Expected value question -- Probabilities when tossing two coins

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SUMMARY

The expected value calculation for a game involving two coin tosses indicates that a player should pay $3.333 to ensure a fair game when winning $10 for tossing two heads. The formula used is E(X) = 0 = $10(1/4) - a(3/4), leading to the conclusion that a = $10/3. This aligns with the expectation of winning once and losing three times over four tosses, resulting in a net zero outcome. The discussion also touches on the implications of betting and the return of the stake in gambling scenarios.

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Summary:: checking an expected error

Given the question:

"If a person tosses two coins and gets two heads, the person wins $10.
How much should the person pay if the game is to be fair?"

The book gives the answer as $2.5 while I calculate $3.333...

E(X) = 0 = $10(1/4) - a(3/4) => a = $(10/3)

This makes sense when we consider tossing the coins four times in a row we expect to win once and lose three times so winning $10 and losing 3 x $3.333 = $10.

[Moderator's note: moved from a technical forum.]
 
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If this is a question about "pay-to-play", then he pays to play even when he ends up winning the $10. I think that will give their answer.
 
Yes that is true thank you very much!
 
That said, if you win at the bookies you also get your stake back.
 
  • Informative
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But if you lose at the bookies you may need to buy a new shirt on loan of course. And then make sure you pay up before you’ll need new fingers And/or other appendages.
 
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