1. The problem statement, all variables and given/known data Karen asks John to guess the date of her birth, not including the year (i.e. the day and month she was born; discount leap years). If John guessed correctly on his first try, would you believe his claim that he made a lucky guess or would you be suspicious that he already knew your birth date? Explain why, relating to chance and hypothesis testing. 2. The attempt at a solution The probability of John guessing correctly on his first try is 1 correct day/365 possible days, or 0.0027. I chose to set the alpha level at 0.05, because none is given in the question. I know the probability of a correct guess due to chance is less than the alpha level (.0027 < 0.05). Here is where I get confused. Would my alternative hypothesis be that John is psychic, or a lucky guesser? i.e. What exactly am I proving by the fact that "p-value < alpha?" I feel like this should seem obvious, but I am really frustrated. Please help guide me in the right direction.