News Experience the Polling Line: Share Yours & Track Results

[1oldman2]

 

[DaveC426913]

In about ten minutes I'm headed for my boat, with 8 years of emergency supplies.

 

[russ_watters]

Stock market futures trading halted until tomorrow's market open due to hitting a -5% circuit breaker.

 

[Astronuc]

Okay. "Jungle rules" primaries work very weirdly.

Similarly in Washington State, the top two winners of the primary are selected for the general election for Senate, Congress and various state positions, so it is also possible to have two republicans or two democrats competing in the general election.

 

[DennisN]

I did not make a guess in the "Presidential election game!" thread, since I don't know very much about US politics. I have however followed US politics more closely the last week, reading news and watching rallies. I would never have guessed a Trump victory.

 

[NTL2009]

I'm watching ABC news and they are all acting so surprised. Yes, Trump is ahead further and in more places than I imagined, but I kept seeing all these Google News feeds about polls with HRC 3-12 points ahead. But the IBD poll, rated the most accurate in the last four POTUS elections had it close for a long time, with Trump a point or two ahead the past few days. Rasmussen was similar.

I think the media was believing their own press releases. I guess that shouldn't be surprising since people like George Stephanopoulos were in the Clinton White House.

 

[Astronuc]

Clinton crowd shocked and tense as Trump nabs swing states
https://www.yahoo.com/news/clinton-crowd-shocked-and-tense-as-trump-nabs-swing-states-042543888.html

It looks like the GOP will have at least 50 seats in the Senate. Alaska is up in the air.

In Louisiana, no candidate got 50% of the vote, so there will be a runoff on Dec 10. The top republican, John Kennedy, received 25% of the vote, and the top democrat, Foster Campbell, received 17%. The number of candidates (I counted 24) is astounding!

 

[Astronuc]

I'm watching ABC news and they are all acting so surprised. Yes, Trump is ahead further and in more places than I imagined, but I kept seeing all these Google News feeds about polls with HRC 3-12 points ahead. But the IBD poll, rated the most accurate in the last four POTUS elections had it close for a long time, with Trump a point or two ahead the past few days. Rasmussen was similar.

I think the media was believing their own press releases. I guess that shouldn't be surprising since people like George Stephanopoulos were in the Clinton White House.

I've been wondering if the 'main stream' media poll in the urban/suburban areas, since that's easy to access, but seem more blue, while ignoring the more rural areas, which tend to be more GOP/independent, or otherwise red.

 

[Chestermiller]

The American people have spoken.

 

[Evo]

In about ten minutes I'm headed for my boat, with 8 years of emergency supplies.

TAKE ME! I have skills!

 

[Astronuc]

The American people have spoken.

Certainly a majority registered to vote, who then voted, seem to be dissatisfied with the status quo and perceived 'elites'.

 

[HossamCFD]

The parallels with Brexit are hard to ignore. I'm not too certain about it, but I think Trump will win.

That was on Sunday. Do I get a prize? :P

Sorry, I know that many people are upset. My condolences!

 

[Tsu]

In about ten minutes I'm headed for my boat, with 8 years of emergency supplies.

Take me too! I know CPR!

 

[Astronuc]

Sorry, I know that many people are upset. My condolences!

Either way, about half the voters would be upset.

 

[russ_watters]

I've been wondering if the 'main stream' media poll in the urban/suburban areas, since that's easy to access, but seem more blue, while ignoring the more rural areas, which tend to be more GOP/independent, or otherwise red.

I'm not sure it is quite that bad/simplistic. My understanding is that the difficulty is more in the demographics: when you do a random phone poll of 1,000 people you then have to scale the results against the expected voter turnout of the country. IE, if 90% of blacks vote democratic then it matters a lot if the turnout vs whites is higher or lower by a few percent. And how do you predict turnout? With historical data. But if the candidates or situations change a lot, then the demographic projections can be way off in a way that even the pre-election poll's margin for error can't deal with (because the margin for error is based on the poll being self-contained).

 

[DaveC426913]

Take me too! I know CPR!

Perfect.

A boat, a skid of food and a brace of PF ladies.

I have dreams like this.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I'm watching ABC news and they are all acting so surprised.

"Nobody I know voted for Nixon".

 

[1oldman2]

This is going to be a very strange next four years.

 

[Bystander]

a very strange next four years.

No more so than the past eight.

 

[NTL2009]

In about ten minutes I'm headed for my boat, with 8 years of emergency supplies.

Eight years? So you are expecting two terms?

Certainly a majority registered to vote, who then voted, seem to be dissatisfied with the status quo and perceived 'elites'.

Yes, and those 'elites' weren't listening. I heard one commentator on ABC say something that resonated with me - they said one thing that probably 'back fired' was when HRC kept saying "When they go low, we go high!" While they unleash a negative campaign as they say that. The 'common man/woman' can see right thorough that BS.

 

[Bystander]

Stock market futures trading halted until tomorrow's market open due to hitting a -5% circuit breaker.

 

[Evo]

Eight years? So you are expecting two terms?

No, he has several people with him. We should probably add to that, I have more people that want to come.

 

[1oldman2]

This just in... http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37916967

 

[Vanadium 50]

Real Clear Politics just uncalled the NE-2 race.

 

[Vanadium 50]

The PA race is running 48.8-47.6 in favor of Trump with 97% of the votes in. The problem for Secretary Clinton is where the uncounted precincts are: York and Franklin counties. Those are not areas where she has run strong.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Oh, and in an "I told you so" moment, before the election is called, the difference between the polls and the actual result was 5-6%. Brexit was also around 6%.

 

[Astronuc]

Google now has Trump at 264 with Pennsylvania going to Trump. It would seem Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin will go to Trump.

I saw one projection with Trump receiving 302 electoral votes.

 

[HossamCFD]

The PA race is running 48.8-47.6 in favor of Trump with 97% of the votes in. The problem for Secretary Clinton is where the uncounted precincts are: York and Franklin counties. Those are not areas where she has run strong.

AP just called PA. Which is essentially calling the election

 

[vela]

Oh, and in an "I told you so" moment, before the election is called, the difference between the polls and the actual result was 5-6%. Brexit was also around 6%.

The USC/LA Times poll apparently more accurately reflected Trump's support.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20161108-story.html

 

[Astronuc]

Oh, and in an "I told you so" moment, before the election is called, the difference between the polls and the actual result was 5-6%. Brexit was also around 6%.

I think the margins are around 2 to 4% in states like Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.