Did any novels predict the effects of COVID-19?

[member 656954]

I've read number of virus disaster novels, but I can't recall any of them predicting anything like what's actually going on now. Anybody know of novels where the author predicted details such as a moderately lethal virus - so not end of the world stuff - leading to lock down and governments pumping the market with stimulus funds to keep economies going?

 

[wukunlin]

https://dune.fandom.com/wiki/Omnius_Scourge

While this series of novels is quite unpopular among fans of the original Dune (with good reasons imo), it did include a plague in its plot. Basically wiped out half of mankind and lead to emergence of new political powers.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Basically wiped out half of mankind

I don't think that's a good description of Covid-19.

so not end of the world stuff

Where's the drama in that?

 

[wukunlin]

I don't think that's a good description of Covid-19.

Well, I think a good description of Covid-19 is not dramatic enough to make it into epic stories.

 

[Bystander]

virus disaster novels,

Movies? Kingsman:The Golden Circle?

 

[member 656954]

While this series of novels is quite unpopular among fans of the original Dune (with good reasons imo)

I was one of those who added to the unpopularity, @wukunlin. I bought and then sent my copy of The Butlerian Jihad to the local charity shop in short order. Definitely not 'like father like son' (and I've not really taken to Kevin J Anderson's writing).

Where's the drama in that?

and

Well, I think a good description of Covid-19 is not dramatic enough to make it into epic stories.

My wife reads novels where the drama is upfront and personal, so I'd think an emotive, insightful story focused on the small things could convey quite a bit of drama. It's not something I could write, mind, my style is more slash and burn than the delicate conveyance of a Johanna Trollop or Liane Moriarty

Anyway, the consensus seems to be that a COVID-19-like infection is not dramatic enough to have warranted a slew of novels, which I honestly did not expect.

 

[member 656954]

Movies? Kingsman:The Golden Circle?

Whoops, I forgot to say, @Bystander, that was a terrible movie (But also, its apocalyptic motif is considerably more devastating in scope than a COVID-19 pandemic.)

 

[wukunlin]

I was one of those who added to the unpopularity, @wukunlin. I bought and then sent my copy of The Butlerian Jihad to the local charity shop in short order. Definitely not 'like father like son' (and I've not really taken to Kevin J Anderson's writing)

The disregard for original canon and the complete lack of the original thought provoking elements definitely rubbed me the wrong way.

 

[some bloke]

I think a dramatisation would actually work, but it would definitely be less of an action movie than world war Z or anything.

As a Brit, I can fairly safely say that the worst thing that has happened in this pandemic is the people. We actually had fights over toilet rolls, and people were buying enough for over a year, denying it for anyone else.

A novel focusing on the decline of society inflicted by something which, whilst it isn't great, is by no means apocalyptic in its own right, would be interesting.

First we all asked why the news was overhyping such a small thing on the other side of the planet.
Then we all started to say that it sounds pretty bad, but life went on as normal.
Then we were told it was in italy, in france. It was at our doors
Then it arrived in the UK, and we were told to self isolate for a week if we felt ill.
Then it was 2 weeks.
Then people started to panic and buy all the food they could, so they could stay inside, and stocks ran low
Then people panicked more and bought anything, everything that was left. Some people were left with nothing.
Then the vulnerable were told to isolate for 12 weeks. The shops were bare.
Then the schools were closed to stop the spread. non-essential workers were sent home.
(then, supposing it gets a bit worse)
Full lockdown, everyone is told to stay in their homes. The military are brought into deliver food to everyone, in rations.
People who feel they deserve more start to fight with their neighbors. Feuds break out. why should they have more food, their children don't eat as much as you do.
The military intervenes. It's all for your own good, but it seems like martial law. People get angry, but stay inside for fear of being arrested. Rumors say people all have the virus - anyone outside will go to quarantine and catch it.
One day the rations are late. They never arrive that day.
People start to panic, because there is no food. They go out to find that the military are all gone.
There's no-one to tell them what to do, and they are hungry. Gangs form, people raiding houses, shops, warehouses.

Basically, society collapsing because of people, not because of the virus. Most people are still alive, but it's the society that died.

(if this all happens, then you saw it here first, folks!)

 

[some bloke]

Well, we just went to full lockdown. No-one is allowed out except once per day to excercise, to get essential food (but you should get it delivered) and to go to work if you absolutely cannot work from home.

If the military arrive tomorrow, I will be guessing some lottery numbers.

 

[chasrob]

I've read number of virus disaster novels, but I can't recall any of them predicting anything like what's actually going on now. Anybody know of novels where the author predicted details such as a moderately lethal virus - so not end of the world stuff - leading to lock down and governments pumping the market with stimulus funds to keep economies going?

How about a free on-line comic? Genocide Man concerns designed viruses which were much more lethal (for other reasons) than COVID-19 and spooked the hell out of me. If its TL:DR, the author also has a short timeline.

 

[member 656954]

Basically, society collapsing because of people, not because of the virus. Most people are still alive, but it's the society that died.

I heard an interesting analysis on a podcast recently that suggests the Roman Empire collapsed because of disease, kind of like this, @some bloke. Their excellent roads allowed free trade that made the republic wealthy, but it also allowed contagion to spread faster and made containment harder, leading to "the society that died".

Genocide Man concerns designed viruses which were much more lethal (for other reasons) than COVID-19 and spooked the hell out of me.

Sorry, @chasrob, the lethality is still the issue for me. It's easy to write up an apocalyptic killer virus (I even used one in my novel though it's localized and not a pandemic!) but something more subtle seems uncommon.

 

[Vanadium 50]

that suggests the Roman Empire collapsed because of disease

And the random Visigoth and Vandal.

 

[member 656954]

And the random Visigoth and Vandal.

Indeed, they certainly did not help

 

[member 656954]

I've found a movie that predicted the 'stay at home' aspect of COVID-19. It's appropriately called Cooped Up, a romcom, apparently (I've not actually watched it, don't have Prime) so the focus is on the personal, rather than the pandemic, aspect of a highly infectious novel Coronavirus that originated in bats.

 

[AlexB23]

I've read number of virus disaster novels, but I can't recall any of them predicting anything like what's actually going on now. Anybody know of novels where the author predicted details such as a moderately lethal virus - so not end of the world stuff - leading to lock down and governments pumping the market with stimulus funds to keep economies going?

Well, in April 2020, I was writing a sci-fi plot on an alien world set in 1952 with 1970s level tech. The planet had a pandemic, and it caused 0.2% of the population of 1.2 billion to pass. I predicted kinda backwards that the civilization would use TVs connected to a box attached to a phone line so citizens can order groceries remotely using a keypad. In late 2022/early 2023, I looked up if anyone invented something like that in real life, and apparently in 1979, a man of the name Michael Aldrich invented a similar device.

Another thing that I predicted slightly was the use of heat to destroy the virus. In my plot, biodiesel trains used a cassette tape to run automation for the trains systems. To prevent the virus from living on interior surfaces, each night when train service stopped, the computer would tell the HVAC system to turn the passenger compartment up to 60°C for an hour. Sadly, the tapes melted, causing critical malfunctions in the train's automation systems, such as a diesel runaway due to faulty ECU data. In real life in summer 2020, Boeing experimented with heat to destroy viruses in airplane flight decks. That was a few months after my plot was written.

Teleshopping (1979): https://blogs.brighton.ac.uk/digita...hael-aldrich-bbc-interview-asher-rospigliosi/

Boeing Heat (2020): https://www.boeing.com/confident-travel/stories/thermal-disinfection.html