News Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

[Crazymechanic]

First of all Russ you said this

Do you have any evidence of that? If not, it is conspiracy theory and you need to stop posting such things. It is against our rules.

Not exactly true , ok I don't have info to back up my theory on the events in Ukraine because they are new and happening, But I can give you links to CIA own homepage where they have written their past covert operations in detail and judging by what they write themselves not to mention the various all other surces and history itself I can be pretty much sure about theuir tactics and policy , and let's be honest Russ , you know too pefectly well what is going on , it;'s just that the part of story that we don't like or prefer we usually choose to either ignore or call fake.We are free to do that but let'snot fool our selves at the end...
One thing is for sure CIA has taken part in many coups and government overthrows around the world during the 20th century, I'm a little lazy to find all the papers now but if you will ask for them , be my guest , I will provide them.
Everybody has an interest in Ukraine , starting from the US to Russia to EU and localo gangsters and radicals , and the way it all comes together is a big mess.


Also another thing , few pages before in this very thread , Admin Greg deleted my post to a youtube video about Estonian foreign minister and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Catherine Ashton, about their telephone conversation about the Ukraine snipers case.
Greg said that he thought that the video is fake and not trustworthy and he labelled it " crackpot"
Yet the Estonian government and the minister himself has admitted the phone conversation to be authentic , just to remind everyone that Estonia is a NATO country and this is the voice of their minister of foreign affairs.

here is the link to the ministry of foreign affairs of Estonia with their statement about the authenticity of the telephone record.

http://www.vm.ee/?q=en/node/19353

Since the video is authentic , I will post it here one more time so that other folks can have their share of fair information and hear the opinions of high ranking EU and Estonia people about the case.





I could go into a lot of detail about Ukrainian topics and far more , as I said I personally know people from security and intelligence organizations , but I believe that many of the PF staff and also maybe some members will dislike this info even though it is the truth so I will decline in speaking any further about the details of this.

I can tell you only one thing , the truth is not always the one which you hear or the one which you have been told or teached at a certain point.Especially when it comes down to politics different parties and agendas push their manipulated , distorted and heavily subjective information as the only ultimate truth , because otherwise they couldn't survive and hold the power ad quite frankly some poeple just ask for lies as they themselves live in a big lie that they call life.

Im sorry for being a little poetic as PF probably dislikes such style but sometimes you just have to ask yourself , how long is your life and how much do you or anyone actually gain by feeding yourself and other with propoganda and lies?

And finally , the communists and all other " isms" like Nazism has done a great harm to the world , to that we all agree , but if one chooses to believe or serve a false pretence for whatever the reason good or bad , is he any better than those whom he fights against ? Is he any good?
One must ask himself do we fight lies with lies? Has anyone tried to fight fire with fire?
Tell me the outcome , I would like to hear :)

Think about these thing folks , and have a good day.

 

[SteamKing]

That is true, but. No one except perhaps the USA would want to fiddle with the pipelines. It is certainly not in the interest of Ukraine nor of the EU. And it will take a serious effort to damage the pipelines severely in any large extent, so the stakeholders will have ample time to avert or minimise the damage.

Given the administration's bent, I don't think you have to worry about action against the pipelines from the US. However, if a shooting war breaks out, there are no guarantees that stray munitions might not land near a pipeline or pumping station. The Russians and the Ukrainians both lose in such an event, but that doesn't mean that an accident can't happen.

 

[Dotini]

if one chooses to believe or serve a false pretence for whatever the reason good or bad , is he any better than those whom he fights against ? Is he any good?
One must ask himself do we fight lies with lies? Has anyone tried to fight fire with fire?
Tell me the outcome , I would like to hear :)

Think about these thing folks , and have a good day.

I'm as guilty as anyone else when it comes to denying truth in favor of more comforting and beautiful lies. Sometimes, if the truth is too ugly or brutal, I prefer to take a craft brew and watch Game of Thrones - where I learn that there is never any pure good or bad, no unvarnished truth, and things are always ambivalent.

With respect to the video, I accept it as authentic. But it only proves that an investigation is needed. I think that extremely unlikely.

Personally, I think too much water has gone under the bridge for an investigation of the Maidan sniping. Too much ante has been pushed into the pot. It will remain a conspiracy theory, an unplayed variation of the chessgame, while a different solution is worked out.

 

[Crazymechanic]

Well one " dead giveaway" will be the actions of the new government , if they will not investigate the sniper shootings while being pro western then that will be an alarming signal that something is not right , the west " used to be" a self proclaimed pillar for justice and equal rights , and if so then justice must come to those killing innocent unarmed people.
here is how I see what will happen probably , the Crimean region will be under Russian cotrol , maybe even become part or Russia again and the rest of Ukraine will remain free because that would be a " too big" of a step for Putin at the current position and situation.

If indeed Ukraine will have pro west leaders with pro west policy from now onwards then i suspect corruption to be the same and everything else , except Washington will now sleep peacefully.
Forgive my critique and dark painted scenes but I ahve seen that the ex soviet , half mafia so called democratic leaders of the former communist states have a interesting policy in the 21st. century.
They don't care where the money comes from as long as it ends up in their back pocket.It's just that now it will come from the US budget in the already approved financial aid.

The same thing happened with much of the money from EU towards the countries that joined the EU in 2004.millions and millions of dolllars went into doubtful projects with even more doubtful results , like road renovations with the new road failing after a year. Cogeneration power plants being built in the middle of a countryside field just to get money off from state sponsored electricity production through renewable resources even though the heat that is also produced and is meant to be used is wasted away because electricity can be transferred much further than heat due to physics and the folks here know that.

It's not Russia so much that degrades and destroys countries , it's not some agenda etc, it;s greed and corruption of the very people who should serve their land that puts their very motherland under such conditions.
Given the resources and exports of Ukraine they could do pretty well instead of having a chaos and risk of default.

Also whenever we speak of justice , we should lookm at the personal wealth of the pro western backed leaders in countries with western influence , in many cases we find their personal wealth staggering and huge with some lawsuits hanging in mid air and doubtful financial income.
Yulia Tymoshenko is no exception.And trust me working in government in an ex soviet country you can't get rich just by your official sallary.So where does the money come from ?
From various sources too long to describe here but can be labelled with one word corruption.

If one wants to turn Ukraine over just dealing with Russian influence is not merely enough , the whole system and the thinking f the poeple in power must be reorganized.Something the US and much of the west went through back in the day and it took them decades to become the states they are now.
Quite frankly I doubt that every nation can become " normal" so to speak of by western standards , just because people are different , mentality is different , history and thinking all differs.
Excuse me but I'm kinda skeptical about this whole thing.The only thing I wish is for the poeple of Ukraine and other places to be able to live a free and civilized life without any influences both good or bad both western or eastern , just to be able to see the fruits of their own work.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

No one said that in 2008 and no one is saying that now.

You need to watch the video again.

Sean Hannity: My next guest *predicted* that this would happen way back in 2008, but liberals and democrats they laughed it off, you may remember this:

Sarah Palin: After the Russian army invaded the nation of Georgia, senator Obama's reaction was one of indecision and moral ebullience, the kind of response that would only encourage Russia's Putin to invade Ukraine next!

Who needs Michael Palin & Monty Python? It can't get any more entertaining than this. Fox & Palin can't even get the grammar right; in "2008" she talks in past tense about the 2014 invasion of Ukraine, as if it has already happened... Gosh!

Given Obama's actions while president, pulling out of Afghanistan and Iraq, secretly negotiating with Iran, fumbling round with Egypt and Libya, and totally humiliated in handling Syria, Putin knew that he could expect no serious or credible threats from the US or NATO or Europe w.r.t. his actions in the Ukraine.

Nice, more Palin humor, the "fumbling" that shattered Libya's defense in a couple of days with a few ships and missile precision bombing, strongly encourage Putin to invade Ukraine??

And now the fact that George W. Bush did absolutely nothing when Putin invaded Georgia in 2008, have absolutely nothing to do with it??

This is first class humor.

 

[DennisN]

Since the video is authentic , I will post it here one more time so that other folks can have their share of fair information and hear the opinions of high ranking EU and Estonia people about the case.

And I remind folks about my post 216 about this thing. According to the Daily Telegraphs correspondent Damien McElroy, Olga Bogomolets has denied she had said anything about any "sniper conspiracy theory" to Mr Paet:

"Myself I saw only protesters. I do not know the type of wounds suffered by military people," she told The Telegraph. "I have no access to those people."

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10677370/Ukraine-Russia-crisis-live.html (about 1/3 down on that page at 15.17)

 

[Crazymechanic]

I'm afraid we will not know who the snipers were for a pretty long time.this is not the typical robbery thing , this is so much more on such a higher level.

Many famous high level shootings and crimes are still unsolved and as time passes they will probably be left so for the rest of eternity.

 

[Czcibor]

@Crazymechanic
I think that if we already discuss as it was politely called "non-mainstream political theories", why should we only narrow ourselves to only those that could hypothetically put Russia in better light? Shouldn't we also take into account those that would adversely influence Russian image? I mean in Poland we used to have president named Lech Kaczyński who was ardently anti-Russian. He provided diplomatic support for Georgia during their war with Russia. He died in air crash on Russia soil, in plane produced by Russians while visiting mass graves of Polish officers murdered by Stalin. After all those almost 4 years Russians were rather uncooperative in sharing data during their investigation and still did not give us the remnants of plane for our own investigation. Could you guess which theories circulate in my country, especially among the more nationalistic part of the society?

The official version is an accident. May I use here arguments in your style, implying that we would never know the truth who was responsible, however, with hint that there is one suspect?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

According to CNN International; Frigate USS Taylor is now in the Black Sea, and guided missile destroyer USS Truxtun is on its way through the Bosphorus (Istanbul Strait)...

USS Taylor (4,200 t / 138 m)

USS Truxtun (9,200 t / 160 m)

 

[nsaspook]

According to CNN International; Frigate USS Taylor is now in the Black Sea, and guided missile destroyer USS Truxtun is on its way through the Bosphorus (Istanbul Strait)...

All true but nothing what wasn't scheduled long ago to keep a presence in the area.

http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=79498

While in the Black Sea, the ship will conduct a port visit and routine, previously planned exercises with allies and partners in the region. Truxtun's operations in the Black Sea were scheduled well in advance of her departure from the United States.

I'm sure she will be conducting extensive ELINT and other activities with Taylor and Whitney on the current events.

http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=78959

BLACK SEA (NNS) -- The U.S. 6th Fleet flag ship USS Mount Whitney (LCC 20), with 300 Sailors and Military Sealift Command civil service mariners onboard, arrived in the Black Sea Feb. 4 to conduct scheduled maritime security operations. USS Taylor (FFG 50) will arrive in the Black Sea Feb. 5.

 

[mheslep]

...
...the fact that George W. Bush did absolutely nothing when Putin invaded Georgia in 2008, ...

When Russia invaded Georgia in the summer of 2008, incurring over a thousand Georgian casualties, the US made many repeated statements and actions emphasizing that Georgia was a sovereign state whose territory must be respected, that Georgia was not simply another Russian appendage, to include:

• Statement by the US UN Ambassador in the UN security council.

  "This is completely unacceptable and crosses a line," ..."The days of overthrowing leaders by military means in Europe -- those days are gone,"..."We must condemn Russia's military assault on the sovereign state of Georgia ... including the targeting of civilians and the campaign of terror against the Georgian population,"

• With Russia-US talks ongoing about missile defense to be installed in Poland, Gates said:

  “If Russia does not step back from its aggressive posture and actions in Georgia, the U.S.-Russian relationship could be adversely affected for years to come.”

• President gave multiple Rose Garden speeches strongly condemning the Russia invasion, also alluding to EU allies objections.
• Relief supplies were flown into Georgia via several US Navy and Airforce cargo plane flights.
• A small team of Pentagon officials went to Georgia during the invasion, was on the ground.
• "Cancelled outright" or withdrew from "several [cooperative US-Russia] military exercises that were to have included Russian forces."
• A US destroyer (USS McFaul) and three other US ships were dispatched to the Black Sea and docked or anchored off the port of Batumi, delivering tons of supplies.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/15/world/europe/15policy.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/10/un.georgia/
http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=39317

 

[Naty1]

Peter Glover, Breitbart, 7 March 2014

"The reason [for Russia’s military intervention] is part of the Kremlin's long-term and officially stated (if you bother to look for it) great game: energy imperialism. That is, recovering Russia's global superpower status via the the chief weapon at its disposal: its oil and energy clout... The blueprint for all this was formally laid down in May 2009, when a Kremlin security document, approved and published by the Russian Security Council, explicitly sanctioned the use of military force in pursuit of the goal of returning Russia to "energy superpower" status..."

 

[Dotini]

What Bush did or didn't do in '08 means nothing. It was all empty gestures and wind, which were canceled when Hillary pushed her reset button.

Now, Kerry and Lavrov, Obama and Putin, have spent hours and hours on end negotiating. They seem agreeable except on one key point - the legitimacy of the revolutionary government in Kiev. So far, so good; except the clock is ticking on the Crimean referendum.

 

[mheslep]

What Bush did or didn't do in '08 means nothing. It was all empty gestures and wind, which were canceled when Hillary pushed her reset button.

US diplomacy/aid means nothing, or just diplomacy under Bush means nothing? In Georgia, or in Ukraine, or nowhere? What is the basis for that statement? Consider what Georgian leaders have said on the subject of US diplomacy.

 

[Dotini]

US diplomacy/aid means nothing, or just diplomacy under Bush means nothing? In Georgia, or in Ukraine, or nowhere? What is the basis for that statement? Consider what Georgian leaders have said on the subject of US diplomacy.

US diplomacy vis a vis Georgia was contained in a small box.
http://www.henryakissinger.com/articles/iht093008.html

 

[Crazymechanic]

@Czcibor yes I know about the Tupolev that crashed in Russia , that was a polish government plane and it crashed while landing in Russia in kinda thick fog etc.
Ofcourse the first thing that came into my mind when I heard it was "KGB"
So many high ranking people who are enemies of the Kremlin on one plane.Also the plane was landed in a lonely military airfield and many other interesting facts.
But because of any lack of info that would point towards it , I would decline to speculate on such events.

And about the snipers , I never said I do believe there are some great conspiracies under them , I just laid down the cards and said who would most likely benefit from such actions and to whom those actions would be bad or unwanted.
Russia doesn't want to start the blooshed , it's not in their interssts , they just want to take their part and go through all of this with as little dead bodies as possible because tat would paint them in an even worse light in the internation media.

I mean it's like when you drive drunk and you get stopped by the police , now your already in trouble , what would you rather do? Try to communicate your way out of this somehow or with the smallest possible punishment or would you rather start to insult and beat the police officer then steal his car and then run over some pedestrians?

But just as I said , we will never know for sure.Even if someone kinda " helped" the plane to land the way it did , we will probably never know his name.

Even though I always am kinda skeptical to such accusitions but ofcourse one has to think baout all the possibillities and then judging by the evidence at hand choose the most plausible outcome.

 

[Crazymechanic]

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/07/opinion/putin-western-hypocrosy/index.html?hpt=hp_c1


read this article , I must say when i saw it first I couldn't believe my eyes, never expected to see such an opinion on CNN.
Maybe their not that bad after all.

 

[Astronuc]

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/07/opinion/putin-western-hypocrosy/index.html?hpt=hp_c1


read this article , I must say when i saw it first I couldn't believe my eyes, never expected to see such an opinion on CNN.
Maybe their not that bad after all.

Yes, but from the Editor's note: "Simon Tisdall is assistant editor and foreign affairs columnist of the Guardian. He was previously foreign editor of the Guardian and the Observer and served as White House corespondent and U.S. editor in Washington D.C. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely his."

There are some important differences between the Crimean situation and the campaigns of US intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan - primarily, Russia appears ready to annex Crimea, whereas the US did not annex all or parts of Iraq or Afghanistan. Ukraine is not a threat to Russia, whereas elements of Iraq and Afghanistan were threatening the security of the US and other nations.

 

[voko]

Ukraine is not a threat to Russia

The Russian assumption is that the current Ukrainian regime will be inherently pro-Western and anti-Russian, quite possibly making Ukraine a Nato member. That is a serious threat (or so it is perceived in Moscow) to Russia's Black Sea fleet even if it fully relocates to Novorossiysk. The changing balance of power will undoubtedly affect Russia's politics in the nearby Caucasus region.

whereas elements of Iraq and Afghanistan were threatening the security of the US and other nations.

Of the US? In what way?

 

[DennisN]

The Russian assumption is that the current Ukrainian regime will be inherently pro-Western and anti-Russian, quite possibly making Ukraine a Nato member. That is a serious threat (or so it is perceived in Moscow) to Russia's Black Sea fleet even if it fully relocates to Novorossiysk. The changing balance of power will undoubtedly affect Russia's politics in the nearby Caucasus region.

And a political/economical "threat" too, I think;

Russia has been planning for the so-called Eurasian Union by 2015

and

Ukraine seeking observer status in Eurasian Economic Union - Yanukovych (Interfax Ukraine, 19 December 2013).

And my guess is Russia would very much like to have an Ukraine in the Eurasian Union in the future, rather than in the EU.

 

[mheslep]

NATO is an observably a defensive organization. That is, we know, the Kremlin knows, and everybody knows the Kremlin knows, that NATO does not offensively take over and fly its flag over other countries. For example, the now defunct missile installation project for Poland about which Russia gnashed its teeth was an ABM project, i.e. missile defense. The project never contained any notion of an offensive missile installation that might attack Russia.

NATO is only a threat to Russia in that NATO would obstruct Russian attempts to annex/invade/terrorize/subvert NATO member nations.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

When Russia invaded Georgia in the summer of 2008, incurring over a thousand Georgian casualties, the US made many repeated statements and actions emphasizing that Georgia was a sovereign state whose territory must be respected, that Georgia was not simply another Russian appendage, to include:

Maybe some misunderstanding, my point is that Sarah Palin (and the rightwing) is trying to blame Obama (besides bad weather) for what's happening in Ukraine, with maybe FOX/Palin making the "smartest" move of them all, by claiming that Obama was responsible for what happened 2008 in Georgia – by doing nothing. Besides this 'little' lie; Sarah Palin also "knew" way back in 2008 that Obama's "grandiose failure" in Georgia would lead to the 2014 Ukraine crisis.

Most folks know that GWB did less about Georgia than Obama has already done regarding Ukraine, where GWB's position basically was:

"Bullying and intimidation are not acceptable ways to conduct foreign policy in the 21st century."​

This makes the FOX/Palin claim just another "grandiose joke".

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Stephen Cohen on CNN GPS:

"We are two steps away from a Cuban missile crisis and three steps from war with Russia"​

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03j9URLL3ns
http://www.youtube.com/embed/03j9URLL3ns

Well, if Russians only get this kind of information (the light version):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsX9OkSCNng
http://www.youtube.com/embed/zsX9OkSCNng

And this is to be solved by martial arts experts (with Russian oil in the hair):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nl8rgWUgmR8
http://www.youtube.com/embed/nl8rgWUgmR8

Murphy's Law may still hold...

 

[SteamKing]

AFAIK, Sarah Palin didn't invade the Ukraine, and she didn't cause the government there to fall.

If you read mheslep's post #253, you will see that a number of things were done by the Bush Administration to signal its disagreement with Putin's actions in Georgia, including taking the rare step to send naval ships deep into the Black Sea to deliver supplies.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

AFAIK, Sarah Palin didn't invade the Ukraine, and she didn't cause the government there to fall.

Are you sure? She can see Russia from her house... [note: this is a joke]

If you read mheslep's post #253, you will see that a number of things were done by the Bush Administration to signal its disagreement with Putin's actions in Georgia, including taking the rare step to send naval ships deep into the Black Sea to deliver supplies.

Looks like we are talking past each other, this is the "logic":

• According to FOX/Palin, nothing was done about the 2008 Georgia crisis.
• According to FOX/Palin, the man responsible for this was Obama.
• We all know that GWB was President at the moment.
• Therefore the "nothingness" FOX/Palin is talking about falls back on GWB.

Do you get it??

Personally, I think Putin lives in an isolated bubble of "Yes Men" and super-hyped nationalism, and what has been done or not in the past will probably have very little influence on the decisions taken in this kind of 'atmosphere'. Perhaps...

 

[jim hardy]

It's admittedly "cool" in some circles to hammer Palin and Fox but it adds nothing to the discussion.

 

[mheslep]

In the Budapest Memorandums on Security Assurances treaty of 1994 the US and the UK pledged to "respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine" so that Ukraine might rid itself of nuclear weapons. Given the light US response to the Russian incursion thus far, and the lack of popular support shown by "140310075746" in the US, it may be that the US should consider withdrawing from a treaty that carries far larger commitments: NATO. Article 5 is the signature part of NATO, stating "an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all". Thus a theoretical invasion of Poland or Finland obligates the US and others to war. NATO members visibly have relied on this agreement for decades.

If the US is, in fact, unlikely to make good on Article 5, should it not withdraw from the treaty now, thereby informing the like of Poland and Lithuanian that they need rely on themselves rather than depending on a possible fiction?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

If the US is, in fact, unlikely to make good on Article 5, should it not withdraw from the treaty now, thereby informing the like of Poland and Lithuanian that they need rely on themselves rather than depending on a possible fiction?

Yes, signed agreements are what they are... personally I think this can't be solved by military force, in any direction, without the risk of blowing the heads of us all in the end...

If Putin does not wake up from his little "La Belle au bois dormant" and realize that both Stalin and Communism is dead, the only way to get this in right direction is by stock markets and finance. The Russian export is approx 550 USD Billion and EU accounts for 53%.

Angela Merkel and EU just have to call Putin and tell him that the sweet days are over; we are going to find new and nicer friends to play with, and of course the Istanbul Strait and Øresund has to be closed until Putin behaves like the nice boy he really is (to ship oil meanwhile, he can drill a hole in the Murmansk ice).

I'm absolutely convinced that he will come crawling to "Mamma Merkel" for consolation and new business plans within a few days. Merkel and EU only have to show that they are serious about this (which Moscow & Putin don't believe at the moment).

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Viktor Yanukovych's luxury mansion Mezhyhirya (with "Gold Toilets" etc) is estimated to have cost more than $75 million U.S. dollars.

When Yanukovych fled the country, he didn't want anyone to get "the full excessive picture", so he dumped some 200 folders of documents in a lake behind the former residence. Sadly, the stubborn documents refused to sink and have been fished out and dried (with help from the presidential sauna).

The whole thing, 9504 documents, is now available on line at YanukovychLeaks.org, and among the papers are receipts for payment of $115,000 for a shooting range and $2.3m for a tea room.

Yanukovych will (probably) throw a great tea party for whole of Ukraine once he gets back...?

This man is a genius!

 

[SteamKing]

In the Budapest Memorandums on Security Assurances treaty of 1994 the US and the UK pledged to "respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine" so that Ukraine might rid itself of nuclear weapons. Given the light US response to the Russian incursion thus far, and the lack of popular support shown by "140310075746" in the US, it may be that the US should consider withdrawing from a treaty that carries far larger commitments: NATO. Article 5 is the signature part of NATO, stating "an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all". Thus a theoretical invasion of Poland or Finland obligates the US and others to war. NATO members visibly have relied on this agreement for decades.

If the US is, in fact, unlikely to make good on Article 5, should it not withdraw from the treaty now, thereby informing the like of Poland and Lithuanian that they need rely on themselves rather than depending on a possible fiction?

The Budapest Memorandums are not a 'treaty' between the U.S. or anyone else. In order for a treaty to have the force of law in the U.S., it must be ratified by the U.S. Senate. The Memorandums are statements given to assure the Ukraine government that, among other things, the integrity of its borders would be protected in return for the Ukraine giving up the considerable nuclear weapons arsenal left within it after the USSR dissolved.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

Starting with the Clinton administration and continuing into the Bush administration, it was felt that drafting a formal treaty with the Ukraine would not be worthwhile, since such a treaty would be unlikely to be ratified by the U.S. Senate. The U.S., the U.K., and the Russian Federation agreed to the guarantee of the security of the Ukraine, but as a practical and political matter, there is little possibility of the U.S. and the U.K. intervening with military forces to stop Russia.

The memorandums were drafted before Putin came to power. After Putin came to power, he knew that both the Ukraine and Georgia had petitioned NATO for membership, or a least for a process to be considered for membership, which was deferred by a vote of NATO members in 2008. If the Ukraine or Georgia were admitted to NATO, either could claim Article 5 protection in case of attack. Since neither the Ukraine nor Georgia are NATO members, the Article 5 talk is moot.

IMO, this is one reason Putin moved against Georgia in 2008, not long after the NATO meetings that year: it was a rather obvious signal to the west that Putin would not tolerate having former Soviet republics become NATO members.