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News Cruz Drops Out -- Trump to Win Nomination

  1. May 3, 2016 #1

    russ_watters

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    Wow:
    http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/03/politics/indiana-primary-highlights/index.html

    Still processing, but did not see this coming even a month ago. I think he picked-up frontrunner momentum and that carried him. It never should have happened.
     
  2. jcsd
  3. May 3, 2016 #2

    Astronuc

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    Woah!

    Maybe Rubio should jump back in.
     
  4. May 4, 2016 #3

    StatGuy2000

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    As I've been following the US campaign over the past few weeks, it's become apparent that there was nothing that really could stop Trump from winning the nomination, so I'm not surprised anymore by this news.

    Now the question becomes -- can Trump actually win the presidency? That thought makes me shudder.
     
  5. May 4, 2016 #4
    If it comes down to it, IF you were forced to make a choice, who would you choose?

    I am reminded of the movie quote from war games:

    Joshua: Greetings, Professor Falken.

    Professor Falken: Hello, Joshua.

    Joshua: A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.
     
  6. May 4, 2016 #5

    jtbell

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  7. May 4, 2016 #6

    phinds

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    I admire your optimism. Of course we could but it is inherent in these situations that that does not happen.
     
  8. May 4, 2016 #7

    StatGuy2000

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    I would dispute the premise that there has been a decline in the US over the last few decades. There are problems in the US, which has emerged over the past 30-40 years, and which can be summarized as per the following:

    1. The influence of a small number of donors (whether they be wealthy individuals, corporations, or major unions) on both the Democratic and Republican parties, largely driven by the need to fund expensive TV, radio, and Internet ads. This emerged from the failure in campaign finance reform as well as the consequence of the hideous Supreme Court decision Citizens United, which essentially allowed for unchecked money to flow into campaigns.

    2. Related to #1, the increased polarization of politics in the US, largely led by the increasing extremism of the Republican party (of which Trump's nomination is the most blatant and visible manifestation).

    3. The virtual monopoly of the 2-party political system in the US.

    The problems I've listed above can be fixed. In the case of problem 1, there are grassroots organizations such as Wolf PAC that are working towards a constitutional amendment banning money in politics and establishing public financing of elections by having the call toward the amendment ratified in 2/3 of all US states.

    www.wolf-pac.com
     
  9. May 4, 2016 #8
    I'm hearing a bunch of #nevertrump conservatives consider Gary Johnson
     
  10. May 4, 2016 #9

    SteamKing

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    Well, in the U.S., it takes a 2/3 vote in both houses of congress to send a proposed constitutional amendment to the states for ratification. In order to be ratified, the legislatures of 3/4 of the states (38 states) must approve of the proposed amendment.
     
  11. May 4, 2016 #10
    There is a constitutional convention if 2/3 of the state legislatures call for it. The convention may propose one or more amendments. In practice, if a convention is immanent then Congress passes an amendment proposal to abort the convention.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2016
  12. May 4, 2016 #11
    I reside in a county which is 99% Republican. Few have anything good to say about Trump. Today the local pator said he'd voted Republican his whole life, but not this time. They went on to mourn the anticipated loss of the Senate.

    The R's completely losing control of their electorate is the most amazing political thing I've seen in my long lifetime. If the D's didn't have such an unattractive candidate it would be the biggest landslide ever.

    Question: Is this the most odious pair of candidates ever? I can't decide between this and Blaine/Garfield. Blaine had been caught taking bribes from the railroads while Garfield was supporting an illegitimate child and was credibly accused of being a date rapist.
     
  13. May 4, 2016 #12
    With 85% disapproval rate from women and similarly high disapproval rates from minorities its hard to see how it is possible. If the D's had a decent candidate one might expect a landslide of record proportions.

    I have tried to think of some event that might propel Trump to victory. Nuclear attack? Economic collapse? I don't think any of these would help him at all. H Clinton indicted? Might help a little.
     
  14. May 4, 2016 #13

    SteamKing

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    The last time a constitutional convention was held in the U.S. was 1787, so I don't think this path of amendment is very likely.

    In any event, even if 2/3 (34) of the states petition Congress for a convention, Congress is the body which actually calls an Article V convention into being. Congress is loath to do so because once an Article V convention is convened, there's no telling what changes will made be made to the document. At least by the congressional amendment process, there is only one order of business to consider.
     
  15. May 4, 2016 #14

    SteamKing

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    Your recounting of history is a little off here.

    In 1880, James Garfield (R) ran against W.S. Hancock (D) for the presidency. Earlier, James Blaine had been a candidate for the GOP nomination, but withdrew in favor of Garfield, and Blaine later served briefly in the Garfield administration as secretary of state. Blaine resigned after Garfield died in the fall of 1881 from his assassin's bullet.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_A._Garfield

    In 1884, Blaine was nominated by the GOP for the presidency after a convention fight with Pres. Arthur. In the general election, Blaine's opponent was Democrat Grover Cleveland, who was reported to be supporting a child out of wedlock.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_G._Blaine

    In any event, the election of 1884 was decided by one of the thinnest of margins, about 0.25% of the popular vole, in favor of Cleveland (the vote in the Electoral College was 219-182).
     
  16. May 4, 2016 #15

    Dotini

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    I made a post which was quoted in posts #6 and #7. Yet my post is now deleted. Why?
     
  17. May 4, 2016 #16

    Evo

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    A number of posts were deleted as they were in response to a now deleted post. Please everyone, remember to remain civil and on topic, and if you make claims that are not common knowledge, you need to provide sources.
     
  18. May 4, 2016 #17

    Dotini

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    If we are to understand the Trump nomination, we must understand the problems in our society that led so many people to vote for him who otherwise would not have.

    If we cannot acknowledge we have problems and face them squarely, then surely our society is harmed.

    Trigger warnings are now being implemented on campus. What do you think has led us to these trigger warnings?

    Nowadays "Vote Trump" graffiti anywhere near campus seem to cause emotional trauma and psychic angst.
     
  19. May 4, 2016 #18
    Trump probably isn't drawing many voters from the Democrats. It seem he might have some attractions to the true or republican leaning independents and maybe some true Republicans but how many previously independent voters changed their affiliation to the GOP prior to the primaries when he began his campaign? If you believe the current polls, Clinton has a double digit lead over him in the general election. So where are his votes actually coming from? The voting population may not be well understood. In any event It would seem that Trump must come to some sort of reconciliation with the Republican Party ( as well as women and minorities) or else he will not have the support to implement some of his complain promises. Such a reconciliation would probably involve a change in his current campaign persona which might further attract more independents or will he continue smugly assuming his current strategy will continue to work. My (wrenching) gut tells me to prepare for the worst.
     
  20. May 4, 2016 #19

    mheslep

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    After Trump walloped him in his home state of Florida? Rubio was my choice, but the votes are in. Elections have consequences.
     
  21. May 4, 2016 #20

    mheslep

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    Conservatives are to support Gary Johnson who now runs his own pot company?
     
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