In Delaware and it is funtime for elections

[airborne18]

I really don't follow politics, but this whole Tea Party targeting Delaware has been very entertaining. I am not from the state, so it has taken me time to get used to the odd politics in the state.

I remember this O'Donnell woman running against Joe Biden. I remember it was bizzare, because Joe Biden didn't even campaign. I think he put up some signs and I guess it was just to burn up money. The party gave her the nod because they needed a sacraficial canidate.

But now it is really weird. O'Donnell is not really campaigning, and the rally's have more out of state people than Delawareans. The news coverage locally is not what I would normally classify as campaign coverage.

The last thing I saw was a weird group whose platform is based on the Birther stuff and anti-abortion. Oh and they want the first time buyer credit increased or something.

It would be amusing, except that money is being spent on this.

Oh and this is just as odd. Both major candiates from the Republican and Democrat party are already acting as if the primary were already done. And ignoring the O'donnell woman. It is just too weird for me.

 

[mheslep]

Appears O'Donnel may now beat the incumbent Castle in the R primary, I'm happy to see. O'Donnel is up by 3 points w/ 3 point margin of error, mostly notable because she was clearly behind until recently.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42049.html

 

[mheslep]

O'Donnell is not really campaigning,

and the rally's have more out of state people than Delawareans. .

Do you have a source for these two claims?

 

[airborne18]

Do you have a source for these two claims?

Yeah the legion rally was right behind my house on friday night.

You have to understand that delaware does not have a big population and it is not hard to know who the players are in any circle.

The tea party is actually not that big in Delaware, the 9/12 Patriots are the big group. I know the one organizer of the State Tea party and the problem is that Abortion is a big issue, and the Tea party does not have social issues on their agenda. That is why split from the Tea Party and built up the 9/12 Patriots.

The issue in delaware for conservatives is that they really cannot impact the general election. I live in southern delaware, and it is where the conseratives dominate. The problem is that most of the population is in northern delaware, and they are far from conservative.

Each election people don't even bother campaigning in lower delaware because it never really counts. It always goes republican, but there are not enough votes to impact the general election.

Now this is where O'Donnell will dominate. Sussex County, and I bet she does poll better than 50% against Castle. But again, she can get every vote in Sussex County and it will not impact the outcome. She has to get the northern vote. That is they only voting that counts.

That is why everyone questions polls in Delaware. If you ask the south, yeah I know it will go for O'donnell, but it only matters if she can impact the upper state.

Other than the tea party rallies, I cannot figure out where O'Donnell is campaigning. Castle either, but he is at least around. Most of the money is being thrown to the Philadelphia tv stations, because those are the tv stations Northern Delaware gets..

In Southern Delaware we get the Baltimore channels, and there is nothing from the O'Donnell campaign there. It makes sense, since she can count on the lower county.

I don't think it will be as close as the poll indicates. If the poll included lower delaware, then it is flawed.

 

[airborne18]

One thing that is odd, O'Donnell's contribtuions are 99.9% from out of state. Only a couple out of 200+ contributors were from Delaware.

That seems odd, considering she has such a huge backing by the poll.

 

[mheslep]

One thing that is odd, O'Donnell's contribtuions are 99.9% from out of state. Only a couple out of 200+ contributors were from Delaware...

I understand you are exaggerating (99.9) to make a point, but what source are you drawing on to make the general point about contributions? FEC? Looking out your back window won't get you a contributions list.

Edit:
Here for instance on the FEC's individual contrib list for O'Donnell there are 94 Del residents out of a total 264. And then there are 52 from just across the river in PA.
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/com_ind/C00449595/

 

[airborne18]

I looked at the FEC, not that site, but the FEC site directly for just this election. I think that is the difference.

http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/HSProcessContributorList.do

Do this for the 2010 elections, for o"donnell. And there are a handful from Delaware, but if you look at it you will see that the amount of money, it was nothing compared to out of state.

But even the number of donors this cycle from DE is nothing. The previous elections she did pull a fair number from in-state, I agree.

one of the local commentators in sussex county, he is the ultra conservative and is very involved in the 9/12 Patriots made a comment that Friday night he talked to O'Donnell at the rally. And they were all conceding that they would not win. ( wgmd radio, bill colley posted on their site about it ). So I wonder where the pollsters get this idea.

I looked in the news and O'Donnell is not touting it.

The general feeling is that O'Donnell is running to raise her national profile. She is on the National talk shows, and I keep getting automated calls with Palin asking for money. O'Donnell has debt, so there is general view that this is to raise money to pay her election debts and bills. And she is looking for a commenting job nationally.

 

[airborne18]

Shep.. I am not trying to throw rocks. But I am not a Tea Party follower. I do know them and a few of the 9/12 patriots. In Delaware they are not doing a good job. A fellow paratrooper I know is very involved with the 9/12 patriots, so I do know their platform in Delaware. Funny we just had a talk on the phone yesterday, and I told him how crazy they are in lower delaware.. ( he is in the north ). And he agreed, they are a little out there.

But he did seem to indicate that there is a sizable following upstate. So maybe there will be a nice run at it for her.

I know the 9/12 says there are 2600 members, and I would guess that it probably increased in the past week.

i thiink a large turnout tomorrow hurts O'Donnell. Honestly a lot of people didn't even know there was a Primary against castlle, but with all the attention it has made it a big deal.

It is all about New Castle County, that is where the voting battle is. I am a conservative and I always felt cheated, because Sussex county is never a factor, and very few campaigning ever occurs here. ( No respect ).

You cannot look at the 2008 election and work this from those numbers. She got 35%, but that is the people who always vote against Biden, or any democrat.

 

[mheslep]

I looked at the FEC, not that site, but the FEC site directly for just this election. I think that is the difference.

http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/HSProcessContributorList.do

Do this for the 2010 elections, for o"donnell. And there are a handful from Delaware, but if you look at it you will see that the amount of money, it was nothing compared to out of state.

<shrug>
Contributor total from that FEC itemized individuals site was $134k, 231 contributors. Of that,
DE ~$18k (13%), 43
PA ~$46k (35%), 56

 

[airborne18]

<shrug>
Contributor total from that FEC itemized individuals site was $134k, 231 contributors. Of that,
DE ~$18k (13%), 43
PA ~$46k (35%), 56

43 was more than I thought, so I stand corrected. It was low $$ amount that I suprised me. One thing I did see is that she raised another 26,000 since the tea party came to town. But that is not in the totals, so that might move it more to local donations.

I am not sure what the PA contributions have to do with it. Most of those donations are well before she started hitting the Philly TV stations. It is the large numbers from TX and CA that really hit me more than anything.

( Delaware and PA are apples and organges. Delaware actually has a grudge against PA. Delaware is tax free, and there is a whole bunch of shopping in DE just across the state line. PA wanted DE to tax PA residents who made purchases in DE. DE laughed in their face. DE does not even transfer traffic points to PA, that is how big the grudge is )

If you look at the map, the whole pennisula is called the Eastern Shore. DELMARVA. MD and DE have a close relatioship, but PA and DE do not.

Oh, and O'Donnell did do a bunch of interviews today on the networks, they apparently were at the WGMD studio. ( Wgmd is the major ultra conservative radio station. At least in the south.. I know it looks small, but that is the major talk station in the southern conservative part of the state. )

So that is a good source if you are following O'Donnell. It is the station that the 9/12 patriots follow like a relgion. But that will clue you in. ( Just to get an idea about the conservative part of the state.. you will see a White Supremist group is planning a march ).

The News Journal is the major paper in the state, though the conservatives hate, but it is out of the North. WBOC is the major TV station for local news. You should find some good local coverage.

I wish I lived up north, so I could actually see if turnout is big when I go to the polls.

This is actually an interesting problem for the conservatives. If O'Donnell wins tomorrow then the Democrats keep the Senate. She will never beat the Democrats in November. ( it is impossible, for any republican to win they must take a nice percentage of the democrats in the state. There is no way she can do it. At best she will be 8-10 points behind. ).

It still does not jive for someone who is polling ahead of the party canidate. the money flows.

 

[mheslep]

I am not sure what the PA contributions have to do with it. Most of those donations are well before she started hitting the Philly TV stations. It is the large numbers from TX and CA that really hit me more than anything.

( Delaware and PA are apples and organges. Delaware actually has a grudge against PA. Delaware is tax free, and there is a whole bunch of shopping in DE just across the state line. PA wanted DE to tax PA residents who made purchases in DE. DE laughed in their face. DE does not even transfer traffic points to PA, that is how big the grudge is ) [...]

A large fraction of the DE population is up by Wilmington, and many people over in south east PA are commuting or doing business in the Wilmington area and vice versa, including shopping as you suggest. It is for business motivations such as these, and not traffic tickets, that I suggest many people are going write a check for a neighboring US Senate campaign.

 

[airborne18]

A large fraction of the DE population is up by Wilmington, and many people over in south east PA are commuting or doing business in the Wilmington area and vice versa, including shopping as you suggest. It is for business motivations such as these, and not traffic tickets, that I suggest many people are going write a check for a neighboring US Senate campaign.

Well that logic does have some merit. A good part of the donations are from the Philly suburbs, which is close to Delaware. I personally never paid attention to Delaware politics when I lived in the philly burbs, but that is me.

Honestly most people in PA follow Jersey elections. Because they use the philly tv stations, and their races are down in the mud slugfests.. all of them. And the ads get so nasty it is like that old Al Franken skit on Second City.

 

[airborne18]

Shep.

Just got back from voting and there were actually people there. Most people will vote tonight in the next hour or so. Most of the polling places are in schools and people avoid voting early in the day.

on wgmd they posted that turnout is expected to be 30%.. that is actually very good. These are the votes that will pad it for Tea Party, since the northern part is where they need to fight for votes.

I also heard that the GOP is really pressing everyone to go vote. They are pulling out all the stops.

I think large turnout in the end will hurt the teaparty, but should be interesting. If you are following results, New Castle County is all that really matters. Sussex county is the tea party stronghold, so if they don't win that it should be a pretty good indicator. Sussex county will probaby report results fairly quickly.

 

[Gokul43201]

Just for fun, would you like to put down your prediction for the R primary (with % votes)?

On a related note, recent polling numbers show Coons favored over O'Donnell, but losing to Castle. My experience is that voter sentiment usually readjusts (significantly) after the Primary, so I don't put any weight on pre-primary polls for general election results.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_delaware_senate_race.html

 

[airborne18]

The race in Delaware that people outside of the state don't realize is the fight between the Republican house canidates. Rollins and Uqurart or whatever. Uquart is the 9/12 patriot candiate, so that should be interesting.

We only have one seat in the House. and that is a hot race for the state. And the Tea Party is not even backing the 9/12 nutcase.

( Funny thing is that the state offices that have primaries are where the highest turnout will be, here the people pay attention to the state issues. I will give them credit ).

I think Castle at around 58%. That is a guess really. O'Donnell was smart, she announced right at the cutoff for registering for the primary, that locked out the independents from registring. I think low turnout hurts Castle. But the state party is taking it serious and out dragging people to the primary. So I think Castle does not have an issue.

The big issue today, is that a lot of people want to vote in the Republican primary that can't, just to show O'Donnell that national commentators have no business in Delaware.

I would not count on any polls on the primary. They usually don't do them in Delaware. The problem is that the southern part of the state is hardcore right. But 80%+ of the state is up north, and they really are the ones that elect people in the state.

They can poll all they want in the two lower counties, but they are very slanted to the right. The canidates know this and never come down here, because it just never impacts the election.

It will matter for the primary, if the whole lower county votes, in a Primary. But that is not going to happen.

That is the thing. Republicans do not have a chance in the state, they need to take votes from the democrats to win the General Election. O'Donnell has no chance in the General Election, zero.

Castle is actually very well liked. All of the federally elected in Delaware served at the state level, or county level. You have to build support and have a track record.

That is the odd thing. O"Donnell could win a pretty high profile office in Sussex county and have waited an election cycle and then had some credibility.

It has been fun to watch. So we will see in an hour.

 

[airborne18]

This is what the 9/12 Patriots go around doing. this is why O'Donnell will lose..

http://gawker.com/5323938/meet-crazy-eileen-the-birther

 

[BobG]

How could she not win? I mean look at her stand on the issues:

O'Donnell on masturbation: “The Bible says that lust in your heart is committing adultery. So you can't masturbate without lust.”

O'Donnell on sending out pictures of herself in a bikini to attract voters: “I’m not concerned with the reason you vote for me as long as you vote for me.”

Yeah, baby! I can't wait to get my 8x10 of O'Donnell in a bikini so I can ... oh, wait ... Darn!

http://www.thedailybeast.com/galleries/2092/1/

 

[Office_Shredder]

O'Donnell on masturbation: “The Bible says that lust in your heart is committing adultery. So you can't masturbate without lust.”

This is not a logical conclusion!

 

[Gokul43201]

This is not a logical conclusion!

If you grant that the finish was a slip of the tongue (i.e., she meant to say "you can't masturbate without committing adultery") then there is some semblance of logical reasoning (modulo an assumption or two), but such a statement would almost certainly be political poison.

 

[airborne18]

This is not a logical conclusion!

Personally I love how an unmarried woman is preaching to me about family values. Especially when she cannot take care of herself.

 

[airborne18]

Looks like O'Donnell won, apparenty that poll was pretty close. Wow.

There goes my career as a political commentator. But if I become a kook I can enter politics and get backing from the patriot group.

 

[lisab]

Looks like O'Donnell won, apparenty that poll was pretty close. Wow.

There goes my career as a political commentator. But if I become a kook I can enter politics and get backing from the patriot group.

Wow indeed, that's quite a surprise. Now I wonder if she'll move to the center for the general election.

 

[airborne18]

Wow indeed, that's quite a surprise. Now I wonder if she'll move to the center for the general election.

Well the groups that supported her are not really the compromise type. I actually tried asking questions that went beyond the bumper stickers to one of the groups and they just attack you.

very angry bunch. She has got an uphill battle, the Democrats only have to vote party lines and the Democrat will win. They outnumber republicans.

 

[lisab]

Well the groups that supported her are not really the compromise type. I actually tried asking questions that went beyond the bumper stickers to one of the groups and they just attack you.

very angry bunch. She has got an uphill battle, the Democrats only have to vote party lines and the Democrat will win. They outnumber republicans.

I bet a win like this makes lot of Republican campaign advisors want to breath into paper bags!

 

[airborne18]

I bet a win like this makes lot of Republican campaign advisors want to breath into paper bags!

Lol, they see a stampede of elephants.

Tomorrow I am going to meet with the campaign manager of the Democrat Coons.

 

[mheslep]

Well the groups that supported her are not really the compromise type. I actually tried asking questions that went beyond the bumper stickers to one of the groups and they just attack you.

very angry bunch. She has got an uphill battle, the Democrats only have to vote party lines and the Democrat will win. They outnumber republicans.

I would have thought your earlier attempts would have slowed down, if not retired, your predilection for predictions and mass characterizations.

 

[mheslep]

Wow indeed, that's quite a surprise. Now I wonder if she'll move to the center for the general election.

No chance, so say I. The only reason she has gotten this far is by making clear she is not another go-along-to-get-along pol like Castle, visibly the main issue driving the electorate. If she abandons that position her support will vanish.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

No chance, so say I. The only reason she has gotten this far is by making clear she is not another go-along-to-get-along pol like Castle, visibly the main issue driving the electorate. If she abandons that position her support will vanish.

And if she doesn't she won't carry the mainstream. Either way she's toast, which is why the Dems were celebrating.

Interesting that you would seemingly rate compromise and partisanship so low. It is the essence of Democracy.

 

[mheslep]

And if she doesn't she won't carry the mainstream. Either way she's toast, which is why the Dems were celebrating.

By so stating you make your own assumptions about the make up and the opinions of the 'mainstream'. Though I doubt she'll win, I think you are mistaken about that makeup. We'll see.

Interesting that you would seemingly rate compromise and partisanship so low. It is the essence of Democracy.

Good, then the D's can try it come January instead of claiming the opposition consists solely of bigots and subservients, lives only to exploit fear and ignorance, are closet fascists, and has a secret handshake with Fox and talk radio. Many things are the "essence of a Democracy", but in any case a decision by the electorate (not legislators) to choose one distinct political and economic point of view over another murky one that blows with the wind has nothing to do with compromise and partisanship on the part of Delaware voters, or mine.

 

[CRGreathouse]

By so stating you make your own assumptions about the make up and the opinions of the 'mainstream'. Though I doubt she'll win, I think you are mistaken about that makeup. We'll see.

I think Ivan was simply referring to Black's theorem.