FIRO - Forecast-informed Reservoir Operations

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the concept of Forecast-informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) and its implications for managing water resources, particularly in the context of changing weather patterns and precipitation variability. Participants explore the integration of reliable forecasting methods with dam and reservoir operations, touching on both theoretical and practical aspects.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Conceptual clarification
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant highlights the potential of using more reliable forecasting in conjunction with dam operations, referencing various articles and studies on the topic.
  • Another participant notes the variability of weather and precipitation in Northern California, suggesting that local experiences reflect broader trends discussed in the thread.
  • A different perspective is offered by a participant who expresses skepticism about the value of weather forecasting, quoting a farmer's pragmatic view on rain and weather conditions.
  • A humorous quote about weather forecasting is shared, which may reflect a critical or lighthearted attitude towards the reliability of weather predictions.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants present a mix of viewpoints, with some expressing interest in the potential of FIRO while others question the reliability of weather forecasts. The discussion remains unresolved, with no clear consensus on the efficacy or importance of forecasting in reservoir operations.

Contextual Notes

Participants do not fully explore the assumptions underlying the effectiveness of forecasting methods or the specific conditions that may affect their application in reservoir management.

Astronuc
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Ignoring the part about fossil fuels, or the prediction of demand, I heard an interesting discussion about using more reliable forecasting in conjunction with dam/reservoir operation.

https://www.marketplace.org/2023/10...le-hydro-dams-look-to-new-forecasting-method/

https://www.wired.com/story/hydro-dams-climate-change-weather-forecasting/

https://www.drought.gov/regional-activities/forecast-informed-reservoir-operations-firo

https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/firo/

https://water.ca.gov/News/Blog/2023...Are-Key-to-Managing-Floods-and-Water-Supplies

https://psl.noaa.gov/outreach/resources/handouts/firo.pdf

Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for a Multipurpose Reservoir in Northern California​

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019WR026604
 
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A lot of that is going on in my own backyard. The weather and precipitation in Northern California has been all over the map for the last decade or so...
 
Weather? Forecasting? When it's raining, it's wet out; when it's not, it isn't: paraphrased from my father, the wheat farmer, "When it rains, it rains; when it doesn't, it doesn't." ---SW Kansas