News In Delaware and it is funtime for elections

[CRGreathouse]

Nice discussion, but makes an over generous assumption about the nature of the domain space (ordinal) in my view.

Presumably it's multidimensional, in which case Black' theorem fails (and Condorcet's paradox rules). Heck, it's even known to fail for one and a half dimensions -- a left-right axis and a quality axis (on which all voters agree). But it's interesting to consider the one-dimensional case because in Duvergerian states like the US it's often a good first approximation, and because it's the only case where we really have good properties to analyze.

 

[airborne18]

As punishment, well my shame, is that I changed my avatar to an image with me and Mike Castle. The one that lost.

This actually was from the other day at a Veterans event. No I don't smile when I actually have to leave the house. Was not a good day really. CNN was at the event and none of the coverage hit the air.

My wife is happy because it would have been of me not finishing sentences ( real bad day )..

You people think I mindlessly ramble here.. geez you ain't seen nuttin.

 

[talk2glenn]

Nice discussion, but makes an over generous assumption about the nature of the domain space (ordinal) in my view. I believe that many voters entering the process this year see the issue as entrenched, self serving, business as usual politicians versus those unconnected with traditional party machines and media glad handing. On such a 'political & medial machine' graph, D&R are closely grouped, while the T candidates are way out there, as in that space political 'right' and 'left' have little (no?) meaning.

Most importantly, the M voter is not between the D & R points in such a view, it's close to T. On many issues, I grant the D,R, and T distribution is as Gokul indicates, with T to the right of R on most issues and the median between D & R. So, if a T candidate makes the (faulty) assumption that the electorate is operating with an M between D & R calculus and moves toward D&R on the political issues, simultaneously she would seen as moving back to the traditional 'machines and media' D&R on my graph, moving away from M, when in reality the dominant M issue was all along close to T, then support will likely vanish.

(above somewhat rambling I know, but got to go)

This.

Everyone else is assuming an electorate evenly divided between liberal and conservative, with the winning median left of R and right of D.

Clearly, this is not the case. The electorate is both anti-incumbent and more conservative than that of 2 years ago. The D is also assumed to have moved leftward relative to the R and the original popular median.

The most electable candidate, generally, is closer to T than R and especially D this year. Locally, there may be differentiation, however.

 

[Gokul43201]

Everyone else is assuming an electorate evenly divided between liberal and conservative, with the winning median left of R and right of D.

Everyone else is not assuming this.

I, however, did, in my example cases. And my justification for modeling the distribution as symmetric (besides for simplicity) is based on my expectation that Conservatives will not control more that 55% of either the Senate or the House after this election - I consider that pretty close to an even split.

And let's not forget that this is all gross simplification, if for no other reason than that it's a simple 1-d model.

The most electable candidate, generally, is closer to T than R and especially D this year.

That's a bold prediction! Let's check back in a couple months.

 

[BobG]

Nice discussion, but makes an over generous assumption about the nature of the domain space (ordinal) in my view. I believe that many voters entering the process this year see the issue as entrenched, self serving, business as usual politicians versus those unconnected with traditional party machines and media glad handing. On such a 'political & medial machine' graph, D&R are closely grouped, while the T candidates are way out there, as in that space political 'right' and 'left' have little (no?) meaning.

Presumably it's multidimensional, in which case Black' theorem fails (and Condorcet's paradox rules). Heck, it's even known to fail for one and a half dimensions -- a left-right axis and a quality axis (on which all voters agree). But it's interesting to consider the one-dimensional case because in Duvergerian states like the US it's often a good first approximation, and because it's the only case where we really have good properties to analyze.

mshelp's post has some truth to it, especially in a multi-dimensional case. In a way, this is happening 2 years too early for Republicans. The mood has some similarities to the mood that propelled Jimmy Carter to victory. One of the favorite cartoons of the time was of Jimmy Carter and his huge smile saying, "Heck, I've never even seen Washigton."

Just don't put too much emphasis on it. The reality is that winning an upset victory in the primaries in a Republican state/district is likely to result in a win in the general election. An upset victory in a Democratic state/district is likely to result in a loss (O'Donnell is going to lose - heck, Castle would have been an underdog; just an underdog with a chance).

The real test comes in the toss up states/districts. Tea-party candidates win a few of these and they have some credibility.

 

[Gokul43201]

Just don't put too much emphasis on it. The reality is that winning an upset victory in the primaries in a Republican state/district is likely to result in a win in the general election. An upset victory in a Democratic state/district is likely to result in a loss (O'Donnell is going to lose - heck, Castle would have been an underdog; just an underdog with a chance).

Rasmussen agrees. They just downgraded (upgraded?) Delaware from "leans Dem" to "solid Dem" after the Primary results were announced.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ections/election_2010_senate_balance_of_power

 

[BobG]

Just looking at a few races with tea partiers:

Colorado: Ken Buck is a toss up against the Democratic incumbent
Nevada: Sharron Angle is a toss up against the Democratic incumbent
Florida: Marco Rubio has a double digit lead against former Republican Crist and a Dem (turns out Crist is getting more votes from Dems than Republicans)
Alaska: Joe Miller has turned a Republican lock into a 6 point lead that's closing.
Kentucky, Utah: Tea party candidates in a Rep state will win easily.
Delaware: O'Donnell turned the race from leans Dem to a lock for Dems.

I'd say Tea Party candidates are 3-2 as far as doing better or worse than establishment candidates. But the three positives will be wins, while the two negatives probably won't turn out different than the election would have with an establishment Republican.

I'm surprised by Florida. I would have bet Rubio and Crist would split the Republican vote and make Meeks the favorite, with Crist second, and Rubio third. It's turned out exactly opposite with Crist and Meeks splitting the Democratic vote - so far. Normally, once a third party candidate falls behind, the votes go back to the major party candidates (Rubio & Meeks). Could Florida go even more bizarre than they have so far and voters abandon the third place major party candidate instead? If Meeks were out of the race, Crist would be a near lock. I don't think the same could be said about Crist dropping out.

 

[airborne18]

The Republicans are not a driving force in Delaware. Out of the gate the Democrats have a major advantage. Believe it or not Biden is still has clout ( don't ask me I have no clue why ). If his son, who is the Attorney General would have ran, even castle would have had a hard time.

A republican primary in Delaware is probably not a good indicator of the electorae in the state. Though the turnout was outragous, and I totally pegged it wrong.

However, I talked to several campaigns today, and they all echoed the same thing. They didn't like how the 9/12 Patriots and O'Donnell attacked Castle. Dirty politics is new to Delaware.

What they did is attack Castle, and then when he defended himself they portrayed him as going negative. It was very effective.

The Republicans must peal off 15% away from any Democrat to win the office. The Tea Party might get some angry moderates, but they also split the republican party. The state party might give her money because they have to, but they are not backing her at all.

I am not making predicitions. But if you look at Bidens last race for Senate, against O'Donnell as a matter of fact, you will see how the vote usually breaks for Democrats.
It is not even a close race at this point. She will keep whatever she got in the primary, but she will be hard pressed to increase it much. There are probably some Independents and Moderate Democrats mad at O'bama.

Also Delaware has a large Gay population, which she will never get. And most of the voters are in Wilmington, a very liberal inner city.

Coons was county manager, not sure what that is, never heard of one. But he has a large following in Wilmington. That city alone is enough to pull the vote for coons.

The tracking polls show that O'Donnell is not clinching the Republicans, and after the way it went I doubt she will.

Delaware voters generally will vote for the best for the state, and will break party lines. So O'Donnell can get more support. But she has to just to get in striking distance.

I think that is why you hear that nationally the Tea Party has too many races to back everyone, so they probably willl not be putting much more into Delaware. Though her website is not even campainging anymore, she is just asking for money.

 

[edward]

The Tea Party candidates got a lot of out of state support here in AZ. It came in the form of TV ads. Jesse Kelly tea party candidate and college drop out beat Jonathan Paton a former military attorney.

My republican relatives are still in shock. Will the real republican party please stand up??

 

[airborne18]

The Tea Party candidates got a lot of out of state support here in AZ. It came in the form of TV ads. Jesse Kelly tea party candidate and college drop out beat Jonathan Paton a former military attorney.

My republican relatives are still in shock. Will the real republican party please stand up??

The ironic part is that they only care about themselves, and through that they will end up handing Obama reelection. Just like when Perot handed the election to Clinton. In Delaware they handed the Senate back to the Democrats. It was a seat that was going to change party to the Republicans.

In Delaware it was not even about issues, in their agenda, they only had Castle on Cap and Trade. That was it. The 9/12 Patriots in DE are anti-abortion, so they had that on him.

O'Donnell is the same thing, mostly out of state money. I can't wait to see her next FEC report to see where it came from

 

[Al68]

For those who still think the Tea Party movement is a fringe movement, a recent poll shows their support increasing among Americans. A whopping 29% of Americans polled said they were Tea Party supporters.

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/08/26/nearly-30-percent-support-tea-party-poll-finds/

 

[airborne18]

For those who still think the Tea Party movement is a fringe movement, a recent poll shows their support increasing among Americans. A whopping 29% of Americans polled said they were Tea Party supporters.

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/08/26/nearly-30-percent-support-tea-party-poll-finds/

How is it a movement? Once you start funding and endorsing canidates, and are organized, doesn't it become a party? I mean eventually if you don't get the Republican party to change ideals don't you eventually have to create a party??

 

[airborne18]

And I don't have an issue with the Tea Party. The 9/12 Patriots I do. In Delaware the Tea Party keeps falling apart, because the 9/12 Patriots include social issues, and most of the people want the anti-abortion componenet. That is why Delaware keeps having to launch new Tea Party groups.

 

[MATLABdude]

Looks like O'Donnell won, apparenty that poll was pretty close. Wow.

There goes my career as a political commentator. But if I become a kook I can enter politics and get backing from the patriot group.

Or at least make a decent living, according to O'Donnell's Ex-Campaign Manager (for her 2008 run against Biden, not the recent one which just finished up):
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42141.html

 

[lisab]

I think O'Donnell is toast. A video has come to light in which she admits she once 'dabbled' in witchcraft.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39246797/ns/politics-decision_2010/

Honestly, you can't make this stuff up!

 

[airborne18]

I think O'Donnell is toast. A video has come to light in which she admits she once 'dabbled' in witchcraft.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39246797/ns/politics-decision_2010/

Honestly, you can't make this stuff up!

I posted a public apology to all Americans on slate. All of this stuff was out there before the election, and the more it comes out, the more she claims they are attacks from her opponents. And she bats her eyelashes. Meanwhile she has her group out their being vile attack dogs.

She has been hiding from the Delaware press for a while, except for the conservative radio stations. Now she is even hiding from the national press.

The Democrats are even mad. It is the anti-abortion groups in the state that really are behind her. And the way they went after Mike Castle, everyone in the political circles are mad.

Delaware is not used to this kind of vile campaigning. It is a small state and everyone knows everyone in the political world. And it never gets nasty, and people vote across party lines.

She will eventually get nailed for embezzeling campaign funds.


( the real funny one is about people hiding in her shrubs. And that is not even something she said years ago, it was just a few weeks ago ).

 

[airborne18]

And she never had a chance to win the seat in Delaware. Winning the nomination is one thing, she filed for running right before the deadline for registering to vote in the Primary. Nobody was expecting a Republican runoff, so the independents didn't affilate in time. Alot of voters were locked out of the primary because of Delaware's weird rules.

But make no mistake, Delaware is a liberal state and a Republican like her cannot win. It will not be close. Look at her previous attempts, that is pretty much the party split.

 

[mheslep]

Hmm, O'donnell was 11 points behind a theoretical match with Coons before the primary, and is still 11 points back after. Unfortunately for O'donnell, the other successful candidates (like Brown) closed on their opponents substantially right after the primary.

September 15, 2010
O: 42%
C: 53%
September 2, 2010
O: 36%
C: 47%

 

[Gokul43201]

Those look like the Rasmussen numbers (500 likelies). Worth keeping in mind that the error bar at 95% confidence is \pm 4\%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...es/toplines_delaware_senate_september_15_2010

 

[mheslep]

Those look like the Rasmussen numbers (500 likelies). Worth keeping in mind that the error bar at 95% confidence is \pm 4\%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...es/toplines_delaware_senate_september_15_2010

Yes! Sorry I forgot the link.

 

[airborne18]

Keep in mind that we had two major primaries on the Republican side. While O'Donnell is getting all of the attention, Rollins and uquhart was along the same lines. And the vote tallies are about the same.

To put this in perspective, the Tea Party itself did impact the vote, it was the 9/12 Patriots. The Tea Party didn't even endorse Uquhart. O'Donnell and Uquahart are both 9/12 Patriot backed canidates. Which are too conservative for the tea party.

They are angry anti-abortion and birthers.

I have talked to people I know in the various parties, and November will be interesting. It is not that these candidates won, it is the dirty tactics they used. Especially with Castle.

The 9/12 Patriots go around and shout down any political event, over what? The birther issue. It is insanity.

I would not expect either canidate to get many more votes. You could probably add a few thousand indpendents to the primary totals, but that is probably about it. The Democrats really will come out in force. They actually like Castle, he has served this state well, considering it is a liberal state.

 

[airborne18]

the irony is that the Republicans are losing a seat in the House, and they will not gain a seat they would have.

The person running for the house for the Democrats was Castles Lt Gov ( yeah he was a democrat ). That tells you how this state views the parties. They actually have a "bury the hatchet" day after the election. The state is not used to nasty politics like New Jersey.

 

[nismaratwork]

Keep in mind that we had two major primaries on the Republican side. While O'Donnell is getting all of the attention, Rollins and uquhart was along the same lines. And the vote tallies are about the same.

To put this in perspective, the Tea Party itself did impact the vote, it was the 9/12 Patriots. The Tea Party didn't even endorse Uquhart. O'Donnell and Uquahart are both 9/12 Patriot backed canidates. Which are too conservative for the tea party.

They are angry anti-abortion and birthers.

I have talked to people I know in the various parties, and November will be interesting. It is not that these candidates won, it is the dirty tactics they used. Especially with Castle.

The 9/12 Patriots go around and shout down any political event, over what? The birther issue. It is insanity.

I would not expect either canidate to get many more votes. You could probably add a few thousand indpendents to the primary totals, but that is probably about it. The Democrats really will come out in force. They actually like Castle, he has served this state well, considering it is a liberal state.

Thanks for this, I admit I don't know very much about Delaware or its politics, even having lived nearby for over 10 years (not anymore). This was very elucidating, and I checked the "bury the hatchet" day... all interesting.

 

[Office_Shredder]

The state is not used to nasty politics like New Jersey.

This monster cannot be stopped. We believe the disease may transmittable through both sound waves and certain light wave frequencies, particularly those used in radio and television transmission. Your way of life as you know it is over

 

[nismaratwork]

This monster cannot be stopped. We believe the disease may transmittable through both sound waves and certain light wave frequencies, particularly those used in radio and television transmission. Your way of life as you know it is over

...Now that is ominous ... do all our base belong to you now?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

O'DONNELL: They are — they are doing that here in the United States. American scientific companies are cross-breeding humans and animals and coming up with mice with fully functioning human brains. So they're already into this experiment...

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,311946,00.html

Brought to you by the Tea Party and Sarah Palin. Are these really the people we want running the country?

 

[gravenewworld]

Lived in DE for over 20+ years. O'Donnell will not win.

 

[mheslep]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,311946,00.html

Brought to you by the Tea Party and Sarah Palin. Are these really the people we want running the country?

Not my first choice, but if the choice is between O'donnell and the last guy to hold that Senate seat a full term, yeah I go with O'donnell [1]. BTW, if O'donnell had added tissue to the end of ...fully functioning human brain and used future tense, as in fully functioning human brain tissue she'd have been correctly referring to ongoing chimera research [2].

[1] http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/completelist/0,29569,1895156,00.html" :

"I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that's a storybook, man."

"In Delaware, the largest portion of the population is Indian-Americans," said Biden. "You cannot go to a 7-11 or a Dunkin' Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent... I'm not joking."

Telling wheelchair bound Missouri Senator Chuck Graham to stand up to be recognized at a rally. "Chuck, stand up, let the people see you," said Biden at the rally. He than noticed the wheelchair and added, "Oh, God love ya...What am I talking about?"

I actually like VP Biden, I just don't want him in office because of his policy views, and (IMO) he's barely qualified to be President. But despite this gaffe parade I won't write posts suggesting he's a crack pot.

[2] Chimera research from Stanford's Weissman:

No one knows what the consequences will be as the proportion of human cells in an animal increases. Weissman and others, for example, have envisioned one day making a mouse with fully "humanised" brain tissue.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=human-animal-chimeras
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/12/AR2005121201388.html

*Edit: BTW, if O'donnell was running for any kind of executive office, Mayor or Governor say, I'd have a different opinion, one less accommodating to her.

 

[nismaratwork]

Not my first choice, but if the choice is between O'donnell and the last guy to hold that Senate seat a full term, yeah I go with O'donnell [1]. BTW, if O'donnell had added tissue to the end of ...fully functioning human brain and used future tense, as in fully functioning human brain tissue she'd have been correctly referring to ongoing chimera research [2].

[1] http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/completelist/0,29569,1895156,00.html" :
I actually like VP Biden, I just don't want him in office because of his policy views, and he's barely qualified to be President. But despite this gaffe parade I won't write posts suggesting he's a crack pot.

[2] Chimera research from Stanford's Weissman:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=human-animal-chimeras
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/12/AR2005121201388.html

Full disclosure here: do you think she made a gaffe, or do you think she believed precisely what she said? If it's the latter, I'd rather see that seat empty than filled by her... and if she meant "tissue", the question naturally follows: so what? So far the quote "envisions" in the same way one might envision a future where we all have nano-machine assisted immune systems: far away and utterly uncertain.

Biden is a gaffe-machine, but they're not hysterical or substantial... just dumb. If he suggested the fellow in the wheelchair could sit up because he demanded it then he'd be in O'Donnell land.

 

[mheslep]

Full disclosure here: do you think she made a gaffe, or do you think she believed precisely what she said?

Full disclosure? Why preface the sentence with that? Anyway, my speculation as to what she 'really meant' is useless and would be misdirection.

and if she meant "tissue", the question naturally follows: so what?

See the actual interview/discussion link, which was about the politics of human cloning. Chimera research has a bearing on cloning.

So far the quote "envisions" in the same way one might envision a future where we all have nano-machine assisted immune systems: far away and utterly uncertain.

OT, but mice - human chimera research is not 'far away' at all as the Sci Amer research links and chimera biology in general will show you. Mice chimera's have already been created by this researcher using human immune systems.

 

[BobG]

Not my first choice, but if the choice is between O'donnell and the last guy to hold that Senate seat a full term, yeah I go with O'donnell [1]. BTW, if O'donnell had added tissue to the end of ...fully functioning human brain and used future tense, as in fully functioning human brain tissue she'd have been correctly referring to ongoing chimera research [2].


I actually like VP Biden, I just don't want him in office because of his policy views, and he's barely qualified to be President. But despite this gaffe parade I won't write posts suggesting he's a crack pot.

A gaffe is mangling what you're intending to say so badly your point gets lost (either because your statement becomes unintelligible or because people are laughing so hard they don't remember there actually was an intended point).

It's possible that O'Donnell's quote was a gaffe. What she said has to be taken in context with the other things she said. (Noscitur a sociis - A word is known by the company it keeps). It's hard to know for certain what she meant by that particular phrase, but it didn't sound like a gaffe to me.

On the other hand, I think Palin's "refudiate" was a legitimate gaffe... until she realized that misusing a difficult word made her someone that the uneducated could identify with. Her gaffes prevent her from being mistaken for one of intellectual elite. Bush seemed to almost take pride in proving he didn't belong to the intellectual elite, as well, so Palin's using a proven strategy.

Seeing as how Palin is using a tactic that's proven to work, I don't think you could call her a crackpot, but I do find it disturbing that she takes pride in proving she's stupid enough to lead the ignorant.

And, O'Donnell seems to be attempting to imitate Palin's success - except it's hard to be a Mama Grizzly when you have no cubs, plus, as incredible as it may seem to some, O'Donnell just isn't as intelligent as Palin.

(Actually, I don't think Plain is stupid. She does tend to come unglued and lose composure under pressure, which qualifies as its own bad trait when it comes to running a country.)

 

[nismaratwork]

Full disclosure? Why preface the sentence with that? Anyway, my speculation as to what she 'really meant' is useless and would be misdirection.

See the actual interview/discussion link, which was about the politics of human cloning. Chimera research has a bearing on cloning.

OT, but mice - human chimera research is not 'far away' at all as the Sci Amer research links and chimera biology in general will show you. Mice chimera's have already been created by this researcher using human immune systems.

Really?... I think understanding what you believe she meant before launching into a diversion about gaffes is very relevant. I believe your links to chimera research is the misdirection, so... do you believe she said what she meant?

Mice chimeras are FAR from having brains completely "humanized", which is what I meant. The level of sophistication, and given the hurdles that pop up as the complexity increases, would lead a reasonable person to believe that the chimeras of today do not herald something deeper anytime soon, much as a single nano-actuator doesn't herald an immidiate future of nano-surgeons in our tissues.

 

[mheslep]

It's possible that O'Donnell's quote was a gaffe. What she said has to be taken in context with the other things she said. (Noscitur a sociis - A word is known by the company it keeps).

I agree, at least when the words are reasonably contemporaneous. I suggest also, however, that association is the fundamental reason smear campaigns work. So then if you take for granted 'the other things she said' are, say, hysterical (?), then what do you have in mind? The 1996 MTV lust and masturbation comment you posted up thread? <shrug> Apparently she was a Roman Catholic (then?), so I wouldn't call agreement with the http://www.vatican.va/archive/ccc_css/archive/catechism/p3s2c2a6.htm#2352" by an RC hysterical, even if the statement was in my view simplistic.

 

[BobG]

I agree, at least when the words are reasonably contemporaneous. I suggest also, however, that association is the fundamental reason smear campaigns work. So then if you take for granted 'the other things she said' are, say, hysterical (?), then what do you have in mind? The 1996 MTV lust and masturbation comment you posted up thread? <shrug> Apparently she was a Roman Catholic (then?), so I wouldn't call agreement with the http://www.vatican.va/archive/ccc_css/archive/catechism/p3s2c2a6.htm#2352" by an RC hysterical, even if the statement was in my view simplistic.

First off, that post was meant as humor. I even find some of Joe Biden's gaffes hilarious.

Second, if I had meant that as a serious comment, being Catholic doesn't make her delusional. However, while I may have a good opinion of the Catholic church overall, I don't believe that everything they teach is even healthy, let alone correct; nor would I become a Catholic for just those reasons.

Realistically, her feelings about masturbation are almost completely irrelevant politically since enforcing a law against masturbation would be impossible at this particular point in time even if she was proposing such a law instead of just expressing her personal opinion.

Her comment was different than Jimmy Carter admitting he'd committed adultery in his heart many times. Jimmy Carter's comment was probably more similar to Dolores Keane's comment that Irish women can gossip, even though it's considered sinful, because they ask forgiveness ahead of time. Carter's and Keane's comments both pointed out that human nature pretty much makes adhering to religious doctrine an impossible goal - Carter in a serious way and Keane in a humorous way.

O'Donnell was defending why something that was human nature was a sin, making her comment more similar to Bill Clinton firing his Surgeon General, Jocelyn Elders, for saying masturbation was a natural part of human sexuality. (In other words, while O'Donnell couldn't possibly pass a law banning masturbation, her beliefs could influence her political actions).

Edit: When I think about it, given the context of Elders's remarks, there was supreme irony in Clinton's later troubles.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Actually, if you take into context what O'Donnell said, it is even worse.

O'DONNELL: ... these groups admitted that the report that said, "Hey, yay, we cloned a monkey. Now we're using this to start cloning humans." We have to keep...

O'REILLY: Let them admit anything they want. But they won't do that here in the United States unless all craziness is going on.

O'DONNELL: They are — they are doing that here in the United States. American scientific companies are cross-breeding humans and animals and coming up with mice with fully functioning human brains. So they're already into this experiment...

mheslep, your assumptions about a smear campaign are false. The problem with people like O'Donnell is that they have no business running for office. I don't object to her politics nearly as much as I object to putting another bubblehead in the Senate.

I would have thought that Bush would have been enough to teach the right about not electing idiots. So what do they do, they jump behind Palin, and now O'Donnell. Who is on the outside? The Republican moderates and intellectuals - people like Powell, whom I do respect.

 

[nismaratwork]

Actually, if you take into context what O'Donnell said, it is even worse.



mheslep, your assumptions about a smear campaign are false. The problem with people like O'Donnell is that they have no business running for office. I don't object to her politics nearly as much as I object to putting another bubblehead in the Senate.

I would have thought that Bush would have been enough to teach the right about not electing idiots. So what do they do, they jump behind Palin, and now O'Donnell. Who is on the outside? The Republican moderates and intellectuals - people like Powell, whom I do respect.

Call me crazy, but I think she's more along the lines of a VICTIM of this kind of misinformation and lacks the wit to realize it. She acts like someone who's genuinely unaware of just how absurd her statements are, which as Ivan says, makes her all the less fit to run for office. Frankly, I wouldn't want her driving a bus... never mind legislating.

Sarah Palin... I don't know... too much media chaff around her to make a good judgment, but she seems just smart enough to want money while she can make it. I don't think she has any intention of running for anything and being held publicly accountable in a public office; she seems happy to make money and be influential within her little microcosm instead. That would seem to indicate enough wit be considered clever, but not enough to ever rehabilitate her public image as a ditz.

Ivan, I would add that Karl Rove initially seemed horrified by O'Donnell on Fox News, until 'recalled' by them and giving a generalized endorsement of any republican candidate. I think the right has created something they have very little control over, and if the Democrats had a firing neuron between them they could capitalize on it. Sadly, they don't...

 

[nismaratwork]

Keep it up Ivan, calling Tea Party folks crazy based on nothing but assertion is a main driver of their motivation.

And one of the main reasons for the collapse was the government.

How about calling them victims of hysteria and a particular resolution to cognitive dissonance? I would add, "irrational" and "crazy" are NOT the same thing... one can be sane, but not rational (emotional being another option)... crazy = slang for mental illness. You're literally putting words in Ivan's mouth.

 

[airborne18]

Actually, if you take into context what O'Donnell said, it is even worse.



mheslep, your assumptions about a smear campaign are false. The problem with people like O'Donnell is that they have no business running for office. I don't object to her politics nearly as much as I object to putting another bubblehead in the Senate.

I would have thought that Bush would have been enough to teach the right about not electing idiots. So what do they do, they jump behind Palin, and now O'Donnell. Who is on the outside? The Republican moderates and intellectuals - people like Powell, whom I do respect.

O'donnell is not the victim of a smear campaign. The 9/12 Patriots and O'donnell smeared the living crap out of Castle. And when he defended himself they then said he went negative.

The issues with O'Donnell are not smear, they are valid. This business about witchcraft is laughable, since it really is more of a joke that she can laugh off. That is not the issue with O'Donnell. She has not had a job since 2004. And she has been living off campaign donations since that time.

She has been running for the same Senate seat since 2006. Her whole point is not to win, but to make money off the tea partiers and get a job at fox.

Everything she says is a complete lie. She made a big deal about not doing anymore national press, and focusing on the local events, press, and issues.

Well she hides from the local press. All of them except a few far right radio stations. And she does not have any scheduled public events, nor does she even have a phone for her campaign office. ( yes she is a person of the people.).

Maybe they could get her on the issues, but she really never talks issues.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I had posted in the wrong thread. A bit of the discussion was moved to the tea party thread.
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?p=2899744#post2899744

 

[Ivan Seeking]

This is classic stuff - "I'm not a witch". Well, given the history of New England, I'll reserve judgement!

As Bill Maher said, when you have to start a political ad by stating that you're not a witch, your message has already failed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxJyPsmEask

 

[Gokul43201]

That ad reinforces my view that there exists a significant wing of the Tea Party that promotes this idea that elected government officials ought to be no more educated than the average citizen (who, by the way, does not have a college degree), and bring no more refined ideas to solving problems than the average Joe/Jane is likely to come up with.

 

[airborne18]

This is classic stuff - "I'm not a witch". Well, given the history of New England, I'll reserve judgement!

As Bill Maher said, when you have to start a political ad by stating that you're not a witch, your message has already failed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxJyPsmEask

Her message and campaign has succeeded beyond her wildest dreams. She has enough money to live on and has new career in commentating until she runs again.

She never expected to win against castle, and never expected to get all of this money from out of state. She won the lottery.

 

[mheslep]

That ad reinforces my view that there exists a significant wing of the Tea Party that promotes this idea that elected government officials ought to be no more educated than the average citizen

That's a dumb ad, an ill-thought out approach by O'donnell. Would you have a similar opinion if I posted similarly clueless ads/statements by candidates and sitting politicians in the Democratic party (e.g. island of Guam at risk of http://washingtonscene.thehill.com/in-the-know/36-news/3169-rep-hank-johnson-guam-could-tip-over-and-capsize" from overpopulation)?

(who, by the way, does not have a college degree),

Wrong link? Yes she does.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/41750.html

Scott Giglio, assistant director of public relations at the Madison, N.J., university, told POLITICO the Tea Party Express-backed Senate hopeful was officially awarded her bachelor of arts degree in English literature on Wednesday.

 

[Gokul43201]

That's a dumb ad, an ill-thought out approach by O'donnell.

I'm not criticizing the ad itself. And while I couldn't care less about the 'witch' part, I did find the rest of it more or less along the lines of her campaign speeches. This 'common sense' theme is not a one-time faux pas by O'Donnell; it's either an oft repeated principle with her, or is something she is being actively branded with by her supporters ... to the extent that she has now acquired the moniker of the "Common Sense Conservative".





http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20016841-503544.html...etc.

Would you have a similar opinion if I posted similarly clueless ads/statements by candidates and sitting politicians in the Democratic party (e.g. island of Guam at risk of http://washingtonscene.thehill.com/in-the-know/36-news/3169-rep-hank-johnson-guam-could-tip-over-and-capsize" from overpopulation)?

If it was part of a pattern like I've shown above and in previous posts, then yes, I'd have a similar opinion, to the extent that the pattern is similar. Besides, if you think I support Hank Johnson's re-election (not sure if he's running again) - mentally debilitating Hepatitis C or not - you'd be way off.

Wrong link? Yes she does.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/41750.html

Ugh! Have I become totally incomprehensible? I was referring to the education of "the average citizen", not O'Donnell.

 

[nismaratwork]

Her message and campaign has succeeded beyond her wildest dreams. She has enough money to live on and has new career in commentating until she runs again.

She never expected to win against castle, and never expected to get all of this money from out of state. She won the lottery.

Ah yes... I nearly forgot that was the real point of civil service these days.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

There was one line from a comedian that had me laughing out loud. It may have been Maher... ~ "When O'Donnell toyed with witchcraft over twenty years ago, she never thought it would actually work!"

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Another good one: Jack Cafferty, on CNN, asked viewers for questions to be asked of O'Donnell at the debate tonight.

Are you a good witch, or a bad witch?

 

[airborne18]

I actually had the chance to get a video taped question into that debate. But it involved getting my daughter at UofD to go and video tape it. They were at their deadline and my daughters engineering schedule was tight.

I called them last week because I felt nobody would ask a question relating to veterans. So they were going to let my kid do it.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Egad, I watched as much as I could stand. It was predictably embarrassing. O'Donnell was way out of her league.

 

[nismaratwork]

Egad, I watched as much as I could stand. It was predictably embarrassing. O'Donnell was way out of her league.

I hope beyond anything I can express that O'Donnel is a rare enough creature that she could never have league. Please god... please.