News EPA says Volkswagen installed software to cheat on emissions

[nsaspook]

VW emission recall could be the most expensive ever
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/vw-recall-could-be-the-most-expensive-ever-194521326.html
VW has already set aside $7.2 billion to deal with recalls, fines, litigation and other costs resulting from what appears to be a deliberate effort to deceive regulators and customers, however, the cost could be twice as much or more.

...
Offer to buy back vehicles. This could be very expensive, but it might be the most thorough way to earn back the trust of VW customers -- and placate regulators. And there’s precedent. Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) recently negotiated a deal with the government involving fire-prone vehicles from 1993 to 1998, which required the automaker to offer to buy the affected vehicles back from customers at market price plus 10%. Other Fiat Chrysler recalls negotiated as part of the same deal include discounts up to $2,000 (on top of any other offers) on new Fiat Chrysler models for owners who trade in one of the qualifying recalled vehicles.

VW must be looking at the cost of the US market vs future liability and the weighting the possibility of a complete US buy back costing less in the long run while they concentrate on the massive EU market problems they have.

 

[russ_watters]

I don't think a buy-back would be enough because I don't think you can force people to sell their cars. So the people who choose not to sell still need a car that can meet emissions standards.

 

[nsaspook]

Maybe not in all states but in places like California or the NE they can by simply saying 'no registration' for public roads.
If as many believe they designed the cheat to beat the requirement of urea because it's impossible to meet US emissions and efficiency without it they are forced to retrofit (if they can even make a retrofit work and still be compatible with other safety requirements) old cars like a 2009 Jetta with Adblue or urea for $5000 per car plus overhead plus fines. If the buy back cost for older cars is ~$8000 per car + an incentive. I think a deal (on the fines) can be easily justified financially with VW and environmentally with the EPA to get the old cars off the road by effectively banning them.
I'm not in favor of a road ban without the people who were tricked being well paid for it. So you won't have to sell your car but you can't drive it as the unfixed cars were never actually legal for sale with falsified paperwork.

 

[nsaspook]

This is the end game for 'Clean Diesel'.

http://www.vw.com/features/clean-diesel/

 

[PietKuip]

This is the end game for 'Clean Diesel'.
http://www.vw.com/features/clean-diesel/

"Efficiency. Now available without compromise.
Hybrids aren’t the only game in town. TDI® Clean Diesel engines offer up impressive efficiency numbers too. Take the Passat TDI for starters. It can go up to 814 miles uninterrupted. Now that’s a game changer."
etcetera...
http://web.archive.org/web/20150816221300/http://www.vw.com/features/clean-diesel/

 

[PietKuip]

I took a quick look the the hardware. It seems to be a Bosch (The EDC17 from Bosch) unit with the TCL1796 controller. http://www.infineon.com/dgdl/tc1796...fileId=db3a304412b407950112b41bc4972cb1&ack=t

Very complex controller hardware that controls a very complex emissions and engine system.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/09/20150921-vw2l.html

The person(s) who did this had an extreme level of expertise at the code level to build something like this without detection from the outside for so long. I find it hard to believe the design code base for the system was only known at the VW engineering level if they did it. VW might just be the tip of a very large iceberg.

Bosch knew about it as early as 2007, when they wrote a letter to VW. According to Bild am Sonntag, Bosch wrote the software for testing purposes. In 2007 Bosch wrote a letter to VW, telling them that the use that VW intended was against the law. According to Bild, this letter was adressed to the highest management circles.
http://www.bild.de/geld/wirtschaft/...1-vor-abgas-manipulationen-42736218.bild.html (in German)

 

[nsaspook]

http://www.autonews.com/article/20150927/COPY01/309279989/bosch-warned-vw-about-illegal-software-use-in-diesel-cars-report-says

Bild am Sonntag said the roots of the crisis were planted in 2005 when then-VW brand chief Wolfgang Bernhard wanted VW to develop a new diesel engine for the U.S. market. Bernhard recruited Audi engineer Rudolf Krebs who developed a prototype that performed well in tests in South Africa in 2006, the paper said.

Bernhard and Krebs argued that the only way to make the engine meet U.S. emission standards was to employ in the engine system an AdBlue urea solution used on larger diesel models such as the Passat and Touareg, according to the report.

 

[PietKuip]

From a Dutch test report:
"One of the six Euro 6 diesel passenger cars currently in production that was tested in 2015 with EGR and SCR reached average NOx emissions in real-world on-road conditions of around 650 mg/km, even though in laboratory tests all chassis dynamometer measurements – i.e. also during cycles other than the type-approval test – the same vehicle easily satisfied the Euro 6 limit value of 80 mg/km. It is striking that real-world NOx emissions are more than eight times as high as the type-approval limit values. The difference illustrates that the settings for the engine, the EGR, and the SCR during a combined real-world trip are ineffective to achieve low NOx emissions. "
http://content1b.omroep.nl/urishieldv2/l27m1bc98a514f405bfc00560876ac000000.6ddfc991494e5dc6218f136d4d67431e/nos/docs/20150927%20TNO-2015-R10838.pdf

 

[Astronuc]

VW facing 'tsunami' of legal trouble in emissions scandal
http://news.yahoo.com/vw-facing-tsunami-legal-trouble-emissions-scandal-114744459.html#

Apparently some German media have reported that "Volkswagen had received warnings years ago about the use of illegal tricks to defeat emissions tests. Bild am Sonntag said VW's internal investigation has found a 2007 letter from parts supplier Bosch warning Volkswagen not to use the software during regular operation. Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung said a Volkswagen technician raised concerns about illegal practices in connection with emissions levels in 2011."

Not a good time for VW.

 

[nsaspook]

 

[nsaspook]

Cut to about 22:00 for the VW discussion.

 

[256bits]

Bosch knew about it as early as 2007, when they wrote a letter to VW. According to Bild am Sonntag, Bosch wrote the software for testing purposes. In 2007 Bosch wrote a letter to VW, telling them that the use that VW intended was against the law. According to Bild, this letter was adressed to the highest management circles.
http://www.bild.de/geld/wirtschaft/...1-vor-abgas-manipulationen-42736218.bild.html (in German)

Thanks PeitKuip,
That's what I was wondering about. How much did Bosch know about the whole code being used in production.

 

[nsaspook]

Thanks PeitKuip,
That's what I was wondering about. How much did Bosch know about the whole code being used in production.

That's something that IMO will be hard to find out unless this ends up in a count with the power to break confidentially agreements under oath. Bosch looks like the hardware integrator for the ECM using the infineon TCL1796. If VW specified something like a special code protection module, drivers and demonstration code to hide firmware from prying eyes that would be nothing special as most advanced controllers have this capability in the hardware as options but if Bosch provided technical advice with the specific details and information of designing a defeat device with possible cloaking or cryptographic masking of the functions for the willing purpose of committing a fraud they would be in deep, deep trouble.

Most auto engine management software systems are networked with CAN bus so the information needed for the system to tell which engine mode it needed to operate in could have easily been linked in from several other modules each with a little part of the pie making it very hard to nail down exactly who did what if the architect of the system was on the ball.

Things like this are why the 'IOT' where networked computers are in everything might not be so great an idea in reality.

 

[edward]

My son bought a 2011 Passat TDI about three months ago. He had been waiting for quite a while to find a low mileage used one. He just checked with various sources and they tell him his vehicle lost over half of it's resale value. New car dealerships, not just VW, won't even take them as a trade in. The irony is that he loves the car just the way it is. It is really a quick little sedan that gets over 40 mpg on the highway.

The "treadmill" :) emissions test is a joke compared to real world driving. Very few cars would do as well out on the road. The test drivers creep up to speed very gradually.

If VW comes up with a performance and economy degrading fix how long will it be until the aftermarket comes out with something to defeat the fix?

 

[nsaspook]

If VW comes up with a performance and economy degrading fix how long will it be until the aftermarket comes out with something to defeat the fix?

I'm sure somebody will try but I would not like to the first one marketing the defeat 'fix' under this kind of heat.

 

[Astronuc]

The "treadmill" :) emissions test is a joke compared to real world driving. Very few cars would do as well out on the road. The test drivers creep up to speed very gradually.

My first Honda Civic (5 speed, standard) did better than the test mileage on the highway.

 

[nsaspook]

The Bosch system VW and many others use.

 

[nsaspook]

Then
http://www.volkswagenag.com/content/vwcorp/info_center/en/news/2015/09/sustain.html

Full marks were awarded to Volkswagen in the areas of codes of conduct, compliance and anti-corruption as well as innovation management, climate strategy and life cycle assessment. The Group is also the industry benchmark for supplier management and environmental reporting. Furthermore, significant progress has been made in human capital development, occupational health and safety, tax strategy and talent attraction.

Now
http://www.sustainability-indices.com/images/150929-statement-vw-exclusion_vdef.pdf

"Volkswagen AG to be Removed from the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices"

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...ars-been-unfairly-demonised-for-air-pollution

The car industry on Wednesday launched a campaign to “challenge the increasing demonisation of diesel” vehicles.

 

[edward]

It looks like Dow Jones is coming down really hard on VW. VW is a very big company and employs a lot of people. At this point I am a bit concerned about unintended consequences in a shaky global economy. S&P ?? how do they fit into this . S&P was one of the companies that gave packaged sub prime loans an AAA rating.

 

[nsaspook]

“The purpose seems to be to pass the peak luminance measurement test and then reduce luminance (and power) to get a better energy label ranking when the on power is measured,” the correspondence says. “All very clever and it is not dimming so much that it makes a huge difference, but does the commission consider this an acceptable practice or is this a non-compliant activity?”
...
More testing is planned to establish whether manufacturers are gaming television testing procedures. But “it wouldn’t take much for an unscrupulous manufacturer to install software to detect the unique ‘signature’ of the test and to then have the unit go into some sort of eco-mode and produce superior results (ie lower energy use) that wouldn’t occur under normal usage,” Horowitz said.

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...e-energy-efficient-in-tests-than-in-real-life

Now it's TV defeat devices.

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2015/09/volkswagen_and_.html

Computer-security experts believe that intelligence agencies have been doing this sort of thing for years, both with the consent of the software developers and surreptitiously.

This problem won't be solved through computer security as we normally think of it. Conventional computer security is designed to prevent outside hackers from breaking into your computers and networks. The car analog would be security software that prevented an owner from tweaking his own engine to run faster but in the process emit more pollutants. What we need to contend with is a very different threat: malfeasance programmed in at the design stage.

 

[nsaspook]

It's interesting to look back with the current state of knowledge and see the comments and theories about the TDI cars in 2009 when people discovered the EPA ratings were low when compared to 'real world' driving.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1019256_volkswagen-jetta-tdi-much-more-mileage-than-epa-admits

His results confirm consistent reports from actual drivers that the EPA's official mileage numbers for the JettaTDI (29 mpg city / 40 mpg highway for the automatic, 30 / 41 for the manual) are far too low.

Last July, Volkswagen hired independent tester AMCI to test the Jetta TDI's"real world" mileage on the road. They came back with 38 city / 44 highway--or 24 percent and 10 percent higher respectively.

 

[Hornbein]

It's interesting to look back with the current state of knowledge and see the comments and theories about the TDI cars in 2009 when people discovered the EPA ratings were low when compared to 'real world' driving.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1019256_volkswagen-jetta-tdi-much-more-mileage-than-epa-admits

My cousin Scott informs me he was told about the VW trickery back in 2013.

 

[nsaspook]

My cousin Scott informs me he was told about the VW trickery back in 2013.

Are you sure it wasn't your cousin Vinny.

 

[Hornbein]

Are you sure it wasn't your cousin Vinny.

My cousin is Scott Howard, CEO and owner of Shandam Consulting. http://www.shandam.com/

 

[256bits]

Things like this are why the 'IOT' where networked computers are in everything might not be so great an idea in reality

IOT - too many systems to keep track of them all in the code.

I had this thought that the code design team got confused about which code was actually the production code, and inadvertently switched the test code to the running code, and visa-versa, with both sets being in there as a design choice.

The test code was to have the engine run raw ( so to speak ) and then add in systems or remove them to probe a problem. Satisfaction was when the engine performance and emissions became equal to design standards. Then the run code was set, and compared, and if equal again, the car was good to go, otherwise re-diagnose.

They could have unwittingly duped themselves, rather than deliberately duping the public.

That would be part of the quality control lax that was mentioned earlier ( by Borg I think.)

 

[Hornbein]

My cousin is Scott Howard, CEO and owner of Shandam Consulting. http://www.shandam.com/

Here's the relevant part of a letter he wrote to me.

I have a friend that works for the Bureau of Automotive Repair here in [Sacramento] CA – he said they picked up on the VW testing inconsistencies several years ago, and it took some time to bubble upward.

 

[nsaspook]

IOT - too many systems to keep track of them all in the code.

I had this thought that the code design team got confused about which code was actually the production code, and inadvertently switched the test code to the running code, and visa-versa, with both sets being in there as a design choice.

The test code was to have the engine run raw ( so to speak ) and then add in systems or remove them to probe a problem. Satisfaction was when the engine performance and emissions became equal to design standards. Then the run code was set, and compared, and if equal again, the car was good to go, otherwise re-diagnose.

They could have unwittingly duped themselves, rather than deliberately duping the public.

That would be part of the quality control lax that was mentioned earlier ( by Borg I think.)

You don't really believe that do you? They have flat out admitted to cheating. If there was the tiniest possibility of a coding mix-up that lasted for 6 years with many model revisions they would have the guys responsible for it frog-marched in from of the press in a nanosecond to save billions of dollars.

 

[mheslep]

There was no, is no, version of the software that makes the VW diesel "good to go". There's a version (mode) with good acceleration and mileage performance and emissions well over limit, and there's a mode with lousy performance but certifiable emissions. There's no mode that does both.

 

[nsaspook]

There was no, is no, version of the software that makes the VW diesel "good to go". There's a version (mode) with good acceleration and mileage performance and emissions well over limit, and there's a mode with lousy performance but certifiable emissions. There's no mode that does both.

As is usually the case a new version of this has arrived on the web: NSFW language
http://jalopnik.com/hitler-is-understandably-pissed-about-volkswagens-diese-1731943072

 

[Vanadium 50]

There's no mode that does both.

There is clearly no present-day VW mode that does both. I am less certain that there is no aftermarket chip that does both. There is a counter-culture of "chippers" who use aftermarket ECU software to improve performance. It would not strike me as impossible that one could get at or near design performance by using this modified software. Why doesn't VW do it then? More wear on various engine elements. But given a choice between replacing 500,000 cars now or 10,000 turbochargers over the next decade, which would VW prefer?