What outcome? The one of keeping Saddam contained until a successful approach to regime change could take place (international action--particularly in the event of another act of aggression, revolution/civil war, or what have you) or the one of creating a training field for an exponential increase in terrorists?
The history of the 90's is a slow and increasing move towards hostilities as a solution, as a last resort, hoping to the last that Saddam and his sons could forever be contained, that they would never be successful with their desires&will, that somehow, someway, at best, the consequences of these nobody denies brutal thugs with ready access to the resources of the nation of Iraq would forever be localized to simply brutalizing the Iraqi people themselves, and no others.
A gamble about the unseeable by anybody end of the road that the Clinton Administration had decided to pursue at. The end of that road was unseeable, even as we were taking it. But, the end of that road is equally unseeable now that we have taken another.
The issue over Iraq, the political battle was, "How long do we merely threaten force in the hope of a peaceful resolution, how long to we merely draw lines in the sand, how much time do we give Saddam & his sons access to the resources of the nation of Iraq, knowing what his intentions and actions and desires are from his behaviour to date?"
10 years?
Until the mushroom cloud is seen?
Forever?
Those are not equal choices, and as I said, the answer is not in the back of any book, plain to see.
The GOP position was, 'enough is enough,' the Bush Administration won an election, and the clock ran out on the Third Way. Yet, looked at not as a GOP/Democratic issue, the response from America over this issue was drawn out over a decade of restraint. That is not the same as endless restraint, and in this issue, endless restraint is not a virtue. Ten years of restraint in this crisis was not enough? 12 years was going to do it?
Moot, unknowable; Saddam&Co had the will&desire, Saddam&Co had sufficient resources to obtain the required resources, all that was left was the inevitable passage of time. The 'retirement' of Saddam was going to be followed by the ascension of his sons, not a free election. That was NOT going to be an improvement in the situation.
Had Perot not run, and had Bush 41 won in '92, I think there would have been a tendency for there to be a long period of restraint, just as there was with Clinton; that is the 'Western' way. A similar ramp up of hostilities would have occurred, given the same behaviour of Saddam&Co. And, eventually, the same thing would have happened. It's the nature of thugs, Saddam&Co were going to repsond only to the use of force, period, no matter how long we gave them to change their stripes and act rationally.
Political considerations turned this into a battle of visions in the US, however, and for as long as Clinton&co held power, they clung to the already invested strategy to the last minute, which, from the point of view of those with differing views on the topic, seemed to be well beyond a reasonable amount of time, and was every month increasingly risking a greater tragedy at the unseeable end of the current road.
So if, by comparison, it seemed that with the change of Administrations that there was a 'rush to action' to implement the already stated as necessary 'regime change in Iraq,' that is a fair and accurate assessment. However, criticism of that change of policy makes the assumption that it was wrong to do so, and that is nowhere in evidence as being obvious. In fact, the run up in the 90's describes not a waning crisis, but just the opposite. The fact that the effort was 'accelerated' does not equate to the fact that to do so was wrong, and yet that is exactly the nature of the criticism aimed at this change of policy. At best, we hear:
"Saddam&Co were going to effectively be bottled up forever," ignoring that he'd been operating free of inspectors since 1998.
"The inspections were working," ignoring that our inspectors were not even in Iraq until Bush moved the troops into the region."
"Saddam did not have WMD yet," without denying that he had a gun to his scientists heads demanding of them to 'build me a bomb.'
Reviewing the CNN reporting of the 'crisis in Iraq' during the latter half of the 90's, and the dire warnings, and the repeated talk of 'Iraq's last chance,' what is missing is any evidence, anywhere, that in the period from the late 90's and these dire warnings, the 'crisis in Iraq' had shown any signs of ameliorating.
Add onto that the mood of the nation after 9/11, and that is more than enough to understand why Saddam&Co are today effectively, factually, removed from power.
It was a question of time only. I don't blame CLinton&co for showing restraint and giving sufficient chance for other means to work. I do question other's who say that we could have afforded to do that forever without severe risk of terrible consequences, but am grateful that the debate is officially moot; there is a factual result, and that is, the effective removal of Saddam&Co and the repeal of the Republic of Fear.
SOS2008 said:
I don’t feel our foreign policy should be knee-jerk reactions, especially driven by emotions/fears, but rather it should consistently reflect American values. In your post # 128, you still have not answered these questions (or for that matter other supporters of Bush/invasion of Iraq, be they mainstream conservatives, neocons, pro-Israel fundamentalists, whether Christian or Jewish, etc.):
Should U.S. foreign policy be one of policing and intervention?
Should U.S. foreign policy be one of preemptive first strike?
Should U.S. foreign policy be one of regime change?
Should U.S. foreign policy be one in which interrogation methods include torture?
Is the one fundamental 'American' value that it is not a sin for anyone to lay claim to, 'anything goes?' Is THAT the only mighty OneSizeFitsAll value we can all at least agree on?
If that's it, and there are and never have been any 'American values,' then there are and never have been any American values worth fighting for, or more importantly, defending, and my, isn't that the key to the Magic Kingdom? That is, in fact, the position of some who would prefer America would never, under any circumstances, fight for any values. What Americans fight for, supposedly, only comes down to greedy self-interest, and supposedly, noise about 'values' is so much fig leaf covering up the hard on we have for other people's goodies.
Because, if there is some confusion over this, and there actually may be one or more other values that Americans will fight for, it is because "consistency" is clearly not one of them.
Why DID we bail in Beirut? One minute, we're so concerned about peace in that region that we risk the lives of our very best to secure same; the next minute, suddenly, we are licking our wounds and could care less.
Why DID we bail on the Somalians? One minute, we're so concerned that they are getting fed and/or being run by ruthless warlords that we risk the lives of our best to secure same; the next minute, suddenly we could care less.
We 'cared,' just not so much; the casualties taken in Somalia were certainly fewer then what we are paying today, and are apparently willing to pay, to oust Saddam and secuire a free Iraq.
Why DID we lobby the UN to make sure that the murder of 800,000 Rwandans was less glaringly labeled as only being 'genocide-like?' In that case, we cared enough to ... send Mad Albright for some P.R.
Wait a minute; how murky and undefinable and unexplainable can 'American values' be if we can so easily lose sight of them when faced with 'hardships' that pale in comparison to what previous generations shouldered to secure same for us?
SO, what are we about, now? Is the US able to impose a beneficent Pax Americana uniformly and perfectly distributed throughout the world?
No; clearly, it cannot.
Well then, can US leaders, guided by our imperfect political process, perfectly pick and choose the 'right' opportunities to do same, based on a confluence of our other 'interests' du jour which must be other then simply a prioritazation of our values?
No; clearly it cannot; certainly not without any consensus on 'American values' other than, 'anything goes.'
Well then, should they even be allowed to try, and if not, should that be a new, American value, one characterized by
a] We can't do it all perfectly.
b] We can't even do any of it perfectly.
c] We'd best do nothing, ala Rwanda.
If all this mournful nonsense of mine--which clearly, it might all be--about there actually being something still smoldering which used to be characterized as 'American values' is long dead, then the conclusion is obvious; it is all just mob noise and tribal grunting, exactly as it appears to be sometimes, and anything truly does go.
For example, Bush's incursion into Iraq has been characterized as an 'unprovoked attack.' Clearly, that in isolation must be a violation of some kind of 'American value,' loosely based on the Paradox of Violence/justification for Superior Violence. Yet if so, there might be more then one, so there is hope for us political romantics yet.
Yes, it's true, if I see a bully across the street with some poor guy strung up on a meathook, that bully has not yet attacked me.
It's true, if I tell that bully to 'Stop that, or else I'll do more then ask you to stop that again,' that bully has not yet attacked me.
But, being the kind of person who clings to the belief that 'unprovoked attacks' are not justified, at what point do I get over my bad self and go help the poor bastage who could easily be me strung up on the meathook?
Even if I'm selfishly afraid he'll someday use that meathook on my loved ones. Even if I do business with the poor bastage hung up on the meathook. Even ifthe bully is well liked by a holy majority of folks in the neighborhood doing business with him. Even if I don't speak the bully's language, appreciate his cultural heritage, or understand the needs of his neighbors.
Even if I've got all that and more stacked against me, at what point is it necessary for me to cave into my simple urge to just defend humanity from thugs, even if I've got to use force to do so?
I don't think it's even in our constitution, directly. So, what is it in the murky grab bag of what should be 'American values' that allows us, finally, to decide to get over our bad selves and lift a finger to defend humanity, when we are able, from the evil that it does to itself?
It's really not that complicated, unless there is a pressing political need to make it so, or, it happens to be convenient or profitable in some criminal fashion.
Play nice; share your toys; don't cheat, don't lie, don't steal, don't hurt anybody, do your part, say please and thank-you.
And then, we grow up, and the world gets nuanced.
EDIT:
I would like to talk more about the policy of pre-emption.
With the advantage of never going to have it perfect hindsight, was the world better off not occupying Germany in 1937? Was the world better off waiting until 1946? Don't hold me to the exact dates; not my point. The world actually only waitied until 1938 to 'try,' not 1946. There was a bloody period of trying in between, racked up 50 million. That's a lot of never going to get it back unspooling DNA; we have no idea what mankind lost in that 50 million. Cure for cancer? Hell, a cure for war? Moot. But the price is pretty clear; about 50 million, and their lost children's children..
It's an odd calculus, I'm sincerely a little afraid to even ask the question; was civilization better off for not averting that culling of 50 million souls, by waiting until 1946 to actually re-establish the peace and subdue Germany and its active agression?
For once, I'm not being a total wise ass.
After WWI, Hitler may have wanted to re-establish the German war machine, but he was effectively crippled--it was a hollow joke-- right up until he gained control of the Czech arms industry. That made all the difference. Suddenly, the best laid plans of the War to end all Wars went up in smoke. Up until that key moment, Hitler and his war machine could not realistically be perceived as a threat, and yet after that key acquisition, well, it's history. Up until then, in addition to the tactics of his generals, his key weapon was the incredulity of those arrayed against him; the French actually had superior numbers and superior technology at the time, just vastly inferior tactics, tactics from an earlier era. After that, Germany had teeth again. The calculus changed abruptly, even by modern standards. Too late, after the fact.
Look, maybe the answer really is 'yes.' That, no matter what the price in human lives, the precedent of massive ships of state not sailing off before the fact of actually receiving bloody death blows is too fundamentally valuable to ever be questioned. That, so much as crossing the street to defend another human being is not justified, as long as oneself is not threatened, is a concept that should be extended and applied to nation states. The US waited and debated until getting its nose bloodied at Pearl Harbor by Japan in what Japan saw as a pre-emptive attack, before entering WWII, then declared war on ... Germany. But, I get the point. Different times, different circumstances.
But, let's not get all mushy, and look back on WWII, and convince ourselves that the outcome was determined by right, by justice, or by God, Allah, or Jesus, by the UN, by negotiation, or by diplomacy. The outcome was determined by megapolitics, the politics of brute force.
As will the current conflict.
As will, most all conflict, even low level, borderline criminal conflict. The outcome in such cases, even when imposed by civil society, is imposed by brute force, and we issue ourselves fully signed licenses, with all the proper certificates and seals, that assuage our discomfort with same and allow us to exert brute force in defense of civilization and its civil compacts.
So, the answer as to whether we, in 1946, were a 'just' occupier of Germany/Japan I will just leave hanging, unanswered. There is disagreement still over even that; no doubt. The world where "none express anger" over any outcome is a world where miraculously, all of the O2 molecules have spontaneously aligned themselves in a hundred micron layer next to the ceiling; not going to ever happen, though, often held up as evidence of a failure of policy when that world is not achieved.