Is the GOP Poised to Gain Control of the US Senate in 2014?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the potential for the GOP to gain control of the US Senate in the upcoming 2014 midterm elections. Participants explore various factors influencing the election, including the number of seats each party must defend, the popularity of incumbents, and the impact of external events on the campaign landscape.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that the GOP needs to pick up 6 seats to gain control of the Senate, while the Democrats have 21 seats to defend, with 15 in states where the President's approval is low.
  • There is discussion about specific Senate races, such as Kentucky, Arkansas, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, and Alaska, highlighting the dynamics of each race and the candidates involved.
  • Some participants express skepticism about the relevance of figures like Ted Nugent to the election, questioning how his actions and statements might influence public perception and congressional races.
  • Concerns are raised about the potential impact of GOP infighting, as illustrated by the censure of Senator John McCain by Arizona Republicans.
  • Participants mention the role of external funding in the elections, suggesting that significant financial contributions could sway the outcomes.
  • There is a recognition that unexpected events or missteps by either party could alter the current political landscape as the election approaches.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views on the likelihood of GOP success in the Senate, with no clear consensus on specific outcomes or the influence of individual candidates. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the overall impact of various factors on the election results.

Contextual Notes

Some participants highlight the uncertainty surrounding polling data and the varying interpretations of candidates' standings in their respective races. Additionally, the discussion reflects differing opinions on the relevance of certain political figures and events to the broader electoral context.

  • #31
Some Oregon local issues:

Yes to pot, No to illegals and GMO labeling.
The GMO battle was unreal with the amount of money spent on both side for ads in this state. It also failed in CO.

Allows possession, manufacture, sale of marijuana by/to adults, subject to state licensing, regulation, taxation Votes Percent _________________ _________________
Yes Votes
715,180 54.79%
No Votes
590,197 45.21%_________________ _________________

Totals: 1,305,377 100%

Provides Oregon resident "driver card" without requiring proof of legal presence in the United States Votes Percent _________________ _________________
Yes Votes
419,934 32.58%
No Votes
868,883 67.42%_________________ _________________

Totals: 1,288,817 100%

Requires food manufacturers, retailers to label "genetically engineered" foods as such; state, citizens may enforce Votes Percent _________________ _________________
Yes Votes
637,481 48.98%
No Votes
663,954 51.02%_________________ _________________

Totals: 1,301,435 100%
http://oregonvotes.gov/results/2014G/1415319963.html
 
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  • #32
After A Resounding GOP Victory, 6 Tidbits That Tell The Story
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...ing-gop-victory-5-tidbits-that-tell-the-story
"Just two years after Mr. Obama's re-election, the midterm results underscored just how far he has fallen in the public mind. Nearly six out of 10 voters on Tuesday expressed negative feelings about his administration, according to exit polls. For every two voters who said they had cast ballots to support Mr. Obama, three said they were voting to express their opposition to him.
"The electorate was deeply pessimistic about the country, with seven out of 10 describing the economy as not so good or poor and eight out of 10 expressing worry about the direction of the economy in the next year.
"Numbers like that discouraged Mr. Obama's aides, who said they had not done a good job getting out the president's record, noting that the deficit has fallen by half, unemployment is now below 6 percent, the price of gasoline has fallen sharply and the economy is growing at a decent rate."
An unhappy electorate is toughest on Obama and the Democrats
http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...9884a6-6465-11e4-9fdc-d43b053ecb4d_story.html
Exit polls Tuesday portrayed an electorate that, while disgruntled, was not quite as Republican in its leaning as it was four years ago, when a tidal wave of dissatisfaction gave the GOP a historic victory. But if Democrats thought that might save them, their expectations proved groundless.

Midterm Election Exit Poll: 7 Reasons Why Americans Are More Pessimistic Than Ever
https://gma.yahoo.com/midterm-election-exit-poll-7-reasons-why-americans-033502473--abc-news-topstories.html
 
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  • #33
Those aides are not helping the President or his party. "The people are wrong to be unhappy" is on the one hand, incredibly patronizing, and on the other not likely to convince voters that the President or his party will change direction from the one they are unhappy with.
 
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  • #34
Vanadium 50 said:
Those aides are not helping the President or his party. "The people are wrong to be unhappy" is on the one hand, incredibly patronizing, and on the other not likely to convince voters that the President or his party will change direction from the one they are unhappy with.
That's what yes-men are for: the boss is perfect, so if something bad happens it must have been my fault for not executing the boss's plan properly...or in this case, for not effectively educating the public on how perfect he is.
 
  • #35
You can see that the President's allies writing in The Nation and TNR are hopping mad - at the voters. How dare they not buy what we are selling! I'm sure the President reads this and thinks of Warren G. Harding: "I have no trouble with my enemies. I can take care of my enemies in a fight. But my friends, my god---n friends, they're the ones who keep me walking the floor at nights!"
 
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  • #36
Vanadium 50 said:
Those aides are not helping the President or his party. "The people are wrong to be unhappy" is on the one hand, incredibly patronizing, and on the other not likely to convince voters that the President or his party will change direction from the one they are unhappy with.

A lot like the dissatisfaction which the government of the DDR (East Germany) felt after the uprising of 17 June 1953, as expressed in a Brecht poem:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Die_Lösung

The Solution

After the uprising of the 17th of June
The Secretary of the Writers' Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?
 
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