News Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

[Czcibor]

It seems that slide of ruble continues. Seems like outcome of mixture of sanctions and decreasing oil prices, that convinces wealthy Russians to convert their savings into dollars and euro, in quantities that beat their central bank.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/ruble-slide-continues-1412922874

Opinion: So far Russian masses don't care at all about such technicalities. However, weak ruble also means serious inflation. So far not enough for them to correctly identify the culprit.

As I've seen a joke on a Polish forum. "Of course Russians trust Putin. But they trust Benjamin Franklin even more."

 

[lisab]

As I've seen a joke on a Polish forum. "Of course Russians trust Putin. But they trust Benjamin Franklin even more."

:D

 

[Nikitin]

hey Czcibor, why so mad and scared? Every part of your post is, literally, sensationalism and exaggerations typical of russophobes. As for the decline in the ruble; it's just how the market players try to reduce risk. When Big Oil decides western politicians have saved enough face, the sanctions will be lifted and the money will start flowing back into Russia just like it did in 2010, 2011,2012 and 2013. Until then true enough there will be problems with inflation, but the weak ruble is also helping the competitiveness of Russian industry.

 

[Czcibor]

hey Czcibor, why so mad and scared? Every part of your post is, literally, sensationalism and exaggerations typical of russophobes. As for the decline in the ruble; it's just how the market players try to reduce risk. When Big Oil decides western politicians have saved enough face, the sanctions will be lifted and the money will start flowing back into Russia just like it did in 2010, 2011,2012 and 2013. Until then true enough there will be problems with inflation, but the weak ruble is also helping the competitiveness of Russian industry.

Nikitin:
So you mean that when Russian mercenaries invade a nearby country your other neighbours shall not be "mad and scared"? (From purely power play politics which reaction would you expect? Are you also one of those Russians who believe that unprovoked invading nearby countries actually should improve their international immage?)

Every part of your post is, literally, sensationalism and exaggerations typical of russophobes.

Instead of making similarly blanket answer: "maybe because I'm too rarely watching Putin's controlled media", I'd ask for clarification, where I exactly exaggerated. Because I used here rather respectable sources: the last one were BBC, Pew Research and WSJ.

Or like sanctions concerning Cuba or Iran. Honestly speaking hard to say. For sure the western part of the EU was for long time giving Russia benefits of the doubt in case of other invasions (Moldova, Georgia, Chechenya). Recent aggression against Ukraine seem to exceed their tolerance threshold (Merkel cancelling contract and informing Putin that she has not time to meet with him), so the situation seem to lack good recent analogy. For sure new situation are unconventional sources of oil and gas which weakens somewhat Russian bargain position.

I really doubt Russian economic ills could be solved by just changing exchange rate (endemic corruption can not be removed this way). If you want to me to help you to use arguments for Putin - presumably such inflation hike actually makes his position not so bad, because he is the person who controls tap with petrodollars which would be worth more among slightly impoverished Russian masses.

 

[voko]

Russian mercenaries invade

You have failed to attach a respectable source to this claim. Try again.

 

[Czcibor]

You have failed to attach a respectable source to this claim. Try again.

Those info were already mentioned in this topic many times. Please pay more attention to that. Anyway, be more precise, which info you still lack and need some good source to finally be informed?

1) Did some "Little Green Men" appeared on East Ukraine, including Crimea?
2) Were they officially wearing Russian uniforms?
3) Were some of them already officially awarded by Putin?
4) Were the weapons that they had (including tanks and artillery) accessible in each Russian survival shop?

 

[voko]

Those info were already mentioned in this topic many times.

False. I hope you are genuinely mistaken, rather than intentionally spreading misinformation.

Anyway, be more precise, which info you still lack and need some good source to finally be informed?

I quoted three words from your previous message. They are in a dire need of a respectable source.

 

[Czcibor]

False. I hope you are genuinely mistaken, rather than intentionally spreading misinformation.

Have you seen here one interesting pattern? I mean the only people on this forum who are convinced that Russia is not doing an unprovoked invasion on Ukraine seem to be... Russians (I mean: you, Nikitin). Moreover you are not facing here disagreement concerning this conflict between Russian nationalists vs. Ukrainian nationalists, but actually facing people from unrelated third countries. How may it happen? Usual explanation involving world encompassing conspiracy, can be as always used when facing any inconvenient piece of information. However, maybe it is somewhat related very low freedom of media in Russia, so gov guarantees that local media show to people that what they should believe?
http://rsf.org/index2014/en-index2014.php

Or maybe as additional contributing factor typical national pride is involved, in which your fatherland by definition can not be guilty of anything?
(In this way you would be in respectable companion, including some Americans still believing in those stockpiles of WMDs in Iraq, Turkish convinced that nothing bad has happened to Armenian during WW1 or Japanese who perceive behaviour of their army towards civilians/POWs much better than the rest of the world)

I quoted three words from your previous message. They are in a dire need of a respectable source.

I asked you 4 question, to check which info you lack. You haven't answered me so I still don't know how I can help you.

Possibly the problem is that when Russia hires some armed guys who are officially not Russian army and sends them to conquer its neighbour you think it is impolite for me to refer them as mercenaries? And I shall use some more politically correct term for them?

 

[voko]

I mean the only people on this forum who are convinced that Russia is not doing an unprovoked invasion on Ukraine seem to be... Russians (I mean: you

Argumentum ad hominem, faulty generalization, and misinformation, all in one sentence. This is becoming a pattern in your messages, Czcibor.

I asked you 4 question, to check which info you lack.

I do not lack any info. It is your claims that lack substance. Asking questions, when asked to provide a source for your claims, is a sure sign of perfidy. Add to that an argumentum ad hominem and misinformation, cited above, and it becomes quite clear that your goal here is not a civilized discussion, but promotion of some very low quality agitprop.

 

[nikkkom]

Forget mercenaries.
Ukrainians captured soldiers from Russian regular army. There are tons of photos and videos, where they say in which regiment they serve. Such as this:

 

[Czcibor]

Forget mercenaries.
Ukrainians captured soldiers from Russian regular army. There are tons of photos and videos, where they say in which regiment they serve. Such as this:

I know. However, if Russians insist that they are not their troops and what even more important often don't wear proper insignia (which is required by Geneva convention to be considered as part of regular army) then I just refer them as mercenaries. If we take into account that Chechens fight on their side, then I consider this naming as quite proper. (However, I thought about different naming after they downed Malaysian airplane and had a minor assassination campaign against Ukrainian majors)More news:
Seem that Russian mercenaries effectively ambushed over 100 Ukrainian soldiers. (Looks like a quite good result for alleged cease fire)
http://www.daijiworld.com/news/news_disp.asp?n_id=270433
(that's the only English language source that I found; it's already on all Polish media; I'm waiting for some additional confirmation)

One Polish military officer was arrested accused of espionage. The country for which he was allegedly spying is not said officially...
http://wyborcza.pl/1,75478,16810938,Zatrzymany_polski_oficer__Szpiegowal_dla_Rosji_.html
(sorry, only Polish, seem not to be newsworthy for English language media, if you are really interested use google translate, but there are not many details made public so far)

Andrii Deshchytsia is new Ukraine ambassador in Poland.
(The former foreign affairs minister, famous of diffusing crowd of angry Ukrainians wanted to destroy Russian embassy for downing Ukrainian plane and killing 49 soldiers, and instead singed one song that "Putin is # # # #")
http://zhvaniya.com/en/article/14_10_13_deschitsu_naznachili_poslom_ukrainyi_v_polshe

 

[Czcibor]

Sweden is hunting for a Russian submarine on its territorial waters:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/19/sweden-search-russian-submarine-stockholm
Opinion: Putin is working hard to convince neutral countries like Sweden and Finland to join NATO. ;)

In Poland - officially confirmed that the alleged spies were spying for Russia (one military officer, one lawyer working in parliament) As usual in my country in case of secrets their names are unofficially already circulating. So if anyone is interested I may find their CVs.

Russia has detained one of activist who was publishing data concerning soldiers who died in action in Ukraine:
http://www.rferl.org/content/detention-bogatenkova-soldiers-mothers-russia-ukraine/26643664.html

 

[Czcibor]

1)On Polish websites people got excited by each tiny slide of Russian ruble and expending by Russian gov financial reserves on uphill battle. Because of clear trend readers can be kept excited each day. ;)

Seeing more seriously a bigger picture:
Reserves are seriously decreasing, as can be presented even in Russian official statistics:
http://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/default.aspx?Prtid=mrrf_m

Nothing devastating at all so far, (decrease by something like 10% from the start of the year, however the process started recently to accelerate in last moths, this month is going to be a record)2) Interesting data concerning oil:

2.1) Russia needs price of barrel somewhere around 104 USD/barrel to have balanced budget
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...russia-s-sanctions-pain-chart-of-the-day.html

2.2) The price now is around 82 USD/barrel (if you read my post later just look up the link to get up to date info)
http://www.oil-price.net/

2.3) Saudis seem to support US enough to allow to keep prices of oil low: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/e2fd08c6-554c-11e4-b750-00144feab7de.html#axzz3H2yOTHnU

2.4) It seems that is worth investing in shale oil if the oil price is above 80 USD/barrel
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-07/shale-boom-tested-as-sub-90-oil-threatens-u-s-drillers.html3) Russian debt downgraded to junk status
http://online.wsj.com/articles/russias-sovereign-debt-downgraded-by-moodys-1413580609
Maybe a bit excessive decision but the long run outlook is not optimistic.

Opinion: if we assume a linear model - I'd say Russia has a plenty of time for long stand off. However, in economics there is plenty of anticipation, herd behaviour and self fulfilling prophecies. There is somewhere a tipping point where everything collapses.

 

[Czcibor]

Interview with Chechen fighting on Ukrainian side:

I am fighting for Ukraine. I know what will happen to Ukraine if we fail to stop Russians. We’ve been fighting against Russia for 23 years, you can’t even imagine who have come to you. We are defending Ukraine here, we are defending the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria. We are not Islamic fundamentalists, not terrorists, we are Chechens.

Russians killed my wife’s father after he said he didn’t know where my family was. One of her brothers was blown up, the other disappeared. And I can’t say it’s too much because avery Chechen family suffers similar losses. That’s what Russians have done to us, and that’s what they are going to do with Ukraine and Ukrainians. That’s why the Chechen peacemaking battalion named after Dzhokhar Dudayev came to the holy land of Ukraine to defend our Ukrainian brothers.

What are they fighting for? To annex more territory? Does Russia really lack it? It just can’t get enough.

Full interview:
http://belsat.eu/en/articles/battalion-commander-munayev-russia-acts-upon-chechen-pattern-ukraine/

 

[Czcibor]

The most of votes (77%) is already counted, so it's presumably enough to draw first conclusions:

1) Parliament would be dominated by pro-West parties.
2) The only pro-Russian party, Opposition Bloc (former Party of Regions) got respectable 4th place and 9,61%. (30 out of effectively 423 seats)
3) Yulia Tymoschenko - 6th place- 5,67% - barely survived.
4) Communists for the first time did not enter the parliament.
5) The Right Sector, which is demonized by Russian propaganda as Nazis got 1,84% (one seat). I wondered what would Russians do with such image blow. The Russian paid trolls that infest Polish forums explained it to me - in their claims all pro-West parties are Nazis.

wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_parliamentary_election,_2014

The so high support for pro-West orientation is caused by two main factors:
-Russian creeping invasions, which makes pro-Russian stances somewhat hard to support;
-The regions that would normally tend to be pro-Russian are already under control of Russian mercenaries or regular Russian army and was not possible to hold election there.

Opinion: That whole Putin's invasion would be analysed as a case study just next to Bush invasion on Iraq.

Data for minor parties:
http://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Парлам....B7.D1.83.D0.BB.D1.8C.D1.82.D0.B0.D1.82.D0.B8

 

[nikkkom]

5) The Right Sector, which is demonized by Russian propaganda as Nazis got 1,84% (one seat).

No, it gets no seats. Any party which gets less than 5% is not getting any sets.

Meanwhile, another video of captured soldier of Russian Army. He explains in detail how the process of clandestine invasion works:

 

[mheslep]

At the G20:

Russian President Vladimir Putin got a blunt message when he approached Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper for a handshake at today’s Group of 20 summit in Brisbane, Australia.

“I guess I’ll shake your hand but I have only one thing to say to you: you need to get out of Ukraine,” Harper told Putin, the prime minister’s spokesman Jason MacDonald said in an e-mail.

My kind of statesmanship. Who let Putin in the door at the G20? G19 sounds better.

 

[Czcibor]

The so called "ceasefire" with Russian mercenaries cost lives of almost 1000 people.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...sefire-death-toll-united-nations-human-rights

Seems that "Cyborgs" defenders of Doneytsk airport would have the same place in Ukrainian national mythology, as had defenders of Staliningrad in Soviet national mythology:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29793696

Brent at 78 dollars per barrel. Russia tries desperately to agree with OPEC oil production cut, so far with no result:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/25/us-opec-meeting-idUSKCN0J90VC20141125

From good news for Russia seems that exchange rate somewhat stabilized around 45 rubles per dollar. (when in early 2014 Yanukvych was ovethrown it was something like 35 rubles per dollar)

 

[Czcibor]

From oil prices it seems that insiders already could guess how the OPEC summit would end:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-11-26/crude-falls-on-skepticism-before-meeting-opec-reality-check

However, as a person without such data I just mention that it end up with oil production cut:
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/world/article/opec-to-keep-production-ceiling-at-summit

Oil (Brent) price at $70.

I have to make a correction concerning ruble stabilizing. Not at all, today it reached a historical record - 50 rubles per dollar.

Well, as we joked in Poland during communism - there is a plan to introduce a fixed exchange rate between dollar, pound and ruble. One dollar would be worth one pound of rubles.

 

[nikkkom]

Separatists firing a MLRS

 

[mheslep]

Video shows the firing adjacent a residential complex to deter return fire or incur civilian casualties.

 

[nikkkom]

Night video from the trenches on the Ukrainian side. After about midway through the video, they come under 120mm mortar shelling.

 

[jtbell]

Russia cancels trains to Ukraine

Russia's railway authorities have announced the cancellation of all passenger rail services to Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan for 2015. [...] Passenger services between Russia and Belarus, Moldova and Uzbekistan will reportedly continue.

Those Russia - Moldova trains will be interesting. A glance at a map shows that they would have to traverse Belarus, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, in order to avoid Ukrainian territory. I doubt Ukraine would be keen on allowing closed Russian trains to pass through, similar to the "corridor trains" that connected West Berlin with West Germany during the days of the Wall.

 

[voko]

That misrepresents, to put this mildly, the original report by TASS: http://tass.ru/en/russia/765766

MOSCOW, December 8. /TASS/. Federal Passenger Company, a unit of Russian Railways, has canceled passenger trains to several CIS countries, including Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan from Sunday for a year due to a low profitability, a representative for the company told PRIME Monday.

So, not "Russia's railway authorities", but merely a train operator. That report was followed by another:

http://tass.ru/en/world/765988

KIEV, December 9. /TASS/. The Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) will keep all its former rail routes to Russia intact despite a decision made by Russian Federal Passenger Company to cancel rail service to Ukraine for a year's time as of December 14, 2014, a representative of the Ukrzaliznytsia's press service told TASS on Tuesday. "Ukrzaliznytsia will continue rail service in winter the way it does now," the spokesman said.

 

[Czcibor]

That misrepresents, to put this mildly, the original report by TASS: http://tass.ru/en/russia/765766
So, not "Russia's railway authorities", but merely a train operator. That report was followed by another:

http://tass.ru/en/world/765988

If you are playing so in technicalities, indeed not a "Russian gov", but "company in which Russian gov holds indirectly 100% shares". It is a huge difference and makes that company purely profit oriented entity, practically invulnerable to any political pressure. ;)Anyway, I consider Russian-Belarus renewing of custom control as interesting step on the way to Eurasian Union:
http://belarusdigest.com/story/belarus-reinstates-customs-control-border-russia-end-eurasian-union-20726

Opinion: It seems that for Mr Lukashenko there is only point in the whole Eurasian Union if he is allowed to make money on reselling European food. If Russia tries to clamp that he is just retaliating with reintroducing border control on Belarus-Russia border. Maybe Russia should ally with countries that are more developed and have better rule of law? Oh, yes such countries tended recently to impose sanctions after invasion on Ukraine, so Mr Lukashenko is one of few that are left as allies in the region. ;)

EDIT:

The grim joke in Moscow these days is that oil, the ruble and Putin are all headed for 63 next year.

That’s oil down to $63/barrel, the ruble plummeting to 63/dollar, and Putin turning 63 years old.

That joke was ruined today as the price of a barrel of benchmark Brent crude flew past $63 and is already around $62.59.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-63-important-number-days/story?id=27555676

It seems that I omitted the best news - one dollar costs 58 rubles.

EDIT2:
US Congress passed Ukraine Support Act.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_Support_Act_(H.R._4278;_113th_Congress)

There are some minor sanctions, money for radio, encouraging president to sell Ukrainians weapons and loan guarantees. Veiled threats against Gazprom if hit NATO or Ukraine/Moldovia/Georgia. Look nice, but not outstanding. However judging from hordes of Russian paid trolls commenting it on Polish websites, it seems that Russian are somewhat concerned.

 

[russ_watters]

Er, no: down is up for currency valuation, so the Rubble didn't get there yet.

 

[Danger]

There are tons of photos and videos, where they say in which regiment they serve. Such as this:

another video of captured soldier of Russian Army. He explains in detail how the process of clandestine invasion works:

Are there English translations of those available?

 

[Czcibor]

67,9 rubles for dollar, the today's record was somewhere around 78 or or 79. Anyway, whichever way you count it under such heavy swings ruble is worth less than 50% of its value a year ago.

Russian central bank raised today interest rates from 10,5% to 17% to boost ruble, it worked for a few hours.
http://www.businessinsider.com/rouble-strengthens-after-russian-central-bank-hikes-rates-2014-

Yesterday's rouble crash caused barely a ripple on Russia's primetime news last night, but today the battle to save the currency has been taking centre stage.

Bulletins on the three main channels on 15 December led with a health scare for a famous poet and the aftermath of the siege in Sydney. Official channel Rossiya 1 ignored the rouble completely, while state-controlled Channel One and Gazprom-Media's NTV both dedicated around a minute to the story - in NTV's case close to the end of the hour-long bulletin.

Channel One used a somewhat misleading screen graphic that understated the currency's collapse. It also warned that shops displaying prices in any other currency than the rouble could face stiff fines.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30492518

 

[Dotini]

What with sanctions and the halving in the price of oil, Russia's economy is reeling under a double-whammy. There was talk this morning on CNBC, the financial channel, of the potential for change in the leadership of Russia. Neocons have dreamed of this moment for years. Perhaps now really is the time to cinch the noose tight, and work openly to consummate a regime change there? Perhaps the incoming Congress will answer the siren call to arms? What could possibly go wrong?

 

[mheslep]

change in the leadership of Russia. Neocons have dreamed of this moment for years.

Why is it that only Neocons would enjoy a change of leadership in Russia?