Is the COVID-19 pandemic already past its peak?

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The discussion centers on whether the COVID-19 pandemic has peaked, with many expressing cautious optimism due to declining infection and death rates globally, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. Vaccination efforts are underway, but concerns remain about the effectiveness of vaccines against emerging variants, especially in regions like Africa and South America where vaccination rates are lower. Data from countries like Israel shows fluctuating case numbers, raising questions about the overall effectiveness of vaccines in preventing severe outcomes. The conversation also highlights the importance of understanding case fatality rates (CFR) and testing rates, as discrepancies exist between countries like Turkey and Italy. Overall, while there is hope for continued decline in cases, vigilance is necessary as new variants may pose challenges.
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ElliotSmith said:
Summary:: Is the CV19 pandemic already past it's highest point?

Has the CV19 pandemic already peaked?
Your question differs to the title.

Also, unclear what you mean. Peak of what metric?

The peak of total cases will occur when the last person to ever get it has it. Not before.

The peak of case 'rate'?

The peak of death 'rate'?

The daily rolling average, versus annual?

I suspect that once this is all over and we are no longer in the middle of it, one will be able to use statistics to show exactly what one wants to show about it.

I suspect a 5 year rolling average of annual death rate over the century, for example, will make Covid cases disappear as if nothing abnormal happened.

Whereas if one takes the 'rate of change' of 'death rate' then there will be two or three very tall narrow peaks signalling something odd this year.

Questions. Statistics. Politics. Accuracy? ... Sighs!
 

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