Is the GOP Poised to Gain Control of the US Senate in 2014?

[Astronuc]

The big question is whether or not the GOP can gain control of the US Senate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/27/us/politics/2014-elections-likely-to-keep-capitals-split.html

. . . .
The election is still 10 months away, and a major misstep by either party or an unexpected outside event could quickly shift the narrative of a campaign season that is likely to set records for midterm spending by outside groups seeking to influence the outcome without disclosing the sources behind their cash.
. . . .

Some incumbents are retiring.

 

[Vanadium 50]

The Democrats have 21 seats to defend, and the Republicans have 15. The Republicans have to pick up 6 seats to gain control of the Senate.

Of the 21, 15 are in states where the President is polling below 50%. The Democrats therefore have to keep 10 of them - the other 6 are pretty safe. Some of those seats are more secure than others. For example, Tom Udall is wildly popular in New Mexico, even though the President is not. South Dakota, on the other hand, will be tough. Tim Johnson is retiring, and Stephanie Herseth is not running. The only other candidates who have won statewide elections are on the GOP side. (Indeed, the leading Democratic candidate, Rick Weiland, has never won an election)

 

[Astronuc]

McCain Censure the Latest Sign of GOP Fratricide
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mccain-censure-latest-sign-gop-194100763.html

. . .
In a move both bizarre and ill-timed, Arizona Republican Party members voted to censure Sen. John McCain – a highly-decorated Vietnam War hero, maverick conservative and 2008 Republican presidential nominee – for being too liberal for their taste.
. . . .

We live in interesting times.

 

[Astronuc]

Ted Nugent Loses the Washington Times, Rick Perry, Rand Paul
http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2...he_washington_times_rick_perry_rand_paul.html

Some of the 2014 campaigns are colorful, and apparently it will only get worse for 2016.

 

[mheslep]

Ted Nugent ...

is relevant how to the thread?

 

[Vanadium 50]

Ted Nugent was nutty 40 years ago, and hasn't improved with time. He's also never held a public office - unlike, say James Trafficant, who is off the scale.

But how is this relevant to this year's election?

 

[Astronuc]

is relevant how to the thread?

Ted Nugent was nutty 40 years ago, and hasn't improved with time. He's also never held a public office - unlike, say James Trafficant, who is off the scale.

But how is this relevant to this year's election?

Gubernatorial elections can influence Congressional elections, and I'm curious how this will affect Texas congressional elections, particularly those of folks like Steve Stockman, who has close ties with Nugent.

Stockman, who invited Nugent to the State of the Union address, has decided to challenge John Cornyn for the US Senate. Apparently, there is a wide field of challengers for Cornyn's seat. Abbott declined to run for the Senate.

 

[russ_watters]

Ted Nugent was nutty 40 years ago, and hasn't improved with time. He's also never held a public office - unlike, say James Trafficant, who is off the scale.

But how is this relevant to this year's election?

C'mon, when a rich or famous Republican says something nutty, it's always news! Didn't you know that?!?

 

[Astronuc]

Seven Senate races to watch:

Kentucky: "McConnell is expected to win the primary, but he faces a tough general election challenger, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky's Secretary of State."

Arkansas: Mark Pryor faces GOP challenger, Rep. Tom Cotton.

North Carolina: "Five GOP candidates are vying for the chance to challenge the Democratic incumbent, Kay Hagen. The most prominent Republican in the race is State House Speaker Thom Tillis, . . . "

Georgia: "Democratic candidate, Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn, is enjoying a steady lead among the eight Republican candidates -- including Reps. Phil Gingrey, Jack Kingston and Paul Broun and former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel. "

Iowa: Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley and Republican Mark Jacobs are seeking the seat held by retiring Senator Tom Harkin.

Louisiana: "Sen. Mary Landrieu is nearly tied with her main Republican challenger, Rep. Bill Cassidy. "

Alaska: Democratic Sen. Mark Begich faces GOP challenger, Dan Sullivan, former Natural Resources Commissioner.


http://news.yahoo.com/tidal-wave-money-could-decide-111500312.html

 

[Dotini]

Seven Senate races to watch:

Kentucky: "McConnell is expected to win the primary, but he faces a tough general election challenger, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky's Secretary of State."
http://news.yahoo.com/tidal-wave-money-could-decide-111500312.html

This is somewhat interesting.

I found the following in an article alleging Rand Paul has emerged as the GOP Presidential frontrunner:

"McConnell, meanwhile, has gotten tea-party validation to get him through a contested primary against businessman Matt Bevin. He's also benefited from Paul's swipes at former President Clinton, who is emerging as an important surrogate for McConnell's Democratic challenger, Alison Lundergan Grimes. McConnell, if he survives the general election, could become the next majority leader."

http://www.nationaljournal.com/agai...op-s-early-presidential-front-runner-20140225

 

[mheslep]

That story doesn't give any numbers to support its assertion. Each poll has a different answer. CNN has Paul ahead, PPP - Huckabee, WaPo-ABC -Paul Ryan. Jeb Bush, Christie close in all them.

 

[russ_watters]

Ted Nugent was nutty 40 years ago, and hasn't improved with time. He's also never held a public office - unlike, say James Trafficant, who is off the scale.

But how is this relevant to this year's election?

So here's a mind-boggler:

CNN is currently featuring seven, count 'em, seven Ted Nugent articles/videos/photo arrays under a big headline asking if he's the voice of America/the Republican party. Seriously, CNN?

Yeah, that's how relevant they want him to be.

 

[lisab]

CNN is currently featuring seven, count 'em, seven Ted Nugent articles/videos/photo arrays under a big headline asking if he's the voice of America/the Republican party. Seriously, CNN?

Yeah, that's how relevant they want him to be.

I think it's safe to say Ted Nugent pushes CNN's buttons! Yes, the coverage of this is over-the-top.

For the record, I think Nugent is a flaming idiot. I wonder if repeated exposure to loud, poor-quality rock music can cause traumatic brain injury?

 

[mheslep]

... Seriously, CNN?

I don't get it. Something has to give. Their ratings are on par with the guy playing for change on the street corner and still falling:

CNN lost 39% of its total primetime audience from the same month in 2013, and 35% of its primetime audience

Couple decades ago, in a situation like this the execs would have been quickly fired, the air-talent all turned over. What's wrong with Turner/Time Warner? Either they act or some oil emirate will.

 

[SteamKing]

They just dropped Piers Morgan's show. Looks like "Message received."

 

[Evo]

I think it's safe to say Ted Nugent pushes CNN's buttons! Yes, the coverage of this is over-the-top.

For the record, I think Nugent is a flaming idiot. I wonder if repeated exposure to loud, poor-quality rock music can cause traumatic brain injury?

++++1

 

[edward]

The Democrats have 21 seats to defend, and the Republicans have 15. The Republicans have to pick up 6 seats to gain control of the Senate.

Of the 21, 15 are in states where the President is polling below 50%. The Democrats therefore have to keep 10 of them - the other 6 are pretty safe. Some of those seats are more secure than others. For example, Tom Udall is wildly popular in New Mexico, even though the President is not. South Dakota, on the other hand, will be tough. Tim Johnson is retiring, and Stephanie Herseth is not running. The only other candidates who have won statewide elections are on the GOP side. (Indeed, the leading Democratic candidate, Rick Weiland, has never won an election)

Is the president's approval rating all that important considering that the approval rating of congress is only 13%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/166838/congress-job-approval-starts-2014.aspx

 

[SteamKing]

Is the president's approval rating all that important considering that the approval rating of congress is only 13%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/166838/congress-job-approval-starts-2014.aspx

If the approval rating of congress as a whole was important in elections, there would be almost no incumbents re-elected. But the congress doesn't run as a whole in the elections.

This is a situation where the voter thinks, "It's my guy in congress who is OK; the rest of these jerks need to go."

 

[SixNein]

We live in interesting times.

Yes we do.

 

[lisab]

Whoa! The second-in-command in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, Eric Cantor (R-VA), just lost his primary race to a Tea Party candidate!

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2...he_south_carolina_and_virginia_primaries.html

Now, I don't follow Virginia politics, but I sure didn't see this coming.

 

[SteamKing]

Whoa! The second-in-command in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, Eric Cantor (R-VA), just lost his primary race to a Tea Party candidate!

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2...he_south_carolina_and_virginia_primaries.html

Now, I don't follow Virginia politics, but I sure didn't see this coming.

I'm sure Rep. Cantor didn't either. He reportedly had polls which showed him with a huge lead and by all indications was expecting to cruise to another term. TITANIC, meet Iceberg.

 

[Borg]

Whoa! The second-in-command in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, Eric Cantor (R-VA), just lost his primary race to a Tea Party candidate!

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2...he_south_carolina_and_virginia_primaries.html

Now, I don't follow Virginia politics, but I sure didn't see this coming.

I have a friend in the Richmond area. I'll have to ask him what he thinks happened.

 

[mheslep]

Just heard the position of majority leader was first created in the 1890's. Since then, an incumbent has never lost the seat in a primary.

 

[Astronuc]

Montana Democrats choose new Senate candidate
http://news.yahoo.com/montana-democrats-choose-senate-candidate-143832739--election.html

HELENA, Mont. (AP) — Montana Democrats on Saturday selected a little-known state lawmaker named Amanda Curtis as their candidate for U.S. Senate after Sen. John Walsh dropped out amid plagiarism allegations from his time at the U.S. Army War College.

A math teacher! Excellent!

We need more math and science teachers in Congress - or at least, some folks with critical thinking.

 

[Astronuc]

Another independent candidate - from Kansas!

Orman has been described as a political enigma, which seems like a nice way of saying he doesn't seem to know very much. A onetime college Republican and short-lived Democratic politician (he ran for the Senate briefly in 2008 before dropping out), he's telegenic, wealthy and elusive. His central pitch is that both parties are "more interested in political games than problem-solving" and Washington is a "mess," and other evocative stuff like that.

I was having a nice, upbeat email exchange about a possible interview this week with Orman's press secretary, one Sam Edelen, until I mentioned that I planned to ask the candidate for his thoughts on some of the important issues of the day and where they might put him on the ideological spectrum. Edelen instantly went dark. I'm still waiting for a reply.

It would be nice to know where a candidate stands on various issues. Health care/insurance seems to be a key issue, as is immigration, etc.

. . . Orman probably also supports curing Ebola, ending terrorism and educating children. You can see how this differentiates him from those career politicians.

The second sentence is an interesting comment.

Another interesting observation by the author Matt Bai.

Standing outside the dysfunctional two-party system can earn you some credibility with voters at home (and with those of us who disdain the idea of party fealty generally), but it doesn't always buy you influence in an institution dominated by partisan blocs.

 

[Astronuc]

5 things to watch in Senate races Tuesday night
http://news.yahoo.com/5-things-watch-senate-races-tuesday-night-065555271--election.html

 

[Danger]

Why can't you guys just hold your elections all in one day like civilized societies do, instead of torturing yourselves incessantly?

 

[Astronuc]

In the US,

Vote today - because

"We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."

and

". . . and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth."

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

The last poll had Walker by 7pts. I think in the end Burke will make it even closer, but Walker still wins for WI.

 

[Vanadium 50]

The last poll had Walker by 7pts. I think in the end Burke will make it even closer, but Walker still wins for WI.

By 6 points.

Seven Senate races to watch:

1. Kentucky
2. Arkansas
3. North Carolina
4. Georgia
5. Iowa
   
6. Louisiana
7. Alaska

The first 5 went Republican (although NC is sufficiently close that early newsbites were forecasting a win by Hagan). Alaska has the Republican, Dan Sullivan, up by 4 points, but the Democrat, Mark Begich has not conceded, as there are a number of questioned ballots. Louisiana has 42% to Democratic incumbent Mary Landreiu, 41% to Republican Bill Cassidy, and 13% to Republican Rob Maness. This will go to a runoff in December. Maness is to the right of Cassidy, so it is not likely Landrieu will pick up many of his supporters.

I was surprised by the GOP margin in this election, which was typically about 6% above what the polls predicted. For example, all but one poll was showing Joni Ernst tied or a point ahead of Braley - she finished 8.5% ahead of him. Pat Quinn was a point or two ahead of Bruce Rauner in the Illinois governor's race - but he lost by 5%. Michelle Nunn was even or slightly ahead of David Perdue, but ended up 8% behind. What makes this more amazing is that just before the election the media was questioning whether the polls were biased in the other direction and that the Democrats would do substantially better than predicted.

In my opinion, there were two unforced errors by senior Democrats that hurt them in this election. The first was Harry Reid's policy of not bringing controversial votes to the Senate floor if he didn't already have a majority. This would have worked had the President been more popular, but given that 85% of the votes were confirmations, it allowed the Republicans to say of their opponents, "(s)he voted 99% of the time with the President." The other was President Obama's comment about those Democrats running in purple or red states as independent voices: "The Bottom Line Is Though, These Are All Folks Who Vote With Me, They Have Supported My Agenda…". Not only did this undermine their messages, saying this two weeks before the election was just about the worst possible timing.