Expected value question -- Probabilities when tossing two coins

AI Thread Summary
In the discussion about the expected value of a game involving two coin tosses, there is a discrepancy in the fair price to play. The book suggests a price of $2.5, while calculations indicate it should be $3.333 based on the expected outcomes. The expected value formula shows that with a win probability of 1/4 and a loss probability of 3/4, the fair price aligns with the higher calculation. The conversation also touches on the implications of winning and losing in gambling contexts, emphasizing the importance of including the stake in calculations. Ultimately, understanding the expected value is crucial for determining fair game pricing.
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Summary:: checking an expected error

Given the question:

"If a person tosses two coins and gets two heads, the person wins $10.
How much should the person pay if the game is to be fair?"

The book gives the answer as $2.5 while I calculate $3.333...

E(X) = 0 = $10(1/4) - a(3/4) => a = $(10/3)

This makes sense when we consider tossing the coins four times in a row we expect to win once and lose three times so winning $10 and losing 3 x $3.333 = $10.

[Moderator's note: moved from a technical forum.]
 
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If this is a question about "pay-to-play", then he pays to play even when he ends up winning the $10. I think that will give their answer.
 
Yes that is true thank you very much!
 
That said, if you win at the bookies you also get your stake back.
 
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But if you lose at the bookies you may need to buy a new shirt on loan of course. And then make sure you pay up before you’ll need new fingers And/or other appendages.
 
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