Elections Projections: Algorithm & TV Stations

[kaleidoscope]

Do you have any idea of the algorithm used to make the projections for which candidate wins an election? How are tv stations able to do it with less than 5% of the vote?

 

[bpet]

Good question. To hazard a guess, a rough early estimate of the confidence level could be based on a binomial model with a normal approximation.

Numerous improvements could be made taking into account for example the finite voter population, the specific voting system, and what factors affect the order in which the votes are counted. It could get quite complicated I think.

 

[Gokul43201]

Do you have any idea of the algorithm used to make the projections for which candidate wins an election? How are tv stations able to do it with less than 5% of the vote?

When a TV station makes a projection with only 5% of ballots counted, it typically means they are going by the exit polls, rather than the results already in. You can not treat that first 5% as a random sampling of the voters in the state, since different precincts may start counting ballots at different times. That first 5% may, for instance, be entirely from one or two sparsely populated rural districts that vote overwhelmingly for Party X.