Help! Troubleshooting a Technical Problem

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around troubleshooting a technical problem related to calculating probabilities in a binomial distribution context. Participants explore methods for determining probabilities for specific occurrences and the use of normal approximation for calculations.

Discussion Character

  • Technical explanation
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant notes the need to calculate probabilities for "at least 40 occurrences" and "at most 30 occurrences," suggesting the use of normal approximation to simplify calculations.
  • Another participant questions whether the mean and standard deviation are necessary for calculating z-scores and whether summing probabilities is the only method available.
  • A response confirms that the mean and standard deviation are derived from the number of trials and the probability of success, indicating that these parameters are essential for the calculations.
  • Participants discuss the option of approximating the binomial distribution as a normal random variable, which may provide an alternative to summing probabilities directly.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants appear to agree on the need for mean and standard deviation in the calculations, but there is no consensus on the best method to approach the probability calculations, as some suggest summing probabilities while others advocate for normal approximation.

Contextual Notes

The discussion does not resolve the specific calculations or assumptions regarding the parameters of the binomial distribution, leaving some steps and definitions potentially unclear.

gtfitzpatrick
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Hi,
Trying to figure this out any ideas as to what I am doing wrong?
Thanks all
 

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You are using the expressions for "exactly 40 occurrences" and "exactly 30 occurrences". So when you did ##1 - P(40)## you've calculated the probability of "anything but 40".

The first question asks for "at least 40". That means 40, or 41, or 42, or ... up to 100. The probability of that would be P(40) + P(41) + P(42) + ... + P(100). Or 1 minus P(0) + P(1) + ... + P(39). Either way, it would be a lot of calculation to add up all those terms. So you're probably expected to use the normal approximation to the binomial distribution.

Does that ring a bell as something you were recently taught in class?

Similarly, part (ii) asks for "at most 30". That means 30, or 29, or 28, or... down to 0. Again, easier with the normal approximation.
 
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Hi,
Thanks a million for the response.
Do I not need the mean and the standard deviation, To calculate the z scores? Using the information i have is the only way can do by adding them all up?
 
gtfitzpatrick said:
Hi,
Thanks a million for the response.
Do I not need the mean and the standard deviation, To calculate the z scores

Yes. You have ##n = 100## Bernoulli trials, and the probability of "success" on each one is ##p##, which you know. You are interested in the distribution of the number of successes. That is a binomial random variable. Its mean and standard deviation are formulas in terms of ##n## and ##p##.

gtfitzpatrick said:
Hi,
Using the information i have is the only way can do by adding them all up?

Or by approximating as a normal random variable with the same mean and standard deviation.

Consult your textbook for "mean of a binomial distribution" and "standard deviation of a binomial distribution".
 

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