News Is the Nuclear Arms Race Making a Comeback?

[mheslep]

But that brings us back to the failure of Von Neumann's Game Theory, which is that it only works when all players are rational.

Whatever is happening so far on the US side of US-N Korea conversation, it's nothing particularly new.

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles...-bomber-over-north-korea-lands-in-south-korea

 

[1oldman2]

Whatever is happening so far on the US side of US-N Korea conversation, it's nothing particularly new.

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles...-bomber-over-north-korea-lands-in-south-korea

I hadn't heard of this particular b-1 mission, interesting. It seems "saber rattling" could get very intense as the annual war games take place in 2017, but as you stated "nothing particularly new".
http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/03/politics/north-korea-donald-trump-options/
More of the same, however #3 makes for interesting reading, #4 seems unlikely.

 

[mheslep]

hadn't heard of this particular b-1 mission

Right. An actual nuclear capable US bomber flown across the globe and over Korea, clearly in response to the latest N. Korean threat, yet with no explanation asked for or given by the President. Nothing-to-see-here-folks, page 6 at the bottom. I think that flight was some context to consider before getting too bent about Trump's tweet.

 

[russ_watters]

But that brings us back to the failure of Von Neumann's Game Theory, which is that it only works when all players are rational.

That's not an issue with this North Korea/Trump question: Kim has stated his intent (ballistic missiles) and we have to assume it is true and plan accordingly. Every indication is that he will try to follow-through and even if he didn't, it would be prudent to assume he would. I guess in that way you might say the irrationality of one of the players has to be built-in to the equation by assuming he'll certain irrational things.

Regardless of what, if anything, Trump actually intends, his options are the following:
1. Bluff, which never works.
2. Make a deal that we know Kim will violate, as he always does.
3. Airstrikes on the relevant infrastructure.

 

[1oldman2]

Right. An actual nuclear capable US bomber flown across the globe and over Korea, clearly in response to the latest N. Korean threat, yet with no explanation asked for or given by the President. Nothing-to-see-here-folks, page 6 at the bottom. I think that flight was some context to consider before getting too bent about Trump's tweet.

I see it mentioned that the b-1 has been reconfigured for conventional rather than nuclear weapons, any idea how quickly they could be returned to "nuke capable" ? (I'm pretty sure that would be classified but just wondering)

 

[mheslep]

No idea.

 

[1oldman2]

Regardless of what, if anything, Trump actually intends, his options are the following:
1. Bluff, which never works.
2. Make a deal that we know Kim will violate, as he always does.
3. Airstrikes on the relevant infrastructure.

That pretty well sums up the situation, I'm curious what China's reaction would/will be to #3. I can't remember a single case of diplomacy actually working in the case of N.K. so things are going to get "interesting" or Trump will have to do some rethinking on his tweets. (The latter doesn't seem likely.)

 

[mheslep]

...
Regardless of what, if anything, Trump actually intends, his options are the following: ...

There are other options for a country so isolated in the world.

Oct 30, 2006 - BEIJING — China cut off oil exports to North Korea in September, ...North Korea tested ballistic missiles in July, despite sharp warnings from Beijing...

That is, turn N Korea into Cuba after the Soviets fell. Cuba could barely fix its tractors, much less build nukes. To my mind, NK would be Cuba without China propping it up.

A problem with any attack on N Korean assets by an ally of S. Korea is that it invites an artillery attack on Seoul. The US could respond to an attack on Seoul, but I doubt it could be stopped before hand. Either China or S. Korea needs to stop N. Korea, so leverage needs to be applied there. Trump already plans to rework trade with China. Perhaps include another 3-5% bump in tariffs on *Chinese* trade every time NK tests a nuke?

 

[zoobyshoe]

This quote addresses my general complaint about the ambiguity of his tweets:

This also raises the issue of how much interpretation should be required for the tweets of what will soon be the most powerful man in the world.

Euan Graham, director of the international security program at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, said the world was “on the slippery slope of trying to interpret one man’s not particularly coherent tweets.” But he added that the exchange has increased the chances that North Korea could be “the first crisis out of the box” in the Trump presidency, at least in Asia.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...the-responsible-actor/?utm_term=.13ffb6e7a674

The article as a whole explores mheslep's option, that Trump can try to pressure China into doing more. The likelihood of that is indicated (for whatever an indication is worth under the circumstances) by the second Trump tweet on the subject.

 

[mfb]

Whatever is happening so far on the US side of US-N Korea conversation, it's nothing particularly new.

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles...-bomber-over-north-korea-lands-in-south-korea

Great journalism:
Tile: "U.S. Flies Supersonic B-1 Bomber over North Korea"
What actually happened is written in the text: "an unprecedented flight near North Korea [...] The flight was the closest these bombers have ever flown to the North Korean border,"
=> They did not fly over North Korea.

 

[1oldman2]

Discussion material here.
http://www.military.com/daily-news/2016/09/27/first-strike-nuclear-doctrine-wont-change-carter.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/15/opinion/end-the-first-use-policy-for-nuclear-weapons.html?_r=0
"Throughout the nuclear age, presidents have allowed their senior commanders to plan for the first use of nuclear weapons. Contingency plans were drawn to initiate first strikes to repel an invasion of Europe by the Soviet Union, defeat China and North Korea, take out chemical and biological weapons and conduct other missions".

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/06/science/obama-unlikely-to-vow-no-first-use-of-nuclear-weapons.html
"President Obama, who has weighed ruling out a first use of a nuclear weapon in a conflict, appears likely to abandon the proposal after top national security advisers argued that it could undermine allies and embolden Russia and China, according to several senior administration officials".

"But in the end, Mr. Obama seems to have sided with his current advisers, who warned in meetings culminating this summer that a no-first-use declaration would rattle allies like Japan and South Korea. Those nations are concerned about discussion of an American pullback from Asia prompted by comments made by the Republican presidential nominee, Donald J. Trump".

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/aug/1/no-first-use-nuclear-weapons-policy-a-dangerous-ob/
"No first use may sound appealing. After all, who wants to drop the big one? But unilaterally taking the first-strike option off the table would significantly lower the security of the U.S. and its allies".

 

[jim hardy]

search OPLAN s ? I'm not savvy enough to comprehend these

but it's comforting to know somebody is thinking about 'what if' scenarios and will have some semblance of a plan.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/oplan.htm
https://fas.org/blogs/security/2013/04/oplan8010-12/

 

[mfb]

There are what-if plans for everything. A US plan "how to invade Canada" made it into the news a while ago, but I guess they have plans to invade every country. Just in case it becomes important. And it is nothing US-specific: most other countries will have those plans as well.

 

[Vanadium 50]

There are what-if plans for everything.

To stretch an analogy, I have a plan for what to do if my house burns down. Doesn't mean I want it to.

 

[1oldman2]

In my own screwed-up way I seem to keep derailing the focus of this thread, my original intention was a discussion of a potential U.S./Russian nuclear buildup, as you can see I've managed to wander off onto topics like preemptive nuclear strikes, North Korean threats etc. These "side issues" (especially N.K.) are Worthy of there own threads as I'm sure the future will prove, however the U.S/Russian issue is likely to be rather slow developing (at least until Trump settles into office and plays his hand). Since the "current news" aspect is on hold for the time being I would like to post a few sites with relevant information regarding Nuclear policy, capabilities, history, etc. that may or may not be of use in future discussions. I sincerely hope the problem goes no further, if it does we can pick up this thread when its in the news again.
http://www.atomicarchive.com/index.shtml
http://www.nuclearpathways.org/browse.html
http://alsos.wlu.edu/qsearch.aspx?browse=warfare/Nuclear+Weapons+Testing
http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-weapons/basics/nuclear-stockpiles.htm
http://www.atomicarchive.com/Almanac/CISFacilities.shtml
http://www.atomicarchive.com/Almanac/USAFacilities.shtml

 

[russ_watters]

In my own screwed-up way I seem to keep derailing the focus of this thread, my original intention was a discussion of a potential U.S./Russian nuclear buildup...

While it's an important topic, it's just really speculative right now. Trump is so much about bluster that I still don't take much of what he says seriously (and I doubt he does either), so I'm in a wait and see mode.

Going to be an interesting few months...and 4 years.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

Maybe this...
View attachment 110966
Is better than this...
View attachment 110967
Just a thought.

Interesting top photo. I don't recognize it. Can you explain? The bottom one reminds me of the Tsar Bomba.

This reminds me of a technically interesting scenario I sometimes dream about, namely that a highly advanced benevolent non-nuclear power, let's say at random Germany, could develop space-based green weaponry which could simultaneously neutralize all land, sea, and air-based nuclear weapons and impose an environmentally friendly peace on Earth. Of course a few might object to such a scenario. But just think about it. It would be nice to establish Beethoven's Ode to Joy as the planetary anthem, would it not?

I think the answer to your question is yes, the top photo suggests a better future. I hope that the technology that got us into trouble during the 20th century will be supplanted by a sane defensive and offensive technology that would allow the global peacemaker to prevail. Then, to pick a place at random, people would look to Karlsruhe as the capital of a peaceful world.

P.S. this replaces any earlier American-Russian cooperation scenarios. Since this is a physics forum I want to be a realist.

:)

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

There are what-if plans for everything. A US plan "how to invade Canada" made it into the news a while ago, but I guess they have plans to invade every country. Just in case it becomes important. And it is nothing US-specific: most other countries will have those plans as well.

Actually America did invade Canada in 1812. There was talk of liberating Canada from tyranny and oppression. For example, the American army attacked York, Ontario. In retaliation, the British entered Washington, D. C. in 1814, and burned the White House.

Meanwhile, the Tsar was plotting with his ministers how to interfere in the American elections. But this was all a distraction from the sinister Chinese, who even then were plotting world domination.

I hope this clears things up for all you tech people who don't have time to study history. My information comes from the internet so it must be true.

 

[1oldman2]

While it's an important topic, it's just really speculative right now. Trump is so much about bluster that I still don't take much of what he says seriously (and I doubt he does either), so I'm in a wait and see mode.

Going to be an interesting few months...and 4 years.

Along your line of reasoning, this seems applicable. It appears the "Honeymoon" may be ending for our President elect.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...502d6751bc8_story.html?utm_term=.ab31f66df25a
"The Kremlin has good reasons to worry that the combination of two scandals - on the hacking and on the dossier - has pushed Trump into an ugly corner," Baev said. "He may conclude that since it is so hard to block the anti-Russia drive, it is far easier to take a lead on it. Makes perfect political sense, and one thing Trump is good at is making turnarounds."

 

[jim hardy]

Interesting top photo. I don't recognize it.

Looks like "Cardinal of the Kremlin" .

This post election ruckus seems right out of Tom Clancy.

 

[Bandersnatch]

I think the answer to your question is yes, the top photo suggests a better future.

The top photo depicts MIRVs from a Peacekeeper ICBM during testing at Kwajalein atoll. It's neither better nor a future.

 

[1oldman2]

The top photo depicts MIRVs from a Peacekeeper ICBM during testing at Kwajalein atoll. It's neither better nor a future.

Your absolutely correct on all counts, I posted the wrong image by mistake and didn't edit it in time. (The second image isn't the Tsar Bomba, I'm pretty sure that was a French, South Sea test).

 

[zoobyshoe]

The top photo depicts MIRVs from a Peacekeeper ICBM during testing at Kwajalein atoll. It's neither better nor a future.

Yes, and, to be explicit, each of those 'rays' represents a potential atomic warhead descending from the sky. The single missile that is launched breaks into eight independently guided parts in flight, each of which is guided to a separate target, for example: eight different cities. The Russians now have, or are claiming they have, a missile that breaks into ten (not just eight) separate parts, which is what's behind their claim they have one missile that can destroy a whole country (France-sized).

 

[mfb]

Reference for the MIRV image

I don't know where the other image comes from, probably not from wikimedia.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

The top photo depicts MIRVs from a Peacekeeper ICBM during testing at Kwajalein atoll. It's neither better nor a future.

I had no idea what is was, but it suggested to me something good, namely a simultaneous neutralization of all nuclear assets all over the globe. A sort of first strike for peace. It's just a fantasy for now. But perhaps a qualitative jump in technology could allow this to become reality. I really don't know, it's just a science fiction scenario. What would it really look like? Perhaps it would be invisible.

 

[Bandersnatch]

The Russians now have, or are claiming they have, a missile that breaks into ten (not just eight) separate parts,

Same with Peacekeeper - it was a 10-warhead missile. The picture either didn't catch all, or the test used a limited setup.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

Reference for the MIRV image

I don't know where the other image comes from, probably not from wikimedia.

Maybe this...
View attachment 110966
Is better than this...
View attachment 110967
Just a thought.

So what exactly are you asking? Which is better, MIRV vs single detonation? Or is the point that both are undesirable?

 

[mfb]

There is a non-serious proposal to disarm nuclear weapons. The downside: you need an absurdly powerful particle accelerator, and you also disarm everything around them.

 

[zoobyshoe]

Same with Peacekeeper - it was a 10-warhead missile. The picture either didn't catch all, or the test used a limited setup.

Yes, you're right:

The Peacekeeper was a MIRV missile that could carry up to 10 re-entry vehicles, each armed with a 300-kiloton W87 warhead in a Mk.21 reentry vehicle (RV). A total of 50 missiles were deployed starting in 1986, after a long and contentious development program that traced its roots into the 1960s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGM-118_Peacekeeper

And the new Russian missile doesn't actually represent an improvement in 'firepower,' so to speak, the improvement is:

But with the introduction of the Satan 2, the electronics, targeting, and reliability will noticeably improve over that of the older missile.

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-nuclear-missile-satan-2-2016-10

edit:

Its large payload would allow for up to 10 heavy warheads or 15 lighter ones or up to 24 hypersonic glide vehicles Yu-71,[4][5] or a combination of warheads and massive amounts of countermeasures designed to defeat anti-missile systems;[6][7] it was heralded by the Russian military as a response to the U.S. Prompt Global Strike.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-28_Sarmat

 

[Bebop Speaks]

What I think Presidents Trump and Putin both want is to keep their populations poor and scared. Buy more bombs and make U.S./U.S.S.R. great again is what they are saying, but what they mean is "Buy more bombs and make my corrupt friends even richer."