data. On June 25, NJ began reporting total probable deaths, which on the June 25 was about 1854 and so NJ numbers jumped. California had reported about 100, Florida 46, Texas 47, and other states lesser numbers.https://covidtracking.com/data/state/california#historical
California deaths
Thu Jun 25 2020 5,733
Wed Jun 24 2020 5,632

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/florida#historical
Florida deaths
Thu Jun 25 2020 3,423
Wed Jun 24 2020 3,377

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-jersey#historical
New Jersey Deaths
Thu Jun 25 2020 14,872 this is dubious, and that and successive numbers should have a caveat
Wed Jun 24 2020 12,995
https://covidtracking.com/screenshots/NJ/NJ-20200625-184444.png

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/texas#historical
Texas deaths
Thu Jun 25 2020 2,296
Wed Jun 24 2020 2,249

I'm aware that counties and states have had concerns about how to report some deaths with multiple co-morbities, and deaths where a COVID test was not performed by the patients had symptoms or COVID or SARS-like illness.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I'm away that counties and states have had concerns about how to report some deaths with multiple co-morbities,

There was also a change in Medicare coding. Reimbursements for "Disease X with Covid" are different for "Covid with Disease X" and in fact changed. So I would expect the statistics to follow suit.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Covidtracking.com reports

One can make a number of interesting plots, especially if one enters in population (by hand, unfortunately) to normalize. Some have a ready explanation, others are more puzzling.

There is a strong correlation between hospitalizations and deaths, which is what I would have expected. (Note that this is actually "in a hospital today today" vs. "total deaths".) There is also a strong correlation between fraction testing positive and fraction hospitalized. Again, what I expected. The curve looks almost quadratic, i.e. as if the death rate depends on the square of the positive-testing fraction, which I am going to assume is just random noise.

This would suggest that the fraction testing positive would be strongly correlated with the fraction hospitalized. It is correlated, but there's a lot more spread.

Plotting the testing fraction vs. positivity fraction shows that they are largely independent of each other, which is what I would expect. There is a slight positive correlation, which I don't understand and a strong positive correlation at low testing rates (which are also low positivity rates). The states are AK, MT, HI, WV and VT.

 

[mfb]

The current resurgence of the number of cases in the USA is greater than anything in the first wave across the US and Western Europe, but the death rate remains low.

Deaths are always behind new cases. Give it two weeks and I expect new deaths in the US to rise, at least if states report them accurately.

 

[Zap]

Many protesters were from out of state, if I heard correctly. It would be tough to conclude whether they did or did not contribute to the resurgence based on whether a re-surging area had protests or not. It sounds crazy to say that the protests did not lead to spreading the virus, as the media claims.

Brazil is approximately like United States in population. Brazil has been pretending like the virus does not exist this entire time, and still their numbers are not nearly as bad as ours. So, somehow a country that completely ignored the pandemic is doing a better job at containing it than we are.

 

[PeroK]

Brazil is approximately like United States in population. Brazil has been pretending like the virus does not exist this entire time, and still their numbers are not nearly as bad as ours. So, somehow a country that completely ignored the pandemic is doing a better job at containing it than we are.

There's no plausible analysis of the the global data. In my opinion there must be geo-political factors at play. It's not clear what data you can trust.

The death rate in Western Europe (and more recently the UK in particular) is out of all proportion to the rest of the world, with the possible exception of Mexico.

There are, for example, some countries with large numbers where almost no one dies.

 

[mfb]

Brazil is approximately like United States in population. Brazil has been pretending like the virus does not exist this entire time, and still their numbers are not nearly as bad as ours. So, somehow a country that completely ignored the pandemic is doing a better job at containing it than we are.

~45,000 new cases and ~1200 deaths per day in Brazil, if I scale that to the population of the US it would be ~73,000 and ~1900. The actual US numbers are ~55,000 and ~500. Per capita Brazil reports 50% more new cases and 4 times the deaths. And that despite concerns that they miss even more cases and deaths than the US.
New cases are currently going up in both countries, we'll see how the situation evolves.

 

[OmCheeto]

For the life of me, I can't see anything special about Brazil.
Like lots of nations, the disease came later than sooner.
But like all* the nations, sooner or later, they are going to catch up.
My maths predicts that between July 14th and July 23rd, Brazil will reach cumulative deaths/million parity with the USA.

--------
* Maybe not Singapore. Now there's an anomaly. Though I do like the explanation I've seen as to why it's anomalous.

ps. I am no Nate Silverman, so please don't share my graphs with the news.

 

[morrobay]

Now Bloomberg television is showing the Boston Pops 4 July celebration. Indoors with people without masks singing loudly standing next to others on and off stage. This I cannot fathom.

 

[jasonRF]

The Boston Pops on TV is mostly a highlights reel of past performances - the sing-alongs are from the past 3 years I believe. According to the Boston Globe, there are no public fireworks displays in the state this month. I live in Massachusetts, and of course the private fireworks have been nonstop around my house since sunset. Usually they go until midnight or so, even though they are illegal and all of the programmable signs on the freeway have been warning of jail time and fines for at least a week now. It is part of the charm of living here.

EDIT: added a few things below. Note that most folks around here take the virus pretty seriously; in our county we are around 120 deaths per 100,000 population. Many folks, including myself, know someone who has died from this disease. Anyway, from bostonpopsjuly4th.org:

THIS YEAR’S BOSTON POPS FIREWORKS SPECTACULAR—A BOSTON POPS SALUTE TO OUR HEROES—WILL BE AVAILABLE ONLY ON TELEVISION, RADIO, AND DIGITAL MEDIA; A LIVE PERFORMANCE, INCLUDING FIREWORKS, ON THE CHARLES RIVER ESPLANADE WILL NOT TAKE PLACE, DUE TO PUBLIC HEALTH CONCERNS RELATED TO THE SPREAD OF COVID-19

 

[Swamp Thing]

Anyone else suffering from lack of motivation during this thing? I've been cooped up in my room for months now, and I lost focus a long time ago. I don't know how I can live a productive life anymore.

But what's the point of living a productive life?

 

[Zap]

But what's the point of living a productive life?

Question to that is easy -> to reproduce and provide for your offspring

India is a country interesting to look at. We can see a steady almost exponential looking curve for their running sum of total cases per day. It has not slowed down yet.

 

[Rive]

Brazil is approximately like United States in population. Brazil has been pretending like the virus does not exist this entire time, and still their numbers are not nearly as bad as ours.

I wonder if that still works with excess death statistics instead of official reports.

 

[mfb]

I wonder if that still works with excess death statistics instead of official reports.

It doesn't even work with the official numbers, as I calculated here.

 

[bhobba]

Oxford vaccine latest:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...ord-university-is-leading-in-the-vaccine-race

Should it actually work (and evidently being safe and at least 50% effective is the hurdle) it is truly amazing how quickly it will be produced (production has started already so it will be available immediately it is shown to work):

'The vaccine is grown inside cells that are cultured in vats called bioreactors. Production starts small, at 200 litres. When AstraZeneca is happy with what it produces in the smallest bioreactor it will scale up production. Four bioreactors of 2000 litres can produce a billion doses in two months. Although AstraZeneca is not a vaccine company, the processes for producing a vaccine are similar to those it uses for its biotechnology products.'

I know it is aiming to have 2 billion doses ready to go when approved by end September, with distribution in October, although some places, depending on how bad the disease is controlled (eg Australia) may wait until further trials are completed, and early 2021 looks a more likely date for them. This is an amazing result, a triumph of our science and technology on par with the Moon Landing and Manhattan Project. Is this the spark that will ignite the passion for STEM in our young?

2 Billion is a lot - but Bill Gates thinks we will need 7 billion and, as mentioned before, is determined to ensure we will have it:
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...accines-to-fight-coronavirus-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

As he says manufacturing 7 vaccines in parallel with stage 3 trials will cost him Billions, but in economic terms alone, not even considering lives saved, will save the world trillions.

Thanks
Bill

 

[kadiot]

I had a swab done to test for COVID-19 due to shortness of breath because my blood pressure rises after eating crispy pork. The result will be communicated to me within 24 hours (if positive) OR within 72 hours (if negative). Can a Vicks Vaporub affect sensitivity, specificity of test results? I used Vicks VapoRub to my nose few minutes before going to the ER for certain tests, including COVID-19 test.

 

[atyy]

I had a swab done to test for COVID-19 due to shortness of breath because my blood pressure rises after eating crispy pork. The result will be communicated to me within 24 hours (if positive) OR within 72 hours (if negative). Can a Vicks Vaporub affect sensitivity, specificity of test results? I used Vicks VapoRub to my nose few minutes before going to the ER for certain tests, including COVID-19 test.

It shouldn't affect the test results, assuming its a nasal swab and PCR test. If you just breathed the vapor, it won't affect the results. If you applied the ointment, I imagine it could affect the swabbing - but the typical nasal swab is taken from a region far back enough that you cannot reach it by yourself.

 

[Vanadium 50]

cells that are cultured in vats

I read that as "cells that are cultured in bats" and thought "isn't that how this all started?"

 

[Vanadium 50]

hould it actually work (and evidently being safe and at least 50% effective is the hurdle)

"Safe" is not so simple. There was the French trial of BIA 10-2474 which killed a trial subject and left a number of others brain damaged. That's out of 90 given the drug. Bial, the company producing the drug, obviously felt that it was safe enough for trials. Equally obviously, it wasn't.

How many lives will this vaccine save. 10⁵ maybe? Maybe even a few 10⁵? And you need a few 10⁹ doses? So you need a serious adverse reaction rate of 10^-4 or better, which means you need trials with ~10⁵ people. That's a lot. It would be the largest clinical trial by far - approaching the totality of all clinical trials.

 

[mfb]

How many lives will this vaccine save.

Keeping people somewhere between a difficult economic situation and a complete lockdown isn't sustainable forever, and it doesn't look like we can eradicate it without a vaccine. Some countries might be able to if they close all their borders, but that isn't a good long-term plan either. If most people get the disease we are looking at over 10⁷ deaths unless treatment improves significantly.
The Oxford vaccine candidate has a study in Brazil with 5000 people, a study in the UK with 4000 (planned: 10,000 more), and a study in South Africa where I don't find the number of participants - it will find 10^-3 risks.

I would be surprised if all vaccine candidates fail horribly in phase 3 studies. We probably don't have the decision vaccine or not, we have the decision when to vaccinate how many. Do we start vaccinating everyone we can as soon as the phase 3 trials concluded and doses are available? Do we make even larger follow-up studies? Waiting will kill people, but we get better estimates of the risks the vaccines have. Is that worth the additional deaths?

Currently we have about 5000 confirmed deaths per day, and who knows how many more that don't make it into the statistics. If that number stays constant: Can you slow down the pandemic notably if you vaccinate 5 million healthcare workers and other high-risk people in the countries that are most affected? Not only do we know it won't kill as many as the disease (assuming the phase 3 studies are successful for some candidate): It will also make us sensitive to 10^-4 and maybe even 10^-5 risks.

I expect to see regional variations to the response. Countries that are most affected will be more likely to recommend vaccinations, while countries with a very low number of cases might wait a bit longer. Similarly, in these countries people with a higher risk are more likely to get vaccinated early.

We won't have any long-term study for a long time, obviously. That's a risk we have to take if we don't want this pandemic to go on for much longer.

 

[bhobba]

That's a lot. It would be the largest clinical trial by far - approaching the totality of all clinical trials.

Yes - I do not think we have ever tried to vaccinate everyone. Even a small adverse reaction rate will lead to a lot with whatever it is. But is it a lot better than the pandemic?

Thanks
Bill

 

[phinds]

Yes - I do not think we have ever tried to vaccinate everyone.

Nor will we this time, at least in the USA. Well, we might TRY, but we won't come anywhere near close to succeeding. The problem with anti-vaxers is that since they have arrived at their decision via false data and/or illogical thinking, you can't reason with them so nothing short of a government mandate, which isn't going to happen in the USA at least, will get them to get vaccinated.

This is NOT a trivial subset of the population in the USA. Something like 30% depending on what report you read.

 

[Vanadium 50]

But is it a lot better than the pandemic?

BIA 10-2474 would kill 80 million people, leave 80 million others as vegetables, and cause permanent brain damage in 240 million others. And we thought that was safe.

I don't see how we will test enough people to ensure safety over billions of doses. Well, actually I know exactly how we will do it - we'll test it on the poor. I just don't like that answer.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Yes - I do not think we have ever tried to vaccinate everyone.

There are some diseases for which we try to vaccinate nearly everyone. For example, close to half of all adults in the US get annual flu vaccines, and the number could be as high as 80% of all children in certain states (MA has the highest rate).

Of course, we have much more experience with influenza vaccines, so the safety profile is much more known that a Coronavirus vaccine; thus, there is good reason to be concerned about potential safety for a COVID-19 vaccine. Even efforts to rush development of pandemic flu vaccines have caused problems in the past. With political pressure to develop a vaccine, it will definitely be important to ensure that the vaccine is not rushed to the public without sufficient safety and efficacy testing.

BIA 10-2474 would kill 80 million people, leave 80 million others as vegetables, and cause permanent brain damage in 240 million others. And we thought that was safe.

I don't see how we will test enough people to ensure safety over billions of doses. Well, actually I know exactly how we will do it - we'll test it on the poor. I just don't like that answer.

There is a big difference between an untested drug targeting a new enzyme in the brain, and a vaccine (which we have much more experience developing, testing and evaluating), and but your general point about needing fairly wide-scale testing is very valid. However, there is also a difference between the confidence needed to say something is safe enough to test in phase I trials (especially, when you only consider one outlier case) versus the confidence in the safety of a treatment after it has passed phase III trials. We do know of fairly serious side effects for vaccines (e.g. Guillain-Barré syndrome), so we do have a good idea of the adverse events we should be monitoring. Of course, some of the vaccine candidates are based on new technologies (e.g. genetic vaccines or adenovirus-based vaccines), which could come with unknown risks.

 

[bob012345]

Now Bloomberg television is showing the Boston Pops 4 July celebration. Indoors with people without masks singing loudly standing next to others on and off stage. This I cannot fathom.

It looks like there was no real danger. They made it look good.

A Boston Pops Salute to Our Heroes celebrates the everyday heroes among us through music, shouts outs, and a pre-recorded fireworks display.

The program will feature previous musical performances from recent years including Andy Grammer, Leslie Odom Jr., Rhiannon Giddens, Brian Stokes Mitchell, Arlo Guthrie, and more. Rita Moreno and Amanda Gorman contribute moving narration and poetry accompanied by the masterful Boston Pops. The three-hour show also includes several newly-created recorded virtual performance pieces by Boston Symphony and Boston Pops players as well as the Middlesex Country Volunteer Fifes and Drums. Many friends of the Boston Pops also share special video messages to commemorate our nation’s birthday. Leading the celebrations is Boston Pops conductor Keith Lockhart joined by Bloomberg’s Kim Carrigan, Janet Wu, and Joe Shortsleeve.

 

[bhobba]

When I said everyone, I meant everyone in the world - not just the US or Aus. But that just makes many of issues raised worse. Stringent phase 3 safety criteria will be used I am sure, but many of these vaccines use new technology so nobody really knows long term consequences. I fear countries where it is out of control will decide to use it first - a lot of them poor - in fact CEPI wants to ensure it is freely available especially to those poor countries. Countries like Australia will probably wait because we mostly have it well under control - there is the second wave in Victoria - but that is likely to be contained in Victoria. For those that do not know the story of how the second wave occurred it has been traced back to - get this - the security guards were, how to put it, not trained that well, doing things like having sex with those quranteened .

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

Four new insights about the coronavirus. Interview with Donald G. McNeil Jr., a science and health reporter for The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/podcasts/the-daily/coronavirus-science-indoor-infection.html

1) It not only attacks lung, but it attacks the blood vessels, which are found throughout the body. It binds with the walls of the blood system and in some cases, particularly in capillaries, it causes clots, thus starving an organ or extremities of blood flow, hence oxygen.

Endothelial cell infection and endotheliitis in COVID-19
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30937-5/fulltext

2) By mutation, it may become more transmissible, but less deadly. That remains to be seen. It may be mutating every two weeks. The is no consensus on the deadliness or the degree of transmissibility of the mutated virus.

 

[kadiot]

2) By mutation, it may become more transmissible, but less deadly. That remains to be seen. It may be mutating every two weeks. The is no consensus on the deadliness or the degree of transmissibility of the mutated virus.

Yes - The D614G mutation makes the virus more infectious. There is NO evidence it makes it more deadly or virulent. However, it can spread faster and overwhelm our healthcare system if we don't double our control efforts and so it can lead to a higher number of overall deaths if we do not properly manage the number of infections.

 

[morrobay]

The D614G mutation: Replacing aspartic acid with glycine:
https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-ev...611-choe-farzan-sars-cov-2-spike-protein.html
What a difference an amino acid made. And for the benefit for some in this general discussion: One of the redundant (4^3) base codons for Aspartic acid (D) is GAT. And one of the codons for Glycine (G) is GGT. So a mutation with adenine replaced by guanine at amino acid position 614 in the the spike protein results in the amino acid Glycine displacing Aspartic acid.

 

[bhobba]

For those that do not know the story of how the second wave occurred it has been traced back to - get this - the security guards were, how to put it, not trained that well, doing things like having sex with those quranteened .

It's now exploding exponentially. The whole of Victoria is now quarantined and likely to be in lockdown soon. But get this - something like 1/3 of people are now refusing to be tested. Legally they can't be forced to be tested, but we never had this problem before - it was the exact opposite - they were all keen to be tested. Our PM is going to take action - refuse testing and there will be a whopping fine and you will be quarantined in a Hotel at your own expense until you are tested. This is totally un-Australian. We are a society founded on mateship and the ethos of the battler. Something has gone terribly wrong.

Not that the government is lily white. They locked down some high rise apartments that testing showed was a source of infection. But didn't immediately put procedures in place to ensure they had food, medicines etc. Australians, those still guided by mateship anyway, immediately rushed in, and at their own expense tried to get urgent supplies to the people locked down, but were prevented by the police. Evidently a large group of nurses, social workers etc has now been deployed to ensure they get what is needed. But surely it could have happened sooner.

Added Later:

For those interested the following story has been unlocked so anyone can view it:
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronavirus/residents-in-highrise-lockdown-furious-at-prisonlike-conditions/news-story/cfcfe695fb103badf6161b9da813a21a

Thanks
Bill

 

[Vanadium 50]

Whats' interesting is there was also a "mini-peak" in May: 150 cases, zero fatalities.

 

[bob012345]

When I said everyone, I meant everyone in the world - not just the US or Aus. But that just makes many of issues raised worse. Stringent phase 3 safety criteria will be used I am sure, but many of these vaccines use new technology so nobody really knows long term consequences. I fear countries where it is out of control will decide to use it first - a lot of them poor - in fact CEPI wants to ensure it is freely available especially to those poor countries. Countries like Australia will probably wait because we mostly have it well under control - there is the second wave in Victoria - but that is likely to be contained in Victoria. For those that do not know the story of how the second wave occurred it has been traced back to - get this - the security guards were, how to put it, not trained that well, doing things like having sex with those quranteened .

Thanks
Bill

It's hard to blame them when Dr. Fauci said a while back that it was ok to 'hook up' with random strangers as long as both wore a mask.

 

[Astronuc]

Reuters reports that Cuba is testing two drugs that apparently mitigate the inflammatory response (cytokine storm) associated with SARS-CoV-2.

It [Cuba government] ascribes the recent reduction in deaths of severely ill COVID-19 patients largely to the use beginning in April of two drugs that appear to help calm the “cytokine storm,” a dangerous overresponse by the immune system in which it attacks healthy tissue as well as the invading virus.

One is itolizumab, a monoclonal antibody produced in Cuba and elsewhere. The other is a peptide that Cuba says its biotech industry discovered and has been testing for rheumatoid arthritis in Phase II clinical trials.

“Some 80 percent of patients who end up in critical condition are dying. In Cuba, with the use of these drugs, 80 percent of those who end up in critical or serious condition are being saved,” President Miguel Diaz-Canel said on Thursday in a meeting shown on state television.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cuba-idUSKBN22Y2Y4

 

[bhobba]

It's hard to blame them when Dr. Fauci said a while back that it was ok to 'hook up' with random strangers as long as both wore a mask.

You just shake your head. The advice is 15 minutes of close contact is enough to get it - how much closer contact can you get than sex. And you can also catch it not just from breath, but from bodily secretions. That's how they are finding hotspots - analysing effluent.

I just saw my Rheumatologist today and asked his view. It's the same as mine gleaned from here - this thing is just so damn contagious. About 3000 people die each year from flu in Aus - so far only 106 has died here from Covid. So on the surface it seems not that dangerous. But that's because of the precautions we are taking - if they fail it will run wild and we will have many more deaths than the flu. I also asked about hydroxychloroquine. He uses it all the time (not on me though - it's contraindicated if you have psoriasis and/or psoriatic arthritis like I do) and said he thinks it's BS - it takes 6 weeks to work so how can it be used as a treatment? Interestingly he told me there was evidence that the Biologic I am on protects against the Cytokine Storm many Covid victims die from. My relief was palpable - I was really worried it put me at greater risk.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Reuters reports that Cuba is testing two drugs that apparently mitigate the inflammatory response (cytokine storm) associated with SARS-CoV-2.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cuba-idUSKBN22Y2Y4

They both sound like Biologics similar to what I take that my Rheumatologist said is protective.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bob012345]

You just shake your head. The advice is 15 minutes of close contact is enough to get it - how much closer contact can you get than sex. And you can also catch it not just from breath, but from bodily secretions. That's how they are finding hotspots - analysing effluent.

I just saw my Rheumatologist today and asked his view. It's the same as mine gleaned from here - this thing is just so damn contagious. About 3000 people die each year from flu in Aus - so far only 106 has died here from Covid. So on the surface it seems not that dangerous. But that's because of the precautions we are taking - if they fail it will run wild and we will have many more deaths than the flu. I also asked about hydroxychloroquine. He uses it all the time (not on me though - it's contraindicated if you have psoriasis and/or psoriatic arthritis like I do) and said he thinks it's BS - it takes 6 weeks to work so how can it be used as a treatment? Interestingly he told me there was evidence that the Biologic I am on protects against the Cytokine Storm many Covid victims die from. My relief was palpable - I was really worried it put me at greater risk.

Thanks
Bill

The latest study I saw showed HCQ does work but it needs to be started early and it works best not by itself but in combination with zinc and another drug. Six weeks to work doesn't sound correct. Also, people with O type blood seem to get less severe infections.

 

[Astronuc]

June 11, 2020 - The D614G mutation in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein reduces S1 shedding and increases infectivity
https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-ev...611-choe-farzan-sars-cov-2-spike-protein.html

 

[kadiot]

Off-topic...

Again I ask.
Why China, again?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/06/...YMCJ6OeOJ8Cza5ypLIdG5Sg-d7y7Br8Iti8SpbuYvqeVU

 

[Jarvis323]

Off-topic...

Again I ask.
Why China, again?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/06/asia/china-mongolia-bubonic-plague-intl-hnk-scli-scn/index.html?utm_source=fbCNN&utm_term=link&utm_content=2020-07-06T07:31:09&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR2eO-255pTO98YMCJ6OeOJ8Cza5ypLIdG5Sg-d7y7Br8Iti8SpbuYvqeVU

Here is some background on the plague in recent years. Cases have emerged in many countries. As recently as 2018 in Idaho. There's no reason to single out China on this.

Globally between 2010 and 2015 there were 3248 documented cases, which resulted in 584 deaths.[1] The countries with the greatest number of cases are the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Madagascar, and Peru.[1]

For over a decade since 2001, Zambia, India, Malawi, Algeria, China, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo had the most plague cases with over 1,100 cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo alone. From 1,000 to 2,000 cases are conservatively reported per year to the WHO.[20] From 2012 to 2017, reflecting political unrest and poor hygienic conditions, Madagascar began to host regular epidemics.[20]

Between 1900 and 2015, the United States had 1,036 human plague cases with an average of 9 cases per year. In 2015, 16 people in the Western United States developed plague, including 2 cases in Yosemite National Park.[21] These US cases usually occur in rural northern New Mexico, northern Arizona, southern Colorado, California, southern Oregon, and far western Nevada.[22]

In November 2017, the Madagascar Ministry of Health reported an outbreak to WHO (World Health Organization) with more cases and deaths than any recent outbreak in the country. Unusually most of the cases were pneumonic rather than bubonic.[23]

In June 2018, a child was confirmed to be the first person in Idaho to be infected by bubonic plague in nearly 30 years.[24]

A couple died in May 2019, in Mongolia, while hunting marmots.[25] Another two people in the province of Inner Mongolia, China were treated in November 2019 for the disease.[26]

On July 2020, in Bayannur, Inner Mongoliaof China it was reported that a case of bubonic plague happened since the last case on May across the border of Inner Mongolia. Then later, the authorities issued a third-level of warning for plague prevention that will last till the end of the year. [27]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bubonic_plague