- #1

Terp

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Hi all. Probability definitely isn't my specialty, and I've run across this problem at work.

There's one gate valve that isolates two 2400 psi hydrogen gas banks from each other, and I'm trying to find the probability that it fails in one year. I've done some digging and found failure rates of gate valves are between 1.5 failures and 15 failure / 10^6 hrs. Because I want to be conservative, I used the 15 failures / 10^6 hours and did some simple converting. It comes out to 0.13 failures per year.

Now, to my untrained eye (and brain), it seems that .13 failures / year is the probability of it failing in one year, but at the same time, it's a rate, not a probability. Unfortunately I don't have any more information than I've already given. If more is needed I'll be doing some digging.

Currently consulting Google for this problem, too...

Any guidance would be appreciated. Thank you!

There's one gate valve that isolates two 2400 psi hydrogen gas banks from each other, and I'm trying to find the probability that it fails in one year. I've done some digging and found failure rates of gate valves are between 1.5 failures and 15 failure / 10^6 hrs. Because I want to be conservative, I used the 15 failures / 10^6 hours and did some simple converting. It comes out to 0.13 failures per year.

Now, to my untrained eye (and brain), it seems that .13 failures / year is the probability of it failing in one year, but at the same time, it's a rate, not a probability. Unfortunately I don't have any more information than I've already given. If more is needed I'll be doing some digging.

Currently consulting Google for this problem, too...

Any guidance would be appreciated. Thank you!

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