Getting the average of several typhoon trajectories

In summary, the conversation discusses methods of obtaining the average of multiple typhoon trajectories, represented by straight red lines. The average trajectory would be a range, as the data was collected at different months with a time interval of six hours. The person asks for suggestions on how to learn to do this and shares a helpful resource for historical tracks. The conversation also touches on the meaning and usefulness of an average trajectory and the availability of the data set. The suggested approach is to calculate the average migration vector and use the cross path density profile to determine a median line.
  • #1
soybean101
1
0
graph.jpg

Hi
I am curious to know if there are methods of getting the average of several typhoon trajectories, with the average trajectory represented as straight red lines (for simplicity) as shown in the image. I am assuming that this average wouldn't be a straight line but be represented as a range. Each colored line corresponds to a different typhoon track, all of which are plotted for the entire year. This means that some trajectories were collected at different months. Time interval for each data point is six hours.
Since I am new to the field, I would just like to know if this was done already, and suggestions as to what/where I should begin to learn to do it. Thank you.
 

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  • #2
Pretty good searchable information here for historical tracks https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Should be able to search based on basin, year, name, location etc...
 
  • #3
Welcome to PF.
Where with the right statistics you can get any answer you want.

When does an 'average trajectory' have meaning.
Asking why you require an average trajectory, may help work out what you actually need.
You already have the convex hull of the dataset.

What mapping projection have you used?
Do the numbers (without units) on the axes of your map have any meaning?

Start by totalling all the dx and the dy steps for each 6 hour pairs of points. That will give you an average migration vector, having both direction and travel velocity.

Once you have that information you can rotate the map and look at the 'cross path' density profile of the tracks. That will give you a median line.

Is your data set available? Can you attach it to your next post.
 

What is the purpose of getting the average of several typhoon trajectories?

The purpose of getting the average of several typhoon trajectories is to better understand the general movement and behavior of typhoons in a specific region. By calculating the average trajectory, scientists can make predictions about future typhoon paths and potentially improve forecasting accuracy.

How are typhoon trajectories collected and measured?

Typhoon trajectories are collected through various methods such as satellite imagery, weather balloons, and radar systems. These data points are then analyzed and measured using mathematical models and algorithms to determine the trajectory of the typhoon.

What factors influence the average trajectory of typhoons?

There are several factors that can influence the average trajectory of typhoons, including wind patterns, ocean currents, and the topography of the region. Climate change and other environmental factors may also play a role in altering the average trajectory of typhoons over time.

How do scientists use the average typhoon trajectory in their research?

Scientists use the average typhoon trajectory as a baseline for comparison with individual typhoon paths. This helps them identify any anomalies or patterns that may exist, which can provide insights into the behavior and movement of typhoons. This information can also be used to improve forecasting models and emergency response plans.

Can the average typhoon trajectory be used to predict the intensity of future typhoons?

No, the average typhoon trajectory is only used to predict the general path and movement of typhoons. Intensity is determined by a variety of factors and can vary greatly among individual typhoons, making it difficult to accurately predict based on the average trajectory alone.

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