DevilsAvocado said:
Really? Could you please provide the name of any other professional political analyst who back in 2008 knew that Russia was to invade Ukraine next, and who claims that the solution to all this is fracking in Alaska? And not wear 'Mom Jeans'??
No one said that in 2008 and no one is saying that now.
When NATO held a summit at Bucharest in April 2008, both the Ukraine and Georgia requested to be offered a Membership Action Plan to join the organization. The summit adjourned without offering such a plan to these two countries, instead promising to revisit the decision in December 2008.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Bucharest_summit
Putin made his move on Georgia in June, knowing that the UK, Germany and France opposed giving membership to Georgia and the Ukraine at the summit. Putin wanted things taken care of in Georgia quickly since the 2014 Olympics were scheduled to take place in nearby Sochi, and Russia was investing a staggering amount of money (over $50 billion and counting) to hold these games.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the Ukraine would then receive all sorts of attention from Russia, not the least because of access to the Black Sea for merchant and naval ships. Adding several hundred miles of territory to Russia's western border is an added bonus.
Given Obama's actions while president, pulling out of Afghanistan and Iraq, secretly negotiating with Iran, fumbling round with Egypt and Libya, and totally humiliated in handling Syria, Putin knew that he could expect no serious or credible threats from the US or NATO or Europe w.r.t. his actions in the Ukraine.
But Putin's actions are not without risks. Russia can't withstand the loss of revenue derived from energy sales to the west for very long if the pipelines running thru the Ukraine are damaged or destroyed. It's also not clear if the average Russian is eager to go to war over the Ukraine, given the experiences in Afghanistan in the 1980s and Chechnya more recently. Having been around for the fall of the USSR, Putin knows that things can go wrong quite quickly politically if circumstances align.
If Russia's energy customers are forced to go elsewhere to obtain their supplies, it might not be very easy to persuade them to come back after things have settled down. Russia is also dependent on the west for capital and technology to exploit its existing oil and gas deposits and to explore for more deposits.