How Close Can You Get to 80% of the Average Guess?

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Discussion Overview

The thread discusses a game where participants guess a number between 0 and 100, aiming to be closest to 80% of the average of all guesses. The conversation explores strategies, predictions about participants' behavior, and the outcomes of multiple rounds of the game.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants express confidence in their guesses, with one stating, "I'm winning this."
  • There is speculation about whether players will guess rationally or choose random numbers, with questions about the potential for extreme guesses like 100.
  • Participants discuss strategies for guessing, such as trying to predict others' guesses to skew the average in their favor.
  • One participant mentions they have received five guesses so far, indicating ongoing participation.
  • After the first round, the average guess was 30, and 80% of that was calculated to be 24, with the winner guessing 23.
  • In the second round, the average was 38.8, leading to a winner who guessed 26, prompting surprise that the average moved up instead of down.
  • There are suggestions for modifying the game rules in future rounds, including using a random percentage instead of a fixed 80%.
  • Some participants express disappointment in their guesses, indicating they underestimated the behavior of others.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of strategies and predictions, with no clear consensus on the best approach to guessing. The discussion reflects differing opinions on player behavior and the outcomes of the game rounds.

Contextual Notes

Participants note that the number of players may have influenced the average results, and there are discussions about the clarity of the game rules. There is also mention of a potential random number generator to select the percentage for future rounds.

Who May Find This Useful

Readers interested in game theory, strategy, and social dynamics in decision-making may find this discussion engaging.

Physics_wiz
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Ok here are the rules:
Guess a number (integer) between 0 and 100. The number closest to 80% of the average of all the numbers guessed by the players wins :biggrin:.

Example:
Say the numbers I got are: 10, 50, 60, 80, and 25. The average is 45 and 80% of the average is 36 so 25 would win since it's the closest to 36.

The game will keep running for about 1 day depending on how many numbers I get. Please don't post numbers as replies, just send me a PM with your number.
 
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Physics news on Phys.org
15?

<limit>
 
You're not even close, cyrus.
I'm winning this.
 
heartless said:
very similar topic was here,
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=116159

True, but we're actually playing the game here! :biggrin:

Are you going to go with the most rational answer? Are people going to play rationally? Will anyone guess any crazy numbers like 100?

So many questions :wink:
 
I will be nice and go last. Everybody just post your numbers :smile:
 
mattmns said:
I will be nice and go last. Everybody just post your numbers :smile:

Everyone will post the numbers they want you to see so you take 80% of the average and decide on a number that will skew the average in their favor!
 
you of course mean random numbers? or no?
 
You can guess random numbers if you want, but if you want to win you should try to randomly guess a number that's as close to 80% of the average of all the numbers as possible :wink:.
 
  • #10
do we have any numbers so far? If no, I rather wait. I like to be last in doing things,
 
  • #11
I already opted to go last, so feel free to post your number :biggrin:
 
  • #12
I got 5 numbers so far.
 
  • #13
Physics_wiz said:
I got 5 numbers so far.

And mine is going to win :-p

~H
 
  • #14
I've just sent my magic number.

mattmns said:
I already opted to go last, so feel free to post your number :biggrin:

OK, feel free to go last, certainly you'll benefit :-p
(at first, I didn't notice that we have to pm physisc_wiz)
 
  • #15
Any last guesses before I post the results? I only got 9 numbers so far.
 
  • #16
49 .
 
  • #17
Post Results! Post Results!
 
  • #18
Post 'em :smile:
 
  • #19
Ok here are the numbers I got:
10
40
17
29
50
23
32
32
37

The average was 30 and 80% of the average = 24.

mattmns won with his guess of 23, congratulations :biggrin:.

If you want to tell us how you rationalized your number, go right ahead. We can also play another round if people are interested. It'll be interesting to see how the results of this round affect the next round.
 
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  • #20
Uh, I was so close... :)
Congratatulalations Mattmns!
 
  • #21
Sweet! What do I win? :biggrin:

I made the guess thinking there would be a lot of people guessing low, and then some people guessing higher (40+), so I figured 23 seemed reasonable. However, it seems like I was wrong, but still won :smile:
 
  • #22
mattmns said:
Sweet! What do I win? :biggrin:
You win the respect of fellow PF'ers :approve:

So, another round?
 
  • #23
Sweet, I got second place! (29)
 
  • #24
Physics_wiz said:
You win the respect of fellow PF'ers :approve:

So, another round?

Sure, but 80% won't work the same way again. How about an unknown n% and you don't tell us what the percent is until everyone submits his or her number.
Then, a winner becomes random :)
 
  • #25
heartless said:
Sure, but 80% won't work the same way again. How about an unknown n% and you don't tell us what the percent is until everyone submits his or her number.
Then, a winner becomes random :)

sweet! I got a yes. Ok another round. Same rules. The most interesting thing about this game is to see how the results change with the same rules and previous results posted! :biggrin:

Don't forget to PM me the number, don't post it as a reply please.
 
  • #26
wait, wait, wait for me,
Let's add one more thing, how about a RNG, generating a random rational percent between 0 and 100? Then Physics_wiz can't be bribed by mattmns again :biggrin:
 
  • #27
Yep, I cheated! Did you see that thread about the most common passwords? Well, Physics_wiz's password for PF is 'password' :smile:

I am for another round :approve:

This time let's make it interesting :biggrin:
 
  • #28
I'm taking numbers with PMs until tomorrow. Send your numbers!
 
  • #29
Results

Here are the numbers I got for the second round:
38
15
26
73
42

The average was 38.8, 80% of the average = 31.04

franznietzsche won with his guess of 26, congratulations :biggrin:

I have to say that I'm surprised the average moved up instead of down, but this could just mean that the number of players wasn't enough or the rules weren't very clear. Anyways, no more rounds...thanks for participating though :biggrin:.
 
  • #30
Yeah I thought everyone would go about 10 lower or so, so I went 8 lower than my previous number and chose 15. I was way off, you guys aren't that predictable :smile:

Congrats Franz!
 
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