COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[mfb]

Update from Israel
Two weeks after the second dose, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine reduces the risk to die by ~98.9% and the risk of serious illness by ~99.2%. That's not exactly 100%, but pretty close. Israel had 2000 pandemic deaths this year with only a smaller fraction of the population being in the "two weeks after the second dose" group, so this ~1.1% risk is probably just a handful of deaths.
Here I don't know if they mean symptomatic infections or all infections. The latter would be revolutionary:

According to the data, after one week, the vaccine is 91.9 percent effective in preventing the illness altogether. After two weeks, it jumps to 95.8 percent.

 

[nsaspook]

Lets see what the pandemic forecasting models say now.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/forecasts-cases.html

 

[Astronuc]

February 22, 2021 - Covidtracking - https://covidtracking.com/data
In the US
Covid-positive cases (confirmed+probable): cumulative 27,932,810, new today 52,530
Currently/now Hospitalized 55,403, in ICU 11,536, on Ventilator 3,804
Covid-19, deaths (confirmed+probable): cumulative 490,382, new today 1,235

Positive cases should exceed 28 million by Wednesday, February 24.
Deaths will probably exceed 500 K by February 28.

CA 3,446,611 Cases, 49,338 deaths
TX 2,594,466 Cases, 41,407 deaths
FL 1,838,745 Cases, 30,595 deaths
NY 1,584,931 Cases, 37,941 deaths
IL 1,175,655 Cases, 22,506 deaths

The COVID Tracking Project will stop collecting data on March 7, 2021

ncov2019.live/data/unitedstates has US at 512,526 deaths, new +1,309, already exceeding 500K, >28.8 million cases

 

[mfb]

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20210217_39/
Australia has started vaccinations.
New Zealand has started vaccinations.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/lifestyle/wellbeing/south-korea-to-begin-using-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccines-on-feb-27-pm-says/ar-BB1dS7k5
It's complicated in Taiwan
Unless I missed something all highly developed countries have now started vaccinations or (see above) plan to do so as soon as possible.

210 million doses have been administered worldwide, or 2.7 per 100. The current rate is ~5 million/day: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

 

[WWGD]

Is it fair to assume that " Internationalism" has taken a hit given its biological implications and its correlation with the number of cases/deaths( meaning the number ( and rate) of cases/deaths is higher in countries with dense connections to other countries)? Is it fair to say this is a lesson most have taken out of this pandemic? If so, will we be seeing a downturn in travel, commuting ( issue at a li al level), conferences?

 

[WWGD]

My data, from Worldometer:

 

[russ_watters]

Is it fair to assume that " Internationalism" has taken a hit given its biological implications and its correlation with the number of cases/deaths( meaning the number ( and rate) of cases/deaths is higher in countries with dense connections to other countries)? Is it fair to say this is a lesson most have taken out of this pandemic? If so, will we be seeing a downturn in travel, commuting ( issue at a li al level), conferences?

I agree the premise is correct, but I don't see that the conclusion necessarily follows. Business travel had already been decreasing due to the prevalence and quality of videoconferencing and COVID likely accelerated that some. But otherwise, I don't see a reason for a connection. For me, personally, I can hardly wait for a return to leisure travel.

[Edit]
To put a finer point on it; this was almost exactly a once in a hundred year event. There should be no need for it to substantially affect long term behavior beyond basic preparedness (which will surely fade over the next 100 years).

 

[WWGD]

I agree the premise is correct, but I don't see that the conclusion necessarily follows. Business travel had already been decreasing due to the prevalence and quality of videoconferencing and COVID likely accelerated that some. But otherwise, I don't see a reason for a connection. For me, personally, I can hardly wait for a return to leisure travel.

[Edit]
To put a finer point on it; this was almost exactly a once in a hundred year event. There should be no need for it to substantially affect long term behavior beyond basic preparedness (which will surely fade over the next 100 years).

I agree with you, but The Economist has written an article ( An editorial, IIRC) to this effect. I am in agreement with you and I believe they have overstated their case.

 

[russ_watters]

I agree with you, but The Economist has written an article ( An editorial, IIRC) to this effect. I am in agreement with you and I believe they have overstated their case.

Do you have a link? Google finds me one from September...

 

[Astronuc]

Why the vaccine rollout in the U.S. has been slower than expected
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-the-vaccine-rollout-in-the-u-s-has-been-slower-than-expected

Supply shortages and delays leave Europe’s vaccination campaign in crisis
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/s...-leave-europes-vaccination-campaign-in-crisis

Twenty-six million vaccine doses were delivered to the European Union by mid-February, with around two-thirds of them used. That's just a fraction of the E.U.'s population of 450 million.

All three of the vaccines authorized for use, Moderna, BioNTech/Pfizer and Oxford-AstraZeneca, have cut deliveries in the first quarter. Pfizer has not yet delivered around 10 million doses that were due in December, leaving the bloc a third short.

Rates of production at European sites across the board have been unable to meet demand. Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, and German herself, has admitted mistakes were made.

I heard somewhere a comment about the supply of nano-lipids to the effect that the demand was underestimated. It was one of several challenges in the supply chains for the vaccine producers.

See also - https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/coronovirus-vaccine-progress.992484/

 

[vela]

Texas and other states are lifting COVID-19 restrictions.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/us/texas-and-other-states-ease-covid-19-rules-despite-warnings/ar-BB1eavh0

The move seems a bit premature to me.

 

[PeroK]

It's worth noting that the virus is raging in the Czech Repulic and to a lesser extent in Slovakia and Hungary.

The Czech Republic had few cases in the first wave last April, but since Sep 2019 over 12% of its population (of about 10 million) has tested positive. And, it has now overtaken Belgium to have the worst per-capita death rate of more than 2 people per thousand.

Since the start of the year the daily rate of positive tests has been generally in excess of 1 person in a thousand. Other countries have peaked at this level for a couple of weeks at worst. And the death rate is close to 20 per million per day.

CNN has a piece on it:

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/28/europe/czech-republic-coronavirus-disaster-intl/index.html

The other news item is that several of these eastern European countries are breaking ranks with the EU and buying the unapproved Russian vaccine.

 

[nuuskur]

In Estonia, the daily reports seldom veer under 1000 positives. Small population as it is

 

[russ_watters]

Interesting past few weeks for the overall vaccine landscape in the US, and ultimately a vastly improved outlook due to increased manufacturing capacity, including the J&J vaccine:

Notes:

• The distribution took a hit from the winter storms a few weeks ago, but re-bounded quickly. It will likely take a couple of weeks for the administration to fully absorb that (while also absorbing the big increases). 3 and 2 weeks ago are a dip and catch-up due to the storm. Last week was a surge due to 4 million stockpiled J&J vaccines being released. My expectation is there will be a bit of a drop this week as the manufacturing rate ramps up and the stockpile is gone.
• The distribution pipeline is shrinking, so I've reduced the shift in the total graphs over time to keep them aligned; from 16 days to 14 to 12.
• We're now in excess of 2 million per day administered, on average.

And:

Biden said Tuesday there will be enough COVID-19 vaccine available in May for every adult in the U.S., nearly two months earlier than his administration predicted three weeks ago, thanks to a deal brokered between pharmaceutical giants Merck and Johnson & Johnson.

That timeline didn't surprise experts. In fact, some say the U.S. could reach that milestone by mid-April.

To get there, officials plan on 400 million doses from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, enough to vaccinate 200 million people, plus an additional 100 million doses of the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine. That is more than enough for the nation's 255 million adults.

https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/covid-19-coronavirus-containment-efforts.983707/page-189

Mid-April would be really aggressive. That's 400 million more doses in about 5 weeks, or 80 million per week / 11 million per day. The ramp rate would have to increase drastically for that to happen.

 

[PeroK]

Mid-April would be really aggressive. That's 400 million more doses in about 5 weeks, or 80 million per week / 11 million per day. The ramp rate would have to increase drastically for that to happen.

The UK peaked at about 600,000 doses per day and 3 million per week in the first two weeks of February, but things have stuttered and slowed a little since then. We're only managing about 2.5 million per week now. The issue is vaccine supply, I believe.

The UK is aiming for all adults (18+) by the end of July, so you are way more ambitious than that!

Most older people (70+) took the vaccine, but it seems that more younger people aren't making appointments. I got it early to fill spare slots and we've progressed to 55-59 year olds a week or two ahead of schedule.

The issue may ultimately be getting people to take the vaccine.

 

[PeroK]

In Estonia, the daily reports seldom veer under 1000 positives. Small population as it is

Do you have any thoughts on the relatively low death rate in Estonia?

 

[pinball1970]

Do you have any thoughts on the relatively low death rate in Estonia?

population density?

less mixing?

Compared to Netherlands and Denmark that similar sizes in terms of sqr miles they have higher populations

Netherlands population is 17M Denmark 5.7M Estonia 1.3M

 

[nsaspook]

https://static.nytimes.com/email-content/NN_sample.html

Virus trends in the U.S. are improving, largely because of the rising level of immunity.

 

[mfb]

Furthermore, the analysis found a vaccine effectiveness of 94% against asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections.

https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2021/Real-World-Evidence-Confirms-High-Effectiveness-of-Pfizer-BioNTech-COVID-19-Vaccine-and-Profound-Public-Health-Impact-of-Vaccination-One-Year-After-Pandemic-Declared/default.aspx
Take the reporting path of the number into account - but this is amazing news. A 94% reduction of asymptomatic infections means a vaccination doesn't just protect the vaccinated person. It also means it's very unlikely that this person will contribute to the spread of the pandemic.
This is coming from Israel, where most infections are the "UK variant" (B.1.1.7).

 

[PeroK]

https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2021/Real-World-Evidence-Confirms-High-Effectiveness-of-Pfizer-BioNTech-COVID-19-Vaccine-and-Profound-Public-Health-Impact-of-Vaccination-One-Year-After-Pandemic-Declared/default.aspx
Take the reporting path of the number into account - but this is amazing news. A 94% reduction of asymptomatic infections means a vaccination doesn't just protect the vaccinated person. It also means it's very unlikely that this person will contribute to the spread of the pandemic.
This is coming from Israel, where most infections are the "UK variant" (B.1.1.7).

That's clearly not scientific data, but Pfizer's corporate propaganda. I'm not saying the vaccine isn't effective, but that's not an unbiased view.

Moreover, the daily infection rate in Israel is still high, despite the extent of the vaccination programme (106 doses per 100 population). There have been about 47,000 positive tests in Israel in the past fortnight. For a population of only 9.2 million that is still very high. This includes 6,000 cases in the past two days - so it's still about 3,000 per day.

That compares with 87,000 positive tests in the UK (population 68 million) in the same period. The rate of infection in Israel is still many times greater per capita than the UK. About 3-4 times higher, in fact.

There must be non-vaccination factors involved, but Israel is a warning that an extensive vaccination programme alone may not be enough.

 

[pinball1970]

That's clearly not scientific data, but Pfizer's corporate propaganda. I'm not saying the vaccine isn't effective, but that's not an unbiased view.

Moreover, the daily infection rate in Israel is still high, despite the extent of the vaccination programme (106 doses per 100 population). There have been about 47,000 positive tests in Israel in the past fortnight. For a population of only 9.2 million that is still very high. This includes 6,000 cases in the past two days - so it's still about 3,000 per day.

That compares with 87,000 positive tests in the UK (population 68 million) in the same period. The rate of infection in Israel is still many times greater per capita than the UK. About 3-4 times higher, in fact.

There must be non-vaccination factors involved, but Israel is a warning that an extensive vaccination programme alone may not be enough.

47,000 is huge. They were celebrating on the news only last month because lock down restrictions had been lifted and vaccination rate was high, over a third of the population

Lock down lifted too soon

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-...fts-first-restrictions-6-weeks-after-lockdown

 

[mfb]

That's clearly not scientific data, but Pfizer's corporate propaganda. I'm not saying the vaccine isn't effective, but that's not an unbiased view.

Israel calculated that number not Pfizer, it's just a bit difficult to get their numbers directly so I linked the press release.

Israel tests a lot of asymptomatic people now - that drives up case counts compared to countries that do not. It's also the basis of the 94% estimate. Half of the population being vaccinated still means tons of people and larger groups - especially younger people - without a vaccine.

 

[PeroK]

It looks like most of the EU has halted use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Wow!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56404542

 

[mfb]

Germany still has ~8000 COVID-19 cases per day, or 1 in 100,000 every single day.
The reported blood-clot rate is about 1 per 500,000, and matching the rate in the general population.

Even if all these blood clots would be from the vaccine - and there is no evidence that any of them would be - delaying vaccination by just a single day produces at least 5 new COVID-19 cases for every blood clot potentially avoided (e.g. by going to a different vaccine).
* Vaccines are largely given to high-risk groups first, where the rate is higher than 1 in 100,000
* Abandoning the Oxford/AZ vaccine would likely delay things by far more than a month.

 

[PeroK]

Germany still has ~8000 COVID-19 cases per day, or 1 in 100,000 every single day.
The reported blood-clot rate is about 1 per 500,000, and matching the rate in the general population.

Even if all these blood clots would be from the vaccine - and there is no evidence that any of them would be - delaying vaccination by just a single day produces at least 5 new COVID-19 cases for every blood clot potentially avoided (e.g. by going to a different vaccine).
* Vaccines are largely given to high-risk groups first, where the rate is higher than 1 in 100,000
* Abandoning the Oxford/AZ vaccine would likely delay things by far more than a month.

France and Italy, for example, have about 300 deaths per day related to COVID-19. Delaying the vaccination rollout has an associated cost related to those numbers.

The BBC news is reporting that Germany, France, Italy and Spain have all paused the rollout of the AZ vaccine. I assume that's true?

 

[mfb]

Looks like it.
If the vaccine would produce 1 in 500,000 additional blood clot rate then ~130 people in France would get it from a full Oxford/AZ vaccination. 130 blood clots in total (don't know how many would lead to deaths, but the strict upper limit is 130) vs. 300 deaths and numerous long-term health effects from COVID-19 every single day...

 

[russ_watters]

I'm chewing on the US vaccination stats more, and built a model to predict future rates and totals. It's more than just extending a curve fit. Some findings and predictions (if anyone wants to see graphs of the model, I can provide):

Goals/Commitments:

• The Biden administration's current goal is to produce enough vaccines for every adult by the end of May. That's a touch vague, as current guidance is for the vaccine to be administered to at-risk teenagers 16+. If it includes everyone 16+, that's 260 million people. Figure 4 weeks for the emptying of the distribution pipeline and we could have every adult vaccinated by the end of June. But not everyone is going to take it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...ohnson-and-johnson-covid-vaccine-partnership/
• The J&J vaccine is not currently ramping-up. There was an initial stockpile of 4M doses starting to ship on 3/1, but only 1.9 M have been administered so far, and over the past week the vaccination rate has actually dropped a bit. So I modeled that based on the assumption of a smooth ramp-up until J&J's projection of 95M doses shipped by the end of May is administered two weeks later (same link).
• 2nd doses of the Moderna & Pfizer vaccines are also not ramping-up. It's been fluctuating between 0.5 and 0.9 million per day for more than a month. Obviously that will have to change, but it is not clear if the cause of the low rate is scheduling or people just aren't taking their second doses. I'm assuming people will start getting them and have it ramping steadily to 3 million by early June.
• I have the total administered (1st + 2nd + J&J) continuing its current ramp rate. By the 2nd week in June it would reach 6 million per day if we don't run out of people to vaccinate. Currently it's about 2.5 million per day.
• There's 30 million doses of the AZ vaccine stockpiled. AZ has not applied for emergency use authorization yet, so there's a decent chance these doses don't factor into the USA's vaccination picture until we're well into the "everyone else" group if at all (more on that in the projections...). https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/11/us/politics/coronavirus-astrazeneca-united-states.html

Demographics:

• Number of people 65+: 54M
• Number of people 16+: 260M
• Assumed 2/3 eligibility: 173M (that comes out to all old people and more than half of 16-64)
• At 90% uptake: 155M (conservatively high)
• At 75% uptake: 131M (realistic I think)

Current Status:

• 116M administered
• 41M fully vaccinated, of them 1.9M from the J&J vaccine.

Projections:

• By April 10, 131M will have received at least a first dose and 75M will be fully vaccinated.
• By April 20, 155M will have received at least a first dose and 114M will be fully vaccinated. We will need to have transitioned to the "everyone else (>16)" eligibility by then or we'll start running out of people to vaccinate.
• By May 10, even at 90% uptake we'll start running out of adults to vaccinate (everyone who wants one will have at least a first dose), and the rates will start to flatten or drop. I haven't modeled how that will look.
• By May 30, every adult who wants to be vaccinated will have be fully vaccinated (234 M) if everyone lines-right up for them (so the rates don't drop).

Additional Predictions and Caveats:

• I don't know what's going to happen with kids and the vaccine. Perhaps it could be opened up to them, but I suspect after every adult is vaccinated.
• When the vaccine is opened up to "everyone else", that will include me. I'll be aggressive about scheduling, so I'll expect I can get at least the first dose (if a 2-dose vaccine) by April 10. The big caveat to that is my county/area doesn't seem to be doing a good job with distribution/administration. That may be due to state level mismanagement/prioritization. Whatever is causing that, I expect it won't impact me by the time the vaccine is plentiful enough to get to me. But they'll need to get sorted out in the next two weeks...unless that only applies to the government-run facilities. Pharmacies are also administering the vaccines, so there's a good chance I'll be getting it from a pharmacy.

Side note: My area has been re-opening, too quickly. Case rates are too high, and they've been flat for the past few weeks even as restrictions are easing. As close as we are to the finish line, I think that's dumb and I'm not easing up on my protocols. I won't be doing any indoor dining, traveling, going to the gym or permanently returning to my office, etc. until I'm fully vaccinated or the case rates drop another order of magnitude. What's another month after 12? I believe tomorrow's my 1-year anniversary of work from home.

 

[mfb]

Germany is about to restart vaccinations with the Oxford/AZ vaccine based on recommendation of the European Medicines Agency.
A group of German/Austrian researchers claims they have found a reason for observed blood clots - and also a way to treat them. This happened after Germany's decision as far as I understand.
News article

 

[mfb]

Denmark is a bit ahead (and the UK is outside the scale), but look how close many European countries are with vaccination progress - including some non-EU countries in the same region, this is not purely EU distribution of vaccines.

 

[Astronuc]

Idaho Legislature shuts down due to COVID-19 outbreak
https://apnews.com/article/legislature-coronavirus-pandemic-idaho-9cc12cf52aecb26dd4f884e752317d8c

BOISE, Idaho (AP) — The Idaho Legislature voted Friday to shut down for several weeks due to an outbreak of COVID-19.
. . . .
At least six of the 70 House members tested positive for the illness in the last week, and there are fears a highly contagious variant of COVID-19 is in the Statehouse.

“The House has had several positive tests, so it is probably prudent that the House take a step back for a couple weeks until things calm down and it’s not hot around here for COVID,” House Majority Leader Mike Moyle said before the votes.

I have an appointment for vaccination later this week, either Pfizer or Moderna.

 

[mfb]

Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020

While overall consumer traffic fell by 60 percentage points, legal restrictions explain only 7 percentage points of this. Individual choices were far more important and seem tied to fears of infection. Traffic started dropping before the legal orders were in place; was highly influenced by the number of COVID deaths reported in the county

As weaker legal orders lead to more reported COVID deaths it's not clear if weaker legal orders would have lead to a smaller or an even larger economic decline. It's only clear that it would have lead to more deaths.

 

[vela]

Rutgers will require its students to get vaccinated before returning. I'd guess a lot of schools may follow suit before reopening in fall.

 

[pinball1970]

Rutgers will require its students to get vaccinated before returning. I'd guess a lot of schools may follow suit before reopening in fall.

Hopefully

 

[bhobba]

Brisbane in lockdown again:
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/annastacia-palaszczuk-to-provide-covid19-update/news-story/021420fdfef16e9b67aaa527828d2db6?utm_source=CourierMail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editorial&utm_content=CM_LATESTNEWS_BREAKING-CUR_01&net_sub_id=285783538&type=curated&position=1&overallPos=1

I am just included - I am in the redlands.

Thanks
Bill

 

[StevieTNZ]

New Zealand seems to be the only country doing the best at preventing outbreaks. We shiftly moved to alert level 3 for Auckland and level 2 for the rest of NZ when community transmission was detected in Auckland, and we've had no community cases for quite some time now.

 

[bhobba]

New Zealand seems to be the only country doing the best at preventing outbreaks.

NZ is doing very well, a bit ahead of Aus actually. But I think Taiwan is doing best of all and is the model that should be copied. I have to also mention it varies a bit between states here in Aus. NSW is generally considered the gold standard. I would say it is on par with Taiwan. That said QLD has done virtually the same thing with its Brisbane outbreak as NZ, but many (I am not among them) think it was a bit of an overkill. I am also not enamoured with what caused it (unvaccinated front line workers spreading it), but after discussion here have calmed down a bit, realising vaccinating all front line workers as was planned (but botched) was not that easy - they would have really had to lockdown hospitals to do it. It could be done but would have been quite difficult logistically (which, ironically, they ended up doing anyway - the world works in mysterious ways). Maybe that was why it was 'botched' - when the rubber hit the road it was more difficult than first thought. Anyway 86% of front line workers are now vaccinated, and rising, so they now can, and have, introduced the rule only vaccinated front like workers can do front line jobs. Better late than never I suppose - but I may be being too hard.

Thanks
Bill

 

[JT Smith]

This is a very long thread so I apologize if this question has already been addressed here.

What I am curious about is an estimate of the risk of contracting COVID-19 after vaccination if exposed. I know there are efficacy/effectiveness measurements that are available but my understanding of those numbers is that they are relative to the non-vaccinated or placebo groups and do not provide an absolute measurement of risk if one were exposed. Of course the question of degree of exposure surely matters. To put it another way, is there enough information to estimate what the results would be for a viral challenge study?

To me this is a more important number than efficacy. If after being vaccinated I take off my mask, jump into the mosh pit, and start slam dancing with infected people, what are my odds of getting sick?

 

[PeroK]

To me this is a more important number than efficacy. If after being vaccinated I take off my mask, jump into the mosh pit, and start slam dancing with infected people, what are my odds of getting sick?

The risk to you personally depends on a number of factors, not least the incidence of infected people in your area. It depends on how many other people have been vaccinated (as that itself may reduce the number of infected people and the transmission rate of the virus).

Beyond that, it depends of course on your own profile. Without vaccination there is a distribution of outcomes, from asymptomatic to sick to very sick to hospitalised to ICU to death! With the vaccine that distribution changes radically: you are less likely to contract the virus (given the same exposure to it), less likely to become seriously ill and less likely to die. These distibutions depend on your personal profile, with a measure of randomness thrown in.

Finally, if you are young and healthy then the main risk is not to yourself but to older and/or less healthy people that you come into contact with. For one part of the population being vaccinated is largely about protecting themselves; for another part of the population being vaccinated is largely about protecting others.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

This is a very long thread so I apologize if this question has already been addressed here.

What I am curious about is an estimate of the risk of contracting COVID-19 after vaccination if exposed. I know there are efficacy/effectiveness measurements that are available but my understanding of those numbers is that they are relative to the non-vaccinated or placebo groups and do not provide an absolute measurement of risk if one were exposed. Of course the question of degree of exposure surely matters. To put it another way, is there enough information to estimate what the results would be for a viral challenge study?

To me this is a more important number than efficacy. If after being vaccinated I take off my mask, jump into the mosh pit, and start slam dancing with infected people, what are my odds of getting sick?

Say that for everyday activities, the average individual has a probability P of getting infected with COVID-19. For a vaccine that has a 90% efficiency, the average vaccinated individual would have a probability 0.1P of getting infected doing those same everyday activities. Once you start getting into very high risk activities that people in the vaccine trials were unlikely to partake in, it gets difficult to extrapolate the data from the vaccine trials (i.e. vaccine efficiency reflects the protection from infection at levels of exposure to the virus that are similar to those experienced by the "average" individual. The level of protection is likely lesser at much higher levels of exposure where the probability of infection for both unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals approaches 1).

 

[JT Smith]

Once you start getting into very high risk activities that people in the vaccine trials were unlikely to partake in, it gets difficult to extrapolate the data from the vaccine trials (i.e. vaccine efficiency reflects the protection from infection at levels of exposure to the virus that are similar to those experienced by the "average" individual. The level of protection is likely lesser at much higher levels of exposure where the probability of infection for both unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals approaches 1).

The average individual is behaving in a way that reflects the perception of risk. Specifically, wearing masks, keeping distance, avoiding crowds. Not everybody, obviously, but there is enough avoidant behavior to affect P.

If the risk of infection, even for vaccinated individuals, approaches 100% in cases of high exposure then it seems likely that it will remain prudent to continue social distancing and mask wearing for... well, probably for quite a long while into the future. I hope I'm wrong!

 

[WWGD]

The average individual is behaving in a way that reflects the perception of risk. Specifically, wearing masks, keeping distance, avoiding crowds. Not everybody, obviously, but there is enough avoidant behavior to affect P.

If the risk of infection, even for vaccinated individuals, approaches 100% in cases of high exposure then it seems likely that it will remain prudent to continue social distancing and mask wearing for... well, probably for quite a long while into the future. I hope I'm wrong!

Well, disease has stabilized at around 500k cases and 10k deaths /day. Not too great, but much better than runaway exponential growth. Still exasperating when I see people feeding the pigeons. Specially during this pandemic. " But there's no one else to feed them". I reply: Same goes for rats and roaches. Seems like a good thing, doesn't it?

 

[JT Smith]

Well, disease has stabilized at around 500k cases and 10k deaths /day. Not too great, but much better than runaway exponential growth.

Yes, it's better. And I think it's likely to get a lot better still. But given the human factor of vaccine refusal coupled with lack of availability in some parts of the world it seems to me that the risk will continue to be there at some level. If you're old or otherwise susceptible it may be too much risk. Hopefully they will develop treatments to keep people from dying and to help those who have long term disabling symptoms. The latter actually worries me more than death.

 

[bhobba]

The disease has stabilized at around 500k cases and 10k deaths /day.

IMHO that is still WAY too high, even without the vaccine. Look at Aus, Taiwan, Iceland and NZ. I know all countries do not have the natural advantage of being an island or island-continent, but when you read about Brazil (for example), you shake your head:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04...unger-patients-admitted-to-hospital/100048674

They can do what we in Aus do - one case - lockdown and tracing, which we now have down pat, starts. We are now so good that the lockdown usually lasts only 3-4 days, and they have traced everyone. Sure, it causes economic problems, but we are talking about a genuine full-blown pandemic here. I am reminded of the town in Italy that got it right at the start of the pandemic:
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ed-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo.

Iceland got it right too:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03284-3

What places that got it right show you can't let your guard down for a second. In Aus, due to bonking untrained security guards, there was a second wave in Melbourne, and something similar happened in Iceland. You must lockdown and trace, or you will suffer later, with even one case. The only discussion (sometimes quite heated) in Aus is the lockdown's extent. New South Wales does locally targeted lockdowns and is generally considered to have the gold standard in tracing. Where I am in Queensland, they do wider lockdowns, and while tracing is good, we likely could learn from NSW. In fact, we need a hi-tech Australia wide tracing system.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Ygggdrasil]

The average individual is behaving in a way that reflects the perception of risk. Specifically, wearing masks, keeping distance, avoiding crowds. Not everybody, obviously, but there is enough avoidant behavior to affect P.

If the risk of infection, even for vaccinated individuals, approaches 100% in cases of high exposure then it seems likely that it will remain prudent to continue social distancing and mask wearing for... well, probably for quite a long while into the future. I hope I'm wrong!

I don't know how high an exposure is needed to approach 100% for vaccinated individuals. It's possible that that level of virus exposure would not be reached in any real life circumstance. Furthermore, vaccines don't just protect against infection. In the case a person gets infected, the vaccine gives the immune system a head start on fighting the virus such that the vaccine prevents infections to progressing to severe disease and death. If the vaccine is not effective at preventing infection but does prevent hospitalizations and deaths, it would still be possible to return to normal life without social distancing (assuming everyone can get vaccinated).

 

[PeroK]

Yes, it's better. And I think it's likely to get a lot better still. But given the human factor of vaccine refusal coupled with lack of availability in some parts of the world it seems to me that the risk will continue to be there at some level. If you're old or otherwise susceptible it may be too much risk. Hopefully they will develop treatments to keep people from dying and to help those who have long term disabling symptoms. The latter actually worries me more than death.

After full vaccination (in the UK say), COVID will be just another minor/negligible risk in the business of living your life. In 2022, I would expect far more deaths and serious injuries from road accidents (*) than deaths and serious illnesses from COVID.

It will be interesting to see what governments do about people who refuse to be vaccinated. They may pose a risk mainly to themselves and health-care workers rather than the general public - although it will be interesting to see the attitude of coworkers.

(*) In 2019, there were 1750 deaths, 26,000 serious injuries and 153,000 total casualties in road accidents in the UK. And, unlike COVID, these are people of all ages.

 

[JT Smith]

...(assuming everyone can get vaccinated).

After full vaccination...

That's the problem though. Full vaccination isn't likely to be a reality anytime soon, if at all. Some countries will do much better than others. Here in the U.S. there may very well be a large percentage of holdouts. And worldwide it will take a long time.

So there you are, sitting next to someone on a long flight. Or in a restaurant on a vacation somewhere. Or on a subway. There is some risk that you will be exposed. Will your vaccine protect you?

At present, the CDC is ambivalent on this point.

 

[russ_watters]

IMHO that is still WAY too high, even without the vaccine. Look at Aus, Taiwan, Iceland and NZ. I know all countries do not have the natural advantage of being an island or island-continent...

They can do what we in Aus do - one case - lockdown and tracing, which we now have down pat, starts.

The problem is vastly different for countries that aren't geographically isolated than for Australia. My home state of Pennsylvania has about half the population of Australia and our best week of the pandemic was roughly equal to your worst and our worst was around 50x worse. Nobody in Australia commutes daily to New Zealand for work. Your border is much more real than the national borders in Europe and state borders in the US can ever be. That isolation limits the spread and opens-up opportunities we just don't have.

The lower baseline enables contract tracing to actually be a thing, for example. There's just no feasible way to manually contact trace 70,000 cases per week in a population of 13 million, and even though we hired thousands, we just couldn't do it.

Similarly, while I don't know if we would have even accepted military-guarded quarantines, it is a lot more difficult to guard a hundred thousand people that way than 4,000, and their complaints are much louder. But sure, maybe if we were only force-quarantining 10 or 50 people at a time, the populace would have accepted that.

The lower baseline also means the shutdowns can be used more like a surgical tool than a sledgehammer. Yes, we of course did shutdowns, but there was never an opportunity for a short duration shutdown because we never had case counts low enough to target them that way. And the longer they go, the harder they are to keep.

So while I'm happy for you guys, I don't think there is much we can learn from your model.

 

[PeroK]

So there you are, sitting next to someone on a long flight. Or in a restaurant on a vacation somewhere. Or on a subway. There is some risk that you will be exposed. Will your vaccine protect you?

I think you are exaggerating the risk. Last year when all this started people were commuting normally into London: packed onto trains, tubes and buses. If the virus spread that easily, then almost everyone would have caught the virus last February/March.

It also depends on the rate of infection around you. Let's say that 1 in 50 people has the virus, then there may still be a signifcant risk of being infected even if you've been vaccinated - although much lower than if you were not vaccinated.

But, if we get to 1 in 5000 people carrying the virus, then the chance of a vaccinated person being infected is very low - and the chance of getting seriously ill is even lower.

The other question is whether you should fly with an airline that does not require its passengers to be vaccinated. Personally, I won't fly this year if unvaccinated passengers are allowed on board.

 

[JT Smith]

I think you are exaggerating the risk. Last year when all this started people were commuting normally into London: packed onto trains, tubes and buses. If the virus spread that easily, then almost everyone would have caught the virus last February/March.

I'm not exaggerating the risk. I think it's actually pretty low even now where I am. And as more people are vaccinated it will get lower still. If the case rate drops to a minuscule level then I won't worry about the cumulative risk of numerous unprotected encounters. But if 25% of the population remains unvaccinated I'm not confident that will happen, not soon anyway.

I hope I'm being paranoid. But I have given up trying to forecast the trajectory of this pandemic. I keep seeing the horizon recede, like a mirage.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

That's the problem though. Full vaccination isn't likely to be a reality anytime soon, if at all. Some countries will do much better than others. Here in the U.S. there may very well be a large percentage of holdouts. And worldwide it will take a long time.

So there you are, sitting next to someone on a long flight. Or in a restaurant on a vacation somewhere. Or on a subway. There is some risk that you will be exposed. Will your vaccine protect you?

At present, the CDC is ambivalent on this point.

In this case, the risk is greater to the unvaccinated individuals. It looks like the vaccines are effective at preventing symptomatic disease, and in the case that a vaccinated individual does get infected, the vaccines are very effective at preventing hospitalizations and death. In that situation, the unvaccinated individuals would be risking catching the disease and having a bad outcome from the disease. Vaccinated individuals would be much less likely to catch the disease and if they did, the vaccine should make the infection lead to only a mild or moderate cold.