Doctordick said:
Sorry that I didn't notice your post earlier. I went to "Last Page" and got Tournesol's post. The lack of thought in that post so annoyed me that I didn't look back and I missed your post entirely. I apologize for my impatience.
I think it's really bad when you accuse people of doing things you often do yourself. But that's a personal thing, it doesn't really matter.
The critical phrase in your response is that "to a certain extent". That element is not in my presentation.
I said "to a certain extent" because it's possible that our current laws of physics might break down in some specific situation, just like Newtonian mechanics breaks down at relativistic speeds, and all that yada-yada. The fundamental issue is that science does not make claims to absolute truth, only to working models. If you want to claim the absolute truth of modern physics, I'm OK with it as long as you can provide proof, which you say you do. I'm only clarifying what I meant anyway.
I can only conclude that you have misunderstood my comment. If what I said is true, it is neither trivial nor unimportant. (And I would also comment that the fact that you cannot conceive of something does not prove it is not possible. My grandmother (bless her soul) could not conceive of the world being round but that didn't prove it wasn't.)
Misunderstanding abounds... I'm sure you didn't understand what I meant by "conceivable universe". It was certainly not to be taken as something as naive as your grandmother's beliefs about the shape of the earth.
It seems to me you placed too much emphasis on "universe", when to me the important point was "conceivable". I did not say it is impossible for unconceivable universes to exist, all I said was that it is impossible for us to conceive of an unconceivable universe. It's an almost silly statement put that way, but the bottom line is we can't avoid the concepts we have already conceived to describe whatever it is that we describe with those concepts. It's true not only of the physical universe, but also of economics, history, geography, and any intellectual endeavor.
One could go even further and say that the science of physics is a logical consequence of the concepts we use to describe the physical universe.
I don't think there exists a single professional physicist who would agree [that Physics is just a very very complex tautology] or even consider looking at a proof of it were such a proof offered.
I don't know about that. In what way do you think Newton's three laws of motion are not tautologies?
Why do you think everyone presumes I am a crackpot without any discussion of the details of my work?
People usually don't bother examining extraordinary claims unaccompanied by extraordinary evidence. If you are right, what does it mean and how can we verify it?
You are missing a subtle but serious point about "historical data". Your example, "If you toss a coin 100 times and get 80 heads and 20 tails, the chances of getting heads on the 101st toss is 50%, not 80%." is based on what?
Based on the fact that there can only be two outcomes, and that I don't know what determines a particular outcome. If I say future outcomes are a function of the past, I'm assuming there is a reason why I get more heads than tails. I'm assuming causality.
I don't think you understood my point. I was trying to address your notion of "completely random" as opposed to causal. If you believe you're getting 80 heads and 20 tails as a result of chance, you must state the probability of the next toss as 50-50. If you believe you're getting 80-20 because there is a reason for it (real or imaginary), then the outcome is not completely random and you are, essentially, implying causality.
What you appear to be assuming is that the term "historical data" is limited to that 100 coin tosses. Think about that for a moment. If an event (which you call a coin toss) has only occurred 100 times in the history of the universe (as far as you know) and the outcome was 80 heads and 20 tails, would you seriously set forth that your expectations for the 101st trial would be 50/50? It should be clear to you that such an expectation is based on some theory as to what is going on.
Any expectation is based on some
theory of what you think you know about what is going on. It's as much an assumption to think the chance is 80-20 as it is to think it's 50-50, and the assumption has nothing to do with the phenomenon being observed. The key issue here is that you are making a prediction about the future - a statement about what you don't know - an assumption! To predict the future, by any means, is to assume. You can't avoid that.
What I am trying to point out is that the historical outcome must be consistent with your theory of what is going on.
If a toin coss is completely random, the probability of getting 80 heads and 20 tails in 100 tosses is small but still higher than zero. Any probabilistic explanation that doesn't exclude real possibilities cannot be proved wrong, no matter how many times the coin is tossed.
if one is bright enough, one can come up with an explanation for anything.
Which is why the world is full of crackpots. Most explanations are useless, even if they are true.
And secondly, when it comes to creating an explanation, what do you have to go by other than the past ("historical data")?
Logic. You can create a tautology which is always true no matter what the historical data is.
Well, that is a lot already and I think I covered the most important points.
I never meant to throw any insults and I apologize if you felt insulted by what I said. If you would present more reasoned responses, I would be more considerate in my answers. I presume your response is based on a cursory examination of the URL Paul Martin referred to.
It wasn't a response, I didn't even check the url before writing it. I was just laughing at something you said in your post. You probably didn't mean it, but it sounded funny nonetheless.