News Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

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AI Thread Summary
The discussion highlights the chaotic situation in Ukraine, questioning who truly controls the protests and the government amidst escalating violence, particularly in Kiev. It notes the deep cultural and political divisions within Ukraine, with significant pro-Russian sentiments in the east and pro-European aspirations in the west. The conversation reflects on the lack of strong U.S. support for the protesters compared to past interventions during the Orange Revolution. Participants express skepticism about the motivations behind the protests, suggesting they may be influenced by foreign interests and local radicals. The overall sentiment is one of uncertainty regarding the future of Ukraine, with concerns about potential power struggles and external influences.
  • #401
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  • #402
DennisN said:
:thumbs: Thanks! I was looking for that address before, but I could not find it. Now I will watch it.

EDIT: I've now watched the entire speech. Again, it was a very, very talkative Putin. And a seemingly well prepared speech. He talked a lot about history, Crimea, Russia, USSR. He reiterated the historical ties between Russia and Crimea. Concerning international politics, he compared Crimea to what happened in Kosovo. To my ears, he gave a pretty ambiguous description of the development in Ukraine; he said he understood the worries and concerns of the Ukrainian people and the Euromaidan, but he did not approve of the way the events have turned out. He warned of Nazi and nationalist elements in Ukraine, and fears of ethnic cleansing.

Glad you found it interesting, I agree, if you want a fine analysis of the speech, I can recommend this:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ll-us-about-russia-crimea-and-vladimir-putin/


P.S: Thanks for the text link!
 
  • #403
russ_watters said:
The last made a couple if interesting points:

1. A similar referrendum was held in Crimea in 1991 and 54% voted to remain with Ukraine.
2. Austria held a referendum to vote in favor of German annexation too.

Yes, the article is very interesting.
 
  • #404
kith said:
But this isn't my main point here. In my original post #380 I said "hysterical - or warmongering".

kith said:
The part you quote was a response to Devil's Avocado who seemed to actually expect this in post #376 by talking of "another historic catastrophe".

To me, your logic seems a little bit 'peculiar'... you allow yourself to gather arguments through "one-eyed-cherry-picking", while at the same accusing others for being "hysterical warmongers"...

That doesn't work, does it?

With all due respect, if you characterize this as "warmongering", then the problem is probably not on my behalf:

[my emphasis]
DevilsAvocado said:
It's hard to avoid the 'parallels':

Code:
Dr Jekyll                 Mr Hyde
------------------------------------------------
"Historical mess"         "Historical mess"
Strong nationalism        Strong nationalism
2014 Olympics             1936 Olympics
2014 Crimea               1938 Sudetenland
?                      1939 Poland

Of course, one can never be sure on what's going on, and what the real plan are, but this has to be handle firmly, careful* and right to avoid another historical catastrophe...
*dictionary.reference.com
care•ful Spelled [kair-fuhl]
adjective
1. cautious in one's actions: Be careful when you cross the street.
2. taking pains in one's work; exact; thorough: a careful typist.
3. (of things) done or performed with accuracy or caution: careful research.
4. solicitously mindful (usually followed by of, about, or in ): careful of the rights of others; careful about one's behavior; careful in speech.
5. Archaic.
a. troubled.
b. attended with anxiety.


DevilsAvocado said:
The last thing any sane person on this globe wants is U.S. to engage in a military conflict with Russia. That would be the end of everything.

This is what you are talking about; dinosaur warmongering, dreaming about lost 'glorious days' [that will never return]:

Russia biggest war games 160,000 troops 130 planes 70 ships thousands tanks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xneZp5Ycm24
http://www.youtube.com/embed/xneZp5Ycm24

Putin and Lukashenko join forces against insurgency
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxX8SuUPC88
http://www.youtube.com/embed/JxX8SuUPC88

What insurgency? Ukraine??
 
  • #405
russ_watters said:
The point here is as much about the West's response to Hitler as it is Hitler's early actions. We had no way of knowing just how far he would go after annexing Austria in 1938 but we knew at the time that it was wrong, chose to do little in response and know now that that helped embolden Hitler to do more. The same pattern is emerging here, regardless of how far Putin ends-up going. He's already put on the table a justification for invading all of Ukraine, so that is not out of the realm of possibility.

Without doubt; the best combination of letters in this thread this far. :thumbs::thumbs:

Road to World War II Hitler, Mussolini, Chamberlain, Manchuria, Munich Pact
[Note: This video contains some war footage]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ojT_PAupY4
http://www.youtube.com/embed/9ojT_PAupY4
 
  • #406
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA2I0TR20140319 (Reuters, 19 March, 2014)
 
  • #407
DennisN said:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA2I0TR20140319 (Reuters, 19 March, 2014)

Gosh :bugeye: Wasn't there some sort of 'agreement' (until 21 of March)??
 
  • #408
DevilsAvocado said:
Gosh :bugeye: Wasn't there some sort of 'agreement' (until 21 of March)??
Good point! I actually forgot about that :rolleyes:. Things have happened so quickly the last couple of days.
EDIT: Yes, my post #312 was about a truce;

Ukraine, Russia agree Crimea truce until March 21 (Reuters);
Reuters said:
(Reuters) - The defense ministries of Ukraine and Russia have agreed on a truce in Crimea until March 21, Ukraine's acting defense minister said on Sunday.

"An agreement has been reached with (Russia's) Black Sea Fleet and the Russian Defense Ministry on a truce in Crimea until March 21," Ihor Tenyukh told journalists on the sidelines of a cabinet meeting.

"No measures will be taken against our military facilities in Crimea during that time. Our military sites are therefore proceeding with a replenishment of reserves."

(Reporting by Natalya Zinets, Writing by Ron Popeski; Editing by Richard Balmforth)
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/16/us-ukraine-crisis-truce-idUSBREA2F0DP20140316
 
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  • #409
DennisN said:
Good point! I actually forgot about that :rolleyes:. Things have happened so quickly the last couple of days.
EDIT: Yes, my post #312 was about a truce;

Ukraine, Russia agree Crimea truce until March 21 (Reuters);

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/16/us-ukraine-crisis-truce-idUSBREA2F0DP20140316

No worries mate, Putin apparently has a much worse memory... :bugeye:

(= he can't be trusted :mad:)
 
  • #410
DennisN said:
Russian forces storm Ukraine base

Officially these are "not" Russian forces, but the "Crimean self defense force", not controlled by Russia. Nice trick.

At least that's how it is reported here.
 
  • #411
If anybody in this thread is interested in economics rather than warfare, there was a comment in today's Financial Times newspaper: the USA could do significant damage to Russia's oil-based economy by running down its strategic petroleum reserves. The high level of the current US reserves does not reflect the fundamental shifts in the USA's oil industry that have resulted from to shale oil.

The FT analyst suggests that gradually reducing the US strategic reserves to their internationally agreed minimum level (60 to 90 days reserve supply) could lower the world oil price by $10 to $12 per barrel for a period of about two years, which would significantly dent the Russian economy.

By comparison, the alternative "threat" of exporting US LNG to Europe to replace Russian gas imports is just talk, since it would take several years to set up the infrastructure to implement it.
 
  • #412
Borek said:
Officially these are "not" Russian forces, but the "Crimean self defense force", not controlled by Russia. Nice trick.

At least that's how it is reported here.

Here is a slideshow with pictures from the events at the naval headquarters in Sevastopol, March 19, 2014 (24 pics, Reuters):

http://www.reuters.com/news/pictures/slideshow?articleId=USRTR3HPXG#a=1

Many names for many people: pro-Russian forces/supporters, Crimean self-defense units, Russian servicemen, Ukrainian servicemen...
 
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  • #413
Meanwhile, back at the Kremlin:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-russia-estonia-idUSBREA2I1J620140319

Estonia - the next domino to fall?
 
  • #414
AlephZero said:
By comparison, the alternative "threat" of exporting US LNG to Europe to replace Russian gas imports is just talk, since it would take several years to set up the infrastructure to implement it.
I hope the oil resources can be used as suggested, but so can gas.

The futures markets for natural gas run out ten years in the US and the EU, driven in Europe by utilities and industry across buying long term Russian gas contracts today, not several years from now. There are now some twenty-five applications into FERC and DoE for LNG export facilities. Approving many, or all, of them immediately would thus immediately depress the value of long term contracts and thus the value of Russian natural gas reserves, even if 5-6 years were required to ship the first US BTU's. Even if there were no immediate impact on Russian gas (and as I've shown there would be), I think the lesson drawn of current events for strategic purposes is to get moving now.

I don't know the full economic value of such action, but I expect it would be larger than placing banking sanctions on seven Russians who like to tweet.
 
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  • #415
Borek said:
Officially these are "not" Russian forces, but the "Crimean self defense force", not controlled by Russia. Nice trick.

Sigh... more "Putin Logic". He has declared to the whole world that he was forced to save Crimea from "unconstitutional thugs" and "neo-Nazis", and now when he has the power and responsibility, he allow/encourage "anonymous forces" and thugs to run down military stations as if it was the most natural thing in the world.

The man is a constitutional joke.
 
  • #416
AlephZero said:
If anybody in this thread is interested in economics rather than warfare, there was a comment in today's Financial Times newspaper: the USA could do significant damage to Russia's oil-based economy by running down its strategic petroleum reserves. The high level of the current US reserves does not reflect the fundamental shifts in the USA's oil industry that have resulted from to shale oil.

The FT analyst suggests that gradually reducing the US strategic reserves to their internationally agreed minimum level (60 to 90 days reserve supply) could lower the world oil price by $10 to $12 per barrel for a period of about two years, which would significantly dent the Russian economy.

Yay! Smart! This is how it should be done!

I think U.S. and EU has to deliver a full package of similar "Evil Things" right under the nose of Putin to make him crawl back to his dear gas station. Fast!
 
  • #417
SteamKing said:
Meanwhile, back at the Kremlin:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-russia-estonia-idUSBREA2I1J620140319

Estonia - the next domino to fall?

I am very disappointed on Mr. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, whom has acted very logical and responsible up till now. Does The Great 21th Century Tsar not understand that there are much more crucial "anonymous-land-grabbing" to be done elsewhere, as is clearly indicated on the Russian diaspora "Help Me!" list:

2nq5fdh.png


The only logical order of priority must be: Ukraine, Germany, Latvia and then Estonia & United Kingdom!


Edit - Note: strong irony warning

[If there is anything more to this than a rhetoric war of words – it's insane]
 
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  • #418
DevilsAvocado said:
I am very disappointed on Mr. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, whom has acted very logical and responsible up till now...
Responsible? No.
 
  • #419
mheslep said:
Responsible? No.

Sorry mheslep, my fault, I should have been clearer – strong irony warning in my post #419!


[I thought the bracket note would be enough...] :redface:
 
  • #420
There are either >200,000 Russians in Germany or 2 million: that's quite a few people hiding in the closet or under the bed. I'm surprised the Germans have let things get out of hand so, considering what happened the last time 2 million Russians were in Germany.
 
  • #421
SteamKing said:
There are either >200,000 Russians in Germany or 2 million: that's quite a few people hiding in the closet or under the bed. I'm surprised the Germans have let things get out of hand so, considering what happened the last time 2 million Russians were in Germany.

Yes, it looks strange. I checked the source at Statistisches Bundesamt (my German is terrible) and in the pdf Ausländische Bevölkerung (page 40) it says:
der ehemaligen Sowjetunion = 514 311

Gebiet der ehemaligen Sowjetunion:
Armenien, Aserbaidschan, Estland, Georgien, Kasachstan, Kirgisistan, Lettland, Litauen, Republik Moldau, Russische Föderation, Tadschikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Usbekistan, Weißrussland (Belarus) einschließlich Personen mit der Staatsangehörigkeit der ehemaligen Sowjetunion ohne nähere Angabe.


I don't know if it has anything to do with this... the numbers don't match anyway... or is it something in former DDR?
 
  • #422
DevilsAvocado said:
I don't know if it has anything to do with this... the numbers don't match anyway... or is it something in former DDR?

I don't think so. Even the Germans who used to live in the DDR moved west after Reunification, given the run-down state of the former DDR in terms of infrastructure and lack of jobs as state-owned enterprises were closed. What industry the Russians didn't strip from Germany and send east after the war was allowed to run down, and much war damage in cities like East Berlin went un-repaired. The West Germans have poured trillions of dollars into cleaning up and re-building East Germany, and the end of financial support is not yet in sight.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...s-to-a-halt-23-years-after-reunification.html
 
  • #423
So Russia is claiming that the armed people on the ground are not Russian solders but in fact just local people who support Russia? I can swear I have seen tanks and other armored vehicles (on my phone and too lazy to find a source ATM). Where do a bunch of local guys get assault rifles are armored vehicles to overthrow or overpower an established military presence. Are these Ukrainian soldiers who are defecting to the RF and stealing stuff? I watched a clip by a reporter who interviewed Ukrainians soldiers in Crimea and one commander informed him that about half of his men left the base to join the pro-Russian forces. See videos here: http://m.vice.com/vice-news/russian-roulette-the-invasion-of-ukraine-part-1 .

Another question I have is regarding the uncertainty about the military presence in the Ukraine. Are things like this (http://rt.com/news/usa-inspection-russia-skies-258/) and this (http://rt.com/news/ukraine-inspection-russia-troops-782/) even all that effective? Each piece mentions a prearranged route. So what's the point? Shouldn't people really be pressing the issue and determining who the hell is really on the ground with enough arms and organization to displace the established military (that is, Ukrainian) presence?
 
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  • #425
Czcibor said:
We're a scientific forum? :D Good, because I've found an analysis of recent conflict that tries to use game theory approach:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/03/game-theory-ukraine
tl;dr...
The normal rules for conflict and international relations don't apply to Putin because he's corrupt, a warmongering bully, and doesn't care.

That's largely what makes this situation so grave/dangerous.
 
  • #426
If anyone speak Polishs (or uses google translate :D) there is professional analysis done by Polish think tank, which effectively serves as open-source intelligence for my gov.

http://www.osw.waw.pl/pl/publikacje...zasowej-strategii-rosji-wobec-wschodu-ukrainy

Executive summary: Russians miscalculated by seriously overestimating their support. They expected mass demonstration in their support in whole eastern Ukraine, but immediately after Ukrainians started stopping hired trouble makers at borders, then whole protests practically extinguished. However, local people, inspired by Maidan (even when not enthusiastic about it), would actually seriously expect more decentralized political system.
 
  • #427
SteamKing said:
There are either >200,000 Russians in Germany or 2 million: that's quite a few people hiding in the closet or under the bed. I'm surprised the Germans have let things get out of hand so, considering what happened the last time 2 million Russians were in Germany.

My guess is that this varying number is due to the question of how to treat the so called "Spätaussiedler". After world war 2, Germany lost all territories east of the Oder-Neisse-line. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oder–Neisse_line). However, not all Germans left. Those who stayed (and their children of course) were still Germans and were still allowed to return to Germany and did so in moderate numbers over time.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union a lot of them took the opportunity and "returned" to Germany. However, many of these Spätaussiedler already grew up in the Soviet Union, knew no German anymore and were socialized in the Soviet Union. So they were neither really Germans nor really Russians. My guess is that the strongly varying number here reflects the question of how to treat them in terms of these statistics.
 
  • #428
Cthugha said:
My guess is that this varying number is due to the question of how to treat the so called "Spätaussiedler". After world war 2, Germany lost all territories east of the Oder-Neisse-line. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oder–Neisse_line). However, not all Germans left. Those who stayed (and their children of course) were still Germans and were still allowed to return to Germany and did so in moderate numbers over time.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union a lot of them took the opportunity and "returned" to Germany. However, many of these Spätaussiedler already grew up in the Soviet Union, knew no German anymore and were socialized in the Soviet Union. So they were neither really Germans nor really Russians. My guess is that the strongly varying number here reflects the question of how to treat them in terms of these statistics.
During communist in Poland we joked that people were desperately looking whether in family there was at least a German shepherd ;)

Yeah, in the most cases of people who emigrated they had already seriously diluted German blood. The threshold to be allowed to emigrate because of nostalgia for Vaterland was I think 1/8.
 
  • #429
Cthugha said:
My guess is that this varying number is due to the question of how to treat the so called "Spätaussiedler". After world war 2, Germany lost all territories east of the Oder-Neisse-line. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oder–Neisse_line). However, not all Germans left. Those who stayed (and their children of course) were still Germans and were still allowed to return to Germany and did so in moderate numbers over time.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union a lot of them took the opportunity and "returned" to Germany. However, many of these Spätaussiedler already grew up in the Soviet Union, knew no German anymore and were socialized in the Soviet Union. So they were neither really Germans nor really Russians. My guess is that the strongly varying number here reflects the question of how to treat them in terms of these statistics.

It's not clear how many Germans remained east of the O-N line after the war. When former German territory was turned over to Poland, when the Czech government returned to power, etc., large numbers of Germans were expelled from these areas, like Silesia and the Sudetenland, and forced to move into the occupied zones of Germany. It has been estimated that more than 12 million Germans were expelled from eastern Europe and resettled in Germany by 1950.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_of_Germans_after_World_War_II

Given the bitterness of the conflict, any Germans who remained in eastern Europe after the war did so at risk of life and limb.

Ethnic Germans who had immigrated to Russia much earlier, the Volga Germans, were eligible for a time to settle in Germany after the fall of the USSR, but that door has now been closed. Even though these people may no longer speak German or a German dialect, they are still ethnically German and it is unclear if they would be classified as Russian instead of German in a population study.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volga_Germans#The_20th_century
 
  • #430
SteamKing said:
I don't think so. Even the Germans who used to live in the DDR moved west after Reunification, given the run-down state of the former DDR in terms of infrastructure and lack of jobs as state-owned enterprises were closed.

Cthugha said:
My guess is that this varying number is due to the question of how to treat the so called "Spätaussiedler". After world war 2, Germany lost all territories east of the Oder-Neisse-line. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oder–Neisse_line). However, not all Germans left. Those who stayed (and their children of course) were still Germans and were still allowed to return to Germany and did so in moderate numbers over time.

Thanks guys, this seems to be a quite 'complicated matter'... from the pdf Bevölkerung mit Migrationshintergrund – Ergebnisse des Mikrozensus 2011 (page 8):

Most people with a migration background come from Turkey (18.5%), followed by Poland (9.2%), the Russian Federation (7.7%) and Italy (4.9%). Kazakhstan is at 5.8%, the only major non-European origin country. With 1.4 million most (late-)Aussiedler come from the successor states of the former Soviet Union – mainly from the Russian Federation (612,000) and Kazakhstan (575,000); beside it are Poland (579,000) and Romania (213,000) important countries of origin.​

7.7% ≈ 6,000,000 ... :bugeye:

And things start to get real 'multifaceted' in the Wikipedia article Russians in Germany:

[my bolding]
Russians in Germany said:
There is a significant Russian population in Germany. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 triggered mass immigration to the West, with Germany being the top destination, mostly for economic and ethnic reasons. Russians are the biggest migrant group in Germany, together with Turks.

There are about 3,500,000 native Russian speakers in Germany, split largely into three ethnic groups: ethnic Russians, Russians descended from German immigrants, and Russian Jews.

560,178 people in Germany were categorized as ethnic Russians in 2007. Their number is growing.

Between 1992 and 2007, a total of 1,797,084 ethnic Germans from the former USSR emigrated to Germany. [...] The number of non-German relatives who emigrated along with them is not known, but many if not most are presumably members of Germany's ethnic Russian community.

Most Russian-Germans have assimilated and integrated well into German society. As with most other immigrant groups, there remain some contemporary issues. German authorities have been concerned that the high number of Russian immigrants self-segregating in certain neighborhoods hinders social integration. This has led to restrictions on immigration from Russia and the former Soviet Union. Other issues have included crime, drugs, poverty and unemployment.

The Aussiedler have raised many issues. Although they were expected to assimilate rapidly into German society, Aussiedler and their descendants are struggling with their identity, and most consider themselves Russian. In Russia, due to outside pressure, they had become assimilated into Russian society, in most cases speaking Russian as their first or only language, and this has made their return difficult. Native Germans typically consider them Russian, just as they consider German-Americans visiting Germany to be American, despite their German surnames.

Maybe "some" would interpret this as millions of 'native Russians' in need of "immediate help"... while "others" would point to a few hundred thousand, doing very well in their new country.

I dunno... :rolleyes:
 
  • #431
DevilsAvocado said:
7.7% ≈ 6,000,000 ... :bugeye:
That's the percentage of the immigrant population(which is 16 million), not of the total German population(80 million). Check the wiki page on German demographics.
 
  • #432
Bandersnatch said:
That's the percentage of the immigrant population(which is 16 million), not of the total German population(80 million). Check the wiki page on German demographics.

Well, I did warn for my terrible German! :biggrin:

(thanks :blushing:)

P.S: 7.7% x 16 million = 1,232,000 ≈ 1.4 million (late-)Aussiedler, right? So where are the 560,178 ethnic Russians? And the 3.5 million native Russian speakers? Confusing...
 
  • #433
An economic war seems to be upcoming (I'm not surprised);

Reuters said:
[...]

EU SUPPORT FOR KIEV

In Brussels, the 28 EU leaders underlined their support for Ukraine's new leadership following Yanukovich's fall in street protests. They signed a political agreement with interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk and promised financial aid for the government - rejected as illegitimate by Moscow - as soon as Kiev reaches a deal with the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF is to report next Tuesday on advanced talks with Ukraine on a loan program that would be linked to far-reaching reforms of the shattered economy.

Three months of protests were set off by Yanukovich's refusal to sign an association agreement with the EU, the political part of which was signed on Friday.

The EU agreed to impose asset freezes and visa bans on 12 more mid-ranking Russian and Crimean officials and to consider wider economic sanctions if Russia further destabilizes the situation in Ukraine. But the EU does not have a legal basis to extend personal sanctions against Putin associates without proof of their involvement in the violation of Ukrainian sovereignty.

"Small measures in the EU are worth more than big measures in the United States," a senior European official said, noting that EU trade with Moscow was 10 times the U.S. volume.

A PANDORA'S BOX OF SANCTIONS

Russia's MICEX stock index fell about 3 percent when trade opened, although it recovered some of the losses later. Promsvyazbank analyst Oleg Shagov said Obama had "opened a Pandora's box full of sanctions", with future sanctions to be "directed against whole sectors of the Russian economy".

Negative market sentiment was reinforced by warnings from credit ratings agencies Fitch and S&P that they were changing their outlooks on Russia to negative from stable because of the possible impact of sanctions on Russia's economy and business climate. Both agencies presently rate Russia BBB.

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev made clear that Russia would step up financial pressure on Ukraine. He said the former Soviet republic should repay Moscow $11 billion under a gas supply contract that should be scrapped because it no longer applied.

Medvedev said the agreements under which Russia was to provide cheap gas in return for the lease of the Sevastopol naval base in Crimea were "subject to denunciation", giving Russia a legal right to sue for money back from Ukraine.

Altogether, Kiev owed Moscow $16 billion, he added.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/21/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA2K0MC20140321 (Reuters)
 
  • #434
DennisN said:
An economic war seems to be upcoming (I'm not surprised);

Yup, it has started (thank god).

President Obama Speaks on Ukraine (Mar 20, 2014)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P27AaOqbDa4
http://www.youtube.com/embed/P27AaOqbDa4

There are now intense activities among some of the oligarchs to avoid serious financial losses. Gennady Timchenko has sold his 23% stake in Gunvor Group Ltd (the fourth largest crude oil trader in the world) to Swedish co-founder Torbjörn Törnqvist:

Oil firm stake sold to Swede to duck US sanctions

3214138_762_429.jpg

Torbjörn Törnqvist, a director at Gunvor Group Ltd, tells Radio Sweden he is "outraged" that the US put the
company's co-founder on the Russian sanctions list.

Gennady Timchenko has close connections to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and even if there are no direct proofs – there are several indications that http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.energofond.ru%2Fen%2Fnovosti%2Fnovatek_becoming_putin%60s_offensive_reconnaissance_in_the_market%2F (friend) in the business of oil trade. Timchenko has an estimated fortune of $14.1 billion USD (ranked 62nd in Forbes).

novotek.jpg

Gennady Timchenko

Also today, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/21/ukraine-crisis-sanctions-smpbank-idUSL6N0MI16B20140321 for Russia's SMP Bank (43th in net assets). Boris Rotenberg and his older brother Arkady, who received large contracts for the Sochi Winter Olympics, are co-owners of SMP Bank.

And the MICEX Index is implementing the "Putin Roller Coaster"...


"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." -- Winston Churchill

:wink:
 
  • #435
By the way, I don't think anyone has posted this before (I hope)
- besides what they say, the body languages and facial expressions are interesting IMO:

Ukraine PM accuses Russia of military aggression at UN (from 13 March)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymt0v_Qic6o

There are some other UN clips on Ukraine available here. I'm going to watch them now, I think...
 
  • #437
Was the referendum legitimate or not ? Were the Crimeans forced to vote for Russia? When i saw in the BBC Crimeans were celebrating for their reunion with 'mother Russia'.
 
  • #438
Monsterboy said:
Was the referendum legitimate or not ? Were the Crimeans forced to vote for Russia? When i saw in the BBC Crimeans were celebrating for their reunion with 'mother Russia'.
In Sevastopol the support for Russia in the referendum was quite high... 122%.

But except from obvious fraud there is also some genuine support.
 
  • #439
Monsterboy said:
Was the referendum legitimate or not ? Were the Crimeans forced to vote for Russia?

Was there an alternative??

This was the original referendum question:
The Autonomous Republic of Crimea has its own state independence and is a part of Ukraine on the basis of agreements and treaties. (yes or no)

That on 6 March was changed to:
Choice 1: Are you in favor of the reunification of Crimea with Russia as a subject of the Russian Federation?

Choice 2: Are you in favor of restoring the 1992 Constitution and the status of Crimea as a part of Ukraine?

200px-2014_Crimean_referendum_ballot.png


Check out the formulation of Choice 2: Restoring what? Who broke it? Putin? What version of the "1992 Constitution", the "Republic of Crimea" or the "Autonomous Republic"??

Current Crimean Constitution is from 1999 and states that any changes in the Crimean Constitution must be approved by the Ukrainian parliament.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/us-ukraine-crisis-referendum-idUSBREA2A1GR20140311.

http://cdn29.elitedaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/crimea-vote-elite-daily.jpg
 
  • #440
DennisN said:
Ukraine crisis: Russia agrees to OCSE monitoring mission
Russia's approval of six-month deployment seen as possible indication of slight de-escalation of tensions

:thumbs::thumbs::thumbs:
 
  • #441
Can someone stop this Talking Head!? :cry:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VKpVK_v6hA
http://www.youtube.com/embed/3VKpVK_v6hA

A man who has become a millionaire by shareholdings and board membership in companies like Lundin Petroleum and Vostok Gas (holdings in Putin's Gazprom), and who is co-responsible for the clearance of Putin's Nord Stream gas pipeline – should today maybe keep a slightly lower profile...

Wikipedia – Carl Bildt – Wikileaks said:
It was revealed following the organization WikiLeaks release of classified diplomatic documents that US diplomats considered Bildt as "stubborn", "arrogant" and to have "limited political skills". Bildt was described as thinking he has more power and influence than he really has and was called a "medium size dog with big dog attitude". The US president George W. Bush was advised before a meeting to "play on Bildt's desire to operate at a high level" and to pretend to be impressed by his previous international assignments. Other US diplomats and politicians were also advised to play on Bildt's self-image to "keep him on a good mood".
 
  • #442
Monsterboy said:
Was the referendum legitimate or not ? Were the Crimeans forced to vote for Russia? When i saw in the BBC Crimeans were celebrating for their reunion with 'mother Russia'.
Democratic elections work, i.e. are legitimate, when they are held under law, the electorate know the outcome, and trust that it was more or less valid via free press access, etc. When there's an occupying army on the ground, with http://news.yahoo.com/kidnapping-reports-raise-pre-referendum-tensions-crimea-203434209.htmlt, that can not ever be the case.
 
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  • #443
DevilsAvocado said:
Can someone stop this Talking Head!? :cry:

If I understood him correctly, FM Bildt seemed to be indicating to the reporter that Putin can be expected to keep up pressure on Ukraine, with the goal of eventually controlling Kiev itself.

I have a question about the Ukraine military. They seem to be operating very passively, and without much in the way of orders or direction from Kiev. Can someone please shed some light on the relationship between the Ukraine military and government in Kiev?
 
  • #444
Dotini said:
I have a question about the Ukraine military. They seem to be operating very passively, and without much in the way of orders or direction from Kiev. Can someone please shed some light on the relationship between the Ukraine military and government in Kiev?

My guess - but it is just a guess - is that any orders they may have indicate to not use weapons. Government in Kiev is perfectly aware of the fact they stand no chance in terms of military conflict, so they don't want it to escalate it - instead they concentrate on building a political pressure.
 
  • #446
Dotini said:
If I understood him correctly, FM Bildt seemed to be indicating to the reporter that Putin can be expected to keep up pressure on Ukraine, with the goal of eventually controlling Kiev itself.

Yes, in principle he is right, but then most goes wrong... it's a long story (hope I'm not getting off-topic now?).

Carl Bildt originates from an old Norwegian-Danish-Swedish noble family ("Uradel") with roots in Norwegian and Danish Middle Ages, with a lot of prominent politicians and militaries in its history.

200px-Coatofarms-Bildt.jpg

Carl Bildt's heraldic badge

Carl Bildt grew up as a neighbor to the (Olof) Palme family, and when they both later became Members of Parliament there were always razor-sharp and combative debates on foreign affairs between the older and internationally recognized Olof Palme and the younger eager Carl Bildt.

Carl Bildt always strived to become a "Man of the World" (as Olof Palme already was), and in 1981 his chance came when the Soviet submarine U 137 (S-363) ran aground close to one of Sweden's larger naval bases, with political mayhem as consequence.

[no English subtitles]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJa0YNBYP1g
http://www.youtube.com/embed/yJa0YNBYP1g

During the rest of 1980s there was a series of several incidents involving foreign submarines, and Carl Bildt was very active blaming the Soviet Union for the intrusions and thereby escalating tension with Moscow. Bildt's "political war" with Soviet/Russia has never really stopped, and because of his 'heritage', some made mocking parallels to the Great Northern War (1700–1721) and the Battle of Poltava 1709 (Ukraine) where the Swedish/Polish army lost against a twice as big army of Russians and Cossacks, which marked the decline of Sweden's as a Great Power as Russia now took over as the leading nation of north-eastern Europe.

600px-Marten%27s_Poltava.jpg

Battle of Poltava 1709 (Ukraine)

And this has gotten much worse lately; where http://televisionsreviewss.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/russian-mockery-television-on-bildt.html and is supposed to be behind the unrest in Ukraine in order to avenge Charles XII's defeat at Poltava (sigh).

[no English subtitles]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHd2jeVGGgc
http://www.youtube.com/embed/LHd2jeVGGgc

This makes Carl Bildt maybe the worst 'diplomatic negotiator' EU can come up with at the moment, and his involvement in Putin's gas business makes the whole thing even worse, not to say almost 'burlesque'.

I think it's best for everyone if Carl Bildt stays a little more in the 'background' until all this is over... we don't want another "Poltava" on our neck...

Dotini said:
I have a question about the Ukraine military. They seem to be operating very passively, and without much in the way of orders or direction from Kiev. Can someone please shed some light on the relationship between the Ukraine military and government in Kiev?

I think Borek hit the nail.
 
  • #447
Borek said:
My guess - but it is just a guess - is that any orders they may have indicate to not use weapons. Government in Kiev is perfectly aware of the fact they stand no chance in terms of military conflict, so they don't want it to escalate it - instead they concentrate on building a political pressure.
That's my guess too.

DevilsAvocado said:
I think Borek hit the nail.
Me too.

EDIT:
Latest from Reuters; according to the article below, Russia is now in control of all Ukrainian military facilities in Crimea, and NATO's top military commander is worried about Moldova's separatist Transnistria region:

NATO commander warns of Russian threat to separatist Moldova region

Reuters article said:
(Reuters) - NATO's top military commander said on Sunday that Russia had a large force on Ukraine's eastern border and he was worried it could pose a threat to Moldova's separatist Transdniestria region.

The warning comes a day after Russian troops, using armored vehicles, automatic weapons and stun grenades, seized the last military facilities under Ukrainian control in Crimea, the Black Sea peninsular that Russian President Vladimir Putin formally annexed on Friday.

[...]
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/23/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA2M09920140323

If I read the map correctly, Transnistria is landlocked.
 
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  • #448
DevilsAvocado said:
I am very disappointed on Mr. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, whom has acted very logical and responsible up till now. Does The Great 21th Century Tsar not understand that there are much more crucial "anonymous-land-grabbing" to be done elsewhere, as is clearly indicated on the Russian diaspora "Help Me!" list:

<image deleted by Om, to save bandwidth>

The only logical order of priority must be: Ukraine, Germany, Latvia and then Estonia & United Kingdom!


Edit - Note: strong irony warning

[If there is anything more to this than a rhetoric war of words – it's insane]


Sorry for the necro-post[1], but your image is somewhat disingenuous.

The global numbers for Russian diaspora yield the following ranking:

Ukraine....8,334,000
Kazakhstan...4,480,000
United States...3,163,084

Which would indicate, that we Americans, are third in line for the Putin Protection Program.

Anyways...

This thread has prompted me to go back and review some of my Swiss Cheezy[2] history.

wiki on the House_of_Romanov said:
...marry him off the German princess Sophia of Anhalt-Zerbst (better known as Catherine the Great). Catherine's son, Paul I was particularly proud to be great-grandson of the illustrious Russian monarch, although his mother insinuated in her memoirs that Paul's natural father had been her lover Serge Saltykov, as opposed to her husband, Peter.

Catherine the Great, was German?
And she messed around with the local boys?
Girls...
I wonder if my great-great-great grandfather wondered why his kids looked more like the Ukrainian mailman, than him.

Another thing I discovered, thanks to prompting by:

SteamKing said:
Catherine the Great invited Germans to settle southern Russia in the 18th century, where they pioneered on the steppes between Saratov and Tsaritsyn (later Stalingrad, then Volgograd). These 'Volga Germans' were allowed to keep their German language and religion and lived unmolested until the outbreak of WWII. Stalin forced the evacuation of the Volga Germans eastward to Siberia and Kazakhstan, and few ever returned to their former homes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volga_Germans

led me back to find out which society I once belonged to: http://www.ahsgr.org/Index.htm

Our past is in the archives
and records from villages in
Russia, Ukraine and the Black Sea

as I knew I wasn't a Volga German.

Although it's been nearly 30 years since I saw the envelopes, I distinctly remember that the postmarks were from Odessa.

And that prompted me to find my aunt's name in the archive, and find out that the letters spanned the period of 1909 through 1933. Which seems to confirm my suspicion, that the Holodomor was a fact.

But that is neither here, nor there. It is simply a fact.

Moving on, I googled the name of the town in which my German/Ukrainian ancestors lived, as no one, 30 years ago, knew where the town was, and I was delighted by the fact, that someone had figured it out.

It is 50 kilometers north of the city of Odessa. (Not being a very good student, I didn't realize back then, that there was also an "Oblast" named Odessa.)

This Lutheran cemetery is not being used today and is known by the Rohrbach Cemetery name since it was established in 1809/10 when the village was colonized by the Germans. Later when the Germans were killed or removed the tombstones were destroyed, removed and scattered and some were used in local buildings. This destruction was done to stop the Germans from wanting to return to the villages where their ancestors were buried. The Germans planted lilacs in the cemetery and can easily be found near the villages.

That's it.

And in conclusion, I would just like to state, that I love you all.

Evo said:
Going forward, any member whose post doesn't meet "current event" guidelines...

The Boss said:
Mar5-06, 04:39 PM

...if moderator action is required due to violation of any of the above forum-specific guidelines, the member committing the violation will receive a 3-day ban to “cool off” and a 5 point warning.


Evo said:
Feb27-12, 05:41 PM

Effective immediately all infractions in P&WA will be doubled, both in points and duration.

I know what a doubling of 5 means. And I know that calling someone "disingenuous" means that I've basically called him a liar, which violates the rules.

Ciao! :cry:

------------------------
[1] Remember when a necro-post meant "More than a year ago", and not "4 days ago".
[2] Full of holes.
 
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  • #449
Odessa, being a major seaport, naval base, and resort on the Black Sea, was a rather cosmopolitan town, attracting many immigrants who worked in the shipping industry. It was the fourth largest city in the Russian empire and was designated a 'free port' in 1819, which provided the impetus for many immigrants to locate there.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa

On the subject of the Romanovs, there was much intermarriage between the members of the Romanov dynasty and the princely houses of western Europe, particularly the German ones. In fact, Nicholas II's wife was German, and a descendant of Queen Victoria of Great Britain, which did not endear her to her subjects before WWI, and especially not after the outbreak of war. Nicholas' family tree shows kinship with a variety of European aristocrats, and on his mother's side of the family, he was descended from the kings of Denmark and various German princes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancestry_of_Nicholas_II_of_Russia
 
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  • #450
DennisN said:
NATO commander warns of Russian threat to separatist Moldova region

If I read the map correctly, Transnistria is landlocked.

Gosh, let's hope it is 'false alarm'... :/

Yes, it is landlocked:
TransnistrianRegionMap.png


But it looks like there are already 1,200 Russian troops there...
 

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