Ike is heading for the Gulf of Mexico

[Astronuc]

As of 8pm CDT, Ike was just shy of Cat 3 with maximum sustained winds of 110 MPH, but higher gusts. I think Houston will get a lot of damage, and smaller communities on the coast and bay will likely be heavily damage if not destroyed.

Next update in 45 min.

 

[Evo]

I have such fond memories of Galveston, Bolivar, Kemah and the Texas City dyke (best place to go crabbing).

 

[hypatia]

I have never been there, but recall..

 

[OmCheeto]

And what of all those relatives of mine on the poop deck...

I think I might be totally orphaned soon.

But what a way to go.

 

[Evo]

IKE is monstrous, 600 miles across, it fills the entire gulf from the satellite photo I just saw. I hope my mother's trees hold up. They say the eye will pass directly over Houston. Surrounded by 30 foot tall pine trees, I'm worried some will crash into the house like during the last hurricane. My mom is tough, but she's in her 80's.

 

[Math Is Hard]

I'm wondering when my family will be able to return to Clear Lake.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

CNN reports that winds are 1 mph below Cat 3.

Some of the weather people were saying that for every thirty stories that you go up in a high rise, you have to increase the Cat number by 1. And in fact it has been reported that Cat 4 winds have already been measured in at least one tall building.

In the last few hours, a well defined eye has formed, just in time for landfall.

 

[Math Is Hard]

It's weird because the image they are showing on the news looks like Ike has some big holes in it. They're talking about places where it's not raining at all because they are under one of these dry spots in the bands. I hope that means it's becoming disorganized and weakening.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

A formed eye means that it is strengthening, but luckily there isn't much time before it hits land.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Geez! It looks like the East side of the eye will be centered on the channel. Not good.

The center of the eye should go right over DH.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Now, after begging people to leave for over two days, rescuers are getting "many calls" from people on Galveston Island in need of rescue, but help is not possible now.

 

[Math Is Hard]

1.1 million customers without power now.

 

[Astronuc]

This morning ~2 million customers or ~4 million without power, and it will take weeks to restore some parts. And it ain't over!

As of 4 am CDT, the winds were still 110 mph with higher gusts. Brennan's (40 yr old landmark) in downtonw Houston burned down. Firefighters can't get out in the middle of 100 mph winds.

Most of Galveston is flooded and several fires are reported.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ike

Some 30 miles inland, storm surge of about 10 feet was pushing into a neighborhood near Johnson Space Center where White had made rounds earlier with a bullhorn trying to compel people to leave. Nearby, the popular Kemah Boardwalk at the mouth of Galveston Bay, ringed by million-dollar homes, was submerged, state officials said.

. . . If Ike is as bad as feared, the storm could travel up Galveston Bay and send a surge up the Houston Ship Channel and into the port of Houston. The port is the nation's second-busiest, and is an economically vital complex of docks, pipelines, depots and warehouses that receives automobiles, consumer products, industrial equipment and other cargo from around the world and ships out vast amounts of petrochemicals and agricultural products.

D H will probably be offline for a while - no power = no internet.

 

[Astronuc]

600 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008 . . . 1100z

From the NHC/NOAA

Eye of ike beginning to move away from the houston metropolitan
area... the center of hurricane ike was located near
latitude 30.1 N...longitude 95.1 W or just northeast of
Kingwood, TX. This position is about 15 miles... 25 Km...
East-northeast of Houston Intercontinental Airport...and about
80 miles...130 km...south-southwest of Lufkin, TX.

Ike is now moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr.
A turn toward the north is expected later today...with a turn
toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed expected
tonight and sunday. On the forecast track...the center of ike will
move through southeastern and eastern texas today...and into
western Arkansas tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph...
160 Km/hr...with higher gusts. Ike is a Cat 2 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional weakening is expected as the
center moves farther inland...although Ike is expected to remain a
hurricane through this afternoon!

Sustained winds are still 100 mph after the eye has moved inland about 60 miles (100 km)!

 

[Oberst Villa]

My parents, sister's family and others are riding it out in central Houston. My parents old home, near Braes Bayou flooded about 18 inches last big storm. They'd already sold it by then.

Are you currently in contact with them, are they all right ? My best wishes to them and all others who are affected by this mess !

 

[Astronuc]

My parents are fine. Part of a neighbors tree is in their backyard, and it fell across the power lines and utilities. They have no electrical power.

I can't reach my sister who lives about 1 km from my parents, however I believe they are fine. That area does not flood.

The people near the Bay and coastline have not done well. Many communities have flooded, and we have to wait until this afternoon to find out how bad the damage is.

AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR JUST NORTHEAST OF
CONROE TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES... 30 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE...AND ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN TEXAS.

IKE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...29 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

The maximum sustaind winds have decreased to 90 mph in two hours, so give it another 3 hrs to drop to tropical storm levels. It is still a dangerous storm.

 

[turbo]

On the Early Show, the hosts mentioned that there have been levee breaches in New Orleans. Not good!

 

[Astronuc]

On the Early Show, the hosts mentioned that there have been levee breaches in New Orleans. Not good!

Maybe they heard 'levee breaches' and assumed NO. There were levee breaches near Houma, La.

Hurricane Ike causing trouble in parts of Louisiana
http://www.wafb.com/Global/story.asp?S=9000414

http://www.nola.com/hurricane-ike/index.ssf/2008/09/hurricane_ike_surge_breaches_o.html

 

[Evo]

I'm wondering when my family will be able to return to Clear Lake.

They left? I saw an article that said "a neighborhood near the Johnson Space Center had flooding", but they did say which neighborhood, or how much flooding.

Brennan's burned down. That was a Houston institution. I don't think there is a Houstonion that hasn't eaten there at least once.

 

[turbo]

Maybe they heard 'levee breaches' and assumed NO. There were levee breaches near Houma, La.

That makes sense. Shouldn't expect accurate reporting on a morning show that features wine-tasting, fashion, etc. Unfortunately, we don't have a broadcast news channel here, and there's no access to cable on this back-road.

 

[hypatia]

They showed some footage of boats bobbing away in Clear Lake, so I thought, cool, it doesn't look to bad. Then they said the footage was taken in a parking lot.

 

[Astronuc]

From - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KHGX.shtml

THE FOLLOWING WATERSHEDS ARE NEAR BANK FULL OR OVER BANKS ON THE LOWER END:

CLEAR LAKE - FLOODING IN PROGRESS. SURGE AT 11 FEET AT KEMAH AND 9
FEET AT CLEAR LAKE.

CLEAR CREEK - EAST OF FM528 ABOVE BANKFULL AND RISING
LOWER ARMAND - NEAR BANKFULL AND RISING
LOWER CARPENTERS BAYOU - 2/3 BANK FULL ESTIMATED
GREENS BAYOU AT I-10 AND SOUTH - NEAR BANK FULL.
LOWER HUNTING - 1/2 BANK FULL
WHITE OAK NEAR DOWNTOWN - NO PROBLEMS
BUFFALO BAYOU AT SHEPARD AND EASTWARD RISING BUT WELL WITHIN CHANNEL.
SIMS BAYOU AT TELEPHONE RD AND EAST - STARTING TO RISE BUT WELL WITHIN CHANNEL.
BRAYS BAYOU AND LAWNDALE - 2/3 FULL.
VINCE AND LITTLE VINCE BAYOUS AT BANKFULL OF SH 225.

LOW LYING AREAS ON HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL...SAN JACINTO...SAN
JACINTO TRIBUTARIES ARE FLOODING. WATER RISING.

A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST FORK OF THE SAN JACINTO
RIVER AT SHELDON WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND BAYOUS.

We probably won't know until this afternoon when the winds decrease and people can get out. With power out, there will be limited news other than professional news/media.

 

[Astronuc]

Flooding is bad in some areas, but not as bad as predicted in others.
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/09/ike_slamming_in.html

INLAND FLOODING

The storm has produced flooding on a handful of the city's bayous, including:

Clear Creek: At Bay Area Blvd. the stage had reached 11.5 feet, above the flood stage of 8 feet. Still, no significant flooding is currently forecast. Clear Creek in League City also rose to 9.6 feet, above the flood stage of 5 feet, and was forecast to continue rising. Clear Creek at FM528 had reached 12.7 feet, above the flood stage of 12 feet. A continued rise is expected.

White Oak Bayou: At 6 a.m. this morning White Oak Bayou had overtopped its banks. The bayou's stage at Heights Boulevard was 37.6 feet, well above the flood stage of 32 feet. Forecasters say the bayou is expected to rise to 38 or 39 feet. That's the level at which major lowland flooding occurs.

Buffalo Bayou: At 6 a.m. the stage was 23.1 feet, below the flood stage of 28 feet. Forecasters said the bayou should rise to near 29.5 feet this morning, a level which should produce moderate lowland flooding.

Greens Bayou: The bayou's stage near U.S. 59 was at 52.1 feet on Saturday morning, below the flood stage of 55 feet. But the bayou was forecast to rise to near 56.2 feet this afternoon, which should produce some moderate lowland flooding.

http://www.chron.com/ - Probably a reasonable source of info for now.

Storm surge swallows Surfside Beach
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hotstories/5998707.html

Covered by noon
Chief Smith said as of noon the entire island was covered with rushing water that, on average, reached chest-deep.

"There's a lot of areas where the water is over our heads already," Smith said.

"I have seen it this bad before, but it was at the worst point of the storm," he said. "This storm hasn't even gotten here yet."

Councilwoman Peggy Llewellyn wondered what Ike holds for Surfside Beach.

"This is a quaint older town, we have a lot of older homes," she said. "I am worried about them not being built to the standards of today."

As officials sought to shut down the bridge over the Intra-coastal Waterway, the storm surge did it for them, making roadways from any direction impassable.

If the water was high enough to close that bridge, then the island and all the homes would have been submerged. My family used to go there a lot 35+ years ago. That was yesterday - before the storm surge reached its peak.

 

[Evo]

I'm watching Houston tv, they got lucky, the storm surge was only 11-12 feet instead of the predicted 20 feet. Flooding not as bad as predicted. The mayor of Kemah was on and said within the city, mainly just water damage. He wasn't sure how the marina has held up, I'm sure there are a lot of damaged boats.

It'll be interesting to see what the shorelines look like after the water recedes. And of course the numb nuts will rebuild right on the waters edge again.

Anyone that wants live coverage, this is a good link http://www.myfoxhoustonlive.com/

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Whewww, it could have been much worse. Hopefully no one here sustained any serious losses.

 

[Math Is Hard]

They left? I saw an article that said "a neighborhood near the Johnson Space Center had flooding", but they did say which neighborhood, or how much flooding.

Brennan's burned down. That was a Houston institution. I don't think there is a Houstonion that hasn't eaten there at least once.

They drove up to Austin to get out of the way ( I think they were under the mandatory evacuation order), but the news has been pretty good for their neighborhood as far as flooding. We don't know what the wind did to the house yet. They just put on a new roof so I hope that helped.

I think the family beach cabin is probably trashed.

I saw the news about Brennan's. I can't remember if I have ever eaten there.

How are your folks, Evo?

 

[Andre]

I think the family beach cabin is probably trashed.

But your folks seem okay obviously and cabins can be rebuild. I have a hammer.

How are your folks, Evo?

 

[Math Is Hard]

But your folks seem okay obviously and cabins can be rebuild. I have a hammer.

Thank you, Andre. How good are you at hammering underwater?

 

[Andre]

It's indeed not going well with all the water it seems listening to http://www.myfoxhoustonlive.com/

Perhaps not rebuild cabins but solve it like this:

 

[Math Is Hard]

http://www.swedesrealestate.com/News/tabid/86/ctl/ArticleView/mid/832/articleId/770/Default.aspx

While waiting to board a bus, Kathi Norton and her husband Paul Norton said they endured the storm surge from their Crystal Beach home about two blocks from the seaside.

"We got a late start to get out Friday, and there was two feet of water," Kathi Norton said. "There was no way we could get out, because rollover pass was flooded."

As the waves pounded on the Nortons' home standing on 14-foot stilts, they felt the floors buckle.

About midnight, the couple left the home and they watched as it rolled over onto their flagpole.

"We floated on staircases, anything we could get a hold of," Kathi Norton said. "We floated until about 4 a.m. Roofs were coming at us. It was not a pretty picture."