Is the Nuclear Arms Race Making a Comeback?

[mheslep]

The discussion about NATA and Trump's thoughts on NATO are a separate subject

Yes, though there has been substantial comment from Trump and team for months on NATO, and only 140 characters on nuclear weapons, making the thread superfluous if so restricted.

 

[1oldman2]

And the dance of words continues...
http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/23/europe/putin-russia-address/index.html

(CNN)Russian President Vladimir Putin downplayed suggestions Friday there was a risk of a new nuclear arms race between Russia and the United States, shrugging off comments by US President-elect Donald Trump on Twitter as "nothing new."

Quoting Putin.
"I said that we are improving our nuclear capabilities, and that Russia is stronger (than) any potential aggressor. It (is) very important, I used that word, aggressor. I did not use it accidentally. Who is an aggressor? An aggressor is someone who can potentially attack Russia. So we are stronger than any potential aggressor."

And another quote that just may be relevant to the thread.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38409842

"Let it be an arms race because we will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all," MSNBC journalist Mika Brzezinski says the President-elect told her in a statement over the phone, in response to a question about his tweet from the day earlier.

 

[mheslep]

I disagree that NATO is obsolete

NATO is visibly useful for defense. The question of obsolescence goes to whether or not some other alliance structure could do a better job of defending the West than the one created post WWII. Is NATO a handy propeller driven aircraft in the age of jets? Often it seems, this kind of question does not get an unblinking, serious answer until after some cataclysmic war.

 

[Vanadium 50]

It may have been smarter to have scrapped NATO in 1991 and invented a new organization then, with a clear post-Cold War mandate. But that's not what we did, and it's what we have now.

Organizations often persist long after their original purpose is over. The March of Dimes was created in 1938 to end polio. Seventeen years later, there was a vaccine. Sixty-one years after that, The March of Dimes is still here.

 

[zoobyshoe]

And the dance of words continues...
http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/23/europe/putin-russia-address/index.html

(CNN)Russian President Vladimir Putin downplayed suggestions Friday there was a risk of a new nuclear arms race between Russia and the United States, shrugging off comments by US President-elect Donald Trump on Twitter as "nothing new."

Quoting Putin.
"I said that we are improving our nuclear capabilities, and that Russia is stronger (than) any potential aggressor. It (is) very important, I used that word, aggressor. I did not use it accidentally. Who is an aggressor? An aggressor is someone who can potentially attack Russia. So we are stronger than any potential aggressor."

And another quote that just may be relevant to the thread.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38409842

"Let it be an arms race because we will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all," MSNBC journalist Mika Brzezinski says the President-elect told her in a statement over the phone, in response to a question about his tweet from the day earlier.

These two follow up messages make it more likely this is Putin vs Trump nuclear chicken. Putin defines "aggressor" as "someone who can potentially attack Russia," which is distinct from saying someone who wants to attack Russia. You would expect "aggressor" to be limited to the latter category, but Putin is calling the mere ability to attack Russia an aggressive behavior. That sounds like a good foundation for an arms race.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

These two follow up messages make it more likely this is Putin vs Trump nuclear chicken. Putin defines "aggressor" as "someone who can potentially attack Russia," which is distinct from saying someone who wants to attack Russia. You would expect "aggressor" to be limited to the latter category, but Putin is calling the mere ability to attack Russia an aggressive behavior. That sounds like a good foundation for an arms race.

This is the last thing we need. The report is that Trump says let's go ahead and have an arms race because the USA will win. Putin said that he learned, as a kid growing up on the streets of Leningrad, that if you realize a fight is inevitable, you should strike first. Putin also reminds people that Russia is the only country that can destroy the USA in twenty minutes.

Putin has warned about a nuclear arms race. This is a famous speech about it. I agree totally when he says people do not seem to understand the urgency.

 

[zoobyshoe]

This is the last thing we need. The report is that Trump says let's go ahead and have an arms race because the USA will win. Putin said that he learned, as a kid growing up on the streets of Leningrad, that if you realize a fight is inevitable, you should strike first. Putin also reminds people that Russia is the only country that can destroy the USA in twenty minutes.

Putin has warned about a nuclear arms race. This is a famous speech about it. I agree totally when he says people do not seem to understand the urgency.

That video is disturbing. I hadn't seen it before.

You have a link for these statements? :

"Putin said that he learned, as a kid growing up on the streets of Leningrad, that if you realize a fight is inevitable, you should strike first. Putin also reminds people that Russia is the only country that can destroy the USA in twenty minutes."

 

[jim hardy]

Thanks Dave for posting that video of Putin's speech. I've hoped it would gain traction here in US .

This moment

is exactly what the Russian Ambassador said a couple years ago in a Charlie Rose interview, " Charlie, I can't see what's in those silos, " which struck me as pretty logical.

NATO is building missile bases right on Russia's border.
That's just what Russia did on our border in 1962. We didn't like it.
My memories of that are vivid. I was in high school in Miami. It's scary when the rail yard adjacent your neighborhood fills up with troop trains and flatcars loaded with tanks and the airport fills up with B52s .
Khrushchev was the adult in the room, defusing the situation when he sent this to JFK:

Mr. President, we and you ought not now to pull on the ends of the rope in which you have tied the knot of war, because the more the two of us pull, the tighter that knot will be tied. And a moment may come when that knot will be tied so tight that even he who tied it will not have the strength to untie it, and then it will be necessary to cut that knot, and what that would mean is not for me to explain to you, because you yourself understand perfectly of what terrible forces our countries dispose. Consequently, if there is no intention to tighten that knot and thereby to doom the world to the catastrophe of thermonuclear war, then let us not only relax the forces pulling on the ends of the rope, let us take measures to untie that knot.
http://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct26/doc4.html

Same shoe, different foot.

old jim

 

[Vanadium 50]

NATO is building missile bases right on Russia's border.

True, but misleading. These are anti-ICBM missiles. They are intended to shoot down Russian ICBMs in flight. They fire westward, not eastward.

That's just what Russia did on our border in 1962.

That's not at all what they did. They didn't install an ABM system in Cuba to intercept US ICBMs. They were first-strike capable nuclear missiles.

But let's go back to an earlier question: if the appropriate response to Russia reducing its arsenal is for the US to do the same, what is the appropriate US reaction to Russia increasing its arsenal?

 

[russ_watters]

Recall what I was responding to:

I was trying to explain why my assessment seemed "really weird" in the sense of not meaning what it seemed to imply. And that is because it was an encapsulation of Trump's 'really weird' remarks that seem to imply something, but apparently don't. I pass the cognitive dissonance on in my encapsulation without trying to sort out what he actually thinks because I don't see a clear way to do that.

I'm not interested in playing games, zooby. In discussions, I want clarity. I want to understand what others are saying and I want others to understand what I am saying. That means I give clear answers and I expect clear answers in return. If you aren't interested in the same thing, I'm not interested in having a discussion with you. So I guess we're done here.

 

[russ_watters]

It may have been smarter to have scrapped NATO in 1991 and invented a new organization then, with a clear post-Cold War mandate. But that's not what we did, and it's what we have now.

Organizations often persist long after their original purpose is over. The March of Dimes was created in 1938 to end polio. Seventeen years later, there was a vaccine. Sixty-one years after that, The March of Dimes is still here.

...and is no longer trying to end polio.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

That video is disturbing. I hadn't seen it before.

You have a link for these statements? :

"Putin said that he learned, as a kid growing up on the streets of Leningrad, that if you realize a fight is inevitable, you should strike first. Putin also reminds people that Russia is the only country that can destroy the USA in twenty minutes."

Here is the link where he talks about striking first. The context is terrorism but it makes me wonder if he would apply this to nuclear war. I get that impression based on the other video I posted.



As far as destroying the USA in twenty minutes, this story quotes him as saying half an hour or less, so I suppose my memory was slightly faulty on the exact statement. I haven't been able to track down a video where he says this.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...litary-praising-indispensable-leadership.html

 

[jim hardy]

rue, but misleading. These are anti-ICBM missiles.

No, they are missile silos that can house anything and are sold to the public as anti-nonexistent(for now) Iranian ICBMs . That's deceit.

Fortunately both sides have enough spies to know what the other is up to.

 

[zoobyshoe]

Here is the link where he talks about striking first. The context is terrorism but it makes me wonder if he would apply this to nuclear war. I get that impression based on the other video I posted.



As far as destroying the USA in twenty minutes, this story quotes him as saying half an hour or less, so I suppose my memory was slightly faulty on the exact statement. I haven't been able to track down a video where he says this.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...litary-praising-indispensable-leadership.html

Thanks much for the video and links.

In the first video you posted something that disturbed me a lot was that, in Putin's mind, an arms race had already begun before the time of the making of that video. Given the quote about striking first, and his tendency toward the most paranoid interpretation of any situation, things don't look good: volatile people in charge on both sides.

 

[zoobyshoe]

I'm not interested in playing games, zooby. In discussions, I want clarity. I want to understand what others are saying and I want others to understand what I am saying. That means I give clear answers and I expect clear answers in return. If you aren't interested in the same thing, I'm not interested in having a discussion with you. So I guess we're done here.

Now you're presenting the false dilemma that an answer is either clear or it's playing games.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma

Er...so you did intend to imply that Trump thinks we should pull out? Please be clear, Zooby: do you think Trump wants to pull out of NATO or not?

He seems conflicted. That is the simplest statement of the clearest picture I can make out. All my other remarks have been more elaborate explications of the same thing.

 

[1oldman2]

nuclear chicken

The problem with that game is until someone flinches or swerves ( https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1961-63v06/comp1 ) The entire worlds ass is on the line, I was pretty young during those days but I remember the the "Elephant" at our dinner table when my dad returned home from work on the local D.E.W. installation. (Ratheon)

a good foundation for an arms race.

Yup, foundations in place from the footers to the top of the stem wall. It appears construction season is upon us. (Pardon my crude analogies and I hope chopping up your post like that hasn't skewed the context of your post).

 

[jim hardy]

I was pretty young during those days but I remember

i

that's a good site to know about, 1oldman .

( https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1961-63v06/comp1

Those letters show what thoughtful people we had on both sides.

One should read #65 in its entirety.
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1961-63v06/d65

 

[Vanadium 50]

No, they are missile silos that can house anything

Here's a drawing of one:

Essentially it's a missile cruiser on land - without the need to make it float. And move.

It fires an SM-3 missile, which has no warhead at all. It's 20 feet tall and 21 inches wide. You simply cannot fit a Minuteman - three times as tall and three times as wide - in one of these. You could put a SM-6 in one. This has a 64 kg conventional warhead and a range of about 250 miles. The only part of Russian territory that it can possibly hit from Romania is Crimea. And that's not really NATO's fault, is it?

 

[1oldman2]

One should read #65 in its entirety.

I certainly will, Thanks.

 

[jim hardy]

You simply cannot fit a Minuteman - three times as tall and three times as wide

You no longer need a minuteman and that's their point. Even a lowly Tomahawk can go 900 nautical miles.
W80 dial-a-nuke warhead, weighs about 290 pounds.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W80_(nuclear_warhead)

One possible replacement for old Tomahawks

 

[zoobyshoe]

The problem with that game is until someone flinches or swerves ( https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1961-63v06/comp1 ) The entire worlds ass is on the line...

Exactly.

And, since neither participant is remotely as diplomatic as Khrushchev and Kennedy were, it promises to be very rough going for the general public.

Yup, foundations in place from the footers to the top of the stem wall. It appears construction season is upon us. (Pardon my crude analogies...).

I get it. There's a strong temptation to deflect anxiety with dark humor. I'm certainly tempted.

 

[mheslep]

The context is terrorism but it makes me wonder if he would apply this to nuclear war.

Would be ignorant of Putin to actually think so. Throwing the first punch is a plausible strategy for a winnable fight. This Russian government can not win a nuclear war, or any kind of direct force of arms war with the US and its allies. Even given the first several strikes, with the current US posture, Putin will lose, permanently.

One plausible strategy for an expansionist minded Putin under these circumstances, is to bluster about being a PTSD street fighter contemplating a nuclear war, and, with the aid of misinformation via Putin's intelligence services, calculate that this scares the West into infighting and some kind of unilateral disarmament. Putin might, and I know this seems like a plot for cold war spy novel, spark and support a California secession movement.

 

[mheslep]

NATO is building missile bases right on Russia's border.

C'mon, the Crimean border? The anti-missile base Deveselu, Romania is a thousand miles from Moscow.

 

[Vanadium 50]

even a lowly Tomahawk can go 900 nautical miles.

For which you don't need a fixed land-based siting. You need a ship or submarine, and back when we had GLCM's, you needed a parking lot.

The situation is very different than with Cuba in 1962. In Cuba, actual nuclear missiles and bombers (which everyone seems to forget) were deployed. Aegis Ashore does not deploy nuclear missiles. There is no present US nuclear missile that even can be deployed.

 

[Vanadium 50]

C'mon, the Crimean border? The anti-missile base Deveselu, Romania is a thousand miles from Moscow.

Cue Boris Badenov accent:

"Is far from present borders, da. But not so far from future borders, eh?"

 

[mheslep]

Even a lowly Tomahawk can go 900 nautical miles.

Cruise missiles don't need a base in Romania or anywhere else on land in eastern Europe.

 

[mheslep]

You need a ship or submarine,

Or aircraft.

 

[mheslep]

Cue Boris Badenov accent:

"Is far from present borders, da. But not so far from future borders, eh?"

Moose and Squirrel beat Boris/Natasha every time.

 

[zoobyshoe]

There is no present US nuclear missile that even can be deployed.

Meaning, there is no way to launch a missile from US soil? Or...?

 

[mheslep]

No capability to launch a ballistic missile from Romania, where the US anti-missile base recently turned on.