Finding the Probability of Flipping 500 Heads and Tails

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SUMMARY

The probability of flipping exactly 500 heads and 500 tails when flipping 1000 coins can be calculated using the binomial distribution formula. The correct expression for this probability is given by (1000 choose 500) multiplied by (.5)^1000. To simplify calculations for large N, Stirling's approximation can be applied, where N! is approximated as NlnN - N. Tools like WolframAlpha can also compute this probability efficiently.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of binomial distribution
  • Familiarity with Stirling's approximation
  • Basic knowledge of combinatorial mathematics
  • Experience using computational tools like WolframAlpha
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the derivation of the binomial distribution formula
  • Learn how to apply Stirling's approximation in probability calculations
  • Explore combinatorial methods for calculating probabilities
  • Utilize WolframAlpha for advanced probability computations
USEFUL FOR

This discussion is beneficial for students studying probability theory, mathematicians interested in combinatorial problems, and anyone seeking to understand the statistical analysis of coin flips.

bmb2009
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Homework Statement



Suppose you flip 1000 coins, what is the probability of flipping exactly 500 heads and 500 tails. (Hint: First write down the formula for the total number of possible outcomes. Then, to determine the "multiplicity" of the 500-500 macro state, use stirlings approximation.



Homework Equations





The Attempt at a Solution



I have done a couple of these problems (successfully) with the binomial distribution method so am I wrong in stating the following equality? Or is this correct and I should just use the stirlings method to make N!~ NlnN - N at large N and then use this to simplify the probability I wrote? Thanks!

probability = (1000 choose 500)((.5)^500)*((.5)^500)
 
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It is correct. Stirling's formula will allow you to calculate that, yes.
And WolframAlpha can do it as well.
 
bmb2009 said:

Homework Statement



Suppose you flip 1000 coins, what is the probability of flipping exactly 500 heads and 500 tails. (Hint: First write down the formula for the total number of possible outcomes. Then, to determine the "multiplicity" of the 500-500 macro state, use stirlings approximation.



Homework Equations





The Attempt at a Solution



I have done a couple of these problems (successfully) with the binomial distribution method so am I wrong in stating the following equality? Or is this correct and I should just use the stirlings method to make N!~ NlnN - N at large N and then use this to simplify the probability I wrote? Thanks!

probability = (1000 choose 500)((.5)^500)*((.5)^500)

Yes, that is correct. Notice also that ##.5^{500} \times .5^{500} = .5^{1000} = 1/2^{1000}##.
 

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