News Iranian Elections: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Wins by Landslide

[russ_watters]

Whatever the case as to the elections, those that collected the vote and counted it, must know that if the election of Ahmadi-Nejad is faked, that they are in serious trouble.

That, of course, assumes the votes were collected and counted. They couldn't possibly have manually counted the votes in the less than 24 hours before they announced the "official" results (much less the 1 hour that they first results): http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1904645_1904644_1904640,00.html

Besides that there were very unusual voting patterns, such as a very even victory margin across all geographic areas. Sounds to me like the leaders of Iran are so arrogant that they didn't even put much effort into trying to make the rigging believable.

[edit] So most of that was obsolete by now...

 

[rootX]

Besides that there were very unusual voting patterns, such as a very even victory margin across all geographic areas. Sounds to me like the leaders of Iran are so arrogant that they didn't even put much effort into trying to make the rigging believable.

I don't know what they are trying to do but looks like they just wanted trouble (considering endorsing the president). Either current environment was desired, or they are arrogant or plainly stupid (in that case a high school student can do a better job).

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I suspect that Ahmadinejad is discovering that there is a power far greater than the US - the internet.

 

[russ_watters]

Either current environment was desired, or they are arrogant or plainly stupid (in that case a high school student can do a better job).

I tend to think that arrogance is the predominant driver of despots and they can't even fathom the need to put any effort into something like this. They are probably shocked that their people aren't just rolling over and accepting their rule.

 

[russ_watters]

I suspect that Ahmadinejad is discovering that there is a power far greater than the US - the internet.

The most dangerous weapon in the world: the free flow of information.

 

[LowlyPion]

Reports are now that Kohemeni is allowing an inquiry into the election to proceed.

But that is simply absurd. What will they do? Say it was fraudulently reported? That Ahmadi-Nejad had fraudulently declared himself the victor? That would be jail or worse, I'd think. Are the Mullahs really ready to throw Ahmadi-Nejad under the bus? Or is the military already so entrenched in control that the Mullahs have no options, even if they wanted to?

I'd say there can only be one predetermined finding, that though there was minor inadvertent "adjustment"in tabulation the final results are not changed.

 

[MATLABdude]

Footage from the UK's Channel 4 of the protester shooting by the Bassij:
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1184614595?bctid=26415347001

However, you have to infer a fair bit as you can hear the shots fired, and then cut to the aftermath.

EDIT: Link from a Fark thread. Looks like just the one guard got a case of itchy trigger finger and started shooting into the crowd.

 

[Gokul43201]

An article by former Indian Ambassador M. K. Bhadrakumar, describes the election as a front for a behind-the-scenes power struggle between Rafsanjani and Khamenei.

This same idea is also explored in this article by Time Magazine today.

Ayatullah vs. Ayatullah: Could Ayatullah Khamenei Be Vulnerable?
...
Apart from the Iranian electorate, Khamenei has a couple of very important constituencies to deal with. Indeed, while most people describe Khamenei as the unelected leader of Iran, he was chosen by a small but critical institution, the Assembly of Experts. He must also deal with the Guardian Council, which is equally small but also influential — and must certify the election results. Some pundits are now arguing that the Assembly of Experts could find constitutional means to remove Iran's Supreme Leader and that a refusal by the Guardian Council to validate the election could throw the country into further crisis.

The main impetus for this speculation is the influence in both groups of Ayatullah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the last surviving powerful member of the revolution's founding fathers. Rafsanjani was a very loud critic of Ahmadinejad, and thus indirectly of the President's patron, the Supreme Leader.
...

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1904729,00.html

 

[mheslep]

I find http://www.irantracker.org/" is on top of the various issues. Its run by Fred Kagan et al, who was probably the man most directly responsible for the intellectual basis of the US troop surge in Iraq, in 2006 when things were darkest.

In particular, they have by-province vote count data from the Iranian Interior ministry here:
http://www.irantracker.org/analysis/iranian-2009-presidential-election-results-province

 

[math_04]

Well even if Hashemi Rafsanjani is the head of the Assembly of Experts, there are quite a few hardline conservatives within the group as well. Rafsanjani would need a broad agreement across the political spectrum if he is to unseat or even control Ali Khamenei. Plus Rafsanjani is unpopular amongst the Revolutionary Guards which represent another powerhouse in the establishment. They are strongly aligned with Ali Khamenei and strongly support Ahmadinejad's presidency. Remember how Ahmadinejad, the president with little real power, insulted and humilated the whole Rafsanjani family on state television. Ten years ago that would have been unthinkable, but it shows how the hardliners have cemented their position amongst the ruling elite in Iran.

 

[Hepth]

Those numbers are astounding.

in Mazandaran : nearly 2 MILLION people, and 99.43% voted. Thats just crazy. I didn't know that many people cared about the election in ANY country. Unless they were solicited door to door or something.

Or inflated...

 

[Cyrus]

Here are some recent pictures:
http://twitpic.com/photos/madyar


Warning: The above link shows images of dead/dying people which some may find disturbing. -- cristo

Holy cow look at those photos. So many people on the streets!

Great link!

(This is the best kind of uprising. Unlike President Bozo the clown (Bush) wanting to Invade Iran, this process came from within so it can't be deligitimized by the Iranians saying "Oh, this is just the Americans imposing their form of democracy" like in Iraq).

 

[Pyrrhus]

Wow, good luck to Iran. I mean Persia.

 

[Office_Shredder]

Ah, the most time honored tradition of a modern democracy

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/16/iran.elections.protests/index.html"

This is a perfect opportunity for Obama to spread the American ideal of settling elections in court

 

[math_04]

The whole recount is a sham, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will continue to be president of Iran. Ayatollah Khamenei, the hardliners and the Council of Guardians will ensure that the incumbent still wins. They cannot suddenly just say,yes Mousavi won and we were wrong all along. Not the way a theocratic dictatorship works.

And reading the latest news, Ahmadinejad is already in Moscow and up to his usual tirades against the West.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g6SjlVyVSwFpQUCdA_cVbU_UiACQD98RN7F00

 

[Astronuc]

I happened upon a website[1] that makes a pretty compelling case for fraud, if you accept the authenticity of its source data. It says that partial results announced during all stages of counting maintained a constant ratio of Ahmadinejad votes : Mousavi votes.

It seems rather blatant.

I don't know what they are trying to do but looks like they just wanted trouble (considering endorsing the president). Either current environment was desired, or they are arrogant or plainly stupid (in that case a high school student can do a better job).

Or both. If the evidence in Gokul's post is true, and it appears that someone just used a linear fit to determine that Ahmadinejad had at least twice as many votes as Mousavi.

It appears that Khameini was premature in declaring Ahmadinejad the winner.

But in a rare break from a long history of cautious moves, he rushed to bless President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for winning the election, calling on Iranians to line up behind the incumbent even before the standard three days required to certify the results had passed.

. . . .

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/world/middleeast/16cleric.html

Defiance Grows as Iran’s Leader Sets Vote Review
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/world/middleeast/16iran.html

TEHRAN — Hundreds of thousands of people marched in silence through central Tehran on Monday to protest Iran’s disputed presidential election in an extraordinary show of defiance from a broad cross section of society, even as the nation’s supreme leader called for a formal review of results he had endorsed two days earlier.

Having mustered the largest antigovernment demonstrations since the 1979 revolution, and defying an official ban, protesters began to sense the prospect — however slight at the moment — that the leadership’s firm backing of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had wavered.

The massive outpouring was mostly peaceful. But violence erupted after dark when protesters surrounded and attempted to set fire to the headquarters of the Basij volunteer militia, which is associated with the Revolutionary Guards, according to news agency reports. At least one man was killed, and several others were injured in that confrontation.
. . . .

Even if Ahmadinejad were declared winner by a smaller margin, there appears to be a strong shift in Iran away from the belligerence of Ahmadinejad. Perhaps the silent majority won't be so silent.

 

[Lisa!]

I suspect that Ahmadinejad is discovering that there is a power far greater than the US - the internet.

The internet speed gets really slow here most of the time after the election!

 

[Gokul43201]

Hi Lisa! Good to hear from you. If you are willing, could you give us your perspective on the situation over the last few days?

 

[LowlyPion]

I see that McCain has popped in with his attempt at Manichean analysis.

McCain, interviewed on NBC’s “Today” show, said the United States should support the Iranian people “in their struggle against an oppressive, repressive regime.” He said Iran “should not be subjected to four more years of [President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad and the radical Muslim clerics.”

Unfortunately for McCain I think it shows a shallow grasp of the realities there. The election regardless of who would win apparently doesn't effect the rule of the Muslim clerics. The group more potentially at risk seems to be the Revolutionary Guard, the military, whom Ahmadi-Nejad seems to serve with the consent of the Supreme Leader Kohemeni. I'm puzzled as to why McCain feels compelled to criticize Obama's measured response, to what is an internal situation, that I see no great advantage to the US inflaming further, and as a practical matter would be something that we cannot support in any meaningful material way, without turning the whole Muslim world against us.

With militia busting through the student dorms indiscriminately and other reports of state sponsored counter-agitprop, the entire society looks to be turned on edge. Democracy has a determined way of breaking out despite repression. The best course must be for us to wait and see what can be done, before rushing to the barricades of this battle. Regardless of this outcome, surely there is a longer road we must not poison.

And here McCain was the one that was supposed to at least have offered more foreign policy experience.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The internet speed gets really slow here most of the time after the election!

Yes, I saw that in some reports on the internet, including yours.

 

[qsa]

The whole recount is a sham, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will continue to be president of Iran. Ayatollah Khamenei, the hardliners and the Council of Guardians will ensure that the incumbent still wins. They cannot suddenly just say,yes Mousavi won and we were wrong all along. Not the way a theocratic dictatorship works.

And reading the latest news, Ahmadinejad is already in Moscow and up to his usual tirades against the West.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g6SjlVyVSwFpQUCdA_cVbU_UiACQD98RN7F00

Ahmadinejad is the winner; he represents the poor and normal working families. He was originally got elected based on his anti-establishment agenda i.e. corruption. He has made a lot of enemies at home and abroad because of the fundamental principals, power-justice to the people (everywhere) and independence from the supper-powers(the ideals of iranian revelotion).

 

[rootX]

Please keep American politics (Obama, McCain, Bush) out of this thread. I think else this will turn into another ugly American politics thread...

 

[LowlyPion]

I suspect that Ahmadinejad is discovering that there is a power far greater than the US - the internet.

From the dorm room attack:

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Ahmadinejad is the winner;

How did they count the votes so quickly. That isn't possible.

 

[Gokul43201]

From LP's post, according to McCain: the United States should support the Iranian people “in their struggle against an oppressive, repressive regime.”

Virtually every Iran expert I've heard weigh in on this has said nearly the exact opposite: that the US should try to stay detatched for as long as possible. Marrying Moussavi to the evil US may be all Ahmadinejad needs to quiet the dissent that's boiling over now.

And I bring this up, not to delve into local US politics, but rather to weigh in with my opinion on the effect of possible US actions on the situation in Iran.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Tonight: Was the election rigged?

120% say no.

- Colbert Report [comedy]

 

[math_04]

Anyway, Mousavi is not exactly an angel either. He was responsible for ordering the deaths of thousands of Iranians who protested against the absolute theocratic rule of Ayatollah Khomeini during the early 1980s. He strongly believes in the rule of the clerics, strongly favors continuing the nuclear program etc. I guess it is just choosing the lesser of the two evils, the real reformists were not allowed to even contest the presidential elections by the Guardian Council.

 

[Gokul43201]

Anyway, Mousavi is not exactly an angel either. He was responsible for ordering the deaths of thousands of Iranians who protested against the absolute theocratic rule of Ayatollah Khomeini during the early 1980s. He strongly believes in the rule of the clerics, strongly favors continuing the nuclear program etc. I guess it is just choosing the lesser of the two evils, the real reformists were not allowed to even contest the presidential elections by the Guardian Council.

More about this in the article I cited in an earlier post:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF16Ak05.html

...
Who is Mir Hossein Mousavi, Ahmedinejad's main opponent in the election? He is an enigma wrapped in mystery. He impressed the Iranian youth and the urban middle class as a reformer and a modernist. Yet, as Iran's prime minister during 1981-89, Mousavi was an unvarnished hardliner. Evidently, what we have seen during his high-tech campaign is a vastly different Mousavi, as if he meticulously deconstructed and then reassembled himself.

This was what Mousavi had to say in a 1981 interview about the 444-day hostage crisis when young Iranian revolutionaries kept American diplomats in custody: "It was the beginning of the second stage of our revolution. It was after this that we discovered our true Islamic identity. After this we felt the sense that we could look Western policy in the eye and analyze it the way they had been evaluating us for many years."

Most likely, he had a hand in the creation of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Ali Akbar Mohtashami, Hezbollah's patron saint, served as his interior minister. He was involved in the Iran-Contra deal in 1985, which was a trade-off with the Ronald Reagan administration whereby the US would supply arms to Iran and as quid pro quo Tehran would facilitate the release of the Hezbollah-held American hostages in Beirut. The irony is, Mousavi was the very anti-thesis of Rafsanjani and one of the first things the latter did in 1989 after taking over as president was to show Mousavi the door. Rafsanjani had no time for Mousavi's anti-"Westernism" or his visceral dislike of the market.
...

There's probably also some more background on Mousavi in the irantracker site that mheslep linked to earlier.

 

[LowlyPion]

I have to admit that I think the BBC seems to offer a bit better coverage on Iran than the US networks.

Perhaps its fewer axes to grind, or maybe just not so anxious to sensationalize it? It's sensational as it is for goodness sakes, and they just seem to get the news out without trying so hard to goose ratings.

But whatever the reason, I think their coverage is more measured and likely more thorough than some of the Twitter and Facebook and Skype feeds that some of the others are running with.

 

[Cyrus]

More about this in the article I cited in an earlier post:

There's probably also some more background on Mousavi in the irantracker site that mheslep linked to earlier.

Thanks for that link. I honestly don't know enough about him, but I doubt he's any different that Ahmedinijad. He probably doesn't make outrageous statements, but policy wise he's probably no different.