News Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

[mheslep]

No, that is not correct. A correct statement would have another condition: "Russian trade with third parties would not increase". This condition is manifestly and not hypothetically false, Russia's increasing trade with third parties is well documented, for example:

http://english.cntv.cn/2014/08/20/VIDE1408533605516635.shtml

To say nothing of the recent Sino-Russian gas deal, and the waves of joy spreading through Latin America.

Which is why I think your "crash and burn" conjecture is utterly surreal. You would have to tone it down quite a bit.

If the European pipelines are cut off, there is no where else for the Russian gas to go, not for years.

 

[voko]

Facts show that today Russia is very dependent on trade with the West

I disagree with your conclusions, not the facts.

 

[Astronuc]

Russia is apparently providing a limited gas supply to China.

http://acdemocracy.org/russia-the-geopolitics-of-natural-gas-2/#prettyPhoto

http://www.talkradionews.com/world-news/2014/05/20/russia-china-negotiate-terms-major-natural-gas-deal.html#.VAc9pXkg-po

More pipelines are planned.

http://rt.com/business/184176-russia-china-gas-siberian-power/

Back in May.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...n-gas-deal-as-ukraine-speeds-china-pivot.html

. . . .
Japan now consumes a third of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, and purchased 10 percent of its supplies from Russia's east, which lies on Japan's doorstep.

Oil imports from Russia rose almost 45 percent in 2013 and accounted for about 7 percent of supplies to the world's fourth-biggest crude importer.
. . . .

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/uk-ukraine-crisis-japan-idUKBREA230TK20140304

 

[Czcibor]

Russia is apparently providing a limited gas supply to China.

I expressed it unclear - the gas that they provide to Europe goes with one pipe system, the gas to China with other. In consequence there is impossible to redirect that gas immediately, one would have to connect them first.

 

[mheslep]

Russia is apparently providing a limited gas supply to China.

http://acdemocracy.org/russia-the-geopolitics-of-natural-gas-2/#prettyPhoto

http://www.talkradionews.com/world-news/2014/05/20/russia-china-negotiate-terms-major-natural-gas-deal.html#.VAc9pXkg-po

More pipelines are planned.

http://rt.com/business/184176-russia-china-gas-siberian-power/

Back in May.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...n-gas-deal-as-ukraine-speeds-china-pivot.html


http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/uk-ukraine-crisis-japan-idUKBREA230TK20140304

Present tense, Russian gas exports to China are insignificant for Russia. Again, if the Russian gas exports to the EU are cut off both parties will be severely hurt. Gas is not crude. NG can't cheaply flow out through nearest marine terminal and a tanker bound for the highest bidder.

With regard to Russian-Chinese future arrangements, the recently announced multi billion dollar gas deal is appearing more and more like a show for Putin's benefit. Too many details missing, the usual follow ups not falling in place. Certainly the Chinese could use the gas, but I suspect neither do they want to fall into the same major supplier trap (who wrestles bears) as have the Ukranians, Europe.

 

[lisab]

I think one thing we can all agree on is this is a polarizing topic.

Please remember to stay on topic, and be understanding and courteous. If you can't do these things, please reconsider posting.

 

[Czcibor]

Looks like Russian wanted to show Estonians, after Obama visit, that they do not treat western guarantees seriously and to prove their point raided Estonian border and kidnaped one Estonian counter-intelligence officer.

http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/35518/

Honestly? Something has to be done about this impunity.

 

[mheslep]

Looks like Russian wanted to show Estonians, after Obama visit, that they do not treat western guarantees seriously and to prove their point raided Estonian border and kidnaped one Estonian counter-intelligence officer.

http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/35518/

Honestly? Something has to be done about this impunity.

I think this event is very important as an illustration. NATO jet fly overs, troop exercises, and visits by the US President in Estonia are not particularly relevant. Putin is not going to roll tanks into Estonia. Should his gaze turn to that way, he'll likely do what he has already done: run convert, guerrilla, and insurgency operations. Personally threaten Baltic politicians and journalists. Wreck elections. The only way to effectively counter is to run operations against Russia, inside Russia. NATO is not going to do that, not with Obama at the head.

 

[lisab]

I think this event is very important as an illustration. NATO jet fly overs, troop exercises, and visits by the US President in Estonia are not particularly relevant. Putin is not going to roll tanks into Estonia. Should his gaze turn to that way, he'll likely do what he has already done: run convert, guerrilla, and insurgency operations. Personally threaten Baltic politicians and journalists. Wreck elections. The only way to effectively counter is to run operations against Russia, inside Russia. NATO is not going to do that, not with Obama at the head.

Or so he wants you to think .

 

[Czcibor]

I think this event is very important as an illustration. NATO jet fly overs, troop exercises, and visits by the US President in Estonia are not particularly relevant. Putin is not going to roll tanks into Estonia. Should his gaze turn to that way, he'll likely do what he has already done: run convert, guerrilla, and insurgency operations. Personally threaten Baltic politicians and journalists. Wreck elections. The only way to effectively counter is to run operations against Russia, inside Russia. NATO is not going to do that, not with Obama at the head.

I'm not above answering with sending paid thugs, for being hit with paid thugs, however Russian are simply better at it. Human life is much more expendable for them and they have proper kingpin at their lead.

If I had to answer I see plenty stuff that can be done, while not being military. I would force them in economic game, where they are simply weak. I'd think about total economic blockade in some areas. For example - banking system, as it was done with Iran. Or just ban any airline connection between civilized world and Russia. Or just Lithuania and Poland should ban any crossing of border, while the West should impose heavy fees on any commercial ship that would sail to a Russian port and would afterwards try to go to Europe. (good luck with transporting stuff to Kaliningrad)

 

[mheslep]

While the western block might embargo Russia and cause some economic damage, I don't think there is the slightest chance of enacting a global economic embargo. See the recent Russian agreement with China, or the fact that not even Ukraine has cut off the Russian gas. Russia is geographically enormous, is a UN Security Council member.

It may be that the best covert operation to run against Russia is to simply contact and support others inside who want to cut loose; quite a threat to country that imagines itself an empire across nine time zones. No need to send thugs with plenty already inside.

 

[Czcibor]

While the western block might embargo Russia and cause some economic damage, I don't think there is the slightest chance of enacting a global economic embargo. See the recent Russian agreement with China, or the fact that not even Ukraine has cut off the Russian gas. Russia is geographically enormous, is a UN Security Council member.

It may be that the best covert operation to run against Russia is to simply contact and support others inside who want to cut loose; quite a threat to country that imagines itself an empire across nine time zones. No need to send thugs with plenty already inside.

Is a UN Security Council member? Good point. Can't they have their US visas cancelled? :D

I'd say that Ukraine haven't cut the gas supplies not to annoy the West.

I'm not sure who exactly you'd like to support. Of course there are Chechens that unsuccesfully fought for their independence (regretably my gov haven't officially recognized them when there was a chance for that), but nowadays they are effectively subdued.

Maybe aid for Belarus/Kazakhstan? Just to undermine whole Euroasiatic Union. Not necessary aid as such, but just an offer to such countries that would have to be overbid by Russia.

Honestly speaking I don't see recent deal with China as a threat. It seems that it was an expensive polical demonstration for Russia, nothing more. Of course China would help them, while demanding high price for that.

We don't need "whole world" support, just the Western sanctions on its own may be quite painful, to show that invasions are quite expensive.

 

[Frank Merton]

It is true, sadly, that embargoes are never fully efficient. In my opinion, however, they should always be tried. They do seem to have some effect in some places.

I see Putin as a step back in Russia's progress, and as such his legacy will end up being that of someone who harmed Russia and the world. When he is gone we can hope the progress will resume.

 

[mheslep]

...

I'd say that Ukraine haven't cut the gas supplies not to annoy the West.

I do not mean the gas traveling *through* Ukraine, I mean Ukrainian local consumption of Russian gas. Ukrainian consumption 53 bcm, domestic production 36%, net imports 64%. At one point early this year Ukraine bought all of its imports from Russia.

I'm not sure who exactly you'd like to support.

Off the top of my head one could go with ethnic groups, e.g. Bashkirs, Chuvashs, Armenians, Avars, Mordvins, Kazakhs, Azerbaijanis, Dargins; or go political, e.g. political opponents of Putin.

Of course there are Chechens that unsuccessfully fought for their independence (regretably my gov haven't officially recognized them when there was a chance for that), but nowadays they are effectively subdued.

Not on my list, nevertheless, see how subdued they remain with western arms and money.

Honestly speaking I don't see recent deal with China as a threat. It seems that it was an expensive political demonstration for Russia, nothing more. Of course China would help them, while demanding high price for that.

Not a threat, but an illustration that some global call for a Russian embargo would go nowhere with the Chinese

We don't need "whole world" support, just the Western sanctions on its own may be quite painful, to show that invasions are quite expensive.

Against even a vaguely democratic, pluralistic society, sure. Against a will to power, a desire to dominate the world structure, not so much. With the latter, watching the limited Russian invasion force be cut to pieces by a Ukrainian army well supplied with western arms might have been viewed as "expensive" to the invaders. Remains to be seen which way Russia falls.

 

[mheslep]

...I see Putin as a step back in Russia's progress, and as such his legacy will end up being that of someone who harmed Russia and the world. When he is gone we can hope the progress will resume.

The US President has made very similar statements along the line of Russia has hurt itself, missed "off ramps", etc. Yet Crimea now hands out Russian passports, and soon apparently so will eastern Ukraine. I don't think the Ukrainians can tolerate any more of Putin doing damage to his legacy.

 

[Frank Merton]

The US President has made very similar statements along the line of Russia has hurt itself, missed "off ramps", etc. Yet Crimea now hands out Russian passports, and soon apparently so will eastern Ukraine. I don't think the Ukrainians can tolerate any more of Putin doing damage to his legacy.

I see your point. I still think long-term Russia is missing out, and not only Putin's legacy but Russia's role in history and of course its economy will suffer more from all this than it might gain in unruly territory.

 

[Czcibor]

I do not mean the gas traveling *through* Ukraine, I mean Ukrainian local consumption of Russian gas. Ukrainian consumption 53 bcm, domestic production 36%, net imports 64%. At one point early this year Ukraine bought all of its imports from Russia.

At that time they had bargain price from the times, when Putin was trying to save his puppet. At this moment they are using the one stored and buying from Slovakia. (not guessing where Slovaks get their ;) )

Off the top of my head one could go with ethnic groups, e.g. Bashkirs, Chuvashs, Armenians, Avars, Mordvins, Kazakhs, Azerbaijanis, Dargins; or go political, e.g. political opponents of Putin.

You need a while to actually build structures of any resistance movement. See Putin's case. He had more time and failed that on Ukraine, and instead had mostly relied on his own troops, just with new insignia.

For arguments sake. Let's assume that you would make a minor insurgency in Caucasus. Would they be left to be slaughtered after the war, as were people who rebelled against Hussein during the desert storm?

Not a threat, but an illustration that some global call for a Russian embargo would go nowhere with the Chinese

Yes, I know that. However Chinese haggling would be the second best thing that you can get after an embargo.

Against even a vaguely democratic, pluralistic society, sure. Against a will to power, a desire to dominate the world structure, not so much. With the latter, watching the limited Russian invasion force be cut to pieces by a Ukrainian army well supplied with western arms might have been viewed as "expensive" to the invaders. Remains to be seen which way Russia falls.

I think also about arming Ukrainians, however their problem is that their country is in a mess. They had relied on poorly trained, volunteer units recruited at Maidan because they operated anyway better than regular army. Some shipments would help, but you would not make an organized, effective army out of them overnight.

Damn, if I knew that the US are seriously backing us, I'd say just to send there some Polish units. (Of course for holidays, but I'd allow them to take their fighter jets)

 

[mheslep]

I see your point. ... Russia ... Putin's... Russia's role in history ...its economy ... it might gain ...

I don't think so. My point of focus is *Ukraine* and similar countries under threat, *not* Russia. I don't care about Putin's legacy. I want Ukraine, the Baltic states and other eastern European and Asian countries on the front page so that they are not forgotten.

 

[Frank Merton]

I don't think so. My point of focus is *Ukraine* and similar countries under threat, *not* Russia. I don't care Putin's legacy. I want Ukraine, the Baltic states and other eastern European and Asian countries on the front page so that they are not forgotten.

I see. We are all in the same world and Ukraine will have to deal with Russia on many issues. What happens in Russia is important, and it think it is useful to try to get them to understand the mistake they are making.

 

[m k]

What military hardware eastern Ukraine make?

 

[Evo]

Off topic posts will be deleted.

 

[Dotini]

Back on topic, a peace is agreed by the Ukraine parliament. Rebels get autonomy and amnesty, while the EU gets a free trade agreement, albeit postponed until 2016.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29220885#

 

[caveman1917]

Back on topic, a peace is agreed by the Ukraine parliament. Rebels get autonomy and amnesty, while the EU gets a free trade agreement, albeit postponed until 2016.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29220885#

Strictly speaking a peace proposal, it still has to be accepted by the rebels. I think they stated earlier that any peace deal that required them to give up their weapons and leave themselves open to attack would be unacceptable. The continued shelling of Donetsk city by Ukrainian forces throughout the ceasefire has probably not increased their confidence in laying down their weapons either.

 

[mheslep]

Back on topic, a peace is agreed by the Ukraine parliament. Rebels get autonomy and amnesty, while the EU gets a free trade agreement, albeit postponed until 2016.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29220885#

"Peace" is certainly not the right word. A ceasefire between Russian and western Ukraine may be imminent, but then begins the harassment of those who sympathize with Ukraine and remain in the east. Don't expect much press coverage of their plight.

 

[caveman1917]

"Peace" is certainly not the right word. A ceasefire between Russian and western Ukraine may be imminent, but then begins the harassment of those who sympathize with Ukraine and remain in the east. Don't expect much press coverage of their plight.

As well as the harassment of those who sympathize with the east but remain in the west. Certainly don't expect much press coverage of their plight either, especially since the crackdown on press freedom in the west. Still, if I had to choose between a somewhat autocratic regime and one whose military commanders are openly calling for "a crusade against the Untermenschen", my choice would be clear.

 

[caveman1917]

Certainly the Chinese could use the gas, but I suspect neither do they want to fall into the same major supplier trap (who wrestles bears) as have the Ukranians, Europe.

They haven't. There is no transit country that doesn't pay for its gas and starts siphoning of transit gas when cut off.

 

[mheslep]

They haven't. There is no transit country that doesn't pay for its gas and starts siphoning of transit gas when cut off.

They, which? The Chinese are not dependent on Russian gas. Ukraine is. Much of Europe is. North sea gas is the alternative and is insufficient to replace Russian. There is no other major connection to Europe.

 

[lisab]

Oy.

Y'all need a cooling off period.

 

[lisab]

This is a very important topic, and I really want to discuss it here. However we need to stay on topic. Several posts in this thread have been removed already, so please stay focused.

Also, be aware of the difference between your opinion and facts. If you are stating your opinion, identify it as such.

 

[Czcibor]

In the recent seriously moderate part of discussion there was one interesting fact:
Russia officially demanded (now, after 23 years!) from Lithuania help to prosecute Lithuanians who dodged Soviet draft just after Lithuania declared independence.
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-29111188

Russian masses seems to be convinced that everything is the West fault:
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2014/09/292014-levada-poll-decline-in-russian.html

It's presumably not a news, but increase in negative attitude concerning Russians was measured a few months ago by Pew Research:
http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/07/09/russias-global-image-negative-amid-crisis-in-ukraine/

If you want to have fun, you may also see that Russian are convinced that their creeping invasion against Ukraine is actually supposed to improve opinion about them around the world:
http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/05/08...cession/#few-see-crisis-hurting-russias-image
(there is also a chilling question there in which Russian masses answer whether they think that parts of nearby countries belong to them)

Russia is cutting down amount of gas supplied to the West to stop it from providing Ukraine:
http://online.wsj.com/articles/russia-halves-natural-gas-supplies-to-slovakia-1412177795
(So far they stay within the minimum contracted amount so officially not much can be done about it)To explain the feeling in Poland I'd show recent info concerning a suicide bomb attack in Grozny:
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20141005/193700067/Grozny-Explosion-Kills-5-Injures-12-Interior-Office.html
Comments in Poland (actually in a left-wing leaning newspaper) included in rough translation:
"Terrorist? Shouldn't we rather use Putin's terminology? It was a SEPARATIST"
"I'd even add: heroic insurgent fighting with fascist regime in Moscow... Down with Jewish neo-Vlasnovist"
(If you don't get the joke: in Russian propaganda there is a fascist regime in Kiev. It is being both accused of having oligarchs of Jewish origin (which is even technically speaking correct) and being neo-nazi, Bandera disciples. Vlasnov was a Soviet general that defected to Germans during WW2)
"Little Green Man, but a true one. Under the Green Banner"