News Is the Nuclear Arms Race Making a Comeback?

[zoobyshoe]

No capability to launch a ballistic missile from Romania, where the US anti-missile base recently turned on.

OK. Thanks.

 

[zoobyshoe]

From today's Business Insider:

And on Friday, Trump went even further. MSNBC host Mika Brzezinski said that when she asked him if his tweet might spur other countries to increase their nuclear arsenals,he replied, "let it be an arms race."

While most experts agreed that Trump's statements about nuclear proliferation were dangerous, the Kremlin might actually be happy to rise to the challenge.

"I think Mr. Putin will be delighted," James Acton, co-director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Business Insider on Friday.

"Putin has for a long time called for strengthening Russia's nuclear deterrent remaining within the limits of arms control. But this is fantastic from his perspective because it legitimizes a lot of the dangerous and destabilizing action he'd like to do with Russia's nuclear arsenal."

A supposed military challenge from America could play well domestically in Russia, Acton said.

"From his own perspective, that's not such a bad thing," Acton said. "The Putin regime in recent years has been founded upon anti-Americanism. A threat from America is a useful thing for him to have domestically."

At the end of the day, Trump "is clearly [Putin's] man in the White House," Acton said.

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-russia-relations-2016-12

 

[1oldman2]

(Regarding post # 62)
There you see ! It's quotes like Trumps statement here that make people like myself use the wrong terms titling threads.
Seriously though, while that is a thought provoking article you have cited the problem may be larger than what's on the surface here.
Aside from the obvious technological differences (not to mention the threat to mankind in general) what I see going on here isn't much different than a couple of Bipedal Hairy Critters some 500,000 years ago scrambling for the biggest club or rock. (no reference to anyone or A. Clarke novel intended) . Both Russia and the members of NATO have to realize the futility of tossing around thousands or billions of megatons of radioactive death, there can't be any true "winners" in such a conflict, it's a power play with some very bold threats unless the wrong leader gets incredibly stupid. (not out of the realm of possibility though). Whats far more likely is that while the world has their collective eyes on the big picture something like
http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/26/middleeast/israel-pakistan-fake-news-nuclear/index.html
(CNN) - A fake news story led to threats of nuclear war between Pakistan and Israel on Christmas Eve.
In an article published by AWDNews on Tuesday December 20, former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon was quoted as threatening to destroy Pakistan if it sent troops into Syria.
Is going to come along and things will get "flaky" fast, that scares the hell out of me. I love Dr. Strangelove as a movie but I don't ever want to see the real deal go down. [/QUOTE

 

[zoobyshoe]

The way I read that quote was actually more hopeful because it suggests Putin is merely using the whole situation to consolidate and maintain his power in Russia, a kind of "There is a threat you all need to know about and I am the man who can stand up to it!," sort of thing. The most important line in the quote, as I see it, is:

"A supposed military challenge from America could play well domestically in Russia, Acton said."

In other words, whatever arms race he might instigate with the US, that is not his primary goal. The primary goal is to make himself seem indispensable to his fellow Russians. To a large extent, that's how Stalin got through WWII; as the rock hard leader who would not give way to Hitler's invading armies.

I don't know if it's true, but it's entirely plausible.

 

[1oldman2]

The way I read that quote was actually more hopeful because it suggests Putin is merely using the whole situation to consolidate and maintain his power in Russia, a kind of "There is a threat you all need to know about and I am the man who can stand up to it!," sort of thing. The most important line in the quote, as I see it, is:

"A supposed military challenge from America could play well domestically in Russia, Acton said."

In other words, whatever arms race he might instigate with the US, that is not his primary goal. The primary goal is to make himself seem indispensable to his fellow Russians. To a large extent, that's how Stalin got through WWII; as the rock hard leader who would not give way to Hitler's invading armies.

I don't know if it's true, but it's entirely plausible.

We both read that article the same, it's all about obtaining and maintaining power, (pure politics in the raw, only with larger consequences on the line).
My main focus was the threat of some minor player in the nuke club getting into a pissing match with another and dragging in the rest of the gang, That "fake new's problem is getting serious.
I should add that the particular part of the quote I was referring to was the wording,
"While most experts agreed that Trump's statements about nuclear proliferation were dangerous"
I was making light of the fact that Trump was using the term "Nuclear proliferation" in regards to the current situation, I do believe "arms race" is a much more relevant phrase after considering renaming the thread.

, that's how Stalin got through WWII; as the rock hard leader who would not give way to Hitler's invading armies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalin_and_His_Hangmen

 

[zoobyshoe]

I should add that the particular part of the quote I was referring to was the wording,
"While most experts agreed that Trump's statements about nuclear proliferation were dangerous"
I was making light of the fact that Trump was using the term "Nuclear proliferation" in regards to the current situation, I do believe "arms race" is a much more relevant phrase after considering renaming the thread.

Trump doesn't seemed to have used "nuclear proliferation," though. That was the writer's paraphrase of "arms race."

We both read that article the same, it's all about obtaining and maintaining power, (pure politics in the raw, only with larger consequences on the line).
My main focus was the threat of some minor player in the nuke club getting into a pissing match with another and dragging in the rest of the gang, That "fake new's problem is getting serious.

Yes, there's always the threat of a non-superpower initiating a first strike. Saddam Hussein said, apparently in all seriousness, if he had a nuclear weapon, he would drop it on Tel Aviv. Which is why the later report he had acquired weapons of mass destruction was enough to spur us to invade. It's also why we ride Iran. Our perception is that middle eastern potentates are more volatile than most. Then there's North Korea, perhaps the craziest of all.

The Pakistan/Israel fake new tensions remind that disasters include "perfect storm" scenarios that couldn't have been predicted. Fortunately, that one got defused pretty quickly.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

Don't worry. I'm sure the new S of D General Mad Dog will be able to calm things down. Also, I think the Russian missiles are not what they are cracked up to be. For example, the Russians say their new RS-28 Sarmat, the so-called "Satan 2", can destroy a whole country. People have mentioned Texas and France as examples. But let's look on the bright side. A single RS-28 can't destroy both Texas and France at the same time! Since they can only afford one aircraft carrier, they won't be able to afford many of those Satans. Maybe they really one have one. See, things are not so gloomy as they appear.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

Don't worry. I'm sure the new S of D General Mad Dog will be able to calm things down. Also, I think the Russian missiles are not what they are cracked up to be. For example, the Russians say their new RS-28 Sarmat, the so-called "Satan 2", can destroy a whole country. People have mentioned Texas and France as examples. But let's look on the bright side. A single RS-28 can't destroy both Texas and France at the same time! Since they can only afford one aircraft carrier, they won't be able to afford many of those Satans. Maybe they really one have one. See, things are not so gloomy as they appear.

Sorry, I meant to write "they really only have one." Also I know that Texas is not a country, at least for now. I allowed human emotion to perturb my thinking. So much for my badge of perfect logic. I will need to meditate a few more years. I hope we can all think clearly on this topic. Now it's back to tech stuff for me. Live long and prosper and happy new year to all.

 

[mheslep]

From today's Business Insider:

At the end of the day, Trump "is clearly [Putin's] man in the White House," Acton said

Im thinking the President who passively allowed Russia to annex Crimea, invade eastern Ukraine, down an airliner, bomb Sryia; the President who mocked Romney's concerns about Russian threats, and proactively canceled the planned US anti missile deployments in Europe, would be Putin's man in the White House. But that's just me.

 

[zoobyshoe]

Im thinking the President who passively allowed Russia to annex Crimea, invade eastern Ukraine, down an airliner, bomb Sryia, mock Romney's concerns about Russian threats, and proactively canceled the planned US anti missile deployments in Europe, would be Putin's man in the White House. But that's just me.

Acton is saying Trump is Putin's man in the white house when it comes to a nuclear arms race:

While most experts agreed that Trump's statements about nuclear proliferation were dangerous, the Kremlin might actually be happy to rise to the challenge.

"I think Mr. Putin will be delighted," James Acton, co-director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Business Insider on Friday.

"Putin has for a long time called for strengthening Russia's nuclear deterrent remaining within the limits of arms control. But this is fantastic from his perspective because it legitimizes a lot of the dangerous and destabilizing action he'd like to do with Russia's nuclear arsenal."

 

[mheslep]

In the era of a disgraced press, shouldn't the phrase "most [unamed] experts agree... [ambiguous, absent context blah blah blah] is dangerous" be on the editor's shall-not-use list?

 

[Robertphysics]

A few thoughts ,David Reeves I think the reason why they bought only one French aircraft carrier if I'm correct but can afford multiple last generation ICBM's like Satan2 is because western military production is largely privatized and hence comes with a larger price tag while Soviet/Russian arms factories and design bureaus are state owned /controlled and so the costs are lower because the very party to set the price is also the one buying the end product.
It's a long known fact that Russian military craft is on average almost twice as cheap as western counterparts. I'm sure China has very similar policy and implementation of their military manufacturing.As to what mheslep said about Russia losing in the end of an all out war between the west and east , well this depends on what one counts as losing. Sure Russia by any current statistical analysis has less power than the US and it's NATO allies , also in a war situation more targets would be destroyed in Russia than in the US for example but does being hit with MIRV's of thermonuclear weapons and some of the largest cities and infrastructure objects obliterated also in the US count as a victory ? You might say that Russia couldn't recover from such a war if it happened now but so I believe couldn't the US , not even taking into account things like national debt , such extensive damage as would occur in a nuclear WW3 scenario would almost entirely render most of the global markets and industry gone as would be the industry and infrastructure in the nations directly participating in such a war.

After all if a entity or a country has nuclear weapons nobody wants to engage in a war with them , much less if that country is among the 5 world's strongest military powers simply because of the consequences for the other side, heck we are scared of N Korea simply because of this because otherwise if they would simply have a conventional army no one would even raise and eyebrow.

As coming from a foreign perspective I have to agree here with mheslep that Obama administration has indeed been weak if not the weakest in US history in terms of foreign policy which has given direct bonuses to US rivals also Russia.So from such a perspective we might as well say Obama as been Putin's man. Or maybe without any conspiracy theories we could just agree that whether you like him or not Putin is a very smart and capable personality with a experienced team behind him and they simply used Obama's stance on issues to advance their own agenda as did others.
Since none of us here have any "KGB" CIA inside info on things I assume , then all we can say about inside or outside people will come with time. Time will show who Trump is and then we will judge accordingly.
As for Obama time has went by and his real intentions have become somewhat more clear , the Israel resolution in the UN recently probably showing his feelings towards Israelis and Muslims which are no wonder given his own roots and uprising.

zoobyshoe , very good observation , indeed most if not all of the peace threatening conflicts apart from WW1 and WW2 have come not from Russia or US or Europe but instead from Middle East , I too believe that there is a very high chance that the birthplace of civilization could also ironically become it's death bed.

 

[1oldman2]

Then there's North Korea, perhaps the craziest of all.

This just in... http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/27/politics/kim-jong-un-donald-trump-nuclear/index.html(CNN)Political
uncertainty in the United States and in South Korea could give North Korean leader Kim Jong-un "an apt time" to develop nuclear weapons "at all costs by the end of 2017," a high-profile North Korean diplomat who recently defected to South Korea said Tuesday.

Then of there are the "other players in the game"
http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/27/asia/china-aircraft-carrier-pacific/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/26/asia/india-icbm-test/index.html

 

[zoobyshoe]

This just in... http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/27/politics/kim-jong-un-donald-trump-nuclear/index.html(CNN)Political
uncertainty in the United States and in South Korea could give North Korean leader Kim Jong-un "an apt time" to develop nuclear weapons "at all costs by the end of 2017," a high-profile North Korean diplomat who recently defected to South Korea said Tuesday.

Then of there are the "other players in the game"
http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/27/asia/china-aircraft-carrier-pacific/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/26/asia/india-icbm-test/index.html

North Korea has recently stipulated a dual nuclear-economic development policy to be part of the ruling party's official platform, but in reality, the decision puts nuclear development at the top priority, he said.
"Following the ruling party congress in May, Kim Jong-un made it a party policy to finish nuclear development within the earliest time possible," he told the news agency.
Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said in October that it's a "lost cause" to try to get North Korea to surrender its nuclear weapons.
"They are under siege and they are very paranoid. So the notion of giving up their nuclear capability, whatever it is, is a nonstarter with them," Clapper said in remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. "The best we could probably hope for is some sort of a cap."

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/27/politics/kim-jong-un-donald-trump-nuclear/
"...very paranoid..." = worst possible state of mind to try to deal with.

India has somewhere between 100 to 120 nuclear warheads, according to the Federation of American Scientists -- more than North Korea, but less than China and a similar amount as Pakistan.
Specifically, the development is likely most worrying for China -- with a range of more than 5,000 kilometers (more than 3,100 miles) the Agni-V is India's longest-range and puts Beijing within striking distance.
Pakistan, India's historical adversary, was already in range before the Agni-V, according to IHS Jane's, a military analysis company.
Before the Agni-V and its predecessor, India's longest-range missile could barely reach mainland China, says Ajai Shukla, a former Indian army colonel and a columnist at India's Business Standard.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/26/asia/india-icbm-test/index.html
Puts Beijing within striking distance whereas before they could barely reach mainland China. So, 1oldman2, you're right. The consequences are getting worse If any of these lesser players become completely loose canons.

 

[zoobyshoe]

In the era of a disgraced press, shouldn't the phrase "most [unamed] experts agree... [ambiguous, absent context blah blah blah] is dangerous" be on the editor's shall-not-use list?

You're right. I reread the whole piece and there's no indication of what experts they're referring to or how they were polled.

That shabby lapse aside, I like the piece for the picture it paints of Putin using this situation to manipulate the people around him as opposed to actually believing the US is installing anti-nuclear defences in the region so we can go into Russia and do anything we want with no fear of nuclear retaliation. It implies there's a sane core inside all the deviousness that wouldn't launch a first strike. To maintain power without a lot of coup attempts and conspiracies against him, a dictator has to convince people he's indispensable and needs total control in order to protect them.

I don't know if it's true, I don't know how paranoid he actually is, but it struck me as plausible he's not as paranoid as he pretends to be. That it's a ploy to make those around him paranoid so they'll support his nuclear "enhancements."

 

[Robertphysics]

Are you really that worried zoobyshoe about the whole situation?

Here's what I think. Putin is an ex/active? high ranking KGB/FSB agent, he may be called many names but mentally unstable is simply not one of them.That's out of the picture. The folks who got his kind of job went through some extreme psychological tests, in other words they are mentally rugged as hell and cold blooded.

As long as no one presses the "red button" it doesn't really matter whether there is a psychopath or an extremely cold blooded manipulator at the controls because his talk and moves make the desired effect yet leave people scared and wondering ... think about it. Also the reason why we have this discussion here.

I'd say in case of Putin it's hardcore manipulation taking place maybe with some genuine hate towards the west, and it seems it works just great.
If I were you I would worry more about the likes of Kim and countries like Pakistan, Iran. I don't want to come off as racist but the mentality and history of countries largely Muslim and some Asian shows that nuclear weapons may be the last thing they need.The most dangerous folks are always those who have nothing to lose or who believe they have nothing to lose from death but only to gain from it... (insert specific religion here)

 

[Prideful]

I find it sad that Russia as a whole still thinks they need to worry about their country's continued existence enough to resort to the same ancient practices of threaten and expand. When's the last time a major country has just up and disappeared? Their stance only makes them disliked and potentially a target to be disseminated.

 

[Vanadium 50]

When's the last time a major country has just up and disappeared?

That would be the USSR in 1991.

 

[Prideful]

That would be the USSR in 1991.

They didn't disappear though, they just became something else. I mean didn't they? Am I even referring to it as a "they" correctly? I forget what the USSR actually was.

 

[Vanadium 50]

They didn't disappear though, they just became something else.

When countries disappear, they always become 'something else'. If you are requiring that they disappear and don't become anything else, I guess the best edxample is Brigadoon. Maybe Atlantis.

 

[Prideful]

When countries disappear, they always become 'something else'. If you are requiring that they disappear and don't become anything else, I guess the best edxample is Brigadoon. Maybe Atlantis.

I guess what I'm trying to say is I really don't consider the USSR disappearing as a country disappearing. The USSR is a bad example anyway, it was only a country for 69 years and was it ever really a country anyway?

 

[zoobyshoe]

Article today on Kim Jong Un:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/28/asia/north-korea-kim-jong-un-year-end-lookahead/?sr=google_news

Analysts agree that Kim is far from the unstable madman many present him to be. In fact, Ko, the former South Korean Foreign Ministry official, called the North Korean leader "cautious and calculating."
For instance, Ko said, Kim knows he can use the annual string of US-South Korean military exercises, involving thousands of troops and the latest US weaponry, to his advantage.
"He demands from his people and subordinates complete obedience to his leadership, because the country is on the verge of imminent invasion from the US and South Korea," Ko said. "He creates cohesion and unity among his people in facing the invasion."
While he keeps his people in line with talks of an impending invasion, he keeps his adversaries off balance by talking peace.
"Kim continues to pursue a peace treaty with United States," explained Bennett, the RAND expert. "And if he succeeds in getting such a treaty, it is entirely possible that US forces would be withdrawn from South Korea within a few years, likely to never return."
In other words, Kim wins if US troops get off his doorstep.

Same thing I was saying about Putin: Kim Jong Un is painting himself as the indispensable leader; the only bulwark against the vicious enemy: 'The invasion is immanent: obey me and we will prevail.'

 

[1oldman2]

the indispensable leader

This seems to be the common thread throughout history, amazingly the general public hasn't gotten around to questioning that rhetoric.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

When countries disappear, they always become 'something else'. If you are requiring that they disappear and don't become anything else, I guess the best edxample is Brigadoon. Maybe Atlantis.

Don't forget the lost continent of Mu. But in all seriousness, history is not a good guide on this question. It's only recently in world history that a major country could be wiped out in 30 minutes and rendered uninhabitable for a very long time. Look at what happened to Chernobyl and Pripyat and that was just an accident in which radiation was released. Pripyat is a ghost town even though the buildings are still there. There is an interview with Gorbachev in which he points out they were very concerned about a second explosion which would have destroyed Kiev, poisoned the water supply for a huge area, and perhaps made Europe uninhabitable.

No wonder Putin is so worried. Not only does he know what happened at Chernobyl, but as far as a country disappearing, that almost happened to the USSR. Putin's parents lived through that. Read about their experiences. Are the Russians paranoid? Look at how things changed here in the USA due to one terrorist attack that brought down a few buildings in New York. So are we paranoid? No, we have just realized we need to protect ourselves better than in the past. 9/11 was trivial compared to the destruction Russians and Europeans saw in WW2. We should not be so ready to call others paranoid until we have stood in their shoes.

At least after WW2 and 9/11 people could rebuild. But next time with nukes involved there will be no rebuilding. It will not be like Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Those were very weak bombs compared to what we have today.

Right now the most credible defense against nuclear attack is to build up your own forces so much that any attacker would know that it could be destroyed completely by your counter-attack. Even with that Mutually Assured Destruction we have been very close to nuclear war on several occasions. Quite sensibly both sides are working on defensive systems. But no one is claiming they can work 100% and unfortunately it only takes one H-bomb to destroy a city.

Sorry to sound like Cassandra but let's get real please. We all face a constant existential threat until this problem is sorted out.

 

[1oldman2]

Sadly nobody seems to care here about my remarks.

This isn't the case at all, your perspective is most important for this thread to be more than a lot of "us against them" flag waving. Your points and thoughts are a refreshing break from the news feed crap we all get sold on the average.

 

[1oldman2]

This isn't going to do much for world peace either. http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/29/politics/russia-sanctions-announced-by-white-house/index.html
I expect the usual "spirited banter" between the concerned parties to commence shortly.

Yup, right on schedule.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38464612
A spokesman for President Vladimir Putin said the Kremlin's reaction would cause the US "significant discomfort".

However, he hinted that Russia may wait until Donald Trump, who has played down the hacking claims, becomes president.

 

[1oldman2]

This may be somewhat dated however page 2 is relevant and I would imagine that line of thinking hasn't improved since it was published. (This mindset just may explain the acceptability by some leaders regarding "The bomb")
https://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0509205.pdf

 

[Prideful]

P.S. I don't think the Russians are paranoid because of the dissolution of the USSR , some of them actually wanted it ,some didn't, The satellite countries probably wanted it more for a number of advanced reasons. My parents and grandparents went through both world wars and the rise of the USSR and the fall of it , the fall of thew USSR was nothing compared with the death smell and terror of war and for those who got unlucky or did wrong stuff the purges of Stalin.

I think it is a misconception to assume Putin works out of paranoia of loosing something , i think he rather works with the idea of gaining as much as he can and using the situation , the ordinary folks , well we just live along and mind our own business as always as has been since the beginning of time.

Just to clear something up, I never used the word "sad" in relation to Russia I said I was sad they thought they had to continue ancient practices to continue being a country. Nor did I ever even use the word "paranoid", but I wouldn't consider that wrong.

Russia has always historically been a nation of "paranoia". If you've ever read any Russian history you would understand. It wasn't necessarily a bad thing in the past. Hell, it was probably a good thing back then, but it translates badly to modern times where the only way a real country will "disappear" is either by some imaginary major accident, in turn simply morphing the country into a different country or some such or the country itself choosing to include itself in a United nations of sorts.

There is no more major takeovers anymore, this is not medieval times where one nation conquers another unless perhaps we are talking very small scale nations in third world conditions. We all need to understand this and evolve for the greater good.

 

[Dembadon]

Ok he may be manipulating and using situations but then again isn't the US doing exactly the same? The NSA spying on US enemies and even allies , collecting of phone records and net search history , building billions of servers houses to store all this data , why isn't anyone calling that paranoid ?

I don't agree with "...exactly the same." Collecting phone records and internet search history is not equivalent to furthering nuclear offensive capabilities.

If you ask me it may be over the top but I see the logic behind it.

I understand "over the top" to mean "more than what is necessary". I'm not sure how something can simultaneously be "over the top" and "logical".

 

[Wminus]

Guys, there's been 5 pages of pointless arguing here. You need to understand two things:

(1) Trump expanding the offensive capabilities of the US Nuclear arsenal will not lead to a response from the Russian side, because that will not threaten the strategic balance and MAD. The US already has the capability to destroy Russia, or any other country, and expanding this capability will not change that and it won't threaten the other countries' arsenals either (due to modern sensing technology + the fact that modern nuclear launch platforms are mobile and hidden) => The media's hype is just typical BS fearmongering aimed to get more views (how anyone can trust the mainstream media anymore is beyond me btw).

(2) The only way the US can threaten the strategic balance and MAD is by trying to negate other nations' nuclear arsenals by building defensive weaponry, ie expanding the missile shields. This WOULD force Russia to respond by building better weapons and hence trigger an arms race. While this would be the wet dream of every defense contractor, hawk general and hawk politician (and the underemployed physicists in the US caught in post-doc purgatory), this is (thankfully for the world) not what Trump was proposing.

So, in conclusion, Trump was just telling everyone he likes Nukes and will protect America, ie typical Trump-talk that means nothing.

PS: It'd be nice if we could refrain from trashtalking Russia/Russian engineering/Putin etc. because clearly the level of knowledge of said topics isn't very high here. Just try to keep an open mind.