How Can You Assess the Likelihood of Journey Times with Extra Information?

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on assessing the likelihood of journey times based on average speed and standard deviation. Given an average speed of 30 km/hr and a journey distance of 10 km, the expected journey time is 20 minutes. To determine the likelihood of this journey time compared to other times, such as 5 minutes or 35 minutes, one must incorporate the standard deviation, which in this case is specified as 5. This additional information allows for the approximation of a normal distribution to calculate probabilities accurately.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of basic statistics, including mean and standard deviation
  • Familiarity with normal distribution concepts
  • Knowledge of probability calculations
  • Basic understanding of journey time estimation
NEXT STEPS
  • Learn how to calculate probabilities using the normal distribution
  • Study the Central Limit Theorem and its implications for journey time analysis
  • Explore statistical software tools like R or Python for probability modeling
  • Investigate real-world applications of journey time predictions in transportation planning
USEFUL FOR

This discussion is beneficial for statisticians, data analysts, transportation planners, and anyone involved in journey time estimation and probability analysis.

bradyj7
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Hello,

If you assume that the average speed of car will be 30km/hr when making a journey.

A journey distance is 10 km.

You therefore expect the journey to take 20 minutes.

How would you determine how much more likely the journey will take 20 minutes than not to take 20 minutes.

Is it 2, 3, 10 times more likely to take 20 minutes than some other time such as 5 minutes or 35 minutes.

Thanks
 
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You say the "average speed" is 30 km/hr but that alone is not enough information. You need something additional, at minimum the "standard deviation" so that you can at least approximate the probability distribution by a normal distribution.
 
okay, thanks.

Say for example the SD is 5.

How would you determine how much more likely the journey will take 20 minutes than not to take 20 minutes with this extra information included?

Thanks for the help
 

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