Given probability, solve unknown number of counters

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In summary, the problem involves finding the number of white counters in a bag at the start, given that there are 7 red counters and the probability of picking a white and then a red counter is 21/80. The solution involves using two equations and two unknowns, and eventually leads to a quadratic equation (3) with two possible solutions. However, only one solution (9) is a whole number and it can be checked by substituting it back into the original equation (2). There may be a quicker method, but it is clear that the number of white counters must be a multiple of 9 in order for the equation to work.
  • #1
CWatters
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Not my homework exactly but it's homework like so..

1. Homework Statement

There are some red and white counters in a bag. At the start there are 7 red and the rest white. Alfie takes two counters at random without putting any back. The probability that the first is white and the second red is 21/80.

How many white counters were in the bag at the start?

Homework Equations



P(W&R) = P(W) * P(R)

The Attempt at a Solution



I have the solution but it took well over the 3.5 mins budgeted for each question in the paper. Along the way I had to use the general equation for solving a quadratic. Did I miss obvious factors of Eqn (3)?

Let: T = Total number of counters, W = number of white counters

T = 7 + W ...........(1)
P(W&R) = (W/T) * (7/(T-1)) = 21/80......(2)

Two equations and 2 unknowns so should be solvable..

Sub for T in (2)...

(W/(7+W)) * (7/(7+W-1) = 21/80
Multiply out..
7W / (W2 + 13W + 42) = 21/80
7*80W = 21*(W2 + 13W + 42)
80W = 3*(W2 + 13W + 42)
80W - 3*(W2 + 13W + 42) = 0
80W - 3W2 - 39W -126 = 0
finally the quadratic..
3W2 - 41W + 126 = 0......(3)

Then using -b+/-Sqrt(b2 -4ac)/2a

I got answers 14/3 and 9. Answer is 9 because 14/3 isn't a whole number. I checked it's correct by putting W=9 and T=16 back into (2).
 
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  • #2
I don't immediately see a shortcut.
 
  • #3
Not sure that it is any quicker, but having got to (w+7)(w+6)=80w/3 it is clear that 3|w, and then immediately that 9|w, so can rewrite as (9w'+7)(3w'+2)=80w'. Obviously w'=0 is too small and 1 is too much, so...
 

1. What is the formula for solving unknown number of counters given a probability?

The formula for solving unknown number of counters given a probability is: number of counters = probability x total number of trials.

2. How do you calculate the probability of a given number of counters?

To calculate the probability of a given number of counters, divide the number of desired outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes.

3. Can you give an example of solving for unknown number of counters using probability?

For example, if we have a bag of 20 marbles, 12 of which are red and 8 of which are blue, and we randomly draw 3 marbles without replacement, what is the probability of getting 2 red marbles? We can calculate the probability as 12/20 x 11/19 x 8/18 = 0.26 or 26%. To find the number of red marbles, we can use the formula: number of counters = probability x total number of trials. So, 0.26 x 3 = 0.78 or approximately 1 red marble.

4. What other factors should be considered when solving for unknown number of counters using probability?

Other factors that should be considered include the type of distribution (binomial, normal, etc.), the number of trials, and whether the events are independent or dependent.

5. How can solving for unknown number of counters using probability be applied in real life situations?

Solving for unknown number of counters using probability can be applied in various fields such as statistics, genetics, and business. For example, in genetics, probability can be used to determine the likelihood of inheriting certain traits or diseases. In business, probability can be used to make predictions and decisions based on historical data.

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